All right, we're back. Good morning, Doug. We're what?
you know recent use of attack ins in Russia and Ukraine, but I
Think it's
Today instead of doing that which everybody does we're gonna like to take a step back and look at the big picture
By covering this paper that I shared with you called the fate of empires and the search for survival
We'll have a link for that in the description of this video. It's 25 pages long written in 1976
And I'm shocked that I never saw this before that never before came up on my radar
Because this is the thing that this is like something that interests us a lot
Yeah, do you ever you'd never heard of it, Doug? Hmm. I don't believe I have no
But it's actually quite a good paper and he makes some excellent points and what impressed me about the paper is
That it was written 50 years ago
and
That's highly relevant today and in reading it
There are a few things that he doesn't cover which I think are worthwhile
covering and commenting about but
It's great
Yeah, I found it really useful, too
I mean, I've read a lot of books essentially trying to get this encapsulated idea and have not gotten it so
Clearly as he describes I mean you have things like the fourth turning which kind of talks about these cycles in American history
But I think that's useful for thinking but it's you know
It's only part of the story and essentially he just goes through he has a bunch of different
Empires in here that he covers that he that are included in his study. So from Assyria and Persia
Greece Alexander Roman Republic and the Roman Empire Arab Empire
Etc. Etc. So he's got a whole bunch of good things in there
And I don't I don't know where do where should we start Doug?
Should I just outline what he what are the stages or are there other comments you'd like to make about it first?
Well, let me see
You know one thing he says in the introduction because what I did is I I
Underlined a number of things in it and in his introduction to this whole thing
He has a paragraph and he says I I remember once visiting a school for mentally handicapped children
and
quote our children do not have to take examinations the headmaster told me and
So we were able to teach them things which will be really useful to them in life
And I think that's so apropos to what's going on in colleges today
it's all about
Get passing an examination so you can get your QPI and they give you a piece of paper that is a degree and
But he's quite correct
Don't have to take examinations so we're able to teach them things which are really useful to them in life anyway
interesting observation on his part early on
Well, let me let me just so there's let me just explain the stages first just I'll name them and then we'll go through them
But the he basically breaks it down into different ages. He says these empires last for
Consistently around 250 years. It's plus or minus a little bit, but 250 years seems to be it
And he said it starts off with what he calls the age of the pioneers then it goes from the to the age of conquests
to the age of commerce
age of affluence
age of intellect age of decadence and then the age of decline and collapse
and
Yeah, I mean we just say about the pioneer one first is like
You know, this is where like a culture has a lots of energy and you know, it has
It has a lot of innovation that it's not burden. It will it follows Kamala Harris's thing where you know, it's not burdened by the past
right
No, not burdened by what has been I think we're her
What was it she stole from somebody else unquestionably?
Yeah, and but it has a new energy because of it and so, you know and a lot of
Hope so it starts off as up as this pioneering stage and then you know, and then
You know, he talks about some specific he provides some specific examples in the area talks about
You know in the year
600 the world was divided between superpower groups
As it has been for the last 50 years. He's talking about between the Soviets and the rush Russia
But I'm sorry, that wasn't the line. I was talking about I want to say sorry
He talks about the Arab Empire, you know when the Arabs crossed the Straits of Gibraltar in
711 with 12,000 men that defeated the Gothic army of more than twice their strength marked straight over
250 miles of unknown enemy terrain and sees the Gothic capital of Toledo. That's this
Outburst stages pioneering stages, which is kind of and which goes into the conquest stages of overlapping
Yeah
the
You know club
Reading his his bio
He spent it appears most of his life
He was born in 1897 and he was an oral war one
But then he transplanted himself to
the Middle East to Iraq and Jordan and this is kind of interesting
It's that from 1939 to 1956 he commanded the famous Jordan Arab Legion
Which was the Jordanian army, which means that when Israel was created in
Just after World War just after World War two is when all the fighting went on
he would have been fighting against the Israelis as the head of the Jordanian army and
that's kind of non-PC in today's world, but
And he doesn't really mention that but that's kind of interesting
so he's a specialist in the Middle East actually is
what he is and
The empires that he mentions he starts with Assyria
Which lasted for 250 years and then Persia a real empire a successful empire
Started with Cyrus and ended with
Who was it the Greeks wiped out Alexander wiped out
Was it Xerxes? I think I think it was
So that was 230 years and he's got Alexander and his successors, but
He jumps over the Athenian Empire
Which really was an empire should have mentioned that in this in this list
and
Going up to modern times. He's got the Spanish Empire
But the Portuguese had kind of an empire too
kind of skated over
Then he's got Spain doesn't talk about this the
The French Empire which is a little bit different and lasted a longer time
So anyway, but these are good examples that he gives and he doesn't mention the American Empire
which of course is
is the biggest
the biggest one
In many ways, yeah, well, he does he does use the American he doesn't have that in his list
but he does talk about the American Empire and in in terms of its stage of
At least the seeds of it when it's he says, you know when it goes into this conquering stage most of the time that conquering is
externally
But for America it was conquering the vast territory
Available in America, right? So that that was their conquering
and does he mention uh that
When this was written let's say in 1975 that America was
well by some measures at its peak or close to its peak or
Just slightly past its peak. Does he have another observation on that? I don't recall
he there was some reference to uh
the wilsonian era era being like the the
The at the at this intellectual stage
The the country being at an intellectual stage then
You know where the influence kind of had already been there and so now it you know, uh,
It gone then from a fluence to intellectual
And that's where a lot of infighting begins and
Yeah, so it's kind of all downhill from world war one
And that makes sense
Western relations have been all downhill from world war one
It's just been disguised by improvements in science and technology
But culturally it's been on a slippery slope for the last hundred years
And when you look at it
In the big picture
You know the course of empire like this. Yeah, that's true. What is that famous series of paintings?
uh
I think it's what is it. It's really excellent. I think it's by john thomas cole
It's called the uh
The course of empire. I think if you're if you've seen that series. Yeah, I think
Yes
Let me see if I can
Look it on me. I think it is
mid 19th century
Yeah, it is uh, let's see. What's it called? It's
Sorry, I can't find the name of the artwork yet, but I find it's yeah, it is thomas cole though
We ought to show it to people not every not everybody's seen it, but it's very famous and very
appropriate to this and very true
All right, yes, let me uh
Yeah, because he's got the
Arcadian or past pastoral state. I think it's one stage
Yeah, is that right?
Yeah, I mean I could I could share my screen real quick and flip through them if you want me to real quick
Why not do that because I think a lot of people haven't seen them, but they're worth saying
These paintings done in the mid 19th century
Yeah, so um, yeah, that's the first one. Okay
The consummation the course of the empire
The course of the empire destruction in 1836, yeah
The savage state
I I don't think I'm doing them in order here, but
The empire desolation
Yeah, I guess that's it then the savage the savage state would have been the first one
Yes
Pastoral would be next
And then we go to
Oh
Sorry, I'm just flipping through wikipedia here, so I'm guess this is a consummation. That would have been the third right
And
The course of empire destruction
Yeah, and then
The last where's that is desolation
desolation
Exactly. Yeah, that's interesting. Yeah, it is
All right. Well, that's kind of the way the cookie crumbles
Exactly. Yeah
That is the way it works
so
And and we're part of history here in the u.s. Or well, we're an oral wife by god at the moment, but
And it is morning in america, so it's never it's never straight downhill
But as I've said before morning only lasts six hours in the real world, so
Right
Getting back to her john glub and his course of empire the stages that he's got
Does he list the stages everybody? No, I
Yeah, yeah, I read I read him off to people already
So it's age of the pioneers age of conquests age of commerce age of affluence
age of intellect
age of decadence
And then the age of decline and collapse
mm-hmm
Yeah, so I'm I'm trying to figure out the u.s. Based on that
Are we
in just in decadence or actually decline and collapse? I think we're in decline collapse. We've been in decadence for
There's for some decades, but I think we're in decline collapse at this point
Now what let's let's talk about so we talked about the pioneers and the conquest stage, you know
And he has examples where he talks about like a till of the hun in the conquest stage. You think about that
I mentioned the arab
You know crossing the Straits of Gibraltar. That's in the conquest stage
Uh after that though comes this age of commerce and I thought there were a couple interesting things about this stage, uh that
I really I didn't really understand before I guess in the way he described it was
That once you have this vast territory that's under a standard law
And it's been sort of conquered then often
Within that area at least free trade flourishes
And that causes a huge boom and whatever and you know, whatever
Empire that is
and you know, he talks about these people think of, uh, you know the globalism or
You know, this world trade is being something that's new, but it's not at all new and I mean one of his examples he uses is that
Uh, he says objects made in ireland scandinavia and china have been found in the graves or the ruins of
Of the middle east dating from a thousand years before christ
Yes
Well, so global trade's always been it's been a thing. It's and that's not new
Yeah, but of course in those days you could
If you were if you were a merchant
Uh involved in commerce, uh chances are you were what you might call a merchant adventurer
where uh
You financed your trips by becoming wealthy in the process
So you weren't an explorer per se, but you were a merchant adventurer
combination explorer and merchants kind of a concept that that i've always liked and
Marco polo right Marco polo kind of yeah exactly and
He points out that as they succeed
and become wealthy
You get into art and luxury which is natural enough
but then um
He'd go beyond that
In the age of
of
Conquest and early commerce
He says what boys are supposed to do boys are still required first of all to be manly
Well, they're not anymore. It seems to me just the opposite actually they're all soy boys and
Transgenders and and all the rest of it says
They're still required to ride shoot straight and tell the truth
which is a
I think that does that come from louis lamour, but I think louis lamour
Took that from the persian empire. That was a password in the persian empire
Oh
Straight and tell the truth shoot straight being with bow and arrow, of course
In those days and he says
It's remarkable what emphasis is placed at this stage on the manly virtue of truthfulness
For lying is cowardice the fear of facing up to a situation
Well, that's quite correct
Actually, I don't think
And and in those the virtues of truthfulness and
courage and
Being, you know, uh hardworking and all that stuff are our virtues that are essentially
Make made possible that conquest stage, right?
So, no, like they wouldn't have been able to do that if they hadn't had these characteristics like dealing with reality
You know, so they could be truthful about where the enemy positions are and what your losses were and all those things, right?
So had to be and then that carries over into the commerce area
And you know where you have you you follow certain rules and obligations commitments or whatever
That enables commerce to flourish
But you know, then people get too affluent and then the decline begins once you just get too rich, right?
I think it's I think it's natural both in individual life and in an empire and
under the age of affluence
Which comes after the commerce he says the first direction
In which wealth injures the nation is a moral one. That's so true
Money replaces honor and adventure as the objective of the best young men
In other words, we've already gotten away from
Ride shoot straight and tell the truth to
As he said money replaces
Honor and adventure as the objectives of the best young men. Yep
At least I think I can see this everywhere
So we're we're well past the age of affluence
and
another another thing he mentions in the age of affluence
He says parents and students alike seek educational qualifications, which will command the highest salaries
Yeah, got to get into harvard or equivalent so I can get a high paying corporate job. Okay. This is age of affluence stuff
Uh, and and we still see a little bit of that
But uh, and he says students
Uh, no longer attend college to acquire learning and virtue
Uh, forget about virtue. That's nobody thinks about virtue
Uh, which is ride shoot straight tell the truth and so forth
But to obtain those qualifications, which will enable them to grow rich
Okay, excellent diagnosis
From by an Englishman living in England 50 years ago very accurate
So
Yeah, and he he describes this era as the high noon
It's kind of peak of empire at this stage
Have the wealth, you know that the the orientation toward
wealth is starting to supplant
virtue and
just and and learning
And uh, and it's just about the pursuit of money says
Um, well, I guess you already said that never mind. I don't want don't want to repeat you
But yeah, and then and then it's in the next paragraph Doug Ray compares
This talks about Wilson
um
Yeah, perhaps we might add the age of Woodrow Wilson in the United States to this high noon era
Uh
Yeah, Wilson was a total
sociopath
And psychopath even certainly a scum a disastrous scumbag, but
You know
That's when he lived and so forth and it was Wilson lived in during what he calls the next stage
After the age of affluence, which is the age of intellect am I correct? Yes
So
The ambition of the young once engaged in the pursuit of adventure and military glory
Uh, then a desire for accumulation of wealth now turns to the acquisition the acquisition of academic honors
Okay, and this is once again 50 years in england. Um, this is before there was
basically, uh
Where everybody has to get a postgraduate degree
Uh
In some obscure worthless subject as often as not
Or or frankly, I I'm not a fan of MBA degrees. Uh, my wife has one
Uh, and she's also a lawyer which makes her quite intellectual actually
She actually is
But I've always felt that wait a minute the best way to learn is by doing as opposed to
Listening, which is all the they do in MBA courses. I think
When you learn a few valuable things like accounting and that but
you know
Staying in the academic room for another couple of years to get your mda which allows you to
you know
Claw up the corporate ladder
Faster and so forth. So he's right
He is right. He is right in all this
um
Yeah, it talks as in merchant in the age of intellect he talks about uh, the merchant princes of the age of commerce
Seek fame and praise not only by endowing works of art
Or patronizing music and literature
um, you know, they they also
Found and endowed colleges and universities
And one of the things he talks about in this age of intellect is interesting as he said
something like whatever happened to
Oxford and Yale and Harvard and Cambridge being enough instead
Every city needs a university and see the proliferation of these colleges all over the country. We've certainly seen that
I mean, he didn't even see the end of that. I mean in 1976. We weren't there yet
Yeah, and I don't see people going to colleges today anymore to actually learn
Things either real intellectual knowledge that helps you to figure things out more or practical knowledge
They're doing it to get a degree and you can't do some stuff without getting a degree
I think you're not even allowed to be an army officer anymore without a at least a b.a
Yeah, unless you're a warrant officer
you know the
But yeah, yeah, not a real officer. No, that's true
And I think that uh, I mean if people go to college for two reasons though
I think it's one is so they can get a job
And the second one is for
The college experience
Whatever it is exactly well, I listen even when I had my college experience
It it wasn't like in the movies about what it's supposed to be like
It was mostly frankly
get out of class
and party and
and not
And then not be able to get up in the morning for your morning classes
Or if you did because they took attendance attendance in those days still mostly
uh falling asleep during the class and
And even if you stayed awake your notes weren't good. The college experience is a fraud quite frankly. It's a fraud
It's just hanging around with other young yahoos who have the same problems that you do
lack of experience bad ideas
Being reinforced. So the college experience is is bullshit
And I'm sure a hundred years ago when high schools were teaching latin and greek as a regular thing
As opposed to today when colleges are teaching remedial reading. This is amazing actually
It's a different thing. It's
People are living in the past. It's crazy college colleges
It's not just worthless. It's worth less than nothing. It's a negative experience today in most cases. I think
Sorry for that little lecture, but that's basically what he's kind of saying
And he doesn't even factor in the cost in there, which I don't think he could have imagined
In 1976 that the cost of this education would explode in the way that it has
He couldn't have imagined it. That's right because that was still in the days
When it was possible and many people did work their way through college
Not possible today out of the question ridiculous concept. Yeah
so
So very true
anyway
Then he has a subsection here on the inadequacy of intellect and
He says the survival of the nation depends basically
Upon the loyalty and self-sacrifice of the citizens
Well, I'm I'm a big believer in loyalty
but
self-sacrifice
I don't know. Maybe listen. Maybe I'm too cynical and I don't believe that there's
Anything that you should well, this is a randomized concept. It's that
Sacrifice cannot be good. Why because it's giving up the greater good for a lesser good the way she defines sacrifice
And I don't like the idea of sacrifice quite frankly. Yeah, I understand. Maybe it's got some good
expert
We people get all triggered anytime we've talked about this in the past
But it's because they're not quite grasping
That she's defining sacrifice differently than you are currently like and so like if you were to
Take a bullet for your kids
That's not a sacrifice
That is you trading something
Trading something not as good for something
Good, you know, I mean that's sacrifice value you value your kid more than you do yourself
You say hey, I've already had my good long party the kids. Yeah. So that's not really a sacrifice when you look at it that way
Right. So that's where people get hung up on it
But they gotta think about it a little deeper and you'll see that
That the thinking around it is correct. And if you value though the community the nation, you know
What the zeitgeist the you know in
You know of the country differently than maybe you would you wouldn't see
Serving in the military or
You know
Back in the before became career politicians before you actually when you had to go serve you
You know, you that you it was a part-time job. Essentially, it didn't pay for anything and it really was
A cost to people serving as representatives in the government like
You know, I mean they didn't make money by doing it
It was it was a it was an act of public service where they thought that was of it wasn't really
By the way, we would define it. It was them doing something they thought was more valuable than them just seeking to earn a profit for themselves
You know by giving up their labor
Well, that was kind of in the days of the citizen soldier
kind of the way things were in the
the roman republic when it was
when
When it was actually considered a privilege to be
In the in the army
But it's not that way now
because
people had loyalty
To their to the republic just like we did in the early american republic because it was worth being loyal to
but
Today when things are degraded and it's not based on any sound moral concepts
I mean, how can you
Be loyal to the u.s. Government as as criminal and degraded as it's become
So of course loyalty has been washed away and the idea of self-sacrifice in the
You know kind of the classic good sense has been washed away. Yeah
And he says
The survival of the nation depends on those two things
And they're gone
So
He's right
Yeah, one of the
Let's see is it in this section or maybe it's getting into
into uh
Well, one thing I thought was interesting is that in this age of intellect
that
Um an unexpected symptom he talks about shows up and of national decline
Is the intensification of internal political hatreds
So it's like now that you're affluent
And now there's a there's value a lot of value placed on education
then
There there seem to be a lot of talking heads that pop up
You know and political dissent is created by lots of discussion about
Really attacking the core, you know just the criticisms around that says talking heads
sort of end up
Undermining it also or accelerating the decline
That's that's an excellent point because you know if uh
if if Woody Allen
Had to load 16 tons in a coal mine every day
He wouldn't have time to go home and direction wine and and and complain so
When you reach an age of affluence and intellectualism. Yeah, that's what you do
Yeah, you criticize everything
So, yeah
It's right about the the Byzantines spent the last 50 years of their history fighting
Uh one another in repeated civil wars until the Ottomans moved in and administered the Coup de Grasse
Yep, so they had enemies all around them, but really they spent the entire time fighting with themselves
Yeah, and that certainly happened more and more with the Roman Empire as it got older
One general would try to take over and they'd
You know
Try to kill him and destroy a bunch of capital and a whole bunch of soldiers and burn cities down
And it was all internal forget about the the barbarians to the north
And the Parthians to the east they they really were destroying themselves
One of the things about destroying themselves he talks about is
Apparently, this is a common stage is the influx of foreigners
He said the you know oft repeated phenomena of great empires is the influx of foreigners to the capital city
Talks about Roman historians is complaining about the number of Asians and Africans in Rome
Baghdad in its prime in the ninth century
Was international in its population Persians Turks Arabs Armenians Egyptians Africans and Greeks all mingled in the streets
And then he talks about today. He says in London
And this is again in 1976
Yeah, and those aren't the only examples either. I mean
was true of Rome and then
Uh, it was true of Alexandria after before that after Alexander founded it where it was a very international city
and uh
Actually after more than Jerusalem was kind of the headquarters for international Judaism
because
after the Romans
You know burned everything down and so forth. So yeah, that's true. And of course, New York
There's no native New Yorkers left in New York anymore and same in London. Absolutely
And in in Paris
Same thing. Yeah
Well, it makes sense because
if you're uh
From a backward country you want to go where the streets are paved with gold
Right
Exactly. So it's a so it's a combination of these factors of the influence. Well the the commerce
So there's you know goods and services moving now across what might have been borders before
So it also allows the movement of people and they come to where the affluence is and then
This movement toward intellectualism
Basically has people abandoning
Maybe the core identity group ideas I guess and being more
Gracious toward foreigners as they come in at first at least, you know, uh shows a high-mindedness for them to do that
and then
One thing he talks about this is second or third generation foreign immigrants
He said may appear outwardly to be entirely assimilated
But they can but they often constitute a weakness in two directions
It's the first their basic human nature often differs from that of the original imperial stock
um
And then his second one was
While the nation is still affluent all the diverse races may appear equally loyal
But in an acute emergency the immigrants will often be less willing to sacrifice their lives and their property
Then will be the original descendants of the founding race
Yeah, I think there's a lot to that. I mean it certainly happened with the irish who
Who still got involved
I mean I know this personally from a lot of irish people that I knew and of course I was
kind of irish myself
Although I never got involved in that nonsense. They you know still really cared about what was going on
in ireland with
Talking about the time of troubles and supporting the ira and all the rest of this type of thing
So, yeah, they were fully integrated, but maybe not so much and the italians with the mafia and so forth
Fully integrated, but maybe not so much and I think it's
But the thing is that the irish and the italians
Look like other europeans
but is this true with
The africans and the the muslims that are moving into the us
Well, that's it's going to take longer for them because
You know they immediately can identify each other just by their skin color and other characteristics
So, yeah, he's right
It says what well, you know while the empire is still enjoying its high noon of prosperity
All these people are proud and glad to be imperial citizens, but when decline sets in
Uh, it is extraordinary how the memory of ancient wars
Perhaps centuries before is suddenly revived and local or provincial movements appear demanding succession succession or independence
and outside to this
reparations
Reparations that's that's right. And isn't it true
that
That 16 19 or what a june 19th
Is is an official national holiday now
correct
I I find that
Shocking and disgusting and ridiculous where these people say that the history of america really began when the first slave was
Inboarded
What the hell's the matter with this government that they would actually acknowledge that as being a fact
It's it's crazy to have june 10th. I guess it's called as a national holiday
I mean one of the things trump should do and it's very hard to go backward on this stuff is to uh
Delegitimize it and say nope not a holiday anymore. It's crazy. In fact, it's
It's it's an evil evil stupid and wrong holiday june 19th, but you're right. Yeah
reparations
Yep, but I think that's an example how you know when decline sets in
the memory of ancient wars
You know and and different grievances appears and I think that's a great example of it
Yeah, it is
And then the next thing we get into
Following from that part of the influx of foreigners
Section that he's got is he's talking about how the roman mob had an endless appetite for free distributions of food
and of course that's he doesn't go into
the
How wars
foreign wars fit into all this type of thing but
The way Rome got into its
giving out free bread
to people
Was after the wars when they would after the after the carthaginian war last one ended in 150
bc
You had all these demobilized soldiers and their farms had
Turned to shit because they were away in the wars
So and the war profiteers what happened is
They were making money on the wars in a number of ways even then it was possible
So the average the average legionnaire comes back
You know his his his farm has gone gone to the bush because his wife couldn't take care of it
Meanwhile
Oh
The rich guys who made money off the laws would buy it up turn it into a lot of fundia
And bring imported slaves in from abroad to run the farm
That used to be run by yeoman farmers and now what's he gonna do?
Well, he's gonna go into the city to seek opportunity
But the government gives him
Free free food while he's living there. So it's pretty much pretty much the same thing
Just a variation on free food and uh frivolity
Ah, yes, that's right. It's not enough to have three pots and a cot. You got to have free entertainment too
So we have you know, we have all kinds of
sports ball
Exactly on the internet. So we don't really we don't really need the coliseum and the circus maximus anymore because we got
You know 24 7
entertainment on the internet
Exactly he says the heroes of declining nations are always the same the athlete the singer or the actor
More true in america now than it was in britain 50 years ago when he said that
No doubt about it. No, I've done about it
So yeah, and this so obviously we're in the uh, you know the decadence stage at this point in the paper and I think um
There were some he talks about uh
You know, uh
He talks about the arab empire in this section, which I thought was great because I never heard anybody try and
Use that as an example to demonstrate that there was a larger trend that occurred across
Different types of you know peoples and civilizations
So I loved it the inclusion of the arab empire and in this and
you know, he talks about um
You know the works of contemporary historians of bagdad in the early 10th century are still available
He says that they deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they lived emphasizing particularly
The indifference to religion the the increasing materialism and the laxity of sexual moral morals
They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government
And the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office
Isn't that strange
Who would have guessed
Rightfully, I'm a little bit. Yeah, that was surprising to me because of course the most um
virulent and dogmatic
Religion in the world today is undoubtedly islam where uh, you know people don't just take it seriously
And I think the average
The average muslim does take it much more seriously much more seriously than the average christian does
but uh, some people are
Really fanatics
Or it's it has been a resurgence of that in the uh
In the muslim and he doesn't deal with the that form of the religious aspects of things in the current day
Which i'm sure he would have had opinions on having lived in the middle east his whole life basically
But yeah
And I mean one of the things that's just stood out to me about this when I was
Trying to sell maxim on reading this which I didn't tell you it wasn't hard to do
I was trying to think what it would be most
You know get at him as I said
The idea that feminism was an issue in the uh, you know in the ninth century or I guess 10th century arab empire
and it talks about specifically that
um
That women demanding admission to the professions which were previously monopolized by men
Uh, what wrote a contemporary historian?
Have the professions of clerk tax collector or preacher to do with women
He says these occupations have always been limited to men alone
But women were making their way into those roles and also many women practiced law
This is 10th century arab empire
This is uh, not what most people think of as islam, but
Certainly what we see today with ursa ursa lavander laden. I mean
Kamala Harris, you know, I mean it's it's like
Women are absolutely everywhere and of course women are well over 50 percent of the students in uh
In college and even more so in graduate school
they're
Lawyers, I mean lots of corporate heads
Yeah, so this is kind of a trend too, isn't it and this paper is interesting because he's talking
Not about islam really he's talking about the arab empire, which you know
Raul is out of nowhere and took over the world starting from 630 to
The 9th century
So it's it's very interesting from that point of view
Like to find out, but of course the evolution of islam is
Not exactly the same thing as the evolution of the arab empire during those two years of
good times for the arab's
in particular
so
He says when I first read these contemporary descriptions of 10th century bagdad
I could scarcely believe my eyes
I told myself this must be a joke
The descriptions might have been taken out of the times today
The resemblance of all the details was especially breathtaking the breakup of the empire the abandonment of sexual morality
The pop singers with their guitars the entry of women into the professions the five day week
It really does underline a
cyclical a few of history, I would say
And you know, I've got to mention this
That everything that we know about history
really only goes back for
3000 years, maybe you can say 4000 years
Maybe if you start out with the egyptians, but and the samarians
but listen, that's nothing because
that's like the overlapping lives of like
50 or 60
grandfathers
they you know
50 or 60 people from
from the neolithic times with
You know beating rocks together. I mean, it's it's just amazing. So
humanity is still just a puppy
A blink of an eye it really is
So let's see what else what's the next thing that he he
He points out so the immigration of poor people to the empire which
Changes the values of the empire that made it great. That's absolutely happening in the u.s
And he goes on to say
There's an impression that
uh
It will always be automatically rich
And that causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its
own benevolence until such time as the economy collapses
The universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin
Well, exactly. That's exactly what happened in
thomas cole's painting the
the
decadence of empire a series of
There used to be all those things and then it went back to bush
Yeah
He does he does get into religion a little bit. I don't know if there was anything that stood out to you about that part
Though I didn't have many notes. I didn't underline anything that he had to say about religion, which is
Which surprised me since he lived in the
you know
lived among the followers of the prophet for most of his life
including having
Been the head of the geordianian army
so
Well, I think
Maybe he didn't want to say anything about it. I don't know
Maybe that was too much of a hot button. I don't know
The one thing he does say is that
Some of the greatest saints in history lived in times of national decadence
Raising the banner of duty and service against the flood of depravity and despair
That's the only line I underlined from that whole section
Well, that could be
a resurgence
Things are going downhill and then you
Have an uptick. Maybe that's what he's talking about
Yeah
Yeah, or maybe they just stand out as saints because they're they're basically trying to hold back the tide
So they stand out, you know
They won't give up the ghost
Yeah, that could be
Yeah, I mean the only time we we see salmon is when they're swimming upstream and they jump out of the water, but
They're gonna die shortly. Yeah, they're going to die
He's got one section here, uh where he points out that decadence is not physical
And that's a good point. It's basically moral
Exactly
Um, the habits of members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of too much money
Too much power for too long a period the result has been in the framework of their national life to make them selfish and idle
A community of selfish and idle people declines
Uh internal quarrels develop in the division of its dwindling wealth and pessimism
Follows which some of them endeavor to drown in sensuality or frivolity
Yeah, and of course he attributes a lot of this to
success and money and wealth, but
It's it's there's a contradiction here in that
He kind of thinks that
We don't want to have that because it destroys
Morality and sound virtues and he's right, but on the other hand
If you don't have
An accumulation of wealth
Uh, you're not going to progress
so it's uh
I guess the answer is to accumulate wealth, but all the well emphasizing
solid moral virtues to overcome the
negative aspects of becoming wealthy
Yeah, I think on an
I think on an individual basis you can still be virtuous and do that, but just as the
Nation and as a broad, you know as a culture. I think it's it's hard because the um
You know the issue is
You know, like if you think about the the virtues that americans have that was founded or that came out of
The frontier, you know, we're like the self-reliance
You know the independence the
Hardworking like all those were requirements for survival
Requirements, so if you didn't have those qualities you wouldn't exist
And then there's a there's a
There's a natural
But then when the world becomes not wealthy
You don't have to have those qualities anymore your your necessity level
Has gone down and you do other things. So it's like
It's like the natural flow of things that uh
You know, it's
It's like it's like what happens. It's well. What happens with empires is almost like what happens to individuals
You know, you're you're young and outgoing and adventurous and you become successful
Then you become fat and old and then you generate and then you die
it's it's
Individual life on a grand scale
Yeah, yeah, and I
I think one of the things that I got from this whole paper is just that idea it actually made me feel
That's not bad, but maybe kind of feel better in a way than just seeing that
Oh, this is this is a process. It just happens
And it doesn't mean I mean individuals can still be fine in this when it's happening
Um, oh, what anything he talks about when he talks about decadent states he talks about
You know when in when an individual when individual members of such a society
Decadent society emigrate into entirely new surroundings. They do not remain
Uh conspicuously decadent pessimistic or immoral among the inhabitants of the new homeland homeland
Once enabled to break away from their old channels of thought and after a short period of readjustment
They become normal citizens of their adopted countries
Some of them in the second or third generations may attained
Preeminence in the leadership of their new communities. So it is like it is
An echo chamber almost within that empire that if you're trapped in it, it's hard to get out and I've seen this with my
Some family that you know feels to me. There's they're just running on this
And Sumerism treadmill like crazy and can't give it up. They like
They order their lives around
consumption and entertainment
You know and they and they accumulate more debt because of it and they
I don't think that they can even see they're like, you know, the fish swimming in water
They have no understanding that's what they're doing because the society is so like that now
And if they stepped away for three months and many other parts of the world
I think that they would
They'd be free of it and it could be any good and productive again
well, I think that's absolutely correct and
immigrants
Have always been the best kind of people that
Jump out of the cesspool that they're in
And go into fresh waters and work hard in in that because they have to so
I'm all for immigrants, but not the kind of immigrants we have today that are
being
you know
Imported and then land on a feather bed with free credit cards and free places to live and free food and free medical
You're drawing exactly the opposite of the kind of people you want not the kind of immigrants that you'd get otherwise
If it wasn't for the state
I'm talking about the kind of immigrants. We are that's what I mean
I think we're value
I kind of think so. Yeah, I think there's a lot to that
So anyway, the last part of his his um
Well, he makes one statement
uh
before
part number 39
Which is the summary, but there's one other statement that he mentions that I underlined
And he said that all religions seem to reach the conclusion that love is the key to human life
And I don't see I think he's jumping to a conclusion
on that. I mean, it's a key with christianity
But
It has absolutely nothing to do with islam
That love is the key to human life nothing at all
And I'm surprised that he'd say that having lived in in that part of the world most of his life
and
Love is the key to human life
I don't think that's
It's not what
The buddhist or the daoists or I don't think anybody says that except for the christians. Am I right or wrong?
I mean, I can't I'm out of I'm not an expert on all the religions
but certainly in the
The mode of christianity that is emphasized today. It is I think but
Yeah, I don't know about elsewhere. I don't know
anyway, that's
You know
It would be something that would have been nice to talk to him about that but he's been dead for a long time
But the last part the summary I found was interesting because
He goes into
Two things
in his kind of summation
He says decadence is marked by and he gives the
Outward signs of decadence
And then he says decadence is due to and then he gives the reasons for that decadence
And I think he's pretty right. What do you what do you think about?
Well, I I didn't I didn't underline part. Can you explain what he says that decadence is defined by?
well
Well, let's see. It's yeah, it's defined by it's marked by is what he says
Uh defensiveness
Okay, as opposed to reaching out
Uh pessimism
Yeah, I suppose that's true
Uh materialism very definitely frivolity very definitely an influx of foreigners
Yeah, destroying the values that made the
State what it was and the welfare state. Yeah, and a weakening of religion. Yeah
I'm not a religious person, but he's absolutely right about that because people don't believe in anything anymore
so
I think that those things all
Mark are current
Are signs that we're in the decadence stage of
Of the rise and fall at this point and what did he say that was due to?
He says that it's due to
Too long a period of wealth and power. Sure. He'd become fat and lazy
selfishness
thinking only I guess that's
You think only about yourself and you're not loyal to
The group that you're a member of okay, that's true enough
love of money
Okay, I would interpret that as being a
Insufficient emphasis on
um
Virtue virtue right exactly
And uh loss of a sense of duty. Yeah, I think that's true too
uh
I mean where the
common wheel has been replaced by the government and
you know
I'm a believer in loyalty and duty, but not to the government because they're just criminals
so
I guess my attitudes are influenced by the fact that everything is
Decadent
So but I think he's generally right and all these things that he mentions you could do an interesting essay just on
The signs of decadence and the causes of decadence. So I think I think he's spot on
Generally, yeah, let's expand it into a really great book covering a covering a few other subjects that he just touches on
But anyway, everybody ought to read that paper
Yeah, you really should it's it's 25 pages very well written very easy to read and it
It's
I think it's a it's a it's a big picture thinking tool to understand where exactly we're at and what's coming next
regardless of who's elected president or temporary advances
in
We can have temporary political advances and temporary even economic advances I think
But the decline of empires if unless all of a sudden this time is different
You have to see what's the writing is on the wall
with it, I think I
I I feel pretty certain
that he would have read Spangler
and
Kind of stood on his shoulders and summarized it
Yeah, I read Spangler and I don't think I'm smart enough to really read and understand everything that Spangler says, but uh
Yeah, this is the
This is what I was hoping to get out of reading that
That book it's two volumes in nature like 900 pages
I read one volume and started the second one and what I was hoping for actually was this
25 pages summation
No listen life is too short and
You know
Yeah, exactly what what I'd like to find actually is
somebody that
does
Spangler for dummy Spangler for dummies something like that
Actually, I mean you don't have to beat yourself up with all kinds of
Yeah, it should be readable because if it's
Everything should be readable and understandable and it shouldn't be so obscure and obstruous and complicated which is
They get a good idea and and screw it up by making it unintelligible
Right, but at the same time I wish this guy would have turned this into a book because I would have loved to have read it
That was some of these details, but um
By the way, yeah, I strongly encourage everyone to check it out to definitely read it
I'll have a link for it in the description below. I hope you found this
Uh
Stepping away of the drama of the day of the latest
You know geopolitical movements or market movements useful. Uh, certainly this is stuff that I'm all more interested in
Yeah, me too and my guess is that of all of the uh
of all of the
Podcasts we've had this is probably the one that's least likely to go viral, but we'll find out
Yeah, I think that's you that's okay. We do it for ourselves anyway. So that's fine
That's that's right exactly
Okay, okay. Well, thanks a lot Doug. I appreciate it. We'll be we'll be back next week with more
Can't wait Matt. Thanks