Sitting here in Asia, looking at fertilizer prices,
when's your pocketbook going to be affected?
Let's put a timeline on it.
And when's the rest of the world
going to begin to starve?
It's all related.
Well, we had COVID to look at as an example
of when fertilizer prices spike and food spikes.
2011 was another one.
This is going to be on the heels
since it is the greatest disruption
in fossil fuels in human history.
It is also related to the greatest
fertilizer disruption in human history.
Got some information from the IMF,
the World Bank for you,
and how expensive the prices are going to creep up
and when you can expect them to hit hardest
just based on past cycles and then future forecasts.
So hold on, have you thought prices got wild
and COVID, do you haven't seen anything yet?
But first, Oman, the wild floods happening there.
Years worth of rain in a single day
turning the WDs into rivers.
Check out the flows coming off the mountain sides there as well.
Waterfalls beginning, and this is so abnormal
that the floods are experiencing are literally
into the 1,000 year mark
so they've had previous floods on the hillside
that they can measure through time.
Again, waterfalls coming down off these same areas.
Interestingly though,
it is that the Musaddam Peninsula
circling red there for you, Oman,
right up on the tip, right at the Strait of Hormuz,
that's why I'm bringing you this one.
And I did not know this either
that Oman occupies three different territories
on the Peninsula Central
and then the larger land mass down on the Arabian Peninsula.
Looking out at it, green waters,
a little bit of snorkeling, that type of thing there.
Old school fishing village, very rocky.
There's really nothing to absorb that water when it floods.
Where does it go?
Straight down the hills into the towns.
Let's go back 2,000 years,
circa 100 AD, the Frankincense trade,
the Nabataean kingdom and Petra there.
Look at the Parthian Empire, that is now Iran.
You can see how the trade routes extended
all the way from Redditerranean clear over
into Eastern Indian Ocean, Western Pacific,
all the way through Indonesia.
Long time for the trades.
Areas had a lot of commerce and disruption
through wars, through the last millennia,
multi thousands of years.
This is nothing different, except it affects you personally
this time, not historically.
The real inflation starts in the soil
and that's the thing about the floods, the soils.
So with all of the, I guess, smoke and burning embers
of things around in that region,
once there's those huge fireworks displays
at whatever New Year, Western New Year,
Chinese Lunar New Year, whatever it is,
usually it rains after that.
A lot of generals always talked about fierce battles.
You know what the amount of smoke
and gunpowder in the air
that it always rained after fierce battles.
So with Oman taking a year's worth of rain in a day,
you have to wonder, is any of this smoke-related incidents
from all these things happening in the Middle East,
burning refineries, oil going off everywhere,
is this have something to do with
what they're seeing weather-wise?
Because if it is, then this is just gonna be
a recurring pattern now on a nightmarish,
you know, a thousand-year flood
coming every single storm when there's precipitation
to be had based on what's happening geopolitically.
Let's get into the numbers.
World Bank calibrated model estimates every 1% rise
in fertilizer prices transmits into a 0.5%
or almost half a percent rise in food commodity prices.
So if your Rio's up 29% in 11 days
and we do just half of that,
you're looking just ballpark around 14, 15% increase
in the food commodities.
But as all good things,
people do those markups along the way
and now we have to pay to go through the straight-ahore moves
even if you get your fertilizer,
add two million bucks for a ship moving through there
and everything just seems to be
getting a little more expensive.
Now, 52% year over year,
where that's already at a 25% rise in a food price
coming up, we used to get a nine-month,
six-to-nine-month delay.
This is gonna continue.
So all analysis from every source I've seen
is saying fertilizer is gonna trend higher.
So I was looking at what,
this is directly right out of the Middle East,
you're a granular.
That red arrow shows you where it has gone.
Where it has continued to go
and will move to needs new bars on top.
They're gonna have to move this
into the thousands after this.
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It's going to eclipse anything that we've seen
in the COVID era and also 2011.
So this is the new gold.
If you can't grow food,
you can't have a civilization period.
So off the electroverse,
crunching some numbers,
the world's productive farmlands,
if we're going to cut yields
because without the green revolution,
there's nitrogenous fertilizers produced
with natural gas, which is cut off,
force measure everywhere on natural gas deliveries
that are carrying capacity for the planets
around 3.5 billion,
which is substantially lower than today's population.
So that's half or under.
Can you imagine the chaos and the economic upheaval,
just the social chaos of just even trying to keep law
and order in a food scarce world
where people are actually dying on the streets
from lack of food?
And if you don't get it,
your family's not going to eat.
This is the thing where
so many movies have been done about this.
You also have to wonder about this,
cultural conditioning that we've seen,
bevvies of movies over the last 20 years.
And you start to look at this thing.
Chest moves, you could play
and you could game this one out on the food disruption.
COVID was nasty.
This is going to be nasty plus nastier.
Because in addition to the Middle Eastern sources,
now we have the Chinese government
is exporting outbound shipments of fertilizer.
They're a major fertilizer producer.
America imports an enormous amount from China.
So the Middle East is down, China is down.
And now we've got Russia
suspending exports of ammonia and nitrate.
That's a huge chunk of global fertilizer production
that normally goes out into the agricultural world
for a better term.
And the food drivers off the IMF,
this is the biggie here.
Now you started to put all these pieces together
where the fertilizer price shocks are in,
the oil price shocks are in,
the three year treasury bill shock is in.
So that's three of three so far.
And then we're coming to the harvest shock,
which will be determined
by the amount of fertilizers available
for planting over the next two months.
There's only so far you can go past a planting window
before you've lost the year's crops.
So this graph off of Platt's Middle Eastern fertilizer prices,
you know, the previous one I showed you was at $730.
That is a jump up from 700,
but the sulfur also very much used
in different production processes for metal and mining.
So metals are gonna get more expensive,
fertilizers are gonna get more expensive
and helium's disrupted there 30% since I'm in Taiwan
and they're having a helium disruption
in the semiconductor chip industry
of 30%, which means they're cutting also production.
Everywhere you look,
every possible manufacturing process around the planet
is being affected by this.
Thin rate off DD geopolitics,
the famine signal China fertilizer embargo.
Now we got the Russian and fertilizer embargo
and we got the Middle East fertilizer embargo.
So I don't know how many more embargoes you can go
before it's obviously in everybody's face.
Now, everybody's gonna assure you
that this thing is just temporary
and we're gonna get planted.
If we get planted and we don't have fertilizers
for mid-season application and ease in,
you know, a lot of countries buy it as they use it.
We're just so lucky we have farm services,
organizations, USDA that allow farmers to get loans
to pre-purchase a lot of these things that they need,
at least on the large ag bedside.
Now they can get what they pretty much need,
hundreds of thousands of pounds of this,
hundreds of thousands of gallons of diesel,
all this stuff in advance to get ready.
But in many a country across the planet,
it is get it as you plant,
like literally that week you'll buy
for what you're going to plant.
So the rest of the world is gonna be affected first
and faster than we would be in the U.S.
in places like Canada that get farm financing.
If they don't have the fertilizers,
we're looking at a 50% yield,
half of what's normally achieved
by applying all these fertilizers.
Now, not even, now what happens with the pesticides?
Well, if we don't have that,
then the insects are gonna be a problem.
A lot of things would be better left off of our crops,
you know, at juveness shall we say,
like pesticides, herbicides, fungicides,
better left off our crops for healthier foods,
but those things also increase our yields
and without those yield increases,
then the work in the math on it,
on each 10% reduction in food
takes up your food price, a certain percentage.
That's regionally dependent.
So again, what we might experience in America
would be different than what they were experiencing
in Bangladesh or what they might experience in Pakistan.
But everywhere you go,
the disruptions are these transit points
for other goods and services across the world.
Like if India gets disrupted because of food,
like there's a huge amount of trans shipment
happening through India.
Like what happens if it goes South in Hong Kong or Singapore?
You know, Taiwan, there's so many places
where if it's disrupted, all these transmodal modes
of shipping to get goods from point A to point B
gets more disrupted and it just spirals out of control.
So the number one thing is the food,
the fertilizers and the transportation availability
of that to grow foods cheaply enough
that society still holds itself together.
And we've seen through history routinely
where it doesn't and it hasn't.
And we as archeologists today find the remnants
of those previous great civilizations
that couldn't get their food production together enough.
And that's why they collapsed.
So again, the best thing we can do
is look to the past to see the future.
And you'll see the spikes here, 2011, 12.
That was a big one for fertilizer, food shocks,
price up, things sort of stabilized.
COVID came back in and that's at 35% increase there in 2022.
With the Ukraine, Russia intervention there,
that is all part of that tied in.
So if we really move it forward,
you can see there's about a six to nine month delay
between some sort of geopolitical event,
natural events, disruptions to the price spike peak.
So we're looking at Black Sea grain initiatives
being put in where the world had to give fertilizers
and get pricing stabilized because of that conundrum
in the world's, one of the world's largest bread baskets,
Ukraine, took 30 million tons offline.
Well, that's your peak about six months after.
So if we look at the price shock pass through,
meaning when the shocks hit,
where is those costs passed onto
and how long does the start to finish date on it?
So we're about a month into this Edan thing here.
So that'll be month number one.
You're starting to see the prices run up,
but this is a very different animal we're looking at.
So as we approach month nine for at least
high trade open countries and high income countries,
it very much follows the same trend.
The price spike should start hitting us
about nine months from now.
What, how high is it gonna go?
The event's not over.
So the disruptions continue
and the prices will continue to continue, if that makes sense.
So here's the FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
from the United Nations,
putting out their Serial Price Index.
You notice that we're sitting at 108 right now,
but where do the previous spikes occur
in the exact same time, the 2011 disruption,
2022 events that caused this spike as well.
So where do you think we would sit
on a timeline of disruption?
So the World Serial Price Index,
and we're gonna get in a little closer here.
Notice the spike 2022,
that is subsequent because of disruptions in Ukraine,
one country, not global, regional for a better term,
but highly wide,
because Africa imported a huge amount of grain
from Ukraine and their grains were cut off.
World Food Price Index, that means spike 2022,
they're following a pattern.
What do you see in the World Vegetable Oil Price Shock Index?
2022 peak, dairy price index peak 2022
and we're peaking now again.
Well, that's gonna probably go into a triple top
on this one, I would expect.
And as we see the meat price index, 2022 peak,
but we are back eclipsing that even now,
it's going higher on the meats.
So everywhere you look,
you're starting to see the same repeating patterns.
So nine months from now will be far higher than 2022,
expectations for peak on pricing.
And here's one last little cherry on the top
to wrap out tonight.
The toll process requiring two to four million
per tanker slash break bar,
whatever it is, cargo, vessel, oil carrier,
LNG carrier, whatever,
they're charging two to four million
per shipment to allow it to pass.
That's a new toll road on our world.
So everything from this point forward
is gonna cost you at least this much.
Passed on cost.
This is just gonna be a new toll
that you're going to pay for life
because this area of the world
is now gonna have a pass through cost on it permanently.
And when I say that,
even the U.S. is talking with the other hand,
saying, yeah, we can control it
and we can have a continuous flow of money for you,
for this toll system,
for every vessel outbound or inbound forever.
So here, that's just another cost that lays on top,
four million for a single ship.
Well, that's gonna be every ship.
That's 30% of everything on the world
is gonna have an extra two to four million dollars
tacked on top of it.
That cost is going to you.
Their company is not gonna eat that right to you.
So if you think it's got expensive,
if you think that so far,
this is gonna be a continuous tax.
You know, they were talking about global taxes
for emissions and that sort of thing.
This is that in a different form,
different packaging, prettier bow on it,
same, same, but different.
And as we move forward with fertilizer pricing,
if it keeps going up
and the amount available continues downward,
then this is gonna be a very significant year
in terms of how foods are gonna get
so expensive so fast.
Like you're watching the fertilizer prices
go up 20, 30% in a week.
When food prices start to trend on this
and follow, especially right around July,
they get a good gauge of harvest health
and crops progress and all these things.
They run through and do all the wheat and corn
and that sort of thing in the U.S. around that time, July.
If it goes to the low point
and people are just freaking out in the ag space,
we're absolutely gonna have to go
to some sort of universal basic income.
People won't be able to afford the food.
Now many will, don't get me wrong, many will.
But in the scheme of things, many won't.
So how do you keep that segment of society satiated
and at least mentally stable enough that they can eat
that next week they can still have food?
This is far beyond snap.
This is way, way back into half the country
is gonna need some sort of money.
And that's great that people can get it for assistance
but at some point there's gonna be animosity.
Like why am I paying five times food price
and those people are getting it free.
It's gonna come into that sort of next contagion.
You can see how it's gamed out
to move the world in a certain direction.
You always have to have people in fighting, right?
So that'll be another one.
When food spikes, UBI comes in
and the people who are really making money
or can afford it are gonna be super angry
that they need to pay
and their quality of life is gonna reduce.
This is just so routine through history.
It shouldn't be even shocking.
You should just look at the history book
and go, oh, it's our turn now.
Hmm, what happened every single time since then?
These societies become complacent
like it's never gonna happen to us.
It's just a repeating cycle in history
and I can't believe more people aren't getting ready for it.
So please prepare to grow your own food.
We're gonna get the announcement
that you're gonna have to start growing
some of your own food.
This revival of the Victory Garden is already on the books.
This thing is gonna stretch
and there's doesn't seem to be any sight
that you can see where it's ending.
This is a new movement of the world perpetually forever
for the rest of our lives in this new direction.
This is that pivot point.
Needed, manufactured, curated
and forced down our throats.
So a good source of seeds that I love and I use
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I definitely have their storeable food kits myself
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These are two of my recommendations
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They have a one week kit, a three day kit,
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But check both of these out.
This world we're moving into
is getting stranger by the minute.
Like I said, I'm just not sure when this ends
but one thing assured is food
is gonna go up again in price.
Are you prepared for that?
You can be when others aren't going to be.
So I'll catch you next video
talking about the fuel shortages
and rationing here in Asia.
Since I'm here now,
this channel is moving over to fertilizer
and fuel reports along with strange weather
but stay glued with me as I travel around Asia
and get into the thick of all these disruptions
just so I can see it firsthand.
Bring it to your firsthand
and cut through the curated news muck raking
to try to get you to believe in a certain way.
Are these stories real out here or not?
Well, let's travel around and see if they are.