WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:05.700 It was a bet between a sick, twisted, malevolent entomologist masquerading as a demographic 00:05.700 --> 00:11.740 expert who called babies a disaster and was wrong about literally everything he ever predicted. 00:12.500 --> 00:17.800 And a pro-human, life-affirming economist who switched from team death to team life 00:17.800 --> 00:22.880 when he realized that the ultimate resource, that is humanity's capacity for ingenuity 00:22.880 --> 00:29.120 and adaptation, was something to be celebrated, not something to be decried as our would-be-overlords 00:29.120 --> 00:29.940 bid us do. 00:30.900 --> 00:34.200 It was a bet, in other words, between good and evil. 00:35.080 --> 00:37.440 Paul Ehrlich bet against humanity. 00:38.080 --> 00:40.720 Julian Simon bet on humanity. 00:41.820 --> 00:48.420 Now here's the awkward part for the psychopaths and twisted individuals in establishment media 00:48.420 --> 00:53.840 and academic circles who seek to curry favor with the would-be social engineers by being 00:53.840 --> 01:02.620 so against humanity, Julian Simon won the bet, and that's precisely why you've never heard 01:02.620 --> 01:02.980 about it. 01:03.580 --> 01:04.500 Let's fix that. 01:05.300 --> 01:09.340 Today on The Corbett Report, we're going to do a deep dive on the most important bet 01:09.900 --> 01:10.840 you've never heard of. 01:19.690 --> 01:22.010 You're listening to The Corbett Report. 01:30.860 --> 01:34.560 The first thing that should happen is that the president ought to say, from now here 01:34.560 --> 01:40.320 on out, no intelligent patriotic American family ought to have more than two children 01:40.320 --> 01:42.260 preferably one, if you're starting a family now. 01:42.320 --> 01:45.480 Not any law, but just say, this is what responsible people do. 01:46.020 --> 01:49.980 You ought to make the FCC see to it that large families are always treated in a negative 01:49.980 --> 01:51.800 light on television wherever they appear. 01:52.200 --> 01:55.380 There ought to be a tremendous amount of television time devoted to spot commercials, 01:55.520 --> 01:58.940 the sort we've had against smoking, but the ones in the middle say, in the middle 01:58.940 --> 02:02.140 of Beverly Hillbillies, you get a scene which shows Los Angeles in the smog, and 02:02.140 --> 02:03.700 it just says, this city has a fatal disease. 02:03.880 --> 02:06.020 It's called overpopulation, and so long. 02:07.220 --> 02:11.520 Now that sort of campaign, you could have a census, a sample census, which would see whether 02:11.520 --> 02:12.860 that was having a desired effect. 02:13.360 --> 02:16.280 If that didn't, you could move to giving women bonuses for not having babies. 02:16.440 --> 02:17.700 That almost certainly would do the job. 02:18.200 --> 02:21.640 If that didn't have the effect, then you could move to changing the tax structure 02:22.140 --> 02:25.900 so that people who had the money and had the children paid for the children. 02:25.980 --> 02:29.040 In other words, you would increase taxes on people with children rather than decrease, 02:29.220 --> 02:31.360 and since when they have the children, they require more services. 02:31.360 --> 02:35.360 If that doesn't work, then you'll have the government legislating the size of the family, 02:35.500 --> 02:36.980 and people say, oh, that's impossible. 02:37.160 --> 02:39.520 Government can never intrude and tell you how many children to have. 02:39.840 --> 02:40.380 Well, I got news. 02:40.560 --> 02:42.960 You know, it intruded a long time ago and told you how many wives you can have, 02:43.420 --> 02:46.440 and there's not the slightest question that if we don't get the population under control 02:46.440 --> 02:48.440 with voluntary means that in the not-too-distant future, 02:48.520 --> 02:50.220 the government will simply tell you how many children you can have 02:50.220 --> 02:51.560 and throw you in jail if you have too many. 02:53.040 --> 02:53.860 Welcome back, friends. 02:54.020 --> 02:55.780 Welcome back to another edition of The Corbett Report. 02:56.160 --> 02:58.400 I'm your host, James Corbett of CorbettReport.com, 02:58.400 --> 03:03.340 coming to you as always from the sunny climbs of Western Japan here in late March of 2026. 03:03.660 --> 03:06.960 With episode 496 of The Corbett Report podcast, 03:07.780 --> 03:10.020 the most important bet you've never heard of. 03:11.360 --> 03:16.840 Now, as I am sure that my well-informed listeners and viewers are well aware, 03:17.320 --> 03:25.020 that was a snippet of an interview conducted with Dr. Paul Erlich by WOITV of Ames, Iowa 03:25.020 --> 03:31.620 in April of 1970, aka that period of time, that strange and interesting period, 03:31.860 --> 03:36.440 where this otherwise obscure entomologist, aka bug scientist, 03:36.980 --> 03:42.540 was rocketing to worldwide fame on the back of the success of his 1968 03:42.540 --> 03:47.720 fear-mongering, hype-filled book of doom saying called The Population Bomb, 03:48.360 --> 03:51.800 and his subsequent appearances on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson 03:51.800 --> 03:54.320 and other media outlets. 03:54.320 --> 04:00.540 Yes, in that strange time, late 1960s, early 1970s, Paul Erlich became 04:01.120 --> 04:08.020 the government-approved establishment media-sanctioned academic superstar 04:08.020 --> 04:13.960 who was allowed to pronounce on the fate of humanity however wrong he was in those pronouncements. 04:14.100 --> 04:19.400 As I say, I'm sure that my well-informed audience is aware of Paul Erlich 04:19.400 --> 04:24.360 and his infamous career of predicting things that did not come to pass, 04:24.680 --> 04:27.960 time and time and time and time again throughout the years, 04:28.440 --> 04:34.180 but if not, you can get caught up to speed, not only with his recent death and our recent 04:34.180 --> 04:37.440 pronouncements on that in the recent edition of New World Next Week. 04:37.880 --> 04:42.920 Erlich contributes to the depopulation agenda with James Evan Pallotto of mediumonarchy.com, 04:43.380 --> 04:48.460 but of course you can also consult episode 339 of the Corbett Report podcast 04:48.460 --> 04:53.120 on Meet Paul Erlich, pseudoscience charlatan. 04:54.140 --> 04:57.880 Erlich was many things, but cautious and understated he was not. 04:58.480 --> 05:00.440 The Population Bomb opens with the lines, 05:01.220 --> 05:03.060 the battle to feed all of humanity is over. 05:03.700 --> 05:07.280 In the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to death 05:07.280 --> 05:09.980 in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. 05:10.900 --> 05:12.940 And it only got worse from there. 05:14.220 --> 05:18.380 As far as petroleum goes, you all know that where the action is there, 05:18.500 --> 05:22.040 we're running out rapidly, some estimates are it'll all be gone by the year 2000 05:22.040 --> 05:25.240 and conflict over that is getting to be rather serious. 05:26.100 --> 05:28.640 You just got to remember this, there's no way out of the arithmetic, 05:28.900 --> 05:31.240 there will never be seven billion people in the year 2000. 05:32.600 --> 05:35.720 Sometime in the next 15 years, the end will come and by the end, 05:35.740 --> 05:39.300 I mean an utter breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity. 05:41.380 --> 05:46.460 Incredibly, these predictions of doomsday are no mere aberrations in the career of an otherwise 05:46.460 --> 05:48.540 careful and understated researcher. 05:49.480 --> 05:53.620 In fact, they barely scratch the surface of the catalogue of Erlich's ridiculous 05:53.620 --> 05:57.240 and ridiculously wrong chicken little pronouncements. 05:58.220 --> 06:01.400 Speaking at the Institute of Biology in London in 1969, 06:02.220 --> 06:04.440 Erlich opined that if I were a gambler, 06:04.740 --> 06:07.920 I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000. 06:09.480 --> 06:14.480 Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make, 06:14.880 --> 06:17.100 Erlich told Mademoiselle magazine in 1970. 06:17.980 --> 06:22.000 The death rate will increase until at least 100 to 200 million people per year 06:22.000 --> 06:24.540 will be starving to death during the next 10 years. 06:25.680 --> 06:27.360 And what of the decade after that? 06:28.160 --> 06:32.100 Writing about the great die-off in the pages of the Progressive in April 1970, 06:32.700 --> 06:36.400 Erlich warned that 4 billion people would starve to death in the 1980s, 06:36.460 --> 06:38.380 including 65 million Americans. 06:39.700 --> 06:44.180 Most remarkable of all, decades of being spectacularly wrong 06:44.180 --> 06:49.560 have not stopped Erlich from continuing to spread his particularly distasteful brand of doom porn. 06:50.540 --> 06:52.660 He was back at it just this past March, 06:53.060 --> 06:58.100 assuring readers of The Guardian that overpopulation means that the collapse of civilization itself 06:58.100 --> 07:01.140 is a near certainty in the next few decades. 07:02.620 --> 07:06.180 If only Paul Erlich was an unsuccessful charlatan, 07:06.180 --> 07:10.000 barking his end of the world predictions like a madman on a street corner, 07:10.600 --> 07:13.080 it may be possible to dismiss him as a harmless crank. 07:14.260 --> 07:16.660 But rather than being shunned as a charlatan, 07:17.140 --> 07:20.600 Erlich has been embraced by the respectable scientific community. 07:21.540 --> 07:25.580 He has been awarded the Kraftward Prize from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 07:26.300 --> 07:28.960 the World Ecology Award from the University of Missouri, 07:29.500 --> 07:33.200 the Distinguished Scientist Award of the American Institute of Biological Sciences, 07:33.200 --> 07:36.560 as well as prizes and awards from the Sierra Club, 07:36.960 --> 07:40.720 the World Wildlife Fund, the United Nations and a slew of other organizations. 07:41.920 --> 07:47.280 He was awarded a MacArthur Prize Fellowship and became a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 2012. 07:48.320 --> 07:52.760 He continues to deliver lectures around the world and is still sought after for comment 07:52.760 --> 07:56.020 on population and ecology issues by mainstream media outlets, 07:56.480 --> 07:59.900 and he currently holds the position of being Professor of Population Studies 07:59.900 --> 08:02.440 of the Department of Biology at Stanford University. 08:03.320 --> 08:06.920 But none of this, not the consistently wrong predictions, 08:07.480 --> 08:10.440 not the fear mongering, not the accolades and career success, 08:11.060 --> 08:13.640 is as concerning as Erlich's ultimate solution 08:14.120 --> 08:17.720 for the problem of overpopulation that he claims to detail. 08:19.280 --> 08:21.660 Hi, my question is for Paul Erlich. 08:22.280 --> 08:25.660 Do you have any regrets about urging developed countries 08:25.660 --> 08:29.520 to use their political power to coerce vulnerable countries 08:29.520 --> 08:32.540 into drastic population control programs, 08:32.860 --> 08:35.520 having heard of the atrocities in India and China? 08:36.380 --> 08:39.580 Yes, definitely. If I were writing the, 08:39.780 --> 08:42.500 Van and I were writing the Population Bomb again today, 08:42.720 --> 08:43.540 we'd write it differently. 08:45.700 --> 08:46.900 Sometimes you make mistakes. 08:47.300 --> 08:48.360 I think that was a mistake. 08:48.540 --> 08:51.280 I don't think the recent thing that the Chinese, 08:51.440 --> 08:53.380 are you going to have a question later on the Chinese policy? 08:53.500 --> 08:54.540 No, please, you can go on. 08:54.680 --> 08:56.360 I'm not trying to censor what you're saying. 08:56.420 --> 08:56.920 No, no, no, that's all right. 08:56.920 --> 09:00.400 I think the main problem with the Chinese stopping, 09:00.520 --> 09:03.320 I think, their one child family program 09:03.960 --> 09:05.180 is the moral hazard one. 09:05.300 --> 09:06.060 That is the Chinese, 09:06.720 --> 09:09.600 it's not going to increase their family size very much. 09:10.040 --> 09:11.660 We know now that in the past, 09:11.680 --> 09:13.980 they probably would have gotten to the same place 09:13.980 --> 09:16.800 if they had not had the relatively coercive program. 09:17.100 --> 09:18.840 It's still much debated. 09:19.840 --> 09:22.760 But some of the things we did not recommend, 09:23.160 --> 09:24.680 we said these are the sorts of things 09:24.680 --> 09:26.820 that have been suggested or could be done. 09:26.920 --> 09:30.800 A good example is we said in one of our publications 09:31.260 --> 09:34.380 that it would be one of the things that might be good 09:34.380 --> 09:37.500 if you could do it safely and biologically safely 09:37.500 --> 09:40.020 would be to add something to the water supply, 09:40.300 --> 09:41.560 excuse my laryngitis, 09:41.760 --> 09:43.060 add something to the water supply, 09:43.360 --> 09:45.280 that would make you have to take an antidote 09:45.280 --> 09:46.640 before you can have a baby. 09:47.000 --> 09:49.160 And everybody said, that's just terrible, that's ghastly. 09:49.500 --> 09:49.940 Ghastly? 09:50.400 --> 09:51.900 Did it get rid of the whole abortion problem? 09:52.140 --> 09:54.000 Get rid of the whole unwanted child problem? 09:54.640 --> 09:56.260 Make people make rational decisions? 09:56.260 --> 09:59.440 It's certainly one of the things that every government 09:59.440 --> 10:00.820 must pay great attention to 10:00.820 --> 10:03.360 is the size and composition of its population. 10:03.660 --> 10:05.560 It's probably the number one thing 10:05.560 --> 10:07.200 that should be in government policy. 10:07.460 --> 10:09.240 It at least is discussed in Australia. 10:09.680 --> 10:12.500 In the United States, you can't even dare discuss it. 10:15.040 --> 10:18.220 Protestations aside, forced sterilization programs 10:18.220 --> 10:21.120 were indeed something that Erlich discussed frequently 10:21.120 --> 10:23.380 and in great detail in his early work 10:23.380 --> 10:24.500 on the population issue. 10:25.290 --> 10:27.600 That is, before the public fully realized 10:27.600 --> 10:29.780 the horrors of his ostensible solution 10:29.780 --> 10:31.520 to the population crisis. 10:32.640 --> 10:35.700 In 1969, the New York Times reported 10:35.700 --> 10:37.920 how Erlich had told the United States Commission 10:37.920 --> 10:39.020 for UNESCO that 10:39.020 --> 10:40.440 the government might have to put 10:40.440 --> 10:42.320 sterility drugs in reservoirs 10:42.320 --> 10:43.800 and in food ship to foreign countries 10:43.800 --> 10:45.300 to limit human multiplication. 10:46.160 --> 10:48.980 A 1972 article in the Boca Raton News 10:48.980 --> 10:49.960 noting this proposal, 10:50.400 --> 10:52.640 decried Erlich as worse than Hitler 10:52.640 --> 10:54.780 and pointed out how he opposed efforts 10:54.780 --> 10:56.440 to lift the Chinese out of poverty. 10:57.280 --> 10:58.960 It also quoted him as suggesting 10:58.960 --> 11:00.500 that some form of world governance 11:00.500 --> 11:02.240 was going to be necessary to institute 11:02.240 --> 11:04.260 international policy planning 11:04.260 --> 11:05.840 to save the globe. 11:07.000 --> 11:09.260 But most damning of all is Ecoscience, 11:09.640 --> 11:12.680 a 1977 textbook co-authored by Paul Erlich, 11:13.040 --> 11:15.380 his wife Anne, and John P. Holdren 11:15.380 --> 11:18.040 who would go on to become Obama's science czar. 11:18.720 --> 11:20.860 In this book, they not only double down 11:20.860 --> 11:22.260 on the idea of adding sterilence 11:22.260 --> 11:23.220 to the water supply, 11:23.540 --> 11:26.180 noting that no such sterilent exists today 11:26.180 --> 11:28.040 and lamenting that it would have to clear 11:28.040 --> 11:29.240 a number of technical hurdles 11:29.240 --> 11:30.820 in order to be acceptable, 11:31.640 --> 11:33.700 but they actually go so far as to argue 11:33.700 --> 11:36.160 the constitutionality of population control 11:36.160 --> 11:38.180 and even forced abortions, 11:38.540 --> 11:39.960 concluding that such a practice 11:39.960 --> 11:43.020 could be sustained under the existing constitution. 11:44.080 --> 11:46.240 In this book, they also greatly elaborate 11:46.240 --> 11:48.200 on the type of world governmental body 11:48.200 --> 11:49.540 that would be required to enact 11:49.540 --> 11:52.380 a truly global population control program, 11:53.260 --> 11:55.120 calling it a planetary regime, 11:55.480 --> 11:58.760 which they describe as sort of an international super agency 11:58.760 --> 12:01.260 for population resources and environment. 12:02.060 --> 12:04.280 They argue that it could control the development, 12:04.640 --> 12:06.160 administration, conservation, 12:06.800 --> 12:08.960 and distribution of all natural resources, 12:09.320 --> 12:10.860 renewable or non-renewable, 12:11.100 --> 12:13.640 at least insofar as international implications exist, 12:14.040 --> 12:15.700 including all international trade 12:15.700 --> 12:18.300 and all food on the international market. 12:19.540 --> 12:22.200 The planetary regime might be given responsibility 12:22.200 --> 12:25.000 for determining the optimum population for the world 12:25.000 --> 12:26.140 and for each region 12:26.140 --> 12:28.440 and for arbitrating various country shares 12:28.440 --> 12:29.800 within their national limits. 12:30.480 --> 12:32.020 Control of population size 12:32.020 --> 12:34.140 might remain the responsibility of each government, 12:34.480 --> 12:36.140 but the regime would have some power 12:36.140 --> 12:37.540 to enforce the agreed limits. 12:38.680 --> 12:41.220 As I say, I'm sure that my well-informed 12:41.220 --> 12:43.080 listeners and viewers already know, 12:43.480 --> 12:45.040 at least a little bit about Paul Ehrlich 12:45.040 --> 12:47.360 and his incredible track record 12:47.360 --> 12:50.420 of getting everything he ever pronounced completely, 12:50.760 --> 12:52.560 100% demonstrably wrong, 12:53.120 --> 12:56.240 and yet being lauded in the establishment media 12:56.240 --> 12:59.540 as some sort of scientific hero for doing so. 12:59.980 --> 13:02.000 But if you aren't aware of that story, 13:02.080 --> 13:03.600 then yes, please, absolutely, 13:03.900 --> 13:06.660 you should check out Episode 339 of the Corporate Report 13:06.660 --> 13:08.940 on Meet Paul Ehrlich's Pseudo-Science charlatan 13:08.940 --> 13:12.240 because I go into that story in great depth. 13:12.560 --> 13:15.980 And also introduce another character 13:15.980 --> 13:19.820 who is the other side of today's eponymous bet, 13:20.420 --> 13:22.200 namely Julian Simon, 13:22.640 --> 13:25.440 a professor of economics and business administration 13:25.440 --> 13:29.440 at the University of Illinois in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, 13:29.440 --> 13:32.720 as at the exact same time as Paul Ehrlich was operating, 13:33.140 --> 13:35.960 who, like Ehrlich, became very interested 13:35.960 --> 13:39.900 in the question of population and natural resources, 13:40.420 --> 13:44.860 and who, like Ehrlich, started from that Malthusian world view 13:44.860 --> 13:46.400 that there are too many people 13:46.400 --> 13:48.840 and we must find a way to reduce that number, 13:49.440 --> 13:51.940 but ended up coming to a very different conclusion. 13:52.840 --> 13:54.700 I came here to Washington 13:57.180 --> 14:01.060 to enlist the aid of the State Department's 14:01.740 --> 14:04.200 Agency for International Development, AID, 14:05.080 --> 14:08.380 in an experiment to pay people in India 14:08.380 --> 14:10.700 to have fewer children. 14:11.180 --> 14:13.960 Because I, as so many other people then, 14:14.460 --> 14:17.480 as almost everybody then, and as still most people now, 14:18.100 --> 14:21.260 thought that fewer people would be a good thing 14:21.260 --> 14:23.700 and that population growth was one of the great threats 14:23.700 --> 14:26.580 to humankind along with war. 14:27.660 --> 14:29.960 And as I was waiting for this appointment, 14:30.900 --> 14:36.220 I leaned over the balcony, it was a spring day, 14:36.820 --> 14:40.620 and I saw a sign pointing to the Iwo Jima Memorial. 14:41.580 --> 14:45.140 And I remembered reading about the Jewish chaplain 14:45.790 --> 14:50.860 giving a eulogy at Iwo Jima and saying, 14:51.420 --> 14:56.540 I wonder how many Mozart, Mozart's, and Einstein's, 14:58.040 --> 15:02.720 and Leonardo da Vinci's we are burying here today. 15:03.500 --> 15:05.200 That moved me when I read it, 15:05.260 --> 15:07.140 it moves me when I think about it now, 15:07.600 --> 15:08.980 and then I got to think, 15:08.980 --> 15:11.280 what am I doing in this business 15:12.140 --> 15:15.800 trying to have fewer human beings on the face of the earth, 15:16.200 --> 15:22.900 which may mean fewer Einstein's, fewer Leonardo's, and so on. 15:23.440 --> 15:26.320 So that moment was a big shock to me, yes indeed. 15:26.820 --> 15:29.540 It happened about the same time that I first came across this 15:31.160 --> 15:35.320 evidence suggesting that more human beings, 15:35.620 --> 15:37.020 more rapid population growth, 15:37.120 --> 15:38.760 did not mean poor economic development. 15:38.760 --> 15:41.000 So the two things went hand in hand. 15:42.260 --> 15:46.920 Now, hopefully my audience is aware of Julian Simon and his work, 15:46.980 --> 15:50.040 if only because I have had cause to mention it a number of times here 15:50.040 --> 15:50.940 on the Corbett Report, 15:51.300 --> 15:55.460 not only for example in the aforementioned Episode 339 of this podcast, 15:55.880 --> 15:59.160 but also in my important but often neglected questions for Corbett 15:59.160 --> 16:00.900 on are there limits to growth? 16:01.400 --> 16:02.680 So if you are interested, 16:03.000 --> 16:05.020 if you do not remember that episode, 16:05.020 --> 16:06.360 or if you didn't see it at the time, 16:06.360 --> 16:09.400 please consult the transcript for today's episode 16:09.400 --> 16:14.420 at corporatereport.com slash the bet for a link directly to that episode. 16:14.820 --> 16:16.800 But long story short, yes, 16:17.120 --> 16:19.060 Julian Simon had a very, in fact, 16:19.260 --> 16:23.420 precisely contradictory view of human population growth 16:23.420 --> 16:28.000 as compared to Paul Ehrlich and the Ehrlich's of the world generally. 16:28.760 --> 16:32.380 But if you don't know about Julian Simon or his ideas, 16:32.640 --> 16:34.980 well, you're not to be blamed for that. 16:34.980 --> 16:41.540 I suppose it isn't hard to see why Ehrlich became a media superstar 16:42.240 --> 16:45.640 and Simon was shunted off into obscurity. 16:46.240 --> 16:48.200 And there are a couple of reasons for that. 16:48.280 --> 16:53.840 First and most easily understood is that Paul Ehrlich's idea, 16:54.260 --> 16:59.240 his argument, his fundamental argument for population growth bad, 16:59.440 --> 17:03.700 is so simple that a five-year-old can understand it. 17:03.700 --> 17:05.300 I want candy. 17:06.300 --> 17:07.740 That boy ate candy. 17:08.080 --> 17:09.320 Now there's no candy. 17:09.860 --> 17:15.240 Is a very simple argument, but it is also very simplistic. 17:15.820 --> 17:19.100 Julian Simon's counter to that, however, 17:19.260 --> 17:23.340 is not at all intuitive, but is actually demonstrably correct 17:23.340 --> 17:25.080 and much more insightful. 17:25.520 --> 17:29.380 Namely, the observation that as growing population 17:29.380 --> 17:32.600 puts greater demand on various resources, 17:32.600 --> 17:36.700 the human ingenuity that is used to devise solutions 17:36.700 --> 17:38.460 to that problem of growing demand, 17:38.560 --> 17:41.600 whether that be better methods for extracting 17:41.600 --> 17:43.400 or refining or using materials 17:43.400 --> 17:45.740 or finding alternative materials, et cetera, 17:45.920 --> 17:48.920 actually leaves humanity better off 17:48.920 --> 17:51.900 than it was before that problem arose. 17:52.540 --> 17:54.880 As I say, that is not at all intuitive, 17:54.900 --> 17:56.860 but it is not only insightful. 17:57.020 --> 17:58.920 It is demonstrably correct. 17:59.560 --> 18:04.640 Any resource that you can think of is orders of magnitude 18:04.640 --> 18:07.200 cheaper for us to procure today 18:07.200 --> 18:10.940 than it was for our ancestors a century or two centuries 18:10.940 --> 18:12.460 or a millennia ago. 18:13.580 --> 18:17.840 That's again, not something that most people understand right away. 18:17.920 --> 18:19.860 It has to be explained to them. 18:20.420 --> 18:23.100 And undoubtedly, there are still those who need explanation 18:23.800 --> 18:25.520 about that, which is why you should see 18:25.520 --> 18:26.720 are their limits to growth. 18:27.300 --> 18:32.020 But the other, and perhaps even more obvious answer 18:32.020 --> 18:34.140 to why Erlich became the superstar, 18:34.580 --> 18:38.060 who was the one all the accolades and awards 18:38.060 --> 18:41.780 and was the scientist, the expert that we all had to listen to, 18:42.060 --> 18:45.380 whereas Simon is a footnote in the history of economics, 18:45.800 --> 18:48.940 is because Erlich was the mouthpiece 18:48.940 --> 18:51.940 for the psychopathic, malevolent, 18:52.080 --> 18:54.060 anti-human social engineers 18:54.060 --> 18:58.520 who want to engineer their hatred of humanity into us 18:58.520 --> 19:02.560 so that we begin to desire our own extinction. 19:03.560 --> 19:07.300 That is why Erlich became the media darling. 19:07.860 --> 19:12.020 And I guess, again, there are many things to say about this, 19:12.260 --> 19:14.600 but one thing that needs to be clarified 19:14.600 --> 19:17.800 is that me calling Erlich wrong about everything 19:17.800 --> 19:19.620 and Simon was the one who had it right 19:19.620 --> 19:23.540 is not just a matter of opinion, it's a matter of fact. 19:23.540 --> 19:28.500 And that revolves around the bet that this podcast is about. 19:28.980 --> 19:30.380 So what was that bet? 19:30.900 --> 19:33.920 How did it arise and what was the wager? 19:35.240 --> 19:38.700 The celebrity environmentalist and the little known skeptic 19:38.700 --> 19:42.180 collided directly at the end of the 1970s, 19:42.300 --> 19:44.160 ending the decade locked in a bet 19:44.160 --> 19:47.280 that would leave their legacies forever intertwined. 19:47.940 --> 19:51.300 In 1980, Simon challenged Erlich in 19:51.300 --> 19:54.120 social science quarterly to a contest 19:54.120 --> 19:57.280 that directly tested their competing visions of the future, 19:57.880 --> 20:00.700 one apocalyptic and fearful of human excess, 20:01.460 --> 20:04.620 the other optimistic and bullish about human progress. 20:05.880 --> 20:09.660 Erlich agreed to bet Simon that the cost of chromium, 20:09.980 --> 20:12.180 copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten 20:12.180 --> 20:14.380 would increase in the next decade. 20:15.120 --> 20:17.680 It was a simple thousand dollar wager, 20:17.680 --> 20:22.980 five industrial metals, ten years, prices up or down. 20:23.680 --> 20:26.960 At the same time, the bet stood for much more. 20:27.780 --> 20:30.460 Erlich thought rising metal prices would prove 20:30.460 --> 20:33.100 that population growth caused resource scarcity, 20:33.660 --> 20:36.880 bolstering his call for government-led population control 20:36.880 --> 20:39.060 and for limits on resource consumption. 20:39.920 --> 20:42.900 Erlich's conviction reflected a more general sense 20:42.900 --> 20:45.860 after the 1973 Arab oil embargo 20:45.860 --> 20:48.960 that the world risked running out of vital resources 20:48.960 --> 20:51.240 and faced hard limits to growth. 20:51.800 --> 20:54.860 Simon argued that markets and new technologies 20:54.860 --> 20:58.500 would drive prices down, proving that society 20:58.500 --> 21:00.340 did not face resource constraints 21:00.340 --> 21:03.920 and that human welfare was on a path of steady improvement. 21:04.760 --> 21:08.020 The outcome of the bet would either provide ammunition 21:08.020 --> 21:10.780 for Erlich's campaign against population growth 21:10.780 --> 21:15.000 and environmental calamity, or promote Simon's optimism 21:15.000 --> 21:18.080 about human resourcefulness through new technologies 21:18.080 --> 21:19.300 and market forces. 21:21.080 --> 21:25.020 That was a short extract from The Bet, Paul Erlich, Julian Simon, 21:25.240 --> 21:27.700 and Our Gamble Over Earth's Future by Paul Sabine, 21:27.900 --> 21:30.420 which is one of the few, if not the only, 21:30.840 --> 21:34.920 full-length manuscript-level study of The Bet 21:34.920 --> 21:36.520 between Simon and Erlich. 21:36.800 --> 21:38.660 And I bring it to your attention because 21:38.660 --> 21:41.440 it is one of the very, very few mainstream, 21:42.000 --> 21:47.040 and at least known, studies of what actually happened 21:47.040 --> 21:48.300 between Simon and Erlich. 21:48.880 --> 21:52.220 But that is not an unreserved recommendation, 21:52.220 --> 21:54.940 and there are some quibbles that one might have 21:54.940 --> 21:57.280 with this book and its fundamental bias. 21:58.000 --> 22:01.100 So on that note, I'll send you to Pierre Des Rochers 22:01.100 --> 22:05.560 of MasterResource.org and his recent re-review of that book, 22:06.000 --> 22:08.540 a re-look at The Bet, Simon, Erlich, and Paul Sabine. 22:09.080 --> 22:10.760 Definitely worth checking out. 22:10.760 --> 22:13.540 Anyway, this is one of the very, very few times 22:13.540 --> 22:14.980 that The Bet has been covered in detail. 22:15.100 --> 22:19.020 But as Des Rochers mentions, probably still the standard 22:19.020 --> 22:22.500 for This Bet and coverage of it was set of all places 22:22.500 --> 22:25.460 in the New York Times Magazine in December of 1990 22:25.460 --> 22:28.620 by John Tierney, who wrote Betting on the Planet. 22:28.820 --> 22:32.240 And the reason that this managed to get any coverage 22:32.240 --> 22:34.580 whatsoever in the establishment press, 22:34.720 --> 22:38.220 and then and only then only in the New York Times 22:38.220 --> 22:42.420 Magazine was because John Tierney was a standard 22:43.200 --> 22:47.080 establishment media repeater who, like all of the people 22:47.080 --> 22:50.060 in his class, reporting for the Epstein class 22:50.060 --> 22:52.800 and the Pennymasters of the New York Times Magazine, 22:53.120 --> 22:55.740 had the same worldview, the same malevolent, 22:55.800 --> 22:58.980 Malthusian, anti-human worldview as all of his colleagues, 22:59.280 --> 23:04.120 and was in 1985 preparing a report for some mainstream 23:04.120 --> 23:06.460 publication or other Rolling Stone or Newsweek 23:06.460 --> 23:10.340 or Atlantic Monthly or any of the other periodicals 23:10.340 --> 23:13.940 he was reporting for at the time on population growth in Kenya. 23:14.280 --> 23:17.060 And he reached out to an economist for a quote 23:17.060 --> 23:20.400 about population growth, expecting the standard quote 23:20.400 --> 23:21.480 that everyone would expect. 23:21.920 --> 23:23.900 The economist lecturing, oh, there are too many people 23:23.900 --> 23:24.960 and we're going to have to do something 23:24.960 --> 23:26.060 to reduce the population. 23:26.380 --> 23:29.440 Instead, he got Julian Simon on the other end of the line 23:29.440 --> 23:32.360 who surprised him by saying, isn't it a wonderful thing 23:32.360 --> 23:34.820 that so many people can be alive in that country today? 23:34.820 --> 23:38.860 And that struck John Tierney like a lightning bolt. 23:39.160 --> 23:42.680 And from that point on, he very much changed his tune 23:42.680 --> 23:44.960 and began reporting against the interests 23:44.960 --> 23:48.560 of the Epstein class on things like the bet. 23:48.800 --> 23:51.460 And so he was the only reporter to give any coverage 23:51.460 --> 23:55.400 of the bet and what happened with it there in December 1990 23:56.060 --> 23:57.400 as the bet finally concluded. 23:57.900 --> 24:00.680 So his way of framing this in this article 24:00.680 --> 24:03.440 was Simon offered to let anyone pick 24:03.440 --> 24:06.360 any natural resource, grain, oil, coal, timber, metals, 24:06.500 --> 24:07.860 and any future date. 24:08.440 --> 24:10.920 If the resource really were to become scarcer 24:10.920 --> 24:13.900 as the world's population grew, then its price should rise. 24:14.480 --> 24:17.180 Simon wanted to bet that the price would instead decline 24:17.760 --> 24:18.820 by the appointed date. 24:19.300 --> 24:22.040 Erlich derisively announced that he would accept 24:22.040 --> 24:25.280 Simon's astonishing offer before other greedy people jump in. 24:25.820 --> 24:29.140 He then formed a consortium with John Hart and John P. Holdren. 24:29.780 --> 24:31.720 That's a name that should ring a bell to my regular audience. 24:31.720 --> 24:34.560 Colleagues at the University of California at Berkeley 24:34.560 --> 24:37.120 specializing in energy and resource questions. 24:37.440 --> 24:42.200 In October 1980, the Erlich group bet $1,000 on five metals 24:42.200 --> 24:44.080 that they themselves chose. 24:44.640 --> 24:47.320 Chrome, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten 24:47.320 --> 24:51.520 in quantities that each cost $200 in the current market. 24:51.940 --> 24:54.400 A futures contract was drawn up obligating Simon 24:54.400 --> 24:56.300 to sell Erlich, Hart, and Holdren 24:56.300 --> 24:58.840 these same quantities of the metals 10 years later, 24:58.940 --> 25:00.800 but at 1980 prices. 25:01.440 --> 25:04.600 If the 1990 combined prices turned out to be higher 25:04.600 --> 25:08.200 than $1,000, Simon would pay them the difference in catch. 25:08.660 --> 25:10.760 If prices fell, they would pay him. 25:11.260 --> 25:13.400 The contract was signed and Erlich and Simon 25:13.400 --> 25:16.260 went on attacking each other throughout the 1980s. 25:16.540 --> 25:19.220 And so just on one economic note about what this 25:19.720 --> 25:21.520 bet was and how it was structured, 25:21.840 --> 25:24.360 please note that Simon was really putting himself 25:24.360 --> 25:28.320 on the line for absolutely any price rise to any level. 25:28.320 --> 25:31.040 So if prices rose to the point where it was 25:31.040 --> 25:32.800 a million dollars to buy those five metals, 25:32.820 --> 25:34.620 well, he'd have to pay the differences 25:34.620 --> 25:40.180 in the $999,000 difference to Erlich. 25:40.660 --> 25:42.360 But on the other side, 25:42.680 --> 25:44.700 Erlich could only be on the hook for $1,000. 25:44.940 --> 25:48.200 So if somehow the resources dropped to $0 by 1990, 25:48.580 --> 25:49.860 he would have to pay $1,000. 25:50.280 --> 25:52.080 So Simon was unlimited liability 25:52.080 --> 25:55.460 and Erlich had $1,000 liability. 25:55.460 --> 25:58.440 So it was a very, very fair and safe bet 25:58.440 --> 26:00.120 that Erlich, how could he lose? 26:00.300 --> 26:03.660 Because he knows that, I mean, hell, millions of people 26:03.660 --> 26:05.820 are tens of millions, hundreds of millions 26:05.820 --> 26:08.120 of people are going to starve to death by 1990, 26:08.120 --> 26:10.880 let alone the price of commodities. 26:11.140 --> 26:13.520 Oh yeah, you're going to try to buy commodities in 1990. 26:13.620 --> 26:15.500 Let me tell you, that's not going to work. 26:15.540 --> 26:16.980 Well, what actually happened? 26:17.160 --> 26:20.500 So after a lengthy and very voluminous 26:20.500 --> 26:23.120 detailed study here, we get to the punchline. 26:23.760 --> 26:26.140 The bet was settled this fall without ceremony. 26:26.540 --> 26:28.200 This fall, of course, indicating 1990, 26:28.580 --> 26:29.600 when this article was written, 26:30.200 --> 26:32.160 Erlich did not even bother to write a letter. 26:32.620 --> 26:35.040 He simply mailed Simon a sheet of calculations 26:35.040 --> 26:37.360 about metal prices, along with a check 26:37.360 --> 26:39.460 for $576.07. 26:40.320 --> 26:42.100 Simon wrote back a thank you note, 26:42.460 --> 26:44.380 adding that he would be willing to raise the wager 26:44.380 --> 26:46.200 to as much as $20,000, 26:46.660 --> 26:48.180 pinned to any other resource 26:48.180 --> 26:50.160 and to any other year in the future. 26:50.740 --> 26:53.320 Each of the five metals chosen by Erlich's group, 26:53.560 --> 26:55.700 when adjusted for inflation since 1980, 26:56.160 --> 26:57.460 had declined in price. 26:58.180 --> 27:00.620 The drop was so sharp, in fact, 27:01.040 --> 27:03.220 that Simon would have come out slightly ahead overall, 27:03.480 --> 27:05.560 even without the inflation adjustment 27:05.560 --> 27:06.640 called for in the bet. 27:07.160 --> 27:09.440 Prices fell for the same cornucopian reasons 27:09.440 --> 27:11.000 they had fallen in previous decades. 27:11.880 --> 27:14.280 Entrepreneurship and continuing technological improvements. 27:14.920 --> 27:16.480 Prospectors found new loads, 27:16.700 --> 27:18.380 such as the nickel mines around the market 27:18.380 --> 27:20.200 that ended at Canadian companies 27:20.200 --> 27:21.420 near monopoly of the market, 27:21.860 --> 27:25.100 around the world that ended at Canadian companies 27:25.100 --> 27:26.180 near monopoly of the market. 27:26.600 --> 27:28.100 Thanks to computers, new machines, 27:28.300 --> 27:29.280 and new chemical processes, 27:29.740 --> 27:31.160 there were more efficient ways 27:31.160 --> 27:32.980 to extract and refine the ores for chrome 27:32.980 --> 27:33.660 in the other metals. 27:34.260 --> 27:36.240 For many uses, the metals were replaced 27:36.240 --> 27:38.620 by cheaper materials, notably plastics, 27:38.940 --> 27:40.100 which became less expensive 27:40.100 --> 27:41.380 as the price of oil declined. 27:41.880 --> 27:44.060 Even during this year's crisis in the Persian Gulf, 27:44.200 --> 27:46.480 the real cost of oil remained lower than in 1980. 27:47.100 --> 27:48.980 Telephone calls went through satellites 27:48.980 --> 27:51.220 and fiber optic lines instead of copper wires. 27:51.720 --> 27:53.900 Ceramics replaced tungsten and cutting tools. 27:54.180 --> 27:55.940 Cans were made of aluminum instead of tin. 27:56.340 --> 27:59.280 And votes' fears about America going to war over tin 27:59.280 --> 28:00.700 remained unrealized. 28:01.060 --> 28:04.060 The most newsworthy event in the 1980s concerning that metal 28:04.060 --> 28:06.220 was the collapse of the international tin cartel, 28:06.360 --> 28:08.920 which gave up trying to set prices in 1985 28:08.920 --> 28:12.240 when the market became inundated with excess supplies. 28:13.220 --> 28:14.840 Is there a lesson here for the future? 28:16.160 --> 28:18.280 Absolutely not, said Ehrlich in an interview. 28:18.980 --> 28:21.680 Nevertheless, he has no plans to take up Simon's new offer. 28:22.380 --> 28:23.900 The bet doesn't mean anything. 28:24.340 --> 28:26.960 Julian Simon is like the guy who jumps off the Empire Statebuilding 28:26.960 --> 28:29.620 and says how great things are going so far 28:29.620 --> 28:31.040 as he passes the 10th floor. 28:31.580 --> 28:33.000 I still think the price of those metals 28:33.000 --> 28:35.180 will go up eventually, but that's a minor point. 28:35.600 --> 28:37.200 The resource that worries me the most 28:37.200 --> 28:39.240 is that declining capacity of our planet 28:39.240 --> 28:41.100 to buffer itself against human impacts. 28:41.440 --> 28:42.960 Look at the new problems that have come up. 28:42.960 --> 28:45.620 The ozone hole, acid rain, global warming. 28:46.100 --> 28:47.800 It's true that we've kept up food production. 28:48.200 --> 28:51.880 I underestimated how badly we'd keep on depleting 28:51.880 --> 28:53.020 our topsoil in groundwater. 28:53.680 --> 28:56.020 But I have no doubt that sometime in the next century 28:56.020 --> 28:57.940 food will be scarce enough that prices 28:57.940 --> 29:00.340 are really going to be high, even in the United States. 29:00.760 --> 29:04.240 If we get climate change and let the ecological systems 29:04.240 --> 29:05.320 keep running downhill, 29:05.320 --> 29:07.880 we could have a gigantic population crash. 29:09.120 --> 29:11.540 Simon was not surprised to hear about Ehrlich's reaction. 29:11.540 --> 29:14.740 Paul Ehrlich has never been able to learn from past experience, 29:14.860 --> 29:17.180 he said, then launched into the cornucopian line 29:17.180 --> 29:18.140 on the greenhouse crisis, 29:18.540 --> 29:20.080 how even in the unlikely event 29:20.080 --> 29:22.180 the doomsayers are right about global warming, 29:22.680 --> 29:24.820 which they're not, humanity will find some way 29:24.820 --> 29:26.300 to avert climate change or adapt, 29:26.480 --> 29:27.920 and everyone will emerge the better for it. 29:28.280 --> 29:30.120 But Simon did not get far into his argument 29:30.120 --> 29:31.740 before another cheery thought occurred to him. 29:32.000 --> 29:32.780 He stopped and smiled. 29:33.580 --> 29:36.520 So Ehrlich is talking about a population crash, he said. 29:37.080 --> 29:39.040 That sounds like an even better way to make money. 29:39.460 --> 29:41.020 I'll give him heavy odds on that one. 29:42.200 --> 29:44.820 All right, so there you have it. 29:44.940 --> 29:49.940 This is the actual result of this infamous decade long bet. 29:50.540 --> 29:52.840 And there is no doubt Simon was the winner 29:52.840 --> 29:54.820 and Ehrlich did not even have the courtesy 29:54.820 --> 29:57.640 to so much as supply a note along with the check. 29:57.820 --> 30:00.340 He just mailed a check and had done with it 30:00.340 --> 30:02.200 and never engaged Simon again 30:02.200 --> 30:04.640 because he knew he would be made full of again. 30:05.780 --> 30:07.720 If you're so sure of your convictions, 30:07.720 --> 30:11.620 I don't know, $20,000, any resource that you pick 30:11.620 --> 30:14.320 over any period of time, Paul Ehrlich, 30:14.540 --> 30:15.540 put your money where your mouth is. 30:15.580 --> 30:17.440 No, that doesn't mean anything. 30:18.020 --> 30:21.000 All right, so what does this bet really mean? 30:21.100 --> 30:22.680 What does it really prove? 30:22.800 --> 30:24.380 Does it prove anything at all? 30:24.460 --> 30:26.620 Or is it just economic hocus pocus? 30:26.920 --> 30:28.400 Well, there are arguments to be made 30:28.400 --> 30:31.980 that this is certainly not a definitive death blow 30:31.980 --> 30:35.540 to the Malthusians because they still exist, 30:36.100 --> 30:40.480 although they are one fewer in rank as of today in March of 2026. 30:40.760 --> 30:43.160 But anyway, yes, they still exist. 30:43.260 --> 30:43.800 They're still around. 30:43.920 --> 30:44.960 They're still making their arguments. 30:45.160 --> 30:46.780 How so when they lost the bet? 30:47.180 --> 30:49.080 Well, there are a number of arguments that could be made. 30:49.180 --> 30:51.360 But it is important to note that there are things 30:51.360 --> 30:53.420 that really did happen in the 1980s 30:53.420 --> 30:57.100 that really did prove the point that Simon was making 30:57.100 --> 31:00.600 and that was the underlying basis of the bet itself. 31:00.980 --> 31:05.120 For example, one can drill down on, say, 10. 31:05.120 --> 31:08.440 What did happen in the tin markets in the 1980s 31:08.440 --> 31:09.940 and what does that show us? 31:11.300 --> 31:14.800 The everyday market forces that Simon, Robert Solo, 31:15.080 --> 31:17.320 and other economists had cited in response 31:17.320 --> 31:20.320 to the limits to growth, technological innovation 31:20.320 --> 31:22.980 and substitution, price-driven competition, 31:23.620 --> 31:27.860 and new sources of supply also helped lower commodity prices. 31:28.680 --> 31:31.320 Each mineral had a slightly different story. 31:31.910 --> 31:35.860 Tin was used in the late 1970s and 1980s, 31:35.920 --> 31:38.500 largely to coat the interiors of steel containers, 31:39.040 --> 31:41.300 as well as for soldering electronic components. 31:42.000 --> 31:44.880 International tin prices depended heavily 31:44.880 --> 31:47.140 on agreements that tin-producing countries 31:47.140 --> 31:50.660 had made to limit production and sustain higher prices. 31:51.440 --> 31:54.940 During the late 1970s tin prices rose sharply. 31:55.520 --> 31:57.800 Many observers anticipated shortages. 31:58.620 --> 32:01.460 Malaysian producers sought to corner the tin market 32:01.460 --> 32:05.240 to force prices even higher in 1981 and 1982. 32:06.100 --> 32:08.260 New high-quality tin deposits discovered 32:08.260 --> 32:09.940 in the Brazilian Amazon, however, 32:10.360 --> 32:12.520 undermined this market-cornering effort. 32:13.440 --> 32:15.840 By the end of the 1980s, Brazil, 32:16.240 --> 32:18.040 a previously marginal producer, 32:18.520 --> 32:21.420 produced roughly one-quarter of the world's tin supply. 32:22.200 --> 32:24.680 At the higher prices of the late 1970s, 32:24.860 --> 32:26.980 demand for tin also started to fall. 32:27.980 --> 32:31.540 Manufacturers substituted aluminum and plastic for tin and packaging. 32:32.360 --> 32:34.400 Trying in vain to stabilize prices, 32:34.640 --> 32:36.980 the International Tin Agreement held a quarter 32:36.980 --> 32:39.500 of the world's annual tin production off the market. 32:40.320 --> 32:43.620 The International Tin Council soon ran out of money, however, 32:44.040 --> 32:45.280 and the agreement collapsed. 32:46.180 --> 32:48.060 Tin prices went into freefall, 32:48.500 --> 32:52.460 dropping more than 50% from $5.50 per pound 32:52.460 --> 32:58.060 in October 1985 to $2.50 per pound in March 1986. 32:59.060 --> 33:01.800 Overall, between 1980 and 1990, 33:02.460 --> 33:04.300 the gyrations of the tin market supported 33:04.300 --> 33:06.660 the arguments of Simon and the economists. 33:07.420 --> 33:10.040 New sources of supply, production substitution, 33:10.700 --> 33:13.700 and above all, the breaking of the tin cartel 33:13.700 --> 33:17.140 had a far greater impact than population growth on tin prices, 33:17.740 --> 33:20.920 ultimately driving them down almost 75%. 33:22.640 --> 33:25.860 So, the price of tin in the 1980s 33:25.860 --> 33:29.340 exactly reflects Simon's overall argument, 33:29.340 --> 33:31.940 that in fact, not only did it not go up 33:31.940 --> 33:34.340 because, oh my God, we're running out of tin, 33:34.820 --> 33:37.200 but in fact, the price fell dramatically 33:37.200 --> 33:39.780 because other methods were found, 33:39.920 --> 33:44.060 other resources were found for various production needs for tin, 33:44.320 --> 33:46.860 at the same time that the market cartel 33:46.860 --> 33:51.980 of trying to keep prices up through artificially limiting the supply 33:51.980 --> 33:55.540 fell apart because, oh my God, we discovered tin over here 33:55.540 --> 33:58.200 and now a producer that was completely marginal 33:58.200 --> 34:00.620 in the world economy is now a major producer of tin, 34:00.740 --> 34:02.760 so we can't keep the price down like we used to. 34:03.260 --> 34:07.340 I wonder if that applies to other resources on the planet today, 34:07.660 --> 34:08.680 like, oh, I don't know, oil? 34:09.380 --> 34:12.660 Yes, it does and that is exactly the point. 34:12.820 --> 34:16.240 Yes, cartels can function through various means 34:16.240 --> 34:18.600 of duplicity and government intervention 34:18.600 --> 34:20.840 to try to keep prices artificially up 34:20.840 --> 34:22.060 and certainly that does happen, 34:22.180 --> 34:26.300 but the point is that, yes, as the prices rise, 34:27.040 --> 34:30.680 human ingenuity will lead to ways to make that irrelevant 34:30.680 --> 34:34.880 and, again, this is, again, not an intuitive point 34:34.880 --> 34:36.080 for people to understand, 34:36.080 --> 34:37.960 so I tried to frame it in a way 34:37.960 --> 34:39.540 that maybe people can grasp it. 34:39.900 --> 34:45.240 I call it, oh my God, we're running out of whale blubber argument. 34:46.540 --> 34:48.100 I don't know if you'll show this image, 34:48.100 --> 34:51.680 but there is, obviously, a finite amount of petroleum on earth. 34:51.760 --> 34:52.600 We don't know how much, 34:53.040 --> 34:58.480 but we first begin drilling for the most easily available resources 34:58.480 --> 35:01.760 and then we expand over time with new technologies, 35:02.140 --> 35:04.400 but the mistake that people like Erlich made 35:04.400 --> 35:07.220 is to think that, well, of course, 35:07.320 --> 35:08.960 we skim the best deposits first 35:08.960 --> 35:11.920 and as a result, the price of extracting the resource 35:11.920 --> 35:14.380 will increase over time, whereas Simon 35:14.380 --> 35:16.860 and people of his mindset will point out, 35:16.860 --> 35:18.400 well, no, look at the historical data. 35:18.920 --> 35:21.640 The price is not only not going up, 35:21.700 --> 35:22.560 it's often going down, 35:22.660 --> 35:24.320 and that's because on the one hand, 35:24.400 --> 35:26.620 you've got the type of deposits that you have access to, 35:26.980 --> 35:29.100 on the other, you've got the new technologies 35:29.580 --> 35:31.180 to access those deposits, 35:31.700 --> 35:33.520 and what human history teaches us, 35:33.600 --> 35:36.020 even in the world of non-renewable resources, 35:36.480 --> 35:38.300 is that the human brain or capacity 35:38.300 --> 35:39.560 to come up with new ideas 35:39.560 --> 35:41.780 always more than make up for the fact 35:41.780 --> 35:45.480 that we're tapping into increasingly less interesting deposits, 35:45.480 --> 35:47.240 and so with new technologies, 35:47.300 --> 35:49.380 you can actually extract petroleum, 35:49.760 --> 35:52.440 which might seem more difficult 35:52.440 --> 35:53.980 to reach than previous deposits, 35:54.380 --> 35:55.560 you can access it more easily 35:55.560 --> 35:57.260 and extract it more profitably 35:57.260 --> 36:00.140 or at least at a lower cost than before, 36:00.500 --> 36:01.620 and so you must always look 36:01.620 --> 36:03.600 at the kind of physical stuff that is around you, 36:03.620 --> 36:04.600 but you must never forget 36:04.600 --> 36:06.680 the capacity of the human brain 36:06.680 --> 36:07.900 to develop technologies 36:07.900 --> 36:10.480 to tap into those resources ever more efficiently, 36:11.080 --> 36:13.720 which is why Simon referred to the human brain 36:13.720 --> 36:14.940 as the ultimate resource. 36:15.480 --> 36:18.160 Ultimately, what is around us is not what matters, 36:18.340 --> 36:21.020 you know, there was coal for long before human beings 36:21.020 --> 36:23.080 came along, natural gas, iron ore, 36:23.520 --> 36:26.180 but this physical stuff only became a resource 36:26.180 --> 36:28.820 through the development of human technologies 36:28.820 --> 36:30.480 that allow our ancestors 36:30.480 --> 36:33.060 to turn otherwise worthless stuff 36:33.060 --> 36:34.820 into things that are valuable 36:34.820 --> 36:37.500 and to do it increasingly efficiently over time, 36:37.860 --> 36:40.780 and in the context of a market economy, 36:40.920 --> 36:42.840 Simon and others will tell you, 36:43.400 --> 36:44.720 you've got a few things happening, 36:45.060 --> 36:46.220 you've got a feedback mechanism, 36:46.300 --> 36:47.500 which is the price system, 36:47.840 --> 36:49.440 which tells you that when the price 36:49.440 --> 36:51.160 of a resource temporarily goes up, 36:51.340 --> 36:52.280 you know, there might be a war, 36:52.440 --> 36:53.160 there might be a shortage, 36:53.380 --> 36:55.020 there might be a new demand 36:55.020 --> 36:56.920 for a particular resource, 36:57.400 --> 36:58.900 well, this tells people 36:58.900 --> 37:00.640 to look for more of the stuff, 37:01.200 --> 37:02.840 to use it ever more efficiently 37:02.840 --> 37:04.060 and to develop substitute, 37:04.620 --> 37:05.800 and through the combination 37:05.800 --> 37:07.660 of these three forces triggered 37:07.660 --> 37:09.120 by the price mechanism, 37:09.540 --> 37:10.740 humanity has been able 37:10.740 --> 37:12.440 to expand its resource base 37:12.840 --> 37:13.920 and after a century, 37:14.360 --> 37:15.280 after almost two centuries 37:15.280 --> 37:16.480 of industrialization, 37:16.860 --> 37:18.500 we've never not only run out 37:18.500 --> 37:22.180 of theoretically depletable resources, 37:22.600 --> 37:24.440 we've got more resources than ever before. 37:25.740 --> 37:27.000 I like to think of the 37:27.000 --> 37:28.860 air lick of the 19th century 37:29.380 --> 37:30.660 screaming from the rooftop, 37:30.880 --> 37:32.660 so no, we're running out of whale blubber, 37:32.880 --> 37:35.440 how will we heat our homes, 37:35.540 --> 37:36.480 how will we have light, 37:36.660 --> 37:37.620 oh no, it's all, 37:37.760 --> 37:38.540 we're all going to hell, 37:39.000 --> 37:41.040 and the Simons of the 19th century 37:41.040 --> 37:42.680 pointing out, well, you know that sticky stuff 37:42.680 --> 37:43.580 that keeps pouring, 37:44.020 --> 37:45.060 bubbling up out of the ground, 37:45.240 --> 37:46.660 that might be important in the future. 37:47.060 --> 37:48.320 And if I may just point out, 37:48.860 --> 37:50.320 yes, if I can just point out 37:50.320 --> 37:51.180 a little thing about that, 37:51.280 --> 37:52.800 what many Americans don't realize, 37:53.080 --> 37:53.740 and if you're listeners 37:53.740 --> 37:55.060 have not picked up on my accent, 37:55.220 --> 37:55.940 I'm French-Canadian, 37:56.380 --> 37:57.360 it was actually a Canadian 37:57.360 --> 37:58.460 that first developed heroes 37:58.460 --> 37:59.480 in other bitumen, 37:59.760 --> 38:00.980 a fellow named Abraham Gessner, 38:01.360 --> 38:03.020 he eventually moved to New York City, 38:03.020 --> 38:04.120 but I just want to point out 38:04.120 --> 38:05.600 that Canadians actually 38:05.600 --> 38:06.700 played a significant role 38:06.700 --> 38:07.440 in saving the world. 38:07.460 --> 38:08.420 And like a true Canadian, 38:08.580 --> 38:09.460 you had to point that out, 38:09.520 --> 38:10.680 so as a fellow Canadian, 38:10.840 --> 38:11.720 I understand the urge. 38:12.680 --> 38:13.480 Although I didn't know that 38:13.480 --> 38:14.400 about kerosene, interesting. 38:14.680 --> 38:14.940 All right. 38:15.040 --> 38:16.900 Well, of course, the point is 38:16.900 --> 38:18.180 that our lack of imagination 38:18.180 --> 38:19.660 can be a severe impediment 38:19.660 --> 38:21.000 to our ability to understand 38:21.000 --> 38:22.360 how the world is unfolding, 38:22.360 --> 38:23.620 and that's the point 38:23.620 --> 38:24.880 that I think Simon is pointing out, 38:24.920 --> 38:26.600 and it's a non-intuitive point. 38:26.740 --> 38:28.160 It's not immediately understandable 38:28.160 --> 38:29.060 in the way that someone 38:29.060 --> 38:30.100 like an air like getting up 38:30.100 --> 38:31.460 and saying, look, we're running out of this, 38:31.700 --> 38:32.640 therefore we're doomed, 38:32.900 --> 38:34.420 is immediately understandable 38:34.420 --> 38:35.920 and immediately appeals to people. 38:36.000 --> 38:36.780 But I think it's important 38:36.780 --> 38:38.380 to get to the underlying philosophy 38:38.380 --> 38:39.680 of air like, 38:39.760 --> 38:41.220 which as I think you mentioned, 38:41.220 --> 38:43.200 goes back to Thomas Malthus. 38:43.560 --> 38:44.480 Or even before the, 38:44.600 --> 38:46.180 it's just that in the English-speaking world, 38:46.420 --> 38:47.680 while Malthus is the best town, 38:47.940 --> 38:49.440 but the first modern Malthusian 38:49.440 --> 38:51.600 was actually an Italian Jesuit. 38:51.800 --> 38:53.440 So the current Pope is a Jesuit, 38:53.500 --> 38:54.840 so the apple didn't fall too far 38:54.840 --> 38:55.760 from the tree for that. 38:56.120 --> 38:57.720 But yes, the point is that, 38:57.840 --> 38:59.760 you know, the problem with Malthus 38:59.760 --> 39:01.080 and the name of the previous fellow 39:01.080 --> 39:01.780 was Botero, 39:01.980 --> 39:03.960 but the point is that they view the world 39:03.960 --> 39:05.960 and the view resources as a finite pie. 39:06.680 --> 39:07.560 And so, you know, 39:08.060 --> 39:09.920 how do you deal with a finite pie? 39:09.920 --> 39:12.000 Well, the less people you have, 39:12.080 --> 39:13.840 the bigger the share for each individual, right? 39:13.920 --> 39:15.000 Or at least that's their thinking. 39:15.760 --> 39:16.660 The problem that, 39:16.740 --> 39:17.500 and of course, 39:17.660 --> 39:18.820 someone like Simon 39:18.820 --> 39:21.200 will view the resources rather like a garden. 39:21.420 --> 39:21.600 You know, 39:21.900 --> 39:23.520 it's not only that you can expand your, 39:23.780 --> 39:24.800 you can plant more stuff, 39:24.820 --> 39:26.460 but you can expand your garden over time 39:26.460 --> 39:27.900 and grow ever more things. 39:29.400 --> 39:33.080 That was Pierre Des Rochers of MasterResource.org. 39:33.320 --> 39:34.920 I hope people are familiar with him 39:34.920 --> 39:38.100 because I interviewed him over a decade ago 39:38.100 --> 39:40.360 about the Simon Ehrlich bet, 39:40.580 --> 39:43.460 but also hopefully you know of his work and his writings, 39:43.640 --> 39:44.360 which you can find, 39:44.460 --> 39:45.700 again, linked in the transcript 39:45.700 --> 39:46.940 for today's episode 39:46.940 --> 39:49.640 at CorbettReport.com slash The Bet. 39:50.220 --> 39:53.700 But I hope that you are starting to understand 39:53.700 --> 39:54.620 the bigger picture, 39:54.740 --> 39:57.240 the real point that is being made here. 39:57.260 --> 39:59.920 There is much more to discuss about these points 40:00.500 --> 40:04.340 and the objections that people might have economically 40:04.340 --> 40:05.740 to the points that are being raised, 40:05.820 --> 40:06.320 for example, 40:06.320 --> 40:08.360 talking about fluctuations in markets 40:08.360 --> 40:10.680 not being relevant over, 40:10.780 --> 40:12.440 say, a 10-year period, etc. 40:12.720 --> 40:13.520 Yes, of course, 40:13.680 --> 40:16.640 and that's a point that Julian Simon himself made. 40:16.800 --> 40:17.180 For example, 40:17.300 --> 40:18.600 if you watch the full video, 40:18.780 --> 40:19.960 we watched a short clip 40:19.960 --> 40:21.880 of Julian Simon earlier in today's episode. 40:22.000 --> 40:23.180 If you go to the transcript 40:23.180 --> 40:25.140 at CorbettReport.com slash The Bet 40:25.140 --> 40:27.060 and watch the full video, 40:27.360 --> 40:29.140 you will see that he makes that precise point. 40:29.360 --> 40:32.100 People concentrating on a two-year economic trend 40:32.100 --> 40:33.380 or a five-year price trend 40:33.380 --> 40:34.460 or a 10-year trend 40:34.460 --> 40:35.460 are missing the point. 40:35.460 --> 40:39.380 No, this is about the intergenerational centuries long span 40:39.380 --> 40:41.480 where it is demonstrable 40:41.480 --> 40:44.140 that any key resource that you look at today 40:44.140 --> 40:47.500 is orders of magnitude cheaper for us 40:47.500 --> 40:49.420 than it was for our forebears 40:50.020 --> 40:51.200 hundreds of years ago 40:51.200 --> 40:52.440 or thousands of years ago. 40:52.540 --> 40:54.280 And that is the point. 40:54.940 --> 40:57.660 And I hope people can understand 40:57.660 --> 40:59.460 the deeper point that is being made here. 40:59.500 --> 41:00.940 It is not an economic point. 41:01.200 --> 41:03.880 This is not about the price of metals. 41:03.880 --> 41:06.220 It's not about monetary prices. 41:06.500 --> 41:08.160 It's about what that indicates 41:08.680 --> 41:11.440 about the availability of various resources 41:11.960 --> 41:13.560 in a growing population, 41:13.720 --> 41:16.500 in a world of a demonstrably growing human population. 41:16.820 --> 41:19.920 And yet things are easier to get than they were before. 41:20.100 --> 41:21.480 How can that possibly be? 41:21.580 --> 41:23.840 We are on a finite fixed pie. 41:24.100 --> 41:25.580 And if you take a slice of pie, 41:25.680 --> 41:27.300 that's one less slice for everyone else 41:27.300 --> 41:28.760 and we're going to run out. 41:29.360 --> 41:31.540 But that is not the case. 41:31.700 --> 41:33.800 And that is so hard to understand. 41:33.800 --> 41:36.380 I recognize that that is not an intuitive point, 41:36.440 --> 41:40.160 but it is a demonstrable, very, very important insight 41:40.160 --> 41:43.040 and one that flies directly in the face 41:43.560 --> 41:45.980 of the favorite worldview 41:46.420 --> 41:48.680 of the master manipulators of humanity, 41:48.900 --> 41:49.720 the social engineers, 41:49.880 --> 41:51.980 who make Paul Ehrlich a star 41:51.980 --> 41:55.340 for telling you that babies are a disaster, 41:55.940 --> 41:58.620 that humans are a cancer on this earth, 41:58.820 --> 42:01.540 that we need to limit the human population, 42:01.760 --> 42:03.580 that we need presidents coming in 42:03.580 --> 42:05.720 and telling the FCC 42:05.720 --> 42:09.740 that they must show programming, programming, 42:10.380 --> 42:12.600 which tells you that big families are bad 42:12.600 --> 42:14.800 and only stupid people have big families 42:14.800 --> 42:16.020 and we don't want that. 42:16.240 --> 42:17.020 We want fewer children. 42:17.400 --> 42:18.500 Well, guess what, guys? 42:18.860 --> 42:19.360 Mission accomplished. 42:19.680 --> 42:21.760 Birth rates absolutely plummeting 42:21.760 --> 42:23.500 across the entire planet. 42:23.800 --> 42:25.920 Demographic winter is upon us. 42:26.000 --> 42:27.320 The human population is shrinking 42:27.320 --> 42:29.600 and I know that many people, 42:29.720 --> 42:32.020 even in my own audience, are cheering it on. 42:32.020 --> 42:33.660 Yay! Wonderful. 42:34.020 --> 42:35.020 We need fewer people. 42:35.260 --> 42:38.680 I have decided that I don't like all these people 42:38.680 --> 42:40.560 running around living their lives 42:40.560 --> 42:43.240 on my planet taking my share of the pie. 42:43.680 --> 42:46.020 Therefore, I have decided it's a good thing 42:46.020 --> 42:48.080 that the human population is declining. 42:48.720 --> 42:51.000 Not only is that demonstrably wrong 42:51.000 --> 42:52.740 for all of the reasons we said today 42:52.740 --> 42:54.680 is demonstrably wrong for other reasons. 42:54.780 --> 42:56.520 For example, I've talked about the recent book 42:56.520 --> 42:59.800 After the Spike a few times in recent months 42:59.800 --> 43:02.300 and I would again commend that to your attention 43:02.760 --> 43:06.160 in which the authors make the very important point 43:06.160 --> 43:08.800 that there is absolutely no precedent 43:08.800 --> 43:10.200 in all of human history 43:10.200 --> 43:12.880 for a sustained, declined, plummeting birth rate 43:12.880 --> 43:14.760 going below replacement rate 43:14.760 --> 43:17.760 and then returning to some replacement rate 43:17.760 --> 43:20.780 so that we can achieve some optimal balance 43:20.780 --> 43:22.180 in the human population. 43:22.540 --> 43:25.500 I see people, even someone in my own comment section, 43:25.620 --> 43:27.720 quite recently, opining that he feels 43:27.720 --> 43:30.460 that the right number of people on the earth is 500 million. 43:30.660 --> 43:32.500 Why do we need any more than that? 43:32.780 --> 43:33.260 He asks. 43:33.880 --> 43:36.660 And no doubt those types of people cheer on 43:36.660 --> 43:37.960 the plummeting birth rates, 43:38.120 --> 43:39.620 the declining human population, 43:39.780 --> 43:42.460 thinking that we're going to just magically level out 43:42.460 --> 43:44.060 at whatever they have decided. 43:44.540 --> 43:46.740 1 billion, 2 billion, 500 million people. 43:47.040 --> 43:49.040 However many people they think there should be 43:49.040 --> 43:51.560 will just magically materialize 43:51.560 --> 43:53.720 a sudden return to replacement birth rate 43:53.720 --> 43:55.460 and everything will be fine after that. 43:55.460 --> 43:57.500 No, after the spike makes the point 43:57.500 --> 44:01.340 that once you plummet through a certain minimum population 44:01.340 --> 44:04.860 for civilizational capacity, bye-bye civilization. 44:05.240 --> 44:07.960 And we end up going back to hunter-gatherer times 44:07.960 --> 44:12.360 and nobody's fixing that with some magical, 44:12.640 --> 44:13.680 oh, we'll just level out 44:13.680 --> 44:17.420 and have today's exact standards of human population 44:18.020 --> 44:20.660 but at one-tenth of the level today. 44:20.960 --> 44:21.640 500 million. 44:21.760 --> 44:23.780 I wonder why people are so interested in that number. 44:23.780 --> 44:24.940 It couldn't possibly be 44:24.940 --> 44:26.480 because that's what the Georgia Guidestones 44:26.480 --> 44:28.200 has predictively programmed into them. 44:28.280 --> 44:28.720 What is it? 44:28.800 --> 44:31.580 The Epstein-class literally card-carrying eugenicists 44:31.580 --> 44:33.020 behind the Georgia Guidestones. 44:33.160 --> 44:34.180 Oh, you don't know that story? 44:34.560 --> 44:36.140 Well, I've talked about that in the past 44:36.140 --> 44:37.960 so I'll put that link in the transcript as well 44:37.960 --> 44:39.320 so that you can go and find out 44:39.320 --> 44:40.780 who was behind the Georgia Guidestones 44:40.780 --> 44:42.400 and why they might be interested 44:42.400 --> 44:45.460 in getting you to desire their agenda 44:45.460 --> 44:46.960 of human depopulation. 44:47.440 --> 44:48.840 That is what this is about. 44:49.220 --> 44:51.900 And that is the sick, twisted, malevolent, 44:51.900 --> 44:54.440 psychopathic, human-hating mentality 44:54.440 --> 44:57.460 that has been drilled into so much of the population. 44:58.040 --> 45:00.740 Even the population that prides themselves on, 45:00.880 --> 45:03.240 I'm not manipulate, I see through the propaganda, 45:03.580 --> 45:08.420 have adopted the Aerolik Epstein-class view of humanity. 45:08.660 --> 45:09.820 Babies are a disaster. 45:10.380 --> 45:12.380 We need fewer people on this planet. 45:13.140 --> 45:14.920 Meanwhile, the people who have been 45:14.920 --> 45:16.640 nay-saying that doomsaying 45:16.640 --> 45:19.660 and being on-team humanity, team life, 45:20.160 --> 45:22.560 have been consistently denigrated 45:22.560 --> 45:24.200 to the extent that they've received 45:24.200 --> 45:26.180 any coverage whatsoever. 45:28.600 --> 45:30.500 Well, you have two choices. 45:30.920 --> 45:32.620 Choose death or choose life. 45:33.120 --> 45:33.900 I choose life. 45:35.040 --> 45:36.120 So on that note, 45:36.520 --> 45:38.160 I think I'm going to leave the final words today 45:38.160 --> 45:39.420 to Julian Simon. 45:40.040 --> 45:43.440 Thank you for enjoying and investing your time 45:43.440 --> 45:44.700 in this exploration today. 45:45.120 --> 45:47.380 As I say, all of the transcript, 45:47.680 --> 45:49.520 the transcript, the complete hyperlink transcript 45:49.520 --> 45:50.980 with links to absolutely everything 45:50.980 --> 45:51.960 that I've talked about today 45:51.960 --> 45:54.480 is at CorbettReport.com slash The Bet, 45:54.760 --> 45:57.600 which is also the place for Corbett Report members 45:57.600 --> 45:59.900 to go log in and leave your comments 45:59.900 --> 46:01.320 on today's episode. 46:01.460 --> 46:02.600 I'm looking forward to reading them. 46:03.120 --> 46:04.880 On that note, I think I'll leave this today, 46:05.020 --> 46:07.340 but I am James Corbett of CorbettReport.com, 46:07.520 --> 46:08.900 looking forward to talking to you again 46:08.900 --> 46:10.120 in the near future. 46:13.080 --> 46:19.100 I think the attribute that distresses me most, 46:19.100 --> 46:21.740 aside from the usual ugly things of people 46:21.740 --> 46:26.040 who are bullies or exploiters, 46:26.880 --> 46:29.100 but among ordinary good people, 46:29.980 --> 46:32.060 the attribute that causes me most trouble 46:32.060 --> 46:33.560 is lack of imagination 46:34.710 --> 46:38.920 and the inability to imagine the good things 46:39.570 --> 46:42.240 that can be created by other people. 46:43.500 --> 46:46.500 This feeds into people's fear 46:47.130 --> 46:49.120 about population growth 46:49.120 --> 46:51.260 and about their fear that we are going to be 46:51.260 --> 46:53.220 running out of copper and of oil. 46:53.800 --> 46:54.900 They can't imagine 46:54.900 --> 46:58.080 so many people simply are unable to conceive 46:58.080 --> 47:00.800 how other people can respond to problems 47:01.480 --> 47:03.480 with new ideas and with imagination 47:03.480 --> 47:04.400 and with solutions, 47:04.800 --> 47:06.360 which will leave us better off 47:06.360 --> 47:07.680 than the problems had never arisen. 47:11.820 --> 47:12.440 Oil. 47:14.180 --> 47:16.740 The 19th century was transformed by it. 47:17.160 --> 47:19.420 The 20th century was shaped by it. 47:20.000 --> 47:22.340 And the 21st century is moving beyond it. 47:23.440 --> 47:25.440 But who gave birth to the oil industry? 47:26.280 --> 47:28.440 And what are they planning to do with that power 47:28.440 --> 47:30.120 in a post-carbon world? 47:37.470 --> 47:39.310 A price to carbon in their future. 47:39.650 --> 47:42.370 The negative impact of population growth, 47:42.750 --> 47:44.850 that is important not only for the planet, 47:45.050 --> 47:46.230 it is important for the business. 47:46.470 --> 47:48.910 What you see is the biggest challenges in conservation. 47:48.910 --> 47:51.310 The growing human population. 47:52.870 --> 47:55.650 How and why big oil conquered the world. 47:56.570 --> 47:59.910 Watch the documentary for free at CorbettReport.com 47:59.910 --> 48:03.250 or purchase a DVD copy at NewWorldNextWeek.com.