WEBVTT

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Welcome to Nomad Capitalists Live 2024 in Kuala Lumpur, KL, Malaysia.

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I'm Bob Henderson. I'm the Nomad Dad thrilled to be joined by Vussi Timbekwaiu. Vussi,

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welcome to Nomad Capitalists Live. Yeah, hi Bob. Thanks for having us. Love your outfit.

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You like it, eh? I had you in mind when I filmed this this morning.

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You're from South Africa. I am. And you're a young man.

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I'm from the beautiful land of the country in the southernmost tip of the most incredible

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continent in the world. And you have done some terrific things in a very short period of time?

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I don't know. I think God has been good. I think we've been very blessed.

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So, tell us about you. What can I tell you? So, I come from South Africa when we first

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started our firm Purely Coincidental. I had been an investor on a show called Dragon's Den,

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the original format owned by Sony in the US. You have a similar show called Shark Tank.

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And I'd been running a consulting firm. I had exited that consulting firm,

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had a little bit of liquidity and went and did these deals. And somebody said, you know,

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you should roll this up into like a structure, maybe start a fund. And I was like,

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would that work? And that kind of started us off on this incredible journey. So,

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when we first started, we were... And that would have been when?

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That would have been circa 2014. Okay, so 10 years.

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About 10 years. And so then we started. We started in all earnestness.

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And when we started initially, we were purely focused on South Africa.

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We then started looking at expanding our horizons. I think, you know, just for context,

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my vantage point is that because I traveled a lot of work globally and my network is global,

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one of the challenges we have, Bob, in attracting capital to the part of the world I'm from,

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is that the opportunity set is just too small to give you a seat around the table.

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And so, if you're meeting with an institutional investor anywhere in, you know,

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Northern Hemisphere for a conversation less than $50 million, this is not worth their time.

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And for us, $50 million is a very large fund with multiple assets across different geographies.

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And so there's kind of this need to create... You would understand that an instrument large

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enough that it can attract the capital at volume and deploy that capital at volume,

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but also with sufficient guardrails in place that it can actually manage that capital.

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And so we're on the path, we think, to building something like this.

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And we're very excited by the opportunity set.

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Sir, entrepreneur?

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Yes, sir.

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Investor?

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Yes, sir.

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Mentor?

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Yeah, I try.

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Consultant to Fortune 500 companies?

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That's right, yeah. So I first started... You know, my journey has been interesting

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because I came from kind of outside the space into the space.

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So I started public speaking when I was at school, then I was competing in public speaking,

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and then I won a number of international competitions and then got to travel

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and live all over the world, which really changes your perspective.

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And as a South African, it's something about which I'm very acutely aware,

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is that my vantage point is framed by the fact that I have had unbelievable international exposure

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at a very early age.

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So I was living in Australia and Sydney at 17 in 2002, I'd been to the UK,

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I'd been all over the world.

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So my world kind of really changed from that perspective.

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And so when I started working as a professional, I already had a public speaking career,

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and I kind of built those two in tandem.

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And it's been a very interesting journey to have an international perspective and

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a vantage point, but also try to build yourself out as a professional in a particular space.

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Why is it that Nelson Mandela had good things to say about you?

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What is it that you did that impressed him so much?

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Yeah, so I had just come back from an international public speaking competition,

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had won Audience Favorite Speaker Prize, won the competition,

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and then had the unbelievable privilege of meeting him.

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He'd heard about my winning this competition.

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Admittedly, I was much younger, then had more hair and a slightly thinner waist.

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And the newspapers had covered my story.

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And for the viewers watching this, the context of the story is important because

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we had come from apartheid.

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Nobody who looked like me, who came from where I came from,

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had ventured into public speaking at an international level

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and competed in one at that level.

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And so when I did do, this was covered by almost all of the press across South Africa,

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both print, television, radio across the spectrum.

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And I suppose he must have come upon this.

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And he'd penned a letter and addressed the letter and I got invited to meet him.

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And then, of course, I went to meet him.

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And it was just the most unbelievable opportunity in exchange.

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I often say to people who ask me, how was that?

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And I say, he literally had the ability to bend the laws of physics.

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He would walk into this room and the temperature would change.

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It would drop just that one and a half degrees.

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There are a few people like that, but not many.

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100%.

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And strong, strong character.

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He had a presence about him.

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If he sat next to you, you could feel his energy and feel his aura.

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I was a kid at the time, but even then I could feel that transmission of energy.

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And I think the world today is solely in need of leaders of that caliber

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who are able to step up and to do and say the things that are unpopular

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but are necessary for where the world is

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and for what we hope the world can deliver for future generations.

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Well, tell me about South Africa today.

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What's the state of affairs?

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So I like to think of myself as a person who's able to look at,

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as Jim Collins says, face the brutal facts.

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And I think if you look at the brutal facts,

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we have an economy that hasn't delivered the rates of growth

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that it has the potential to deliver.

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So for instance, over the past quarter, economy grew 0.4%

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in a like-for-like basis year on year,

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which is very poor for us over the past decade.

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Our economy has grown at less than 1% per year.

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Of course, you've got to ring fence the numbers around COVID

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because there was a massive drop in and then a massive spike up.

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But if you normalize for that period,

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we've had a sub 1% economic GDP growth rate.

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And all that stall speed.

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I mean, you've got to consider that our population, Kegar,

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I think is at about 1.6% the last time I checked.

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So you've got a population growing at a rate faster than the economy.

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Then if you look at the other macro factors,

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the largest part of our demography is young people.

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And we have an unemployment rate of young people

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well above 42%.

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The unemployment rate in the country by the broad definition,

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which for us includes people who've given up looking for work as above 40%.

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The unemployment rate by the narrow definition is above 30%.

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And to put that in context,

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when Hitler seized power in Germany,

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the unemployment rate was just nearing that 20% mark,

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I think just marginally over.

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So we have been teetering on the brink of playing

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with some very, very dangerous macroeconomic factors.

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In addition to this disenfranchised youth,

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the lack of work, lack of job opportunities,

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porous borders, lots of immigration into the country.

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From where?

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From different parts of the continent,

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driven in part by a lot of the geopolitical issues

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in some of our neighboring countries.

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So for instance, the issues around Zimbabwe

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are well known and well ventilated.

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So you've got Zimbabwe, you've had Mozambique,

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which had its own period of economic difficulty before that,

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had its own period of unrest.

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And a lot of that drives economic activity.

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Johannesburg still is the hub of the continent,

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and that nobody tell you different.

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I don't have the numbers off hand,

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but I read somewhere that if you just took Hauke,

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which is the province in which Johannesburg is based,

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and you benchmarked it against other countries in the continent,

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it would still be somewhere in the top 10.

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And I might be wrong on the exact number,

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but it's somewhere high up there,

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which is to say that even without the instances

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of geopolitical unrest,

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the economic opportunities in Johannesburg alone

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attract a lot of migrant labor.

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And so all of this feeds a country that is having difficulties,

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because you've got young people who come,

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I am in my family, what we call a first generation.

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So first generation means first university,

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probably first to start a formal business,

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first, first, first, first, first.

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I am that in my family, and I'm no exception.

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There are millions like me aren't there, right?

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And yet not all of us are given the same opportunities

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and pathways that I have been given.

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So you have this economy that's not growing,

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you then have migrant labor coming into the country,

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some are documented, some undocumented,

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finding its way into the labor market,

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and you can begin to see how this creates attention

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in society broadly.

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And then you add in addition to this the fiscal picture,

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just you've got to have a look at the books,

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the government has been running,

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and now they're in this program of constraining fiscal spending,

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cutting budgeting, the other day the education minister announced

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that they're cutting spending in the education sector.

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She estimates that they will be in a position

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where they'll have to let some teachers go,

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which is not good if you look at our public education system

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because it's already overburdened in our public education system.

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And so the fiscal picture doesn't look good

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because you've got an economy that's not growing,

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a balance sheet that is not growing from a fiscal perspective,

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and then of course they've enacted a national health insurance.

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And I want to be clear, I'm a believer in the free market.

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There's no such thing as a pure free market.

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I think none of us who operate in the free market system

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can ever say, well, this market is so pure,

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but I'm a believer that the freer markets are

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the better the opportunities people have to succeed.

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And ideologically, that isn't quite where South Africa's zeitgeist is.

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There's still a huge overhang of kind of that socialist conversation.

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And that drives, so you add all of these factors together

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and you begin to see the bubbling under the surface.

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Well, how did this come about?

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There's 40% unemployment and all the problems that you've discussed.

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How does this come about?

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Frankly, you point out that the unemployment rate was half of that

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when Hitler came to power.

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I think in the Great Depression,

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the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. was 28%.

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Well, that's right, yeah.

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My goodness, 42% is just way over the top.

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It really is.

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It really is.

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And there are some statisticians who are of the view

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that that number is still not an accurate reflection

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of what the realities on the ground are.

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But your question is quite pointed.

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How did it come about?

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And the difficulty, you'd be well versed in this, Bob,

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is the difficulty with the modern day

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is we have this tendency to simplify complex issues.

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This is a really complex issue.

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So there is a large part of it that is the apartheid overhang.

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The apartheid system was designed on an exclusionary framework and system.

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Here's how it worked and I'll give you the 15-second breakdown.

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Now go a little longer if you want.

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I'm not sure everybody understands how it worked.

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Because the people like me who looked like me

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and came from where I came from operated in an environment

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where by law there were certain things we were not able to do

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and certain jobs we were not able to have.

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And so this is in part why I'm saying in my family

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I would be the first person to reach a certain level of education.

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Because even though there might not have been a law saying,

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if you are black, you can't, the system was such

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that it was as near as makes no difference

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impossible for you to reach that level of education

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in the first place.

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And so the system of apartheid, apartheid

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is the direct translation into the English,

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was that there was an economy for white people in South Africa

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and then an economy for the rest of the peoples of South Africa,

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the majority of which over 70% is black African, which I am.

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Then we have what we call Indians and coloreds

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who are a different race designate.

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But the economy was built in large part

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to support only this population of white people.

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And so the rest of us then kind of functioned

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in other parts of the economic system.

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But predominantly my people, black African people,

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were the cheap labor into the economic system

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to get this economy to grow.

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And so that's the overhang.

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The missed opportunity is the government in power

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has had 30 years to really do meaningful transformation

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of this economy.

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This is to transform your network industries,

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build new infrastructure, bring a lot of investment

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into the country, modernize the economy.

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And in large part has missed that opportunity for several reasons.

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And again, complex, but for several reasons.

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One, self-interest, right?

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When you are a party as powerful as the incumbent was,

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I mean, at a point in time there were close on 70% of the vote.

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When you're that powerful,

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there just isn't a lot of incentive for you

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to transform and to change because your competitors,

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you know this in business.

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If you're 70% of market share and then, you know,

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the other 30 players are the remaining 30%.

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You tend to approach things very, very differently.

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And so one of the things that's shifting now

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is they have had a steady decline

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over the most recent election, the sharpest decline.

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The governing party went from 57% of the vote

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to 40% of the vote, shedding 17%.

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You think in business terms of their market share

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over a single five-year period is a marked difference.

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This changes the complexion

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because now that they're at 40%,

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they're having to work with other parties

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to govern the country.

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And those of us who are, and I always say to people,

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I don't care about the politics, I care about the people.

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And we just get the country to work.

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And we can differ in how we get there,

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but let's agree on what there is.

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Let's agree on the destination.

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What's the destination?

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You want a country that works, that is safe,

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we still have a massive crime problem.

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My own father was murdered when I was 13 years old.

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They never caught the killers.

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The docket was opened twice and lost twice

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because of the third issue, which is the corruption issue.

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And then you add on top of this,

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all these are the fiscal issues.

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It's quite a dire picture.

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Yet in the midst of this,

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I still come from the country that birthed Elon Musk.

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I come from the country that created Mark Shuttleworth.

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So we're still that people, we're still that country.

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And I think it's important,

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I'd certainly take it as a responsibility, Bob, wherever I am,

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to try and present the real picture,

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but also present the balanced picture.

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The balanced picture is,

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there's still huge upside, massive opportunity.

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If you're looking to be a long-term player,

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whose feet and hands are on the ground,

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doing the actual work, building with builders,

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we have a fantastic country and an economy.

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We still fantastic road network.

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We have ports, they work now.

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We had a recent issue with the ports.

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We're not working and functioning optimally.

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We have a fantastic banking system, great legal framework.

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And in my country, it still holds true

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that if you and I have a commercial disagreement

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and I sue you,

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the courts will actually hear the matter

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and the judgment will hold.

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And there are many countries in the world

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for which that is just not the case.

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So there's a lot working for us.

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So the infrastructure is there.

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Well, the infrastructure is definitely in place.

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This is why I said,

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I spoke about this lost opportunity of 30 years

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because the base infrastructure was really was there.

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And one hopes that this new spark,

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this new wave of optimism

15:38.580 --> 15:41.200
is going to reignite the country in the right direction.

15:41.460 --> 15:45.280
So Africa needs at the very least a 2% economic growth rate,

15:45.400 --> 15:47.280
GDP sustained over a period of 10 years

15:47.280 --> 15:49.480
to have any meaningful impact

15:50.040 --> 15:52.160
of drawing people into the labor market

15:52.160 --> 15:54.020
and beginning to reduce that unemployment rate.

15:54.220 --> 15:55.240
That's the first thing it needs.

15:55.500 --> 15:56.200
Second thing it needs

15:56.200 --> 15:58.480
is to become very intentional about migration

15:58.480 --> 16:01.400
and about controlled migration.

16:01.400 --> 16:04.020
And to be clear, I'm not saying shut the borders

16:04.020 --> 16:06.500
but I am saying I am a global citizen.

16:06.700 --> 16:08.100
That's why I'm a nomad capitalist.

16:08.580 --> 16:10.660
But there is nowhere in the world I am

16:10.660 --> 16:12.680
where I am not there without the proper documentation.

16:13.300 --> 16:15.100
And I don't know when it happened to Bob

16:15.100 --> 16:16.120
that saying to people,

16:16.320 --> 16:18.180
you can be here but follow the process

16:18.180 --> 16:20.580
became a politically volatile point.

16:20.960 --> 16:21.980
This is, otherwise,

16:22.160 --> 16:23.700
what's the purpose of having the law then?

16:24.520 --> 16:26.600
Yeah, no longer a country if you don't have borders.

16:26.940 --> 16:27.380
100%.

16:27.380 --> 16:30.900
So if we, I think if we get those simple basics in place,

16:30.900 --> 16:31.980
we would be on a home run.

16:32.260 --> 16:33.500
Well, what do you do about education?

16:33.820 --> 16:35.360
I mean, that is critically important.

16:35.620 --> 16:36.860
How do you turn that around?

16:38.020 --> 16:39.480
Does it get privatized?

16:39.880 --> 16:41.040
Sure, Bob, you know your stuff, right?

16:42.160 --> 16:43.600
So here is the difficulty.

16:44.800 --> 16:46.760
If you understand the demographic picture

16:46.760 --> 16:47.880
that I've painted for you,

16:48.180 --> 16:50.460
you understand the historic injustices

16:50.460 --> 16:52.880
suffered by a large part of the population,

16:53.900 --> 16:56.600
that also means that they don't have the economic means

16:57.140 --> 16:58.900
to afford privatized education.

16:59.540 --> 17:02.640
Now the state in South Africa says it is law

17:02.640 --> 17:05.200
that your children must receive an education.

17:06.760 --> 17:08.320
It's legislated in the Bill of Rights.

17:08.660 --> 17:10.420
So you must get an education.

17:11.320 --> 17:12.720
The difficulty is that,

17:12.940 --> 17:14.560
and there are many pundits about this

17:14.560 --> 17:15.600
in different points of views,

17:15.720 --> 17:17.920
but for those of us who track the data,

17:18.080 --> 17:20.100
the difficulty is that public,

17:20.440 --> 17:23.500
that the education levels of public education institutions

17:24.540 --> 17:26.560
has a long way to go still.

17:26.760 --> 17:28.060
And so what we've seen more recently

17:28.060 --> 17:31.620
has been an emergence of a number of private education players

17:31.620 --> 17:33.520
who've been stepping into the breach

17:33.520 --> 17:36.240
and filling that gap predominantly for the middle class.

17:36.400 --> 17:37.940
The large part of which it must be said

17:37.940 --> 17:40.740
has been a black middle class that's like myself,

17:41.020 --> 17:43.140
who've come from spaces where we are not middle class

17:43.140 --> 17:45.660
and can afford to not now be in the middle classes.

17:46.260 --> 17:47.960
And so there's been a provision of that.

17:48.500 --> 17:52.400
But you must understand that socialist ideological overhang

17:52.400 --> 17:54.000
because every time this happens,

17:54.240 --> 17:56.340
what happens is there begins a conversation

17:56.340 --> 17:57.500
in the political quarters

17:57.500 --> 18:00.600
that says private interest seems to be making an impact there.

18:01.060 --> 18:02.020
We need to stop that.

18:02.320 --> 18:04.040
And it's happened in the health system.

18:04.520 --> 18:06.840
And my view is that it might likely happen

18:06.840 --> 18:08.380
in the education system too, right?

18:08.480 --> 18:10.540
Where you find a state with respect

18:10.540 --> 18:13.920
that hasn't proven itself all that competent

18:13.920 --> 18:16.460
at running a particular thing,

18:16.760 --> 18:18.840
now thinking it can run the whole thing

18:18.840 --> 18:20.740
and even take it away from private interest.

18:21.000 --> 18:22.500
So education is fundamental

18:23.020 --> 18:25.360
and reducing the cost of education is fundamental.

18:25.840 --> 18:29.240
My view is you reduce the cost of funding of education

18:30.100 --> 18:31.520
by deregulating the market,

18:31.820 --> 18:33.960
by opening up for more players to operate in that space,

18:34.300 --> 18:36.740
by making it easier for people to do online education

18:37.360 --> 18:40.660
and all of those kind of educational technology platforms

18:40.660 --> 18:42.560
easier to operate in the space.

18:42.860 --> 18:44.060
And that if you do this,

18:44.620 --> 18:47.100
you know, it's the rising tide is elevating all ships.

18:47.340 --> 18:49.520
If you drive supply,

18:50.220 --> 18:52.020
then the demand is fixed and the price will drop.

18:52.480 --> 18:53.520
It isn't the inverse.

18:53.520 --> 18:55.720
And I think there'll be a bit of an ideological debate

18:55.720 --> 18:56.520
in the country at the moment

18:56.520 --> 18:58.100
about what's the way to go.

18:58.100 --> 18:59.200
I hate to be so morbid.

18:59.200 --> 19:00.260
Sorry about that.

19:00.380 --> 19:04.840
In the US, I think a big problem is this victimhood society.

19:05.400 --> 19:07.100
Now you talk about injustices there

19:07.100 --> 19:08.720
and obviously you're right about that.

19:09.200 --> 19:13.200
Is there a victimhood mentality today in South Africa

19:13.200 --> 19:16.300
which may be holding back a segment of the population?

19:16.640 --> 19:18.180
You know, one of the difficulties is that

19:18.180 --> 19:22.480
it's a real lived injustice for a lot of people.

19:23.520 --> 19:27.280
So I don't, my view isn't necessarily that

19:27.920 --> 19:29.520
it is the victimhood of the citizen.

19:29.780 --> 19:31.680
I think my view is it's who it is

19:31.680 --> 19:36.260
against which the citizens must hold that state responsible, right?

19:36.660 --> 19:41.080
So, and my view again is after a particular period,

19:41.640 --> 19:44.020
you've got to begin to look in the mirror and say,

19:44.200 --> 19:46.660
look, we might not like where we are,

19:47.160 --> 19:48.860
but perhaps we need to start looking at

19:48.860 --> 19:51.480
who's responsible for us being where we are.

19:51.760 --> 19:53.000
So that's the first thing to say.

19:53.520 --> 19:56.400
The second thing to say is we do have quite a way to go

19:56.400 --> 20:01.380
in terms of re-educating a large part of the population

20:01.980 --> 20:04.120
around not only personal responsibility,

20:04.420 --> 20:06.600
which I think is well-weaved into the system,

20:06.920 --> 20:09.860
but more importantly around how we can think of ourselves

20:09.860 --> 20:12.000
as global citizens because I think that's a big,

20:12.080 --> 20:16.060
big, big missing part for us in the conversation piece.

20:16.840 --> 20:19.600
But this, you know, this victimhood, as you call it,

20:19.600 --> 20:23.320
it's something all of us have to begin to straddle

20:23.320 --> 20:23.900
and to struggle with.

20:23.960 --> 20:26.780
And so I'm often on opposite ends and opposing ends

20:26.780 --> 20:29.840
with people who come from that particular perspective.

20:30.300 --> 20:31.640
And I try to meet them halfway.

20:31.940 --> 20:33.160
And one of the things I say is, listen,

20:33.260 --> 20:35.020
I understand why you say what you say

20:35.020 --> 20:36.940
and why you feel the way you feel.

20:36.980 --> 20:38.820
And I completely empathize because,

20:39.060 --> 20:41.140
actually, I have been where you are.

20:41.280 --> 20:41.880
I get it.

20:42.720 --> 20:45.520
But let's agree on who's responsible

20:45.520 --> 20:46.960
for your being where you are

20:46.960 --> 20:49.420
before we can talk about how you get out of where you are.

20:49.420 --> 20:51.420
Where I think South Africa is different

20:52.000 --> 20:55.300
is that there is only a certain amount of the blame

20:55.300 --> 20:59.100
you can apportion to who was responsible pre-94.

20:59.540 --> 21:01.080
And then a particular amount of the blame

21:01.080 --> 21:03.600
you must apportion for who's been responsible after that.

21:04.060 --> 21:05.440
It's a controversial point of view.

21:05.580 --> 21:06.460
It's a point of view about which,

21:06.500 --> 21:08.520
particularly on social media, I've taken a lot of heat.

21:09.140 --> 21:10.440
But it's a point of view that I hold.

21:10.860 --> 21:14.540
It's my point of view is study other parts of the world

21:14.540 --> 21:15.960
that have transformed themselves.

21:16.140 --> 21:16.800
We're here today.

21:16.800 --> 21:19.320
We had an entire session talking about emerging markets.

21:19.640 --> 21:22.320
And if you look at other emerging markets all over the world,

21:22.420 --> 21:25.480
you realize that 30 years is sufficient time

21:25.480 --> 21:27.300
for a government in power that has been intentional

21:27.300 --> 21:30.040
to have made a marked difference in the lives of its citizens.

21:30.580 --> 21:35.580
So we can't let those in charge escape that responsibility.

21:36.160 --> 21:38.600
Well, you heard my talk.

21:38.720 --> 21:39.840
I did, yeah, I really enjoyed it.

21:39.840 --> 21:40.700
I brought a chart.

21:40.960 --> 21:43.580
And I focused on four countries.

21:43.760 --> 21:45.480
Two great situations.

21:45.480 --> 21:48.020
And two not great situations.

21:48.240 --> 21:50.540
So the great situations were Poland,

21:50.720 --> 21:52.740
which was a communist country.

21:52.900 --> 21:56.100
So this was a chart showing GDP back to 1998.

21:56.580 --> 21:58.080
25 years, one generation.

21:58.580 --> 21:59.900
And it's been straight up.

22:00.800 --> 22:03.480
But they have all the disadvantages coming in

22:03.480 --> 22:05.220
because they were a communist nation.

22:05.740 --> 22:06.860
And look what they've done.

22:07.000 --> 22:07.800
It can be done.

22:08.020 --> 22:09.320
Estonia was another one.

22:09.700 --> 22:11.580
Not quite as good, but still pretty darn good.

22:12.100 --> 22:13.060
They weren't as oppressed,

22:13.300 --> 22:14.900
but they did answer to Moscow

22:14.900 --> 22:16.180
in the Cold War era.

22:17.000 --> 22:19.400
And the other two were rich nations that blew it.

22:19.840 --> 22:21.040
Argentina and Venezuela.

22:21.360 --> 22:21.820
Venezuela, yeah.

22:21.900 --> 22:25.140
So, you know, a little hubris in those cases.

22:25.400 --> 22:28.880
So the point is, it can be done,

22:29.060 --> 22:31.380
but people have to change the mindset, I would think.

22:31.480 --> 22:33.420
And it seems to me that's your big challenge.

22:33.840 --> 22:33.960
Yeah.

22:34.260 --> 22:37.140
I mean, I think you've absolutely nailed it.

22:37.180 --> 22:38.220
Now, here's the thing.

22:38.360 --> 22:42.000
And I could be criticized for making a racial comment

22:42.000 --> 22:43.140
because let's be honest,

22:43.140 --> 22:46.020
Estonia and Poland are primarily whites.

22:46.080 --> 22:46.300
Whites.

22:46.940 --> 22:49.040
And so to say that, you know,

22:49.280 --> 22:51.480
a country that's predominantly black

22:51.480 --> 22:57.600
would take on the things that you discussed,

22:57.740 --> 22:59.060
my personal responsibility,

22:59.680 --> 23:01.220
and looking in the mirror and saying,

23:01.240 --> 23:03.520
well, I have the ability to change this,

23:03.600 --> 23:04.660
that that might be racist.

23:05.080 --> 23:08.280
I'm imposing my white supremacy values on,

23:08.560 --> 23:11.760
well, how would you respond to that?

23:11.760 --> 23:13.140
I mean, it works.

23:13.320 --> 23:14.620
What they did, and you told me,

23:14.640 --> 23:16.060
you just want to see what works.

23:16.220 --> 23:17.820
That's what you want to see happen.

23:18.340 --> 23:18.980
I think.

23:19.320 --> 23:20.280
Is that the wrong approach?

23:20.620 --> 23:24.280
You know, one of the fallacies you learn

23:24.280 --> 23:26.260
in classical public speaking and debating

23:26.920 --> 23:29.660
is you're taught that just because you present statistics

23:29.660 --> 23:30.600
and data and facts,

23:30.760 --> 23:32.240
doesn't mean people will change their minds

23:32.240 --> 23:34.840
because some people are really committed.

23:35.180 --> 23:36.100
They're dug in, they're healed.

23:36.320 --> 23:36.720
That's right.

23:36.960 --> 23:39.200
They're just committed to a particular point of view.

23:39.360 --> 23:40.500
It doesn't matter what the facts say.

23:40.500 --> 23:41.520
And so the narrative,

23:42.060 --> 23:43.420
and so for them, this is my narrative,

23:43.540 --> 23:44.380
let me find the facts.

23:44.380 --> 23:45.460
Rather than these are the facts,

23:45.780 --> 23:47.800
let me try and substantiate and find the narrative.

23:48.000 --> 23:49.180
And in the world of geopolitics,

23:49.240 --> 23:52.420
one also can't oversimplify how connected the world is,

23:52.780 --> 23:54.140
how complex these issues are,

23:55.100 --> 23:58.200
and how different nations have different

23:58.200 --> 24:00.660
prouder asymmetries that plays itself out

24:00.660 --> 24:02.500
at a geopolitical nation-state level.

24:03.080 --> 24:04.480
But at the end of the day,

24:05.300 --> 24:07.860
here's what the lesson of history is.

24:07.860 --> 24:10.280
Where people have a point of view,

24:10.820 --> 24:11.920
a dream for which they're building,

24:12.400 --> 24:13.640
a vision that they believe in,

24:14.040 --> 24:15.580
leaders who are willing to take them there

24:15.580 --> 24:17.400
and are willing to hold each other accountable,

24:18.120 --> 24:19.220
they get it done.

24:19.740 --> 24:20.260
It's that simple.

24:21.820 --> 24:25.660
And I think we have to ask and answer the question,

24:26.340 --> 24:27.960
have we ticked all five of these boxes?

24:28.540 --> 24:31.180
One of the challenges I think we have in South Africa,

24:31.540 --> 24:32.560
again, I've said this publicly,

24:32.980 --> 24:35.240
I think there's a divergence of what is the vision

24:35.240 --> 24:35.860
for the country.

24:36.880 --> 24:38.720
And you know, as a father,

24:38.880 --> 24:40.220
you can't run a family without a vision.

24:40.720 --> 24:42.480
You certainly can't run a community without a vision.

24:43.000 --> 24:44.640
You can't build a society without a vision.

24:45.540 --> 24:47.540
So forget trying to build a country without a vision.

24:47.820 --> 24:49.740
And I think if you went to 10 different South Africans

24:49.740 --> 24:51.320
and said, what's your vision for this country

24:51.320 --> 24:52.220
for the next 20 years?

24:52.620 --> 24:53.540
The answers might differ.

24:54.120 --> 24:56.100
I spent a lot of time in many parts of the world.

24:56.180 --> 24:57.660
I just came back from the Middle East.

24:57.840 --> 24:59.240
I was just in the UAE.

24:59.460 --> 25:00.740
If you ask in Emirati,

25:00.860 --> 25:02.840
what is the vision for the United Arab Emirates?

25:03.280 --> 25:04.140
The answer is clear.

25:04.140 --> 25:07.200
Whether they're working in government office

25:07.200 --> 25:09.200
or are high up in the echelons of business,

25:09.280 --> 25:10.800
it's the same single answer.

25:11.680 --> 25:14.820
My view is that they must come at a time

25:14.820 --> 25:17.760
when as Africans, we draw a line

25:18.380 --> 25:20.300
on who we blame for our past.

25:20.700 --> 25:22.460
And we go from this point forward,

25:22.760 --> 25:24.640
we're going to talk about who's accountable for our future.

25:25.820 --> 25:26.900
And I have not yet.

25:27.200 --> 25:28.780
And you've got to look in the mirror

25:28.780 --> 25:30.360
and you're accountable for your future.

25:30.500 --> 25:32.100
And this is the point I was going to make.

25:32.100 --> 25:35.440
I have not yet seen a record of history

25:35.440 --> 25:37.760
where people have built a future

25:38.700 --> 25:41.900
by obsessing over who pained them in the past

25:42.680 --> 25:44.340
and getting stuck there.

25:44.780 --> 25:47.980
Now, it's important to have those conversations.

25:48.640 --> 25:50.340
It's important to clear that up.

25:50.840 --> 25:52.700
It's important to have true reconciliation

25:52.700 --> 25:53.460
and nation building.

25:53.980 --> 25:55.240
This is an example of what Africa brings

25:55.240 --> 25:55.980
to the rest of the world.

25:56.480 --> 25:57.900
Don't pretend that stuff doesn't exist.

25:58.000 --> 25:59.660
That's why we had the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

25:59.660 --> 26:02.340
Sit around the table, talk about who pained whom,

26:02.660 --> 26:04.820
who hurt whom, and why that matters.

26:05.180 --> 26:06.280
All of those things are important.

26:06.900 --> 26:08.640
And then there's a time when you draw the line of the sand

26:08.640 --> 26:11.360
and say, right, now how do we build for the future?

26:11.800 --> 26:12.580
Let's go get them.

26:12.760 --> 26:14.840
And recognize, and then lastly, one last thing,

26:15.360 --> 26:17.700
recognize that there's never been a time in history

26:17.700 --> 26:21.920
where a full population of a country started from the same point.

26:22.900 --> 26:25.860
I accept my disadvantage as a young black person

26:25.860 --> 26:27.980
growing up in a township in South Africa.

26:27.980 --> 26:30.200
I also accept that I'm not as disadvantaged

26:30.200 --> 26:33.280
as a young black female growing up in a rural part

26:33.280 --> 26:34.200
of the northern provinces

26:34.200 --> 26:36.120
who didn't go to a Model C school like I did.

26:36.540 --> 26:38.380
I accept that I have more privilege than her.

26:38.820 --> 26:40.720
And I accept that in the classes where I sat,

26:40.820 --> 26:42.220
if you were a young white person,

26:42.500 --> 26:43.880
you come from a different background

26:43.880 --> 26:45.280
and you were more privileged than I.

26:45.340 --> 26:47.520
I accept it, but then I draw a line in the sand

26:47.520 --> 26:49.540
and then I say, right, now that I've accepted it,

26:49.580 --> 26:51.460
let you and I go to the marketplace of competition

26:51.460 --> 26:52.320
because I'm going to show you.

26:52.640 --> 26:53.540
Let's write the exam.

26:53.680 --> 26:54.820
Let's see who's going to get the better marks.

26:55.180 --> 26:56.100
Let's do the competition.

26:56.100 --> 26:58.380
And I think if we take on that spirit of conquest,

26:58.520 --> 27:00.500
of competition, of personal agency,

27:01.500 --> 27:02.980
this is how greatness is built

27:02.980 --> 27:04.640
and this is how countries achieve for greatness.

27:05.200 --> 27:08.140
Is family big and important in South Africa?

27:08.740 --> 27:09.640
Family is big.

27:10.960 --> 27:12.300
Family is important.

27:12.580 --> 27:13.620
But like everywhere in the world,

27:13.720 --> 27:15.720
the institution of family is also under attack.

27:16.160 --> 27:18.280
I'm a believer and so I have my own personal view

27:18.280 --> 27:20.120
about what's happening spiritually

27:20.120 --> 27:21.660
and why I think that is.

27:22.280 --> 27:25.720
But it's a lot of...

27:26.660 --> 27:32.900
The way I try to explain the sometimes of the psychology,

27:34.100 --> 27:36.440
if you want to understand is a lot of...

27:36.440 --> 27:37.820
And this is what I think the United States

27:37.820 --> 27:39.720
does not yet fully appreciate.

27:40.240 --> 27:44.000
The United States is still the megaphone of the world.

27:44.840 --> 27:47.360
It is the largest exports coming out of the U.S.

27:47.800 --> 27:49.660
are not any of the projects you produce.

27:50.600 --> 27:51.840
It's the media you create.

27:52.540 --> 27:54.220
There are people all over the world

27:54.220 --> 27:55.400
who've never been to the U.S.

27:55.420 --> 27:56.220
but no rap music.

27:56.760 --> 27:58.620
And they can recite every single line

27:58.620 --> 27:59.820
by every single rap musician.

28:00.460 --> 28:01.880
If you want to be huge in music,

28:02.060 --> 28:02.880
in arts and entertainment,

28:03.120 --> 28:04.600
where you've got to make it is the U.S.

28:04.660 --> 28:06.420
That's why they say in New York,

28:06.920 --> 28:08.620
if you make it there, you'll make it everywhere.

28:09.420 --> 28:11.300
If you want to work in capital markets today,

28:11.400 --> 28:12.800
what's the place you want to go to?

28:12.880 --> 28:13.520
It's still Wall Street.

28:13.760 --> 28:16.560
And so for those of us in emerging and frontier markets

28:16.560 --> 28:18.020
and please my countrymen hear me,

28:18.020 --> 28:19.560
I'm not trying to belittle who we are

28:19.560 --> 28:21.060
and what we contribute to the rest of the world.

28:21.540 --> 28:24.440
But you can't argue still that the vantage point

28:24.440 --> 28:26.700
from which the U.S. transmits its message

28:27.220 --> 28:30.000
is just levels and levels above the rest of the world.

28:30.760 --> 28:33.080
The problem then is when the U.S.

28:33.120 --> 28:36.080
also transmits messages that often are

28:36.080 --> 28:38.120
counter the narrative of what is accepted

28:38.120 --> 28:39.760
in particular countries and their cultures

28:39.760 --> 28:41.300
that also permeates.

28:41.920 --> 28:42.880
So when the U.S., for instance,

28:43.100 --> 28:44.500
starts seeing things such as

28:44.500 --> 28:46.000
maybe family is not that important,

28:46.640 --> 28:47.280
that permeates.

28:47.280 --> 28:51.720
When the U.S. says things such as maybe a belief

28:51.720 --> 28:54.760
in a creator is not important, that also permeates.

28:55.000 --> 28:58.060
And I think to understand where we are,

28:58.300 --> 28:59.900
you often have to understand the messages

28:59.900 --> 29:02.500
that the U.S. is sending to the rest of the world

29:02.500 --> 29:04.040
and the U.S. has to understand

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that those messages do have implications.

29:05.920 --> 29:07.140
I think you're absolutely right.

29:07.220 --> 29:09.580
As a U.S. citizen, as I travel around the world,

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they find out I'm U.S.

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they get a smile on their face.

29:13.700 --> 29:15.940
Oh, I can't wait to come to the U.S.

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or I was in your country one time.

29:18.560 --> 29:19.140
Where did you go?

29:19.280 --> 29:20.820
Which is always New York or California?

29:21.120 --> 29:21.880
That's right, yeah, yeah.

29:22.240 --> 29:22.800
That's where it is.

29:22.920 --> 29:23.080
East-West.

29:23.380 --> 29:24.420
Yeah, so...

29:25.460 --> 29:26.640
And by the way, just on that,

29:26.820 --> 29:27.980
it's interesting how most people

29:27.980 --> 29:29.700
don't travel into the middle part,

29:29.740 --> 29:30.960
which is real America, right?

29:31.080 --> 29:32.540
That's a real way the U.S. is.

29:32.560 --> 29:34.160
Yeah, that's where we're from.

29:34.440 --> 29:39.060
So how does Africa, as a continent,

29:39.760 --> 29:40.540
stack up today?

29:41.120 --> 29:42.860
I mean, we're talking frontier markets,

29:43.040 --> 29:44.300
but what's the prognosis

29:44.300 --> 29:45.600
as far as you're concerned?

29:45.940 --> 29:48.140
Should I be thinking about investing?

29:49.460 --> 29:50.420
What's going on?

29:50.900 --> 29:52.480
It's investment 101,

29:52.680 --> 29:53.820
and you're a lot more experienced

29:53.820 --> 29:55.400
in the industry than I am,

29:55.660 --> 29:57.440
to always balance out your risks

29:57.440 --> 29:58.540
and balance out your portfolio.

29:59.040 --> 30:02.140
So once you've taken on the necessary

30:02.140 --> 30:03.020
positions and risks

30:03.020 --> 30:04.120
in more developed markets

30:04.120 --> 30:05.320
and spaces you understand,

30:06.100 --> 30:07.600
should you be looking at frontier markets?

30:07.600 --> 30:08.400
The answer is yes,

30:08.480 --> 30:09.400
because they do present,

30:10.140 --> 30:11.780
I think, a well-priced opportunity.

30:12.560 --> 30:13.640
Should you be looking at Africa?

30:13.820 --> 30:14.680
Of course I want to say yes,

30:14.680 --> 30:15.980
because that's our space,

30:16.120 --> 30:16.780
that's where we operate,

30:17.320 --> 30:18.380
that's home for us,

30:18.440 --> 30:20.140
and we genuinely believe in the people.

30:21.220 --> 30:22.260
What's the prognosis?

30:23.400 --> 30:25.340
The stats are out,

30:25.520 --> 30:27.300
and we were discussing some of them

30:27.300 --> 30:27.960
during conference,

30:28.140 --> 30:30.380
which is the growth of urbanization rate,

30:30.700 --> 30:32.600
the growth of people getting access,

30:32.720 --> 30:34.060
for instance, to power and electricity,

30:34.600 --> 30:35.640
that skyrocketing,

30:36.540 --> 30:38.580
the youth urbanization rate,

30:38.780 --> 30:39.660
the number of young people

30:39.660 --> 30:40.500
coming into the system,

30:40.660 --> 30:41.860
all of those, the macros,

30:42.140 --> 30:43.700
are in place, right?

30:44.680 --> 30:45.640
I would say though,

30:45.860 --> 30:47.020
if you're a global investor

30:47.020 --> 30:48.500
taking a view on whether or not

30:48.500 --> 30:49.280
I should be in Africa,

30:49.920 --> 30:50.680
as I said today,

30:50.900 --> 30:51.720
I gave those three tips.

30:51.800 --> 30:52.540
The first tip is,

30:52.940 --> 30:53.760
get a local partner,

30:53.900 --> 30:54.560
because you need somebody

30:54.560 --> 30:55.800
who's going to walk the path with you,

30:55.860 --> 30:57.140
because it's an exciting,

30:57.260 --> 30:57.960
but treacherous path,

30:58.420 --> 30:59.220
and you want to be there

30:59.220 --> 30:59.980
with people who are going to play

30:59.980 --> 31:01.060
the long-term game with you,

31:01.460 --> 31:02.420
and that's the strategy,

31:02.500 --> 31:03.240
often, that we take.

31:03.740 --> 31:04.380
The second is,

31:04.800 --> 31:05.760
have a time horizon

31:06.120 --> 31:07.760
that is consistent with the environment

31:07.760 --> 31:09.040
that you are operating in, right?

31:09.300 --> 31:09.580
This is,

31:10.260 --> 31:11.480
there are still many parts

31:11.480 --> 31:13.340
of particularly in frontier markets,

31:13.460 --> 31:14.580
not as much in the emerging parts

31:14.580 --> 31:15.060
of the continent,

31:15.220 --> 31:16.400
but there are still many parts

31:16.400 --> 31:16.900
of the continent,

31:17.040 --> 31:17.240
for instance,

31:17.400 --> 31:18.360
where liquidity is a challenge.

31:18.840 --> 31:20.400
So, getting into an asset

31:20.400 --> 31:21.060
might be easy,

31:21.080 --> 31:22.120
getting out becomes a problem,

31:22.460 --> 31:23.480
and there aren't a lot of players

31:23.480 --> 31:24.720
to whom you can exit,

31:24.900 --> 31:26.640
and so you're really hoping for,

31:26.760 --> 31:28.260
you know, an exit or a public,

31:28.720 --> 31:29.440
public exchange,

31:29.600 --> 31:30.880
or an exit in other parts of the world,

31:30.880 --> 31:32.420
and that presents its own time horizons.

31:33.280 --> 31:34.580
And then third,

31:34.740 --> 31:35.420
I think I would say,

31:35.560 --> 31:36.900
do it in the spirit,

31:37.160 --> 31:37.740
in the right spirit,

31:37.940 --> 31:39.300
do it to truly work

31:39.300 --> 31:40.120
with the local people,

31:40.280 --> 31:41.580
build and develop and recognize

31:42.640 --> 31:44.400
that you will have an impact

31:44.400 --> 31:45.720
beyond the balance sheet.

31:46.460 --> 31:47.360
And so you've got to be driven

31:47.360 --> 31:48.420
by wanting to have an impact

31:48.420 --> 31:49.140
beyond the balance sheet.

31:49.340 --> 31:49.580
For us,

31:49.860 --> 31:51.040
we're mission led

31:51.040 --> 31:52.220
in how we engage

31:52.220 --> 31:53.360
with partners and investors.

