WEBVTT

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This war is different as NATO countries are now deploying.

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Firstly, welcome to the new studio here.

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Finally finished building it today, still need to finish the lighting a little bit,

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and a few other things, but a big welcome.

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I wanted to stream right away in the new studio today.

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I want to just open by talking about how I think this war is going to be different

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from a lot of things that we've seen before.

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I don't think this is going to be, I heard a comment today.

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Someone said, it's just another Venezuela.

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Where do I even start with that comment first of all?

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No, this isn't just another Venezuela, let's just get that out of the way.

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This isn't a raid in the middle of the night with taking out Maduro and things like that.

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This isn't that first and foremost.

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The amount of people that think this is just going to blow over in the next few days,

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which is another comment I heard today.

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People have been very, very misinformed,

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and I'm surprised because the BBC, if you've been following it,

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probably best not to, is doing a great job of making,

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the last time I saw this sort of output from the BBC, it was COVID,

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and that's not a good thing.

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It reminded me of all the lockdowns and the travel restrictions,

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and actually let's start with that before we go on to the NATO stuff.

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Let's just start with that,

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because as I was thinking about all of these travel restrictions that we had during those years,

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what popped up today was this.

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Britons have been warned not to travel to all of these different countries.

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Here it is, 76 countries now,

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and as I was looking through this list,

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I couldn't quite understand why some of these countries are on there.

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For example, I was in Malaysia, absolutely fine.

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I've been in Thailand, absolutely fine.

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I can't even understand why these would be serious risk countries to go to.

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Some of the others, the UAE, yeah, I wouldn't be flying there right now,

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as well as a lot of other countries in the Middle East.

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That's the last place I would be looking to travel to right now.

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And it's funny, a lot of people were commenting.

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I was actually in the supermarket and a man came up to me and said,

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you know what you said the other night?

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It's always this way, you know what you said the other night

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about all these people that are on cruise ships and on holiday in Dubai and places,

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and now they've panicked and they've rushed to the airport and they're flying back.

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He said, I thought about what you said,

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and I actually messaged my sister and told her,

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why have you rushed to this airport?

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There's thousands of you in this one spot in an airport,

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and that's probably the first place a missile is going to hit.

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So then she thought about it and got out the airport.

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I mean, it's interesting, you know, some of the,

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it's just logical, rational thought, I think,

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but to some people, they, I guess, don't see it this way.

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So there's all of these now and it's interesting

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because it does remind me of more lockdowns.

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Is this going to be an opportunity to just stop travel all around the world?

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And I think this is going to escalate.

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If you think it's already escalated and this is it, which some people do,

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I don't think so. I really don't think so at all.

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Let's have a look at a couple of the stories then.

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So we'll begin with the NATO deployment.

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So Greece, France and Germany are now sending forces to Cyprus,

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and this is all around what they are calling a soft article for trigger.

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So let's go over a couple of this.

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Both Greece and France have agreed to send frigates to Cyprus

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after a UK airbase was targeted.

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Okay, now the first point we've got to talk about here is you're probably wondering,

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hold on, why isn't the UK sending a frigate?

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Why isn't the UK sending any of their warships?

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Well, embarrassingly to say, it's because they can't.

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The UK hardware, naval hardware is either in dry dock or getting repairs

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or it's around the UK right now.

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So that's why and it was really interesting that Stammer said,

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oh, now he used the word now.

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Okay, I always listen to the linguistics.

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He said, now we're preparing to send a force to Cyprus for its defense.

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And you'd think, surely you must have thought about that weeks ago

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when Trump's been saying it's going to kick off in Iran.

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Surely he must have thought, well, or the generals or the naval,

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they must have all thought, well, Cyprus could be attacked here.

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No, they didn't think about that at all.

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But also, I've got a kind of fringe theory on this as well.

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So it was apparently one missile that was sort of intercepted by NATO.

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And it was flying, actually, this is Turkey.

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I want to link these together.

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So there was this one missile that was flying over Turkey.

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And they said because it's a NATO country, it's triggered Article 4,

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which can trigger Article 5, etc.

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I think that's very loose, first of all.

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We don't actually know where that missile...

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I mean, it's bad either way.

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Let's just say that, throw that down.

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It's bad either way, wherever it was going.

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But it makes me wonder,

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have some of these leaders just been waiting for this opportunity

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to get into the war?

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Keir Starmer's done a massive U-turn now.

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Let's go on to some of these articles.

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Save me, keep talking nonstop.

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But this was the first one then.

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This was Greece, France.

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They're sending frigates to defend Cyprus because the UK can't.

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They're dispatching a warship.

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And the next one then,

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France is sending land-based anti-drone and anti-missile systems

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to the country.

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Germany has also responded.

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They use the word positively to request to send a warship.

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So this is Germany is now getting involved.

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They said they weren't going to send any hardware,

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and now they are.

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This equipment will arrive in Cyprus as soon as possible.

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Greece has already sent four F-16 fighter jets

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while two of its frigates are on the way.

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So again, this is not de-escalation,

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which is what some people are saying.

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This is definitely escalation for sure.

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100% escalation.

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And there's a lot more going on.

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They said this proves in practice that Greece is paving the way

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for how far the European Union should respond to such cases.

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So they're really setting it out as to how they should respond,

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how the EU, as well as NATO countries, should respond.

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But I think we're pretty much one missile away from NATO

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just going all in on this.

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They're already talking about a meeting for the article 4, article 5.

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But what's interesting to me is that this drone

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that struck the RAF base was...

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If you look at the different reports on it,

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the media was saying it was an Iranian missile slash drone.

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They didn't know it at the first.

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And it was targeting the British base

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because they're an ally of the US.

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Stammer was very quick to say,

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no, no, no, we're honoring international law.

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I don't know who he was appeasing.

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Was it Iran? Was it the British public?

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Was it certain groups within the British public?

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I'd say it probably was.

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And now he's just done this massive U-turn.

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It's like he keeps flipping.

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And I think that's probably why Trump said

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he's no Winston Churchill

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because he's been very indecisive over this whole thing.

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I think the important thing as a leader is

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it doesn't matter which way you go,

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but it's important to be decisive

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and just make a decision.

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Make a decision and go with that decision.

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Rather than what we're seeing at the moment,

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it's just all over the place.

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It's causing a lot of chaos.

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But the other thing I was thinking about this sort of drone was

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now we're getting reports that it was actually a Houthi drone,

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which is a proxy ally with Iran,

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one of the other forces.

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So it makes me think,

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well, was it?

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It could have been anywhere.

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And I'm just throwing some sort of fringe theories out here,

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but you'd never know.

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This could have been some rogue operator doing it

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to pull in NATO and pull in some other country,

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someone that's got something to gain

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by this massive war ramping up.

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Let me know your thoughts on that in the comments.

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So Kirstammer has now,

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so initially he said that British bases would not be used.

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He said he'd informed Donald Trump,

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despite his criticism that British bases would not be used.

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Now he's going to flip it.

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We'll come to that in a moment.

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But this was the story on the missile.

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So Turkey says NATO defenses destroyed an Iranian missile,

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risking war expansion.

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So they've actually said they took this down

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and the block allies are now involved in this.

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This could invoke Article 4,

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which could lead to Article 5.

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We don't know where the missile was heading,

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but they've said that Iran's targeting of Turkey,

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which has the second largest military in the block,

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was a serious escalation.

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So I'm just going over the main points of this story

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rather than telling you the whole thing.

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But they've now said that they're going to get together

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and have an opinion on this.

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US Defense Secretary Pete Hegser said there was no sense

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that the incident would trigger Article 5,

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which has only been invoked once before after 9-11.

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And this would mark a major escalation in the conflict.

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So Starmer then has now said, again, a flip,

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US planes flying out of UK bases, special relationship in action.

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So he's done this flip all over.

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Again, he's saying he's allowed the US to use the military bases.

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He said this is the special relationship in action.

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He's told Parliament that British jets are shooting down

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drones and missiles to protect American lives

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in the Middle East on our joint bases.

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That is the special relationship in action.

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Sharing intelligence every day to keep our people safe, he said.

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Hanging on to President Trump's latest words

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is not the special relationship, he added.

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So again, we're just seeing this flip-flop all the time.

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We've got the German Chancellor Merz is at the White House at the moment

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and it's kind of interesting if you saw any of those clips.

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But you just see even these leaders that talk really tough elsewhere

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is interesting how as soon as they sit in front of Trump

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they are like puppy dogs.

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Trump will criticise other countries or the leaders

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and they won't say a word.

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They'll just smile and nod.

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It's very interesting the power dynamics that have now shifted

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from before you heard all the things that they would say about Trump

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very heavily critical, all the things.

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And now they've just done this mess.

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They're just completely submissive.

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It reminded me, as you know, I've got chickens and animals and stuff like that.

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And I was watching today some of the roosters that have grown up that I hatched out.

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They weren't meant to be roosters but one clutch was 100% roosters.

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If you hatch out chickens, you know the odds of that are very slim.

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And I was watching and I was getting a little bit older.

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And there was one rooster and he was always the submissive one.

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He was always very submissive.

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And now all of a sudden he's just become the dominant one

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and the others are all completely submissive.

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As soon as he walks through, they all just scatter all.

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They do this and they squat.

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And that was where I was thinking about Trump today

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and what's actually changed.

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It's like these leaders are just...

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It's very interesting the dynamic now.

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Very interesting indeed.

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So what else then?

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When Starmer told Parliament, he does not believe in regime change from the skies

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which is what he previously said.

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Okay, now is this the Royal Navy's biggest humiliation?

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This was another one I was reading today.

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So you think the British Navy used to have the most powerful...

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It was the most powerful Navy in the world.

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Now it couldn't even deploy to protect the British base in Cyprus.

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The Navy now struggles to put ships out to sea

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either because of a lack of manpower

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or because what's left of the fleet is undergoing maintenance.

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With both it's 3.2 billion pound aircraft carriers in port.

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This is terrible.

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You read through this.

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Hold on, let me show you this part.

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So Kirstam announced on Tuesday that HMS Dragon,

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a Type 45 destroyer would be sent to the region alongside some helicopters.

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So this is a 45 type destroyer here.

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So again, not sending its most powerful weaponry at all here.

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And just a quick one.

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If you sort of get benefit from this commentary,

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please, I was trying to do two things at once there,

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please click the subscribe button, subscribe to the channel here.

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We'd love to have you on board.

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So what else then?

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They're even talking about taking days for any British reinforcements

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to arrive in the region, but it's not just the reinforcements.

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They're also prepping for escalations.

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So if you walk around with a hammer,

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eventually you're going to use it as how I look at these things.

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It said in contrast, though, Macron, the French president,

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has took a hard line approach.

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Well, we'll look at that comment very loosely indeed.

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There isn't much I'd say he has a hard line on, but anyway.

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So he's sending two additional warships.

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He's saying he's sending some powerful warships to make a statement.

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He's sending the crown jewel of the French free, the Charles de Gaulle.

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This is the aircraft carrier with a number of their top fighter jets.

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So he said that, you know, he's, it's kind of embarrassing.

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It's obvious that he's, he did that public league saying he's going to help out the UK.

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Yes, kind of embarrassing.

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Italy as well.

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Another one.

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Italy is looking to get involved now.

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They're going to be sending military aid to Gulf states.

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This has just been announced.

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Air defences, all sorts of military equipment,

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T-batteries also that can intercept these ballistic missiles.

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They are sending a lot of equipment over to the region here then.

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Let's have a look with that.

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Okay.

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Another important one I saw is, and I had to wait until this was verified was the

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Qatar is or Qatar is now about to fully shut down.

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If they haven't already done it by the time I started streaming their LNG today.

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So liquefied natural gas.

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This will be quite serious.

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It really will.

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You're going to see some spikes in prices here as well because it takes around two weeks just to get the whole thing started again.

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So if it's close today, nothing's going to move for a couple of weeks once they actually open this up again.

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You know, it's the second largest LNG exporter in the world.

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It really is.

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Again, we've got another big one that this is the oil tankers is dropped by unconfirmed,

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but the current reports from the ship tracker is somewhere around 90% or 92%.

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They're saying this is how much it's all dropped by all of the traffic through the straight.

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So this again will hit.

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So we've got gas and now we've got oil prices that are about to be hit.

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And just remember my forecast.

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If we get to $120 a barrel, which we're not anywhere near yet.

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Let's just show you the latest.

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We get here we go.

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So it's 70.

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It's even gone up as I'm.

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Look at this.

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It's all the way up to 74 now.

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Goodness me work to 74 on the Brent Brent crude as well up to 80.

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Let's just refresh.

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It's at 81 now 81.3.

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So this is really taking off.

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This could be pretty serious indeed.

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It really could at this rate.

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Now, I was actually thinking of one other thing as well.

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And that is that if you were Iran, you could quite easily cripple a lot of the Middle East.

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I know I have these weird thoughts, ladies and gentlemen, sometimes,

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but I was thinking you could literally cripple almost the entire Middle East with one ballistic missile.

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Hopefully they don't think of this and watch this stream.

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But if they you think about, remember, I was talking about water and farming and stuff like that.

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What is it?

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Is it 80%?

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I've got the stats somewhere here.

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It's 80%.

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Yeah.

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Our food is actually imported to the sort of, you know, the Gulf there, the UAE.

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And if you think about water, 60% of their water comes from desalinization.

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So if you just hit say one water plant or one of these regions or you and you're stopping the food from coming in,

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this is going to cause a massive, massive, people can't survive for long without water.

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So that would really be the next level up.

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I think if they did something like that,

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that's what could pull in a lot of other countries here truly.

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But either way, none of this is positive.

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I think this is this is just going to escalate.

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This is not good at all.

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I'll be reading your comments afterwards.

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I'm not following the chat here because it's over here, but I'll be reading your comments afterwards.

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Let me know your thoughts and let me know any, you know, key insights as well.

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You can actually tag me or message me on X with any sort of breaking stuff that you think is quite important.

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I'll be more than happy to stream it next video.

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I think it's going to be Friday, possibly tomorrow, but probably Friday for the walk and talk.

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And and then if you're in the private community, we're launching the new programs this weekend.

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So all right.

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Thanks a lot.

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Take care. God bless.

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I'll see you on the next one.

