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Welcome back to the Delling pod Keith Weiner. Um, I think it's been about what two years
Since we lost
Yeah, and I mean much has changed
Recently, I'm so glad to have you on on the on back on the podcast because I mean
What about the craziness with silver and gold?
Yeah, gold fifty six hundred dollars silver hundred and twenty. I mean wow, I know I
Mean I know it's I know it's your business
But
Are you in it just because it's a business or are you a sort of gold and silver bug as well?
so I
Got my PhD in
What I would call a monetary science
So studying monetary system
understanding
the failure of
Second what happened?
I
Having tech problems the screen went black and that was it
In you know why it's the it's the Illuminati. They hate us. They want us
For whatever it was I know why Riverside is a better platform because
It records everything locally so you never get any internet skips to break up on the audio
But I have a better quality microphone that doesn't work with Riverside and
It's very temperamental to be able to log into it. So I couldn't get it to work in my normal browser
I'm now in a different browser and
hopefully it's stable, but
Well, I hope so Keith aren't you supposed to be good at tech
Isn't that part of your job description? I joke about this everybody has a special private hell
mine is that
my last company
developed audio technology for you know, telecommunications like this and
We literally solved I invented and patented and we built working code to solve most of
At least on the audio side the problems that still plague us today. So I literally built a better system
um
And that got sold to nortel networks right before they went bankrupt a via bought the pieces out of bankruptcy
Um dropped it on the floor. It's it's, you know, totally done as a platform
And so I have to live with
You know the unsolved problem I literally solved and patented. That's my personal hell
That is quite funny and it's quite funny. See you really are good at tech and yet
You suffer like the rest of us
That was my first career. I was a software developer and
um
So do you want me to just resume where I?
Yeah, yeah, just so you were telling me about how your your phd. Yeah, so I studied monetary science and I studied
um
You know how the system is failing why it's failing. It's because we have irredeemable currency
People say fiat currency. It's true. It's it's you know, treated as money because of law
But it's irredeemable in the sense that you can't go to the bank and say now give me my money back
You give them a 20 dollar bill. What do you want? You want change of
You know, you want, you know, two fives and 10 what what do you want?
But you know back in the in the time of redeemable currency, you get a one ounce gold piece
Back if you put a 20 dollar bill on the teller window
so
systems failing
gold is the solution and so I
I developed the idea for this business based on thinking about the problem that we have
And there's a very famous quote from John Maynard Keynes
And most gold people would be familiar with the first part of it where he says there's no sure way
To overthrow the capitalist order, which means overthrow of civilization by the way
Then to debauch the money
And most people then just say oh, I know what he means. He's talking about inflation
But if you read through the quote
Right, he's talking about
Especially the end of the quote. He says and you know, you can destroy the world
By engaging all of the hidden forces of economics
Now today we would use the term incentive
So you're offering incentives to destroy the world in a way that not one in a million can diagnose what's happening to the world
Now if you think he meant rising consumer prices inflation
then
that means that
You know, he's a moron
I don't think Keynes was a moron. I think I mean he's evil, but I think he was a genius
He was much smarter than his critics of his day or now
And I don't think he thought that people wouldn't notice inflation
And of course, whenever you have a bout of inflation, that's what everybody talks about all day long every day
I remember the late 1970s. It was on the nightly news five days a week
They talked about inflation. They talked about unemployment and they had something called the misery index
That was inflation plus unemployment
unemployment
So what I think and Keynes is very explicit elsewhere in his writing
He talks about pushing the interest rate to zero
Now if you push the interest rate to zero asset prices are inverse interest rates
Which means asset price is going to infinity and the reason why nobody can diagnose what's going on in the world is everybody loves the bull market
So I think Keynes was absolutely brilliant. I mean again evil
I don't want to say I'm anybody mist thinks that I'm you know praising him in any way
I just think that you know, if you look at his plan to destroy the world
He was effective in designing a destructive plan because he understood how you know markets work
So I designed this company in monetary metals and we pay interest on gold and the purpose
Was thinking about that quote of Keynes and saying what if you offered an incentive
Not to destroy the world but to help the world get to a better place
Then how would you do that and then that was like the hot moment was you offer interest on gold
And that's the incentive to bring gold back
You know, we don't say gold standard too much in our
Discussion because that word is where that term is still loaded with emotional baggage
Everybody has a different concept of what I think that means
We want to bring back the use of gold as savings
and as
A vehicle for finance
And so it's got to be able to
One of the criticisms of gold right the Warren Buffett objection to gold. It doesn't earn a yield
It's just the same lump of metal
And you know if gold is money, which I believe it is
Then it should be able to earn a return and that's um
So yes, I'm in it for ideological reasons not just because well as a business
Yeah, I mean
These are sort of good times and bad times for us
Well gold bugs fall into the better word and that I mean probably like you
I've been
telling my friends
For years about like why I'm in gold
I've you've got to be in gold be in silver silver silver silver's, you know
Gold with rocket boosters on it, but but you should have a bit of both. You really should and I'm talking to people who
Oh, I didn't know sort of spent times working at working at the invest the big invest American investment banks
Or professional investors with with years of experience with them
and they were they were sort of
Nice to me, but they were slightly patronizing like like gold was something you had
Maybe five to ten percent of in your in your portfolio just but but and they'd quote that Warren Buffett thing at me
I mean, I have a much much cleverer brother who's who's who's he's like you. I mean, he's a he's a serious entrepreneur and
I mean he indulged me, but he wasn't going. Yeah, James. Yeah, you're right. You're going to be vindicated one day
so
Probably like you I feel good about being vindicated at the same time
I'm thinking
The fact that gold and silver are doing this crazy stuff right now is not a good sign for the general
World economy is it
What does it mean, Keith?
so, um, I let's use an analogy of
Copernicus
and
You know before Copernicus people believed that everything revolves around the earth
including the sun
And you know in a certain sense you look at the sky things move across it makes sense, right?
If you don't know any better
Now the problem is if you look at the motion of certain planets
They have this retrograde motion where the the planet moves forward and then back a little bit and then forward and back a little bit
Now let alone you can't explain why it's moving backwards
Even describing that backwards motion and trying to write equations for it becomes really complicated
and
Of course, you know as official trick doctrine everything's you know the earth is the center
You couldn't really just say look this makes no sense
And you know if you did you know you risked as Galileo did you know being tortured and you know killed and all that stuff in those days
but
The point being that when you
Try to work a theory that isn't really right things become much more complicated
and when you
When you change your theory and realize you know how reality actually is then you know physics becomes much simpler
And um, so people today look at
You know everything's measured in dollars. I mean the other currencies pounds sterling euro or dollar derivatives
It's a dollar world
We're good or for ill for ill, but it is what it is
um
And they think okay wages are rising consumer prices are rising gold is rising everything's rising at different rates
and as an artifact
You know imagine you're standing on the deck of a sinking ship
And you're in stormy seas going up and down with the waves and you're saying why is the lighthouse going up and down and mostly up?
Like you just got the wrong vantage point and it's not seeing it accurately
So what it means to me is very simple, but this is a profound paradigm shift
Which is the dollar and the entire fiat complex with it is going down
Now when people hear the dollar is going down they turn to the dollar index
You know and you're measuring the dollar essentially in euros
Okay, so the euro is going up a little bit in dollar terms, but that's like climbing one or two decks on the titanic
uh, the whole thing is sinking and okay, you know the euro is moving up a little bit relative to the baseline
Uh, you know, does it matter? But if you measure things in gold
It's the only way to really measure economic values
You realize wait a minute
It was a couple of short years ago that the dollar was 16 milligrams of gold
Today it's six milligrams of gold
And you realize the whole thing is just losing value. It's just being degraded debased debauched
You know, etc
And that means every productive enterprise is bleeding out capital
Obviously savers are bleeding out capital and savers can be investors if I see the right pitch everything is losing
Economic value is just draining out everywhere
That's really bad
And then at the margin you see unemployment. You see, you know credit and capital pulling back from marginal markets
You know all over the world
This is this is the stuff where people become impoverished
You know in much larger numbers and impoverished people become angry and desperate and then horrible things, you know can happen
I wouldn't say as a direct, you know cause
Poor people aren't necessarily violent
But if a large number of people or especially if the poverty is sudden
And they don't feel that it was because of their own laziness or
Stupidity they feel that the economy is just leaving them out or leaving them behind
um, you get
You know radical political movements revolutions
violence in the streets
You know all that stuff
Um, I was gonna ask you
Where
Where do you study this stuff because I I didn't I thought academe was so kind of
sold to the mainstream narrative
The did you where did you find a professor to to work with on this? Um
I found a very unique professor
Uh, his name was was because he's passed away a few years ago and tal fecatec Hungarian
Who escaped Hungary in 1956 along with a lot of other Hungarians one step ahead of the russian tanks
Made his way to canada became a professor in the canadian university system for you know, it was his career
Um, but he was always and he was a mathematician. He taught mathematics
But he was always interested in economics, you know kind of self-taught, but he had some interesting mentors
um
one of whom
Is uh, it was an individual named colonel harwood who founded something called the american
Institute for economic research a i er and great barrington
massachusetts
Now they became very famous a few years ago for the great barrington declaration against college. Oh, yeah. Yeah
It's the same. It's the same great barrington. It's the same a i er
so, um, I gave a keynote at a i er
This is years ago probably 2015 or 2018 or something many years ago now
Uh, you know talking about, you know, some of my theories and it was pretty well received and um
afterwards
A bunch of us were sitting so a i er is in this old mansion that was built in the
You know 1920s very opulent very posh
A little bit shabby, you know nowadays, but uh sort of picture the building and it was a house for a very wealthy guy
Now there's an institute there, but anyway, they still have kind of the salon
so a bunch of us were just talking after dinner in the salon and um
You know so colonel harwood passed away. I think in the 1980s a long time ago
um his
son who at that time was then elderly
said to me
Your ideas sound like the ideas of my father. I haven't heard anybody talk like this in, you know, many decades
And someone said, oh, yeah great minds, you know, think alike and you know, this kind of ha ha, you know laugh it off
But I was thinking about it. It's like
I'm not sure if that's true
And then someone else said and I hadn't realized this at all
Fecke's hang when he was much younger was mentored by harwood and spent many
You know hours days weeks months on and off visiting with harwood
He was editing his journals and his papers and all kinds of things and there's no question
Picked up a lot of ideas in harwood
Now feckett's hang would say and did say in his classroom that his ideas could come from carl menger
Who was the you know, essentially recognized founder of the austrian school?
and I think
And I can't and I haven't really researched this to put together the last piece
But I think what happened was
harwood
Must have spoke german or you know read in read german fluently and read menger, which was not she
Menger wasn't translated into english until long after that
But read menger in the original german
And developed his ideas mentored feckett's hang feckett's hang then
I became a student not really intentionally
I mean I dropped out of college in computer science because I wanted to go builds. I'm an entrepreneur not an academic
I wanted to go build a company. I got excited by you know, michael dell and bill gates and all these people that dropped out and do stuff
And that's what I did
Built that company sold it in 2008 and then I never thought I'd go back to school for anything let alone a soft
science like economics
but it was it was fascinating it was compelling and
So I just started to write essays
to
You know, you don't know something
As well until you try to write about it and teach it and then you really
So I just was writing essays and of course I shared essays with this guy who'd become my professor
And then at some point he said, you know, you really have something here. You should
You know apply for your phd
I was like, okay, you know that sounds interesting. It's not accredited. I want I want to I always put that asterisk up front
I could never get a job but this is not a real credential
But feckett was a real university man. My other dissertation examiner
Is another austrian school economist that would be
Somewhat well known in austrian schools Juan Ramon Raleo as a professor of economics at Juan Carlos University in Madrid
So he was my other dissertation examiner
and
You know, I wrote about kind of the end of the world and how it works with old backwardation and all these things
and just became
endlessly fascinated with us
and
Did you say backwardation? Yes
That's that's a word I've been seeing
Quite a bit recently. I don't know what it means
I think I get credit for introducing that word into the gold community
around
2010 or 2011 or 2012
So very simply it's when the price of gold in the spot market is higher than the price of gold in the futures market
Normally a futures contract should be higher because there's an interest rate and across the storage
So nobody will sell you a futures contract unless you cover the you know the interest
however
Backwardation can occur and backwardation any normal commodity means scarcity
So imagine but here's a picture of this
You know, think of the wheat market
I don't know how it is, you know, the uk is probably similar to here
The wheat harvest comes in
somewhere, you know july to august
so
Imagine july 1
You drive a grain empty grain truck to one of those grain towns
You know with the silos and everything and say how much to fill this your truck up
with a load of wheat
Well, they'd be laughing at you because you're like a week before the harvest starts to come in
Nobody has any grain. I mean they probably pop the top off those silos
You can probably see, you know light in there
They're hosing it all down and cleaning it up getting ready for the new delivery
And you say no, I'm serious and you take out a lot of you know, $20 bills
Well, somebody's gonna make a phone call
And turn some truck around that was halfway to a bakery or to a brewery somewhere bring it back
And say okay, $17 a bushel will fill your truck
And so if you do that, you're gonna pull the the weed out from some other contract that was, you know, paying less
Whereas if you're willing to wait until september delivery a month and a half away
Then instead of $17 a bushel it might be $7 a bushel
So the fact that the price is higher in the spot market versus the futures market
Is because of there's a scarcity
Now in weed it makes sense, right? There is going to be a scarcity the day before the harvest starts to arrive
Yeah gold
We've been accumulating gold without any particular limit for at least 6500 years
There's no such thing as a glut in gold and there's no such thing as a scarcity
However, gold can be scarce to the market
And so we do have intermittent backwarditions in gold much more recently. We've had backwardition in silver
It got pretty to a pretty severe level in october
It recurred at the end of the year and into january. It's not backwardated at the moment
But that's
You know
part of part of the rising prices story for the metals
Is that you know, they become scarcer because people just are reluctant to bring their metal to market
They'd rather hold it
You know close to the vest
When that happens and the price goes up
hopefully the price higher price draws more metal into the market and
You know the world doesn't just come to an end. But at the end of the day
Um if gold withdraws its bid on the dollar
The dollar is finished. Now let me explain what I mean by that
In times of crisis
It's always the bid that is withdrawn never the offer, right? So a live market has two prices bid an offer
You want to sell your house? You list it at some price. That's the offered price
That doesn't mean anybody's paying that. That's just that's the price you'd like to get
Bid price is what the the buyers say. Okay, you know, if you if you'd you know, a hundred thousand pounds lower
You know, I'd be buying it
That's the bid and then it doesn't move because you don't want to come down and they don't want to come up until somebody
You know compromises or whatever
If there was a real crisis
suppose
The us geological survey came out and said there's going to be an earthquake in la
15 on the Richter scale nothing taller than a dollhouse would be left standing
There would be no lack of offers to sell real estate
Some of them would be just under where it had been previously. Some of them would be bargaining and try to come down
But what you would see is no bid
No bid from Santiago Chile to british columbia and uh in canada and probably as far east as the mississippi river
There'd be no bid as the entire world
Holds their breath waiting for the earthquake to hit when it hits then the bid comes back in and perhaps a lot lower
Who knows?
No, but it's always a bid that withdraws
Now when you see thoughtful speakers and I've seen this a couple of times they say goals is different
It's the offer that's withdrawn in gold
This is like, you know, the planets have retrograde motion
There's a weird anomaly that's complex to explain why is gold different
It's offer this is withdrawn and then you just wait a minute
That's because you're looking at it from the dollar
You're inside the dollar bubble and when you get yourself out of that and you look at things objectively. No the bid is being withdrawn
It's just not the dollar bid on gold. It's the gold bid on the dollar
And when the gold bid on the dollars was drawn the dollar has no value
And you won't be able to buy any commodity from oil and that gas wheat soy
All all those prices will be infinity in dollar terms
And people will call hyperinflation. They will assume it was a matter of printing too much
In a quantity of dollars
That ain't it
But that will be how people will probably perceive it
um
Is that is that possible? I mean because people people need stuff
and I mean
Well, they've been using dollars since forever
What what what else could they use? I mean not everyone's got gold to buy stuff. So
Yeah, I was gonna say the thing with these kinds of things is when you look at individual incentives
right the whole the whole premise of the Austrian school
is methodological individualism
And you can't say well
People need a currency because they need to buy stuff. Yeah, that's all true
But what is making an individual act?
And in this case, what is making the gold owner act?
If the gold owner is losing trust in the counterparty
i.e the government and the government central bank and the commercial banks
Then he says yeah, sure. I'm going to spend my dollars on food and whatever but my gold bar
I'm holding it and I won't put it into the market for this, you know arbitrage care trade
um
And so what you see in backwardation is a risk-free profit on offer
So the market is saying, you know, give me your gold bar and I'll pay you
Hypothetical and we don't have backwardation and gold today. I really want to emphasize. This is not the current condition
Suppose you had it where the spot price is six thousand dollars
So you could sell this for six thousand dollars, but again, this is a gold bar not a samsung phone
You could sell this for six thousand dollars and simultaneously
Buy a contract to have it delivered in april
for 5600 dollars
So you have to cash in your account you bought the you know, you bought the futures contract
There's no risk and there's no margin call because you have to 100 of the cash you need to take delivery
But you're just waiting for april and you pocket 400 you get the same amount of gold back and you pocket 400
I mean, what a good deal, right? But the market doesn't offer free deals
There's only one reason why the market's offering that deal and that is people are not trusting the counterparty
To put their gold into the market like that
They're saying no, thank you even in this example to four hundred dollars of free money
When that happens en masse
So it's the gold owner saying
You're not getting this
I don't trust you if I exchange this or a piece of paper at the end of the day
I'm going to be stuck with the paper the gold's going to be gone
So I won't do it
And if everybody with gold, you know does this
Then you end up with backwardation and by a series of arbitrages
I wrote a paper called when gold backwardation becomes permanent
Everybody should read that paper try to write for a lay audience
By a series of arbitrages the prices of all commodities will be driven to infinity
Now, you know, why is this because
People with dollars still desire gold
It's just the people with gold no longer desire to trade for dollars
So you have an ace massive asymmetry
So if you have dollars and you're desperate to get gold and you can't get gold directly
What might you do you might buy some crude oil
And say oh
There's a gold bid on crude oil just not on dollars
I'll buy the crude oil and sell it for gold
And that's going to drive the price of crude oil up in dollars
And down in gold terms
And that that trade will continue until the price of crude and dollars
You know skyrocket so high so fast
That people say okay the dollar is done stick a fork in it
And um, you know, that'll be that'll be called hyperinflation
And then what happens how does it resolve itself?
Well, the problem is nobody has any money that you wake up. You don't have any money
Your employer doesn't have any money the grocery store doesn't have any money
And so civilization seizes up
This is this is a really really I mean I encourage people to read the paper
It's a really bleak scenario when you can't produce or distribute energy and food
You know at large scale
When that when that happens cities become death zone
I mean, you know, you think about uh, even 18th century technology
You couldn't sustain the population of london and new york city or whatever
Right and there's not nearly enough food producers as far too many graphic designers
You know and all that that don't
You know produce food
So there's a whole reset of society
And um
I think the statistic I've read north america
In with 18th century technology would support a population of maybe 30 million people
That's it
This is a horrible scenario, right? I mean we're not there yet and I think we've got years to go
But you know you talk about gold of 5600 dollars. Yeah, this isn't good. This is like a road in trust and
obviously civil liberties all around the world and
You know people are becoming more angry more desperate more warlike
um
And poorer much poorer
And if you own assets you feel richer
The most people don't know you know gold own assets
They have their wage and you know the wage is
Diminishing and they're angry and but the problem is they're angry at the wrong party
They're mad at their boss and I think their boss is being a cheapskate
That's not really the root cause
Well, no, I mean doesn't this go back
What at least as far as 1913?
Yeah, and the creation of the federal reserve
Where the the dollar had a sort of self-destruction method
Built into it. Didn't it the sort of the is it called the can can tion effect
Um, whereby the the people who sort of print the money get most of the value and uh
Yeah, I don't
I can sort of see can tion effect
You know let's say in in medieval europe
And if let's say there was some gold rush with somebody found something massively rich gold right in gold mine
Some town in spain and gold was gushing forth there
And so merchants then would come to that town and be paid more than they should
For goods, you know, and then they would slowly distribute almost like a
Wave like you drop a pebble in the pond and the wave ripples out
The gold would ripple out across europe
But coming from the extreme western part of europe in spain, you know, it'd be rippling east and north and south
You know from there sort of almost see that
But today when they change the interest rate
Everybody has simultaneous access
to to credit at the new cheaper rates
And um
So the government benefits things they benefit. I mean this is all
You know, it's like saying cocaine is a benefit because you don't have to sleep
Um, or sugar high is a benefit. It's not really a benefit, but it's a pseudo
It seems like a benefit at the time anyway
The government has the benefit of being able to borrow
You know and spend above what it would be able to do if it was just living on tax revenues
And so the politicians get reelected. This is wildly popular people love free goodies, right and um
That meanwhile, yes the destruction of of the whole damn thing and that's the purpose of a central bank. I mean
People say well the the 1970 was 1975 humphrey hawkins law
United states the fed has a dual mandate
Most central banks many central banks have a single mandate, which is keep inflation under control
The fed is a dual mandate keep inflation under control and
Keep unemployment under control
Now it can't it can't accomplish the one
Goal let alone two but leaving that aside
Um, the real purpose
This is the window dressing. This is the pre-tax that they they promise the people
You know, don't realize any better
The real purpose is to enable the government to borrow and thereby spend more than they could taxes are unpopular
You can only get so much
And so you can only spend so much, but if you want to buy more folks by spending more you have a central bank
That's the real purpose and the rest is all
You know as I say window dressing
well
I I I've forgotten in our conversations
what level of
conspiracy theorist you are
I mean, I'm not I would be
Sorry, I'm not I'm not really
You're not okay, so I would be
10 at least
Well on a scale of 10, I'd probably be like 11. I said, did you ever see um, uh spinal tap?
Yeah, the knob was up to 11, right? So I definitely got to 11. Um, but
I mean so so there's no point in asking you like
Who who benefits from the system? Who is it? Is it just the the systemic nature of of sort of corruption and and stuff?
Or is it I mean do you believe that there is a kind of a narrow elite which arranged this system to screw us all over?
You know
I have a couple of things to say to that
I mean in general, I'm a believer that people pursue incentives
And you end up with structures that are complex and and ordered and you say, okay
Well, how could that be ordered if there wasn't somebody masterminding it?
Uh, but it's something that emerges
from you know the incentive structure
but um
I I uh
I was saying about elites. There's another piece of your question. I was going to answer. Um
Global warming is a massive con. There is no evidence whatsoever
That man-made climate change is a problem that is going to kill us that we need to amend our lifestyle and the knowledge
to deal with it. It's a non-existent problem
But how do you explain this stuff to your normie friends?
Well, I've just brought out the revised edition of my 2012 classic book
Watermelons, which captures the story of how
Some really nasty people decided to invent the global warming scare in order to
Fleece you to take away your freedoms to take away your land
It's a shocking story. I wrote it as I say in the well 2011 actually
The first edition came out and it's a snapshot of a particular era
the era when
The people behind the chime climate change scan got caught red-handed
Tinkering with the data
Torturing till it screamed in a scandal that I helped christen
Climategate, so I give you the background to to the skull jugglery that went on in in these seats of learning where
These supposed experts were informing us. We've got to act now
I rumbled their their scan. I then asked the question. Okay, if it is a scan
Who's doing this and and why?
It's a good story
I I've kept the the original book pretty much as is but I've written two new
chapters one at the beginning and one at the end
Explaining how it's even worse than we thought
I think it's a I think it still stands up. I think it's it's a good read
I obviously I'm biased, but I'd recommend it. You can buy it from
James deling poll dot co.uk
forward slash shop
You're probably fine like just go go to my website and look for it James deling poll dot co.uk
And I hope it helps keep you informed and gives you the material you need to
Bring around all those people who are still persuaded that oh, it's a disaster
We must amend our ways and appease the gods appease mother god every day. It's a scam
I
But um
I I uh
I was saying about elites. It was another piece of your question. I was gonna answer
um
Anyway, I lost my train of thought on on the other don't worry. I'm doing that all the time
We can we can we can come back to it. Um, but um, I mean
how
How does this this this play out and what is is is there is there a it's there a happy way we can um
I mean
Oh, for example, where do you think?
Gold and silver are gonna go. I mean, I know this is everyone's wondering that but
Well, to me, it's really how low does the dollar go?
I mean it fell from so in 1913 the dollar is 1500 milligrams of gold 1.5 grams
It's now 6 milligrams
You know, that's a huge loss, but of course they keep falling and eventually to be zero the question is how long get there
um
You know people
The thing about any
society
Is that there's a stable or there's a pseudo stable social order
because
everybody
slots into that social order in a certain place
and everybody
Also likes it. They may grumble to some degree, but they ultimately they want that system
Maybe they think they should be higher up in the pecking order
But everybody's invested in it
Whether it's the person getting the free goodie whether it's a bureaucrat has a job giving out that free goodie
Whether it's a politician who gets reelected by promising that free goodie
Uh, whether it's the do-gooder productive citizen who feels
You know kind of assuages some unearned guilt
Well, I feel you know, I feel bad that I made so much money, but you know, at least the government is doing good to the poor
You know, like everybody has their reason of why they
Uh support this
But if you if you said to anybody
Let's repeal all the welfare programs and replace them with nothing
Um, everybody would call you a fascist
It's kind of ironic
Fascist as a you know, very comprehensive the government controls everything in the economy
And you're saying the government should have a reduced role and they call you a fascist
Because I think fascist means anybody I don't like or anybody's view. I don't like
yeah, um
but
You know be wildly unpopular and I mean among people that are
Entrepreneurs making money in business. I mean professionals doctors lawyers architects engineers accountants
You know people working for wages the production people would not go along
If you said let's end so it's not
You know the payers versus the the mooters
And it's not like okay. You have some shadowy. We all this was going to say
I've met
any number of central bankers
In my in my travels around the world
Not not I haven't met the top people. I haven't met the Yellen's and the Powell's
And the mark Carney. Have you met the really fat one?
Uh me or gustin castings or whatever you called the guy from the bis
I've I've met people one to two levels down
right
but
Even talking with them and I've met a lot of politicians
including
Uh, you know MPs including, you know congressmen and senators in the us and and around the world as well
and
in my experience
These aren't masterminds
That are you know plotting and scheming what they are as operators
They're the people that have figured out
how to play the system
So they don't really understand how the systems put together
They don't think any more than if you have a leech
Brighting into your skin and sucking your blood and then there's a thousand of his brothers
Trying to do the same thing. Well, each isn't really thinking we're going to suck him dry
And he's going to be dead and then where are we going to be?
They don't they don't obviously these just don't think
These are people that have figured out how to operate
You know, the politicians have figured out how to blah blah blah to get elected
How to look at suit and all that but the the central bankers are bureaucrats and
You know, they've figured out how to how to have a career. So in the u.s
There's kind of this revolving
You know door and so and you know, it's almost like a board game
I remember there's a board game called careers or something back when I was a kid in the 1970s and um
You know for the for the people in the central bank
You know, they go to academia to get prestige
And maybe you know a Nobel Prize or something in economics
They go into government to get power and they go to a big investment bank to get rich
And and the key is to rotate around just the right timing and just the right amount of time in each of these to end up with
the Nobel Prize and
the
Uh, the top spot, you know, chairman of the fed
Uh, professor emeritus
Uh, you know and and have a couple hundred million dollars
And um, you know, not all of them achieve that but that's kind of the so so they learn how to operate that system
How to write the things that um, you get some popular. I'll use the example of paul vocer
Most people don't realize paul vocer's doctoral dissertation was about gold and real bills
and um
Somebody I know, you know, ask was asking about it and he's like, oh that that's a situation
I haven't thought about that and you know 40 50 years
And it was pretty clear that it was like, yeah at that time that you have to write the things to get
You know to get the dissertation committed to say yes
Stamp you and then you go on your career. He didn't really care about it. He didn't really believe in it necessarily
And so, you know, I think like a lot of these people are somewhat cynical, but they're not
They're not intellectual powerhouses. They're not masterminds of anything the politicians that I've seen
and I did a lot of uh, you know the period I'd say 20
uh, 2012 2011 to 2018 or 2019
I did a lot of work at the state government level some at the federal and some internationally like in the uk and
And other places, you know meeting with legislators
testifying on behalf of various gold
You know bills laws, whatever
Um, and I got a chance to see a lot of these legislators in action
And again, I saw some people that were cunning. I saw people that you know how to manipulate how to use words as
You know levers
Yeah, but I I didn't I haven't met if there's any masterminds there. I haven't met any of them
Um, and I I think they're I think there aren't I mean iron man uses this analogy of
You know, you see evil in the world and you think there's an evil giant behind all of it and you finally get to the
You know, uh, you finally get to the point. We're going to discover the evil and you pull away the curtain or whatever
And what you see is a nest of cockroaches
There's not like one giant. There's just like a thousand little mindless insects
feeding on the spoils
That you know, the table is tipped over the food and the beers and the carpet and they're just eating away
They weren't even capable of tipping the table over let alone have producing all that wealth in the first place
They're just feeding on it
Have you ever been
bitten by a leech
I have not
Well, it's quite interesting. Um, I went
On holiday with my wife once to um, uh, Malaysia
And we went on this forest walk which included a kind of
A bit where you go and refresh yourself in the cooling mountain stream
or something and
When we got back to our bedroom, we changed out of our sweaty jungle gear
and
my wife's
sock was absolutely
drenched with with blood it was just like sticky with blood and
You don't feel anything because they because they inject this
um
anaesthetic, right?
Um, but when they burst, it's really it's really pretty messy. I was just thinking about
Augustine castans if you were to be burst like a leech
It would be there'd be a lot of a lot of gore
But no, I like your analogy about about the leeches and and and and and cockroaches. Do you think
I read a piece today, um on substack really quite interesting about
um
It was about how
some
bankers
Including the guy in charge of the polish
bank
Have worked out that gold is their only way out of this mess and that poland has been massively buying up gold
And apparently the magic figure. Have you heard this one is
4% of you need four 4% of of um the ratio 4% of ggp in gold
um
I think france and germany have got about 4% the equivalent of 4% of their ggp in gold
The uk is currently 1% because gordon brown should be so good for gordon brown. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Um
Do you I mean is this plausible that there could be a kind of we could be going back to a gold based system or
I don't think you know
You know twitter or whatever. I always say, you know, yeah, we have to go to gold, but ain't nobody want that
If it's all people go to the same universities, whether it's oxbridge
Harvard mit
They're all evil
well, they're
Some of them definitely are a lot of them are just
Confused they learned what they learn. They think what they think
You know, but they all come from the same
Uh, you know university system and they learn the same ideas which is kanesianism
and um
You know, I
I can tell you this and without naming any names
I've met with
legislators
who have introduced
Let's introduce a bill that passed and became law, you know, something related to gold
and
You know when I read
What, you know, the libertarian press and the gold press, right about the modus and fire
You know nullify the fed and fire shot across the feds bound all these things
And I was in the meeting
With the person who was candidly it was one-on-one in his office
You know candidly telling me what his motives were
And I'm like I was there everything they're saying
It isn't true
he was thinking about
real estate utilization and and driving jobs and you know something like that and not all about the gold standard not about the fed
um
and so
I
I would bet
You know, and I don't know the the the polish central bank
Guys though, you know, it could be it could be an exception. I've been a few central bankers who are definitely gold people
um, but the ones I have met
they
Can't really express. I mean their their colleagues know they're into gold but which is fine
But they can't really express the gold thesis and any kind of policy
Uh, even conversation because it's just not
You know, it's just not acceptable. It's outside the overton window
um
So the the polls been on massive got a massive gold buying spree there. You know that
Yeah, I mean there's a lot of central banks. Obviously that have bought some gold
But I think I think their reasons
Some of it is
Okay, what if we end up locked out of the u.s. Dollar system and the swift system?
It'll give us something we can spend
Part of it is I just think good old-fashioned price going up
Right. So we have liabilities may have assets if assets go up
We have you know free capital on the balance sheet which allows us to get more liabilities
um
So I have a funny feeling that I mean without knowing that particular guy
In the cases where I have had conversations
There isn't I mean
Here's the kind of ironic contrast
I think in many parts of the world
There is a desperate flailing about looking for an alternative to the dollar
Um, but within the fiat currency system, there is no alternative
There's no other currency that remotely remotely comes close to the dollar. So they're stuck with it
And you know, it's a love hate relationship and the more the u.s
Does things that aggravates the rest of the world the more people look for alternatives
um
but
So they really want to see gold come back
as as money
I don't think so
So they think that maybe they'll use gold for settlement between governments
You know for international trade
I think some of them are thinking that
But the good the good news in all this right everything I've said so far is they're pretty bleak
Yeah, we've got any good news in any of this conversation so far. The good news is that
When gold starts to be used in settlement, that's the first step
And to quote gandalf from lord of the rings
Things have now been set in motion that cannot be undone
That will lead to the next thing or the next thing the next thing
Not because that there's a mastermind
scripting it but because
Things have an inexorable path water flows downhill
And so you'll end up with more and more use of gold
in a variety of ways
and um
Obviously we monetary metals want to be there with solutions to facilitate all this
And yeah
I was going to ask you this because I think when we first spoke
It was pretty near the beginning of monetary metals
um
I mean has it has it worked for you has your idea worked?
Yeah, that's the
Everyone's in a while. I'm almost kind of amazed like holy cow. You know it worked because the idea was right
So there's an economic idea that interest interest rate is a regulator of flow in a gold standard
The lower the interest rate the more the gold tends to leave the market
Higher the interest rates and more the gold is pulled into the market
Okay, economic idea and um, but the business thesis was if we are for interest on gold
People will bring their gold into positive
And um, that's one of those entrepreneurial ideas that you have to test. I mean, there's no
Market research you could do. There's no poll
You know you gardeners and have any data on the demand for gold yield because there isn't you know
At that time wasn't any you have to go do it
And uh, we did it and absolutely it's been an exponential growth curve since 2016
And it continues on the same
On the same curve, you know to this day
Well, I'm I'm happy for you. I I mean I
I thought when I first met you, you know, eccentric eccentric guy
You told me the great story about how you sold your first business
By the skin of your teeth
Okay, I mean this could be a completely different story, couldn't it if you hadn't been able to sell it before the the old buyer
Went bust or whatever
I would have had to hold it another
You know three or four years that you know the market for early stage companies to sell reopened in
I don't know 2012 2013 and you know
But yeah, I would have been it would have been a tough slog
But without without prying too much. I mean, have you made loads of money from your you your new venture?
Was it going going really well? Yeah, this is going really good. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's good
I'm happy for you. I like I like I like a bit of you know a bit of good news and success
um
and
It's funny because I've I've been
Advertising you on my
podcast mainly. I mean, I'll be honest
I mean, I I I do like the product, but it's mainly because I'm just I'm just so damn lazy
I haven't I haven't been
I can't be bothered to go to the effort of of of
Going looking around for for new people to put adverts on and there's a slot where I have an advert
And I just well, you've probably noticed I hadn't changed the advert for ages. So I just thought yeah
Anyway, somebody somebody said to me the other day. Why are you advertising this company monetary metals because isn't this
Oh, I can't remember they were concerned about it being paper gold or something or you know not not not
Just dangerous to invest in
and I said
Well, as far as I understand that the business model and I've talked to Keith a couple of times about this at least
It does make sense. But just just briefly
Remind people how it is that you are able to pay
interest on gold and when they when they when they invest or
in in monetary metals
That the the gold that or the silver that they're investing in I mean it's there, isn't it?
It's it's not it's not like paper gold
It's we're a conventional
Part of it is a conventional gold storage program
Not too dissimilar from any of the others that have been around for you know, 25 years
You know you open a account, you know, you wire us some funds buy gold gold sitting in your account
You know if you want to liquidate it tomorrow
I mean there's no point to it, but you could liquidate it tomorrow. We send you the funds back or you can redeem it in metal
I think a lot of them don't do that or they make it expensive or difficult, but we'll redeem you in metals
Okay, I want bars, you know sent to my address and we'll do that
But the real point of it. I mean, we're not really a bullion dealer
Not efficient setup to do that
um
The real point of the whole thing is we unlike any other gold storage program
We will present to you a series of opportunities to put your metal out to work
And um, and so doing you know get an interest rate or get a yield on it
And so leasing at its heart is very simple. You walk into a jewelry store, you know here in in dubai, let's say
I'm in dubai at the moment
And um, you know jewelry is not like in the west
Where it's about fine art and it's very fine and very delicate and
You know four grams of gold is selling for seventeen thousand dollars at some, you know designer
Um, you know jeweler
It's sold by weight here
The store will often have a screen displaying the current gold price
And then they'll charge what they call a making charge, you know, essentially a markup or a premium
Which would be, you know, two percent or five percent or something like that and they're buying it by weight
And so I always laugh when I talk to you know, the analyst types
That talk about where there's investment demand versus jewelry demand in this part of the world
Investment jewelry is investment demand
It's a whole they're putting money around their neck on a necklace. That's that simple
So jewelry store here and this is high purity stuff 21 to 22 carat generally
um
depending on the culture
and
That jewelry store will have
50 or more kilos of gold in it
There's nothing like if you walk into a jewelry store on the high street in london
There'd be nowhere near that much gold. It's fine. It's delicate. It's hollow
The weight of the gold just isn't that much
But here 50 kilos now today's prices 50 kilos is
What is that? I don't know eight nine million dollars
Right, I mean gold prices got up so much that so that's we find you know, and then, you know, any of these bigger companies
They have hundreds of showrooms
globally
You know has to be financed somehow. I mean nobody has that you know change in the pocket or you know between the
Cushions and the sofa that has to be financed
And conventional finances you go to the bank and you borrow and you pledge the gold is collateral and you borrow
You know, eight nine million dollars. The problem is what the gold price drops
You still owe eight or nine million dollars, but now you have a seven million dollar asset
You're bankrupt. You're insolvent
So what they do is they borrow 10 or 12 million
They buy eight or nine million worth of of gold and they put the rest in a margin account to hedge
Which means shorting gold futures
Now if the gold price rises
You get a margin call. It's just a mess
And you've given how much the gold price has risen. These guys are sick and tired of all the margin calls
So what we do is we lease the metal
We will you know, so we have the investors metal sitting in the vault
We present the deal to the investors and say, okay, you know, here's this jeweler and so we've done
We're about to do a a couple of showrooms for an Indian jewelry brand called Kalyan in the uk
One's in Leicester and the other one. I'm not sure where it is
And um
We say, okay, you know, here's the deal and here's uh, you know, the interest rate here's the company whatever
The investors say yes, then we have
You know, we have let's say let's say that we're doing one showroom
We have 50 kgs of gold in the vault. They have 50 kgs. Actually, there's a haircut
They have to have 55 or 60 kgs of metal in the store. Okay, we're gonna swap
So now the investors own the inventory in the store and the jeweler owns the metal in the vault
Then we will liquidate the metal in the vault. They want the cash, obviously
Wire than the cash and the investors own earrings and the necklaces and the rings and and all that in the store
Every day the jeweler sells a little bit
But that's why there's one of the reasons why there's a haircut
So the inventory level never goes below the 50 kgs every day. They sell a little bit every day
They buy more inventory from their suppliers. There's always at all times you walk in that store. It's always very well stocked
um, and so they're paying for the privilege of
Of having the capital to stock their store
That's how the investors get paid. I mean, we make a we make a spread we make a fee on it
investors are getting paid the jeweler's happy to pay because
That's how they fill the showroom with inventory
and
has I mean
As I understand it particularly with silver
the sort of weird situation that these
extraordinary price rises have created
A certain amount of chaos in the silver buying and selling markets. Is that right?
There's some really perverse things that have happened in silver
and um
You know and in the precious metals markets the primary suppliers of
The products that everybody wants are the refiners. I mean the mines produce it
But nobody wants to buy the mine the mine raw material. Uh, it's called doray. It's not pure
I mean it might be 90 purity and it has all kinds of kind of lead in it could have mercury whatever
Um, so it goes through refiner to be refined into bullion grade metal
The silver refiners
The cost of hedging let's say last october
It was two dollars and a 15 cents an ounce to hedge
Refining margins are nowhere near two dollars the silver
Maybe today at today's silver prices. Maybe they are but at that time silver was a lot cheaper
They don't make anywhere near them. So it was unhingible
So the refiners and these are so there's a there's a scarcity of silver which causes backwardition
Which causes the hedging cost to go, you know through the roof
so, um
The primary producers are saying we don't want to buy any more feedstock
Because we can't afford you can't hedge it
So that slows down or halts the delivery of metal to the market
That would be the thing that would alleviate the shortage
And they can't because of the perverse
incentives of this
Keynesian system going off the rails essentially
Uh, the backwardation prevents them from operating. It you know puts a spanner in in the gears
um
So the silver refiners
Uh, they're they're the cause of the blockage right now of the lack of no that was october and you know that subsided and
But yeah, I mean generally in silver
It's hard to to hedge. It's hard to
You know in the london market they call it leasing. That's a different product from what we do but
It's hard to lease. It's
Volatile is how i'm the price is volatile, but you know hedging costs and and the lease will be what do you mean by hedging?
so if you
Let's say you're a refiner and you know, you have a load of
um
you know 50 tons of
Some combination of scrap silver people's old silverware and tea services and candelabra and whatever
And you know your job is to melt that down and turn it into
You know three nines or four nines silver, you know sterling is 925 right 92 and a half percent pure
That was the standard for centuries for
You know dinnerware and tableware and all that
Um, so you say you need to melt that down
You can't go and buy today the silver price is what 120 dollars and you buy
You know 50 tons of silver at 120 dollars
You can't you can't take that risk. What if the price drops to 100 dollars to do that in a new york minute?
You you'd be a bankrupt and you'd lose so much money to be dead
So you have to hedge it you have to go into the futures market or some market
and
Short silver so that if the silver price goes down
Your short is adding just as much cash as the metal is losing
So that you you're not neutral to the price
Otherwise it's too risky
um
And that's how everybody who deals in metal the larger ones. I mean there could be really small coin dealers that don't hedge
But anybody who's whose larger scale, especially if they're using finance
They have to hedge they have to be neutral to the price
Or otherwise they're taking a risk of bankruptcy if the price drops
And the more the price rises
You get that parabola which certainly has occurred in silver arguably even in gold to a lesser degree
You know when that happens there's a risk of you know, you wake up and silver is minus 27 dollars
I'm not saying that's gonna happen, but it could
And so would you bet your entire business? I mean your family's been in the silver refinery business for generations
Do you want to be the idiot who lost it all in one price move?
Over a weekend a monday morning you wake up the bankruptcy
Nobody wants to be in that in that position
That's really interesting
So that explains why people have still despite this insanely rising market
People have still got these short positions in silver
as a hedge
Well, just say anybody who has a physical metal
Inventory or work in progress or anything like that
You know has got a hedge
And so yeah, they are
One of the groups that use the futures market say, you know future futures market users. Absolutely
And what does it mean when there's a silver squeeze? Are we are we having a silver squeeze now?
um
I'm not sure I would say that
um
You know squeeze the same thing that happened in the stock if a lot of people are short not to have I mean the hedgers
Wouldn't really be squeezed in the same way, but people can also use futures to speculate either long or short
And because futures give you 20 to 1 leverage
So if you want to make a price bet
Doesn't take that much capital to make a very big bet if you want to
So, you know when a lot of people
Especially if something's falling, you know when something is rising everybody wants to bet on the long side
Because they want to bet it's going to go out further
When something's falling, they want to bet it's going to go down. So they short it
If you'll get it goes down and down when the more it goes down more people are shorting it at some point
It doesn't take that much buying and the short sellers are heads of stop loss orders
And then so that causes the price to rise and the next guy hits his stop loss and that causes the price to rise
And so you can destroy all the short positions
The only way to close the short position is to buy buy to close
So all that short has pushed it down from here to here
And then the squeeze will push it from here right back here or maybe you know, maybe beyond
So
You know playing with leverage is a dangerous
You know if you just own metal and you're stacking there's no danger to it, right?
So even if you bought silver at 120 bucks and then hypothetically drops to 60
Okay, you may not be happy about it, but it's not going to take food off the table
It's not going to threaten, you know your your solvency, right?
If you do that with leverage
I mean you can be ruined
Yeah, so it's dangerous stuff and we generally say, you know
Don't play with leverage unless you really know what you're doing unless you're really going to be on it monitoring it
Being awake at night looking at your position
Because some you know your your nighttime is staying somewhere else
And somebody's trading and the price could move and then even you're in deep trouble
Yes
Yes, I mean
I'm presuming there's going to be a correction at some point
You would think you know, there would have to be
um
Now what I can tell you is that if I look at the gold basis chart
The gold basis has been pretty steady as the price has been rising a lot
Which means that the demand for metals has been there all you know, it's not just people buying futures
It's it's people buying metal
and silver
You know the basis was holding steady until the last
I don't know maybe $15
$20 at that point the basis began rising. So now it's people piling into futures
Which pushes the price up further and then that's the setup for
You know the correction
So you look at a price even if the fundamentals are strong, which I think they are
um
In the macro, you know background drop and the geopolitical backdrop, you know, it is what it is
You know, all the people that were buying this story or buying this narrative at 40 bucks, obviously absolutely right
And then the narrative and the story remain is it still right to buy at $120?
Arguably maybe yeah, but you know, there's a much greater risk of a big correction
You know given the the parable run that we've had
Yes
but I was
I was like hunting with this guy
This week an old an old English
squire
And I was just chatting as you do about stuff and I was talking about
silver
And he was completely unaware of anything that had been happening in the silver markets
And I was thinking that that that guy is probably more representative of the world than
I mean, this is a guy from from who
Probably had money in his and his family and stuff
But I'm sure that guy's more representative of the world than
Me nutcase
chatting about silver Western world
You need to go to India
There's a population of 1.4 billion people and all of them are screaming mad for gold
I mean, yeah
You have that untouchable guy
Who's cleaning the poop out of the streets and he's being paid a minimum wage of two dollars a day, right?
And he will have some tiny little fleck of gold that he saved up to buy and be super proud of it and want more
Right you go to Turkey
So the Turkish banking system offers
Gold denominator bank accounts like it's a real bank account with an i-band you could pay
You know send in receive gold the way you would
You know cash
There's a population of 85 million people in turkey. There's 120 million gold bank accounts
in turkey
And people don't really trust the banking system all that much there
That's not the preferred way of owning gold
And yet there's more than one gold bank account for capita. It's kind of like guns in the us
Um, oh can we open an account in turkey like that?
Uh, I don't know
It's an open account about the turkey
So without that explains why you're in in jubai
Yeah, I mean we're kind of at the crossroads of the arab world which loves gold
Maybe arguably slightly less than the turks who love gold. Maybe arguably slightly less than the indians
And those three worlds are here the fourth world that loves gold would be asian, you know, the chinese
Yeah, it's gonna say the chinese big on it as well
And you know, and they're chinese people here in this market, but not not that many. It's really
you know, so
So that I mean in a way
We have a completely distorted
View in the west about
Gold and silver we don't we have no no feeling for it
You know it was destroyed by
You know making it illegal in the u.s. That was never illegal in the uk, but
You know three or four generations of
Kids going to school being taught that money was because the paper printed with government
You know pictures and government slogans on it
You know have eventually done their
done their magic
To indoctrinate and program
You know people's brains and then it's financial regulation, you know if you're a financial advisor
There's a reasonable and prudent standard
Right and if you put something in somebody's portfolio or too much of it and the price moves against them
You know, you could be censured by the regulator lose your license, etc
You know, if you have too much gold in somebody's portfolio, that's not reasonable and prudent
According to the state like so it's that right. Are there still are there still
Regulations on that?
Well, that's the standard. I mean in the u.s. At least the standard being, you know, you're responsible for reasonable and prudent investment decisions
Now I don't think the regulation names gold specifically
But they you know the financial world regards gold as a valuable commodity
So if you if you're a financial advisor and you say, okay
I want 50% gold in your portfolio or whatever some big number like that and the gold price drops
30%
I think
You're on your back foot at best in the defense of posture
Arguing this was reasonable and prudent and they're going to say those are risky commodity and the proof is it just lost 30%
You know, you just hurt you just hurt your client by 30. Yeah
everybody, you know out of
I hate the term abundance of caution, but you know fear is a regulator chilling effect
Whatever term you want to use. Yeah financial advisors will shy away from it
You know kids are learning, you know, if you go to google images
Or being images you type in money
You want pictures of money?
You'll get page after page after page after page of pieces of paper with green ink on them
You won't see gold coins
This is there has been so much brainwashing
I mean, I I I speak from personal experience here if I had my way
I would have put everything
Into gold and silver because it was like or or or silver miners and gold miners
but
when I
proposed this
To my to my wife
She was she started quoting back at me all this stuff
She'd read in the financial sections of newspapers and all the friends saying where
You've got to have a balanced portfolio
and and you've got to allow for different
and I said but
gold and silver are really going to go stratospheric what why
What's the point of investing in things that aren't going to go stratospheric?
And she was like, yeah, but what if I said, but it's not even a what it's a one-way bet. Do you not understand?
but
But I mean again, this is how most people have been trained to think
well, you know, there was there was a genius to Cain's evil
and and fdr's evil in 1933
That by divorcing gold from what then became to be understood as money, which is a wrong understanding or whatever
Then, you know, gold has price volatility. So if you're conservative, you know, you have expenses you have to cover
owning gold in the short term could
You know if you go down and you can get hurt
and
You know, and and they're and they're longest periods. I mean
God help anybody that was buying gold in 1980
You know thinking we're gonna have imminent hyperinflation
They would have had to hold it as it went down from what 800 or $50 to $200
by 2000 and and gordon brown and all that and then the gold bull market
But you know, like somebody could
You know get old and pass away and now their kids have the gold before the price recovered now
Was it 2000 or 2001 to 2008 the price was rising
in 2008 there was 30 drop
Yeah, no gold dropped a lot less than anything else
And it was the first to make new all-time highs by january of 2009
It had recovered the high that it had in in you know, spring of 2008
Right. It was it was past $1000 again in july in january 2009
um, but that you know, and then
So so the price of gold went bananas from january 09
to august of 2011
Then it made its peak of just short of $2000 as everyone knows and then
what eight-year period seven-year period of
downward, you know price action
So during that time, you know, if you think in dollar terms your value was eroding away
After that, you know, if you bought it in early 2019, let's say
Yeah, it's been an explosive upside
And so it goes through these goes through both sides of the cycle
And um, you know that creates risk, especially if you need your money in the meantime
So have you personally got lots of money in
I mean, I'm sorry lots of money lots of silver physical silver
I'm sir. I don't have a huge amount of silver. I tend to be more skewed towards gold, but I do have some silver
Yeah
So, I mean you must be feeling a bit flusher at the moment then you were six months ago
the so-called wealth effect
um, now my
I'm a vast disproportion of my net worth is in monetary metals equity
So that's really interesting since our revenues are gold
um, you know for every ounce of revenue we make
That's now worth $5,600 versus say $2,600 a couple years ago
So monetary metals share price has gearing to the gold price
Uh, and so
Yeah, I feel pretty good about my net worth from the monetary metal side
So not only are we growing revenue in gold ounces, but the each the value of each of those ounces is
massively higher in dollar terms
So that you know, that's a pretty good
Uh, you know place to be but are you are you living in jubile now?
I am yeah, right for what I mean. So
Better tax arrangement
You know, if you're an american
You don't benefit from that. So if you're british
Once you leave the you know the borders of the uk you make income somewhere else. You don't get tax
Yeah, as an american citizen no matter where I live. I have to pay tax to the uos government
That sucks, you know, you can shelter. I think 130 thousand dollars
According to the tax code
That's it
I mean, are you happy in jubile? Is it does it suit you?
It provides a cool place
um
You know the u.s. Like everywhere else, you know in the west
You know the cultures, you know become divisive, you know a bit nasty
You know where I used to live in in in arizona was pretty good
We didn't have all the idiots in the streets blocking traffic and you know doing vandalism and all these things
um
but um
You know back up pretty nasty and the other thing is in in the west
You know, you know, a lot of people will look at you as scants
Uh, you know if you're successful, there's this envy
You know thing going on
And in jubile, you don't have either of those things. There's no social unrest here people are happy
And people are here to make money. So if you're making money, that's okay great
And there's people that are fantastically wealthy driving around gold plated Rolls Royces and all these things
And you know, there isn't at least not visibly
You envy everyone's like iranya, you know, this is cool
So, you know, the culture is pleasant here. It was absolutely a first world city
Uh, you know the lifestyle is fantastic here
Weather is bloody hot in the summer. I will say that
And and summer means like may through october is you know, it's yeah, yeah, yeah
Yeah, I
I'm not a big fan of air con
And also, I think the lack of lack of sort of organic vegetables might might be a bit of a deal breaker for me
You can get any food you want
Here I mean, it's it's obviously important, but you want an organic veg, you know, you certainly can
Oh, okay
but
pork not too available here, but
That's about it. Alcohol is plum to full and everywhere. I mean, it's
It's it's become a very metropolitan cosmopolitan, you know, city
Um
Oh, I suddenly thought, you know what?
My friend Michelle is in Dubai at the moment and I and she was asking me
Did I know anybody in Dubai and I and I didn't think I did but no, I know I know that you're there
But I think she's I think she's going um
She'll probably be back flying home by the time we this this thing
finishes, um, okay
Um, what's the other thing I wanted to ask you?
Dubai and
Oh, I don't know. I think we've sort of we've sort of
Oh, it's something about silver gold
Oh, there probably are questions I should have asked you Keith, but you know, whatever can always
There's always
I'm anyway, I'm I'm really glad that that it's that it's that it's um, it's worked out
and so I shouldn't I shouldn't be
Not not advertising you because it sounds like you're a good you're a good thing
I mean, it's been a good thing and and we advertise on your show because it's working
Yeah, it's pulling it's pulling costumers
Well, yeah, well, you know, you haven't actually paid many money for advertising anymore
I just I just get my my my cut from the um from the
That's the thing. I'm so bad at business that I don't even like
I I can't I can't
I'm I'm much interested in making in making the product and talking to interesting people and just like
Anyway, it's good. It's been good
um
So, uh, well if I'm in Dubai
I'll I'll come and say hi
Because, you know, we didn't we never had that thing when you were in london. Did we but when you wait the trains broke or something or
It didn't work. That's right. You were like stuck halfway between. I was stuck at north hampton or something and yeah
I remember that and it was like you even he sent me the text message like you were stranded on train in the middle
It wasn't even a station like between that's right
And it was really annoying estimated three and a half hours. I was like, oh, that's not gonna work
No, let's we'll head back home
So we we we still haven't actually met are we?
No, I'll let you know the next time i'm in london and then we'll try to get together
Yeah, yeah, okay. That's good. Um, well, thank you. Um, so
Where well, I suppose I'll put down the the the the thing where they can find
monetary metals
So you don't think it'd be because I I I I hear also hear people saying
Like I've missed the boat haven't I is why why why should I get?
silver or gold now
You know if you if you want to make a trade there's definitely some risk at this at this price point
What I say to people is if you don't own any gold
You should go out and buy some
Um, and it's not a function of price. It's a matter of having some gold
Um, not as a speculation not of something you would ever sell for currency
But because it protects you against all kinds of
Unknown, you know black swans and unforeseeable things
That I you know, I think are coming
Um for a trade, you know on our website. We publish daily, you know updates of the basis
And and you know some analysis related to that so people can see
Where you know supply and demand is currently running and I give you some idea for it's not a timing indicator
Everybody gives me some indication of the
Tension in the market is the tension pulling the price up and reversion is going to tend to want to snap back down
Is is is the tension pulling down? It's going to want to step up. We give you that you know sort of picture
There's there's going to be a war soon. What what what effect would war how I mean
Trump's definitely going to be probably has invaded Iraq. I mean, sorry Iran attacked Iran by the time
um
This podcast goes out. What what effect is war going to have on the golden silver price?
I mean generally high, you know when trust is in decline
You know people want to dump and the currency is a
uh unsecured credit
So as you lose trust or lose confidence
You think you know, I'm going to trade some of those currency units for something real
So, you know the gold price goes up
We'll see. Um
I don't really know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't
I don't pretend
Excuse me. I don't pretend to have any
Particularly knowledge about what's going to happen. I mean, I see what he says like everybody else, but
um, we'll have to see on that but war
Tends to uh support a higher gold price
No, okay, so I'm keeping you up. It's probably what time is it there?
It's 10 p.m. Oh
I hate I hate doing podcasts late at night. So I'm I'm sorry to have um, no, no worries. I'll catch you up
um, well, that's great keith um, and um, everyone else
I hope you've um enjoyed my relationship with um
Military metals over the year and some of you bought some I kind of think those of you did did the right thing
I've uh, you know, what do I know? I mean, I'm just a kind of
crazy gold bug conspiracy theorist
um
Thank you again again keith. Um, and
Everyone, please support me. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber and um, yeah
Like my stuff. Thank you