This war is different as NATO countries are now deploying.
Firstly, welcome to the new studio here.
Finally finished building it today, still need to finish the lighting a little bit,
and a few other things, but a big welcome.
I wanted to stream right away in the new studio today.
I want to just open by talking about how I think this war is going to be different
from a lot of things that we've seen before.
I don't think this is going to be, I heard a comment today.
Someone said, it's just another Venezuela.
Where do I even start with that comment first of all?
No, this isn't just another Venezuela, let's just get that out of the way.
This isn't a raid in the middle of the night with taking out Maduro and things like that.
This isn't that first and foremost.
The amount of people that think this is just going to blow over in the next few days,
which is another comment I heard today.
People have been very, very misinformed,
and I'm surprised because the BBC, if you've been following it,
probably best not to, is doing a great job of making,
the last time I saw this sort of output from the BBC, it was COVID,
and that's not a good thing.
It reminded me of all the lockdowns and the travel restrictions,
and actually let's start with that before we go on to the NATO stuff.
Let's just start with that,
because as I was thinking about all of these travel restrictions that we had during those years,
what popped up today was this.
Britons have been warned not to travel to all of these different countries.
Here it is, 76 countries now,
and as I was looking through this list,
I couldn't quite understand why some of these countries are on there.
For example, I was in Malaysia, absolutely fine.
I've been in Thailand, absolutely fine.
I can't even understand why these would be serious risk countries to go to.
Some of the others, the UAE, yeah, I wouldn't be flying there right now,
as well as a lot of other countries in the Middle East.
That's the last place I would be looking to travel to right now.
And it's funny, a lot of people were commenting.
I was actually in the supermarket and a man came up to me and said,
you know what you said the other night?
It's always this way, you know what you said the other night
about all these people that are on cruise ships and on holiday in Dubai and places,
and now they've panicked and they've rushed to the airport and they're flying back.
He said, I thought about what you said,
and I actually messaged my sister and told her,
why have you rushed to this airport?
There's thousands of you in this one spot in an airport,
and that's probably the first place a missile is going to hit.
So then she thought about it and got out the airport.
I mean, it's interesting, you know, some of the,
it's just logical, rational thought, I think,
but to some people, they, I guess, don't see it this way.
So there's all of these now and it's interesting
because it does remind me of more lockdowns.
Is this going to be an opportunity to just stop travel all around the world?
And I think this is going to escalate.
If you think it's already escalated and this is it, which some people do,
I don't think so. I really don't think so at all.
Let's have a look at a couple of the stories then.
So we'll begin with the NATO deployment.
So Greece, France and Germany are now sending forces to Cyprus,
and this is all around what they are calling a soft article for trigger.
So let's go over a couple of this.
Both Greece and France have agreed to send frigates to Cyprus
after a UK airbase was targeted.
Okay, now the first point we've got to talk about here is you're probably wondering,
hold on, why isn't the UK sending a frigate?
Why isn't the UK sending any of their warships?
Well, embarrassingly to say, it's because they can't.
The UK hardware, naval hardware is either in dry dock or getting repairs
or it's around the UK right now.
So that's why and it was really interesting that Stammer said,
oh, now he used the word now.
Okay, I always listen to the linguistics.
He said, now we're preparing to send a force to Cyprus for its defense.
And you'd think, surely you must have thought about that weeks ago
when Trump's been saying it's going to kick off in Iran.
Surely he must have thought, well, or the generals or the naval,
they must have all thought, well, Cyprus could be attacked here.
No, they didn't think about that at all.
But also, I've got a kind of fringe theory on this as well.
So it was apparently one missile that was sort of intercepted by NATO.
And it was flying, actually, this is Turkey.
I want to link these together.
So there was this one missile that was flying over Turkey.
And they said because it's a NATO country, it's triggered Article 4,
which can trigger Article 5, etc.
I think that's very loose, first of all.
We don't actually know where that missile...
I mean, it's bad either way.
Let's just say that, throw that down.
It's bad either way, wherever it was going.
But it makes me wonder,
have some of these leaders just been waiting for this opportunity
to get into the war?
Keir Starmer's done a massive U-turn now.
Let's go on to some of these articles.
Save me, keep talking nonstop.
But this was the first one then.
This was Greece, France.
They're sending frigates to defend Cyprus because the UK can't.
They're dispatching a warship.
And the next one then,
France is sending land-based anti-drone and anti-missile systems
to the country.
Germany has also responded.
They use the word positively to request to send a warship.
So this is Germany is now getting involved.
They said they weren't going to send any hardware,
and now they are.
This equipment will arrive in Cyprus as soon as possible.
Greece has already sent four F-16 fighter jets
while two of its frigates are on the way.
So again, this is not de-escalation,
which is what some people are saying.
This is definitely escalation for sure.
100% escalation.
And there's a lot more going on.
They said this proves in practice that Greece is paving the way
for how far the European Union should respond to such cases.
So they're really setting it out as to how they should respond,
how the EU, as well as NATO countries, should respond.
But I think we're pretty much one missile away from NATO
just going all in on this.
They're already talking about a meeting for the article 4, article 5.
But what's interesting to me is that this drone
that struck the RAF base was...
If you look at the different reports on it,
the media was saying it was an Iranian missile slash drone.
They didn't know it at the first.
And it was targeting the British base
because they're an ally of the US.
Stammer was very quick to say,
no, no, no, we're honoring international law.
I don't know who he was appeasing.
Was it Iran? Was it the British public?
Was it certain groups within the British public?
I'd say it probably was.
And now he's just done this massive U-turn.
It's like he keeps flipping.
And I think that's probably why Trump said
he's no Winston Churchill
because he's been very indecisive over this whole thing.
I think the important thing as a leader is
it doesn't matter which way you go,
but it's important to be decisive
and just make a decision.
Make a decision and go with that decision.
Rather than what we're seeing at the moment,
it's just all over the place.
It's causing a lot of chaos.
But the other thing I was thinking about this sort of drone was
now we're getting reports that it was actually a Houthi drone,
which is a proxy ally with Iran,
one of the other forces.
So it makes me think,
well, was it?
It could have been anywhere.
And I'm just throwing some sort of fringe theories out here,
but you'd never know.
This could have been some rogue operator doing it
to pull in NATO and pull in some other country,
someone that's got something to gain
by this massive war ramping up.
Let me know your thoughts on that in the comments.
So Kirstammer has now,
so initially he said that British bases would not be used.
He said he'd informed Donald Trump,
despite his criticism that British bases would not be used.
Now he's going to flip it.
We'll come to that in a moment.
But this was the story on the missile.
So Turkey says NATO defenses destroyed an Iranian missile,
risking war expansion.
So they've actually said they took this down
and the block allies are now involved in this.
This could invoke Article 4,
which could lead to Article 5.
We don't know where the missile was heading,
but they've said that Iran's targeting of Turkey,
which has the second largest military in the block,
was a serious escalation.
So I'm just going over the main points of this story
rather than telling you the whole thing.
But they've now said that they're going to get together
and have an opinion on this.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegser said there was no sense
that the incident would trigger Article 5,
which has only been invoked once before after 9-11.
And this would mark a major escalation in the conflict.
So Starmer then has now said, again, a flip,
US planes flying out of UK bases, special relationship in action.
So he's done this flip all over.
Again, he's saying he's allowed the US to use the military bases.
He said this is the special relationship in action.
He's told Parliament that British jets are shooting down
drones and missiles to protect American lives
in the Middle East on our joint bases.
That is the special relationship in action.
Sharing intelligence every day to keep our people safe, he said.
Hanging on to President Trump's latest words
is not the special relationship, he added.
So again, we're just seeing this flip-flop all the time.
We've got the German Chancellor Merz is at the White House at the moment
and it's kind of interesting if you saw any of those clips.
But you just see even these leaders that talk really tough elsewhere
is interesting how as soon as they sit in front of Trump
they are like puppy dogs.
Trump will criticise other countries or the leaders
and they won't say a word.
They'll just smile and nod.
It's very interesting the power dynamics that have now shifted
from before you heard all the things that they would say about Trump
very heavily critical, all the things.
And now they've just done this mess.
They're just completely submissive.
It reminded me, as you know, I've got chickens and animals and stuff like that.
And I was watching today some of the roosters that have grown up that I hatched out.
They weren't meant to be roosters but one clutch was 100% roosters.
If you hatch out chickens, you know the odds of that are very slim.
And I was watching and I was getting a little bit older.
And there was one rooster and he was always the submissive one.
He was always very submissive.
And now all of a sudden he's just become the dominant one
and the others are all completely submissive.
As soon as he walks through, they all just scatter all.
They do this and they squat.
And that was where I was thinking about Trump today
and what's actually changed.
It's like these leaders are just...
It's very interesting the dynamic now.
Very interesting indeed.
So what else then?
When Starmer told Parliament, he does not believe in regime change from the skies
which is what he previously said.
Okay, now is this the Royal Navy's biggest humiliation?
This was another one I was reading today.
So you think the British Navy used to have the most powerful...
It was the most powerful Navy in the world.
Now it couldn't even deploy to protect the British base in Cyprus.
The Navy now struggles to put ships out to sea
either because of a lack of manpower
or because what's left of the fleet is undergoing maintenance.
With both it's 3.2 billion pound aircraft carriers in port.
This is terrible.
You read through this.
Hold on, let me show you this part.
So Kirstam announced on Tuesday that HMS Dragon,
a Type 45 destroyer would be sent to the region alongside some helicopters.
So this is a 45 type destroyer here.
So again, not sending its most powerful weaponry at all here.
And just a quick one.
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So what else then?
They're even talking about taking days for any British reinforcements
to arrive in the region, but it's not just the reinforcements.
They're also prepping for escalations.
So if you walk around with a hammer,
eventually you're going to use it as how I look at these things.
It said in contrast, though, Macron, the French president,
has took a hard line approach.
Well, we'll look at that comment very loosely indeed.
There isn't much I'd say he has a hard line on, but anyway.
So he's sending two additional warships.
He's saying he's sending some powerful warships to make a statement.
He's sending the crown jewel of the French free, the Charles de Gaulle.
This is the aircraft carrier with a number of their top fighter jets.
So he said that, you know, he's, it's kind of embarrassing.
It's obvious that he's, he did that public league saying he's going to help out the UK.
Yes, kind of embarrassing.
Italy as well.
Another one.
Italy is looking to get involved now.
They're going to be sending military aid to Gulf states.
This has just been announced.
Air defences, all sorts of military equipment,
T-batteries also that can intercept these ballistic missiles.
They are sending a lot of equipment over to the region here then.
Let's have a look with that.
Okay.
Another important one I saw is, and I had to wait until this was verified was the
Qatar is or Qatar is now about to fully shut down.
If they haven't already done it by the time I started streaming their LNG today.
So liquefied natural gas.
This will be quite serious.
It really will.
You're going to see some spikes in prices here as well because it takes around two weeks just to get the whole thing started again.
So if it's close today, nothing's going to move for a couple of weeks once they actually open this up again.
You know, it's the second largest LNG exporter in the world.
It really is.
Again, we've got another big one that this is the oil tankers is dropped by unconfirmed,
but the current reports from the ship tracker is somewhere around 90% or 92%.
They're saying this is how much it's all dropped by all of the traffic through the straight.
So this again will hit.
So we've got gas and now we've got oil prices that are about to be hit.
And just remember my forecast.
If we get to $120 a barrel, which we're not anywhere near yet.
Let's just show you the latest.
We get here we go.
So it's 70.
It's even gone up as I'm.
Look at this.
It's all the way up to 74 now.
Goodness me work to 74 on the Brent Brent crude as well up to 80.
Let's just refresh.
It's at 81 now 81.3.
So this is really taking off.
This could be pretty serious indeed.
It really could at this rate.
Now, I was actually thinking of one other thing as well.
And that is that if you were Iran, you could quite easily cripple a lot of the Middle East.
I know I have these weird thoughts, ladies and gentlemen, sometimes,
but I was thinking you could literally cripple almost the entire Middle East with one ballistic missile.
Hopefully they don't think of this and watch this stream.
But if they you think about, remember, I was talking about water and farming and stuff like that.
What is it?
Is it 80%?
I've got the stats somewhere here.
It's 80%.
Yeah.
Our food is actually imported to the sort of, you know, the Gulf there, the UAE.
And if you think about water, 60% of their water comes from desalinization.
So if you just hit say one water plant or one of these regions or you and you're stopping the food from coming in,
this is going to cause a massive, massive, people can't survive for long without water.
So that would really be the next level up.
I think if they did something like that,
that's what could pull in a lot of other countries here truly.
But either way, none of this is positive.
I think this is this is just going to escalate.
This is not good at all.
I'll be reading your comments afterwards.
I'm not following the chat here because it's over here, but I'll be reading your comments afterwards.
Let me know your thoughts and let me know any, you know, key insights as well.
You can actually tag me or message me on X with any sort of breaking stuff that you think is quite important.
I'll be more than happy to stream it next video.
I think it's going to be Friday, possibly tomorrow, but probably Friday for the walk and talk.
And and then if you're in the private community, we're launching the new programs this weekend.
So all right.
Thanks a lot.
Take care. God bless.
I'll see you on the next one.