WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:05.640 Hey everybody, Tom Woods here. It's episode 2748 of The Tom Woods Show. I've got Andrew Day with 00:05.640 --> 00:12.360 me. He is senior editor at The American Conservative Magazine, which has played an important role in 00:12.360 --> 00:18.500 the intellectual discourse, let's say, such as it is these days on the right. And I have never 00:18.500 --> 00:24.740 talked to him or met him before, but he's sharp on Twitter, which is the first quality I look 00:24.740 --> 00:30.900 for in a person. I always tell my children, you are not getting the best of your dad on Twitter. 00:31.180 --> 00:36.420 It brings out the worst in everyone, so you are not permitted to judge me there. They don't have 00:36.420 --> 00:41.420 Twitter accounts, so generally only one of them really looks. But sometimes I'll go downstairs 00:41.420 --> 00:45.380 and she'll be like, I don't know if you should have put it quite that way. But anyway, 00:45.840 --> 00:48.720 Andrew, welcome to the show. Yeah, thanks so much for having me. 00:49.100 --> 00:52.880 Well, let's go back into the institutional history of your magazine because it came 00:52.880 --> 00:59.380 along, as I recall, right around the time of the war in Iraq in 2003. And this was an opportunity for 00:59.380 --> 01:05.660 not just Papua Canaan, but for other people who post Cold War thought the United States might 01:05.660 --> 01:09.480 consider going back to being a normal country like all the other countries in the world, 01:09.480 --> 01:15.080 and were increasingly disappointed as the 1990s went along and then into 2003. 01:15.760 --> 01:20.600 So in effect with this war in Iran, you are part of that ongoing history, I suppose. 01:21.340 --> 01:26.760 Yeah, it certainly seems like it. The magazine was founded in 2002 in advance of the Iraq War 01:26.760 --> 01:31.120 because everyone could kind of feel it coming, right? And Papua Canaan was one of the co-founders, 01:31.160 --> 01:35.300 the others were Scott McConnell and Taki, I won't attempt the last name. And you know, 01:35.460 --> 01:38.400 Papua Canaan was kind of the face of the magazine and really wanted a conservative 01:38.400 --> 01:42.480 publication that was associated with non-interventionism because actually, as you know, 01:42.560 --> 01:47.590 I'm sure non-interventionism, anti-interventionism has a long history in America. It got a 01:47.590 --> 01:51.590 scramble during the Cold War when the neocons kind of attached themselves to the Republican party. 01:51.910 --> 01:55.870 But after the Cold War, people like Papua Canaan were saying, okay, it's time to stop with this, 01:55.910 --> 02:00.070 you know, militarism abroad. We need to rethink NATO. We should come back home, 02:00.330 --> 02:04.170 shore up our Republican institutions. And the neocons clearly were going another way. 02:04.470 --> 02:07.830 They reached the ascendancy of their power during the Bush administration 02:07.830 --> 02:11.790 and lobbied for the Iraq War. And so the American conservative was 02:11.790 --> 02:15.350 founded to oppose that. And yeah, it does seem like history is repeating itself a bit. 02:15.350 --> 02:21.310 But this Iran war only, one thing that I will say, I think it was less comfortable actually back then 02:21.310 --> 02:25.590 to be an anti-war conservative. Much less. You know, Papua Canaan and the American conservative, 02:26.030 --> 02:30.570 they were, you know, lambasted. They were called unpatriotic conservatives, whereas this time around, 02:30.770 --> 02:34.690 the Iran war is less popular even among traditional Republicans. And I feel like a lot 02:34.690 --> 02:37.950 of people on the right, on the online right, if we want to call it that, 02:38.150 --> 02:40.990 are appropriately skeptical of this military misadventure. 02:41.610 --> 02:47.650 I really, really dislike accusing people of operating from base motives. You know, 02:47.650 --> 02:53.830 I like to argue the merits of the case and this is a really bad argument. I have a better argument. 02:54.350 --> 03:01.290 But sometimes, especially now, I find it very difficult to escape the conclusion 03:01.770 --> 03:06.290 that some people, I mean, no doubt some people sincerely support this war, 03:06.770 --> 03:14.670 I suppose, but when I look at people who made exactly the opposite argument not 18 months ago, 03:15.110 --> 03:20.890 and I mean exactly the opposite, now suddenly acting as if you'd have to be out of your mind to make 03:20.890 --> 03:28.050 the exact arguments they themselves made. Now, I suppose you could have a complete 180 on something 03:28.050 --> 03:32.250 in such a short period of time, but since nothing has changed in the Middle East during 03:32.250 --> 03:39.630 that time, I look at some of these personalities, I hate the word influencers on Twitter, whose 03:40.150 --> 03:45.450 varying opinions you can set side by side and you can hardly believe it. And it's like, 03:46.210 --> 03:50.230 you know, I don't want to accuse people of just chasing clicks or chasing influence, 03:50.550 --> 03:55.890 but they feel like, well, a lot of the mega base seems pretty happy about this. 03:56.430 --> 04:01.470 So, and I, you know, I guess the living that I'm making depends on my appealing to 04:01.470 --> 04:06.530 those people. So, I'm just going to change on a dime and with no real explanation. 04:07.510 --> 04:12.430 And it's impossible to respect that on any level is impossible to respect that. 04:13.810 --> 04:18.070 Yeah, I don't know who exactly you have in mind, but I agree that I can also think of some people 04:18.070 --> 04:22.450 who fit that description. I think audience capture, as you alluded to, is a part of it. 04:22.530 --> 04:25.750 You know, maybe a lot of their followers still trust the plan, trust Trump to do 04:25.750 --> 04:29.310 the right thing in Iran and make this into a victory somehow. I also think a lot of 04:29.310 --> 04:32.650 these people want to retain their influence with the Trump administration so they kind of 04:32.650 --> 04:37.490 modulate their criticism or maybe even just omit criticism. And, you know, 04:37.870 --> 04:43.450 Trump clearly after the Venezuela raid was in a very hubristic mood. You know, he felt 04:43.450 --> 04:48.130 very confident in his role as commander in chief. He felt like he could achieve a lot 04:48.130 --> 04:52.450 militarily with these quick decisive strikes without getting embroiled in a forever conflict. 04:52.650 --> 04:57.210 And I think a lot of his supporters kind of bought into that they bought into this mystique 04:57.210 --> 05:02.250 and they felt like if Trump is doing this, then surely they have a plan. And I'm sorry to report, 05:02.490 --> 05:07.130 it is very clear that this war is not very well thought out. It was not very well planned. 05:07.510 --> 05:10.590 You know, the Trump administration was telling Turkey and the Gulf states that it was going 05:10.590 --> 05:14.590 to last about four days. Then in the opening days when it was clear that was not going to 05:14.590 --> 05:18.570 be the case, they were stretching to, you know, a couple weeks, maybe four to five weeks. 05:18.690 --> 05:22.310 Okay, now we're in the fifth week. And it seems like this thing is not coming to an end. 05:22.370 --> 05:25.750 So people need to stop being plan trusters. They need to use their brain. They need to 05:25.750 --> 05:30.070 exercise their critical faculties because we are in a mess and it's going to be kind of difficult to 05:30.070 --> 05:33.910 extricate ourselves from this mess. So we all need to be thinking independently and critically and 05:33.910 --> 05:37.710 not just listening to Trump's, you know, bombast about how we're winning the war. 05:38.790 --> 05:42.590 I want to go back to something you said toward the beginning there. 05:43.230 --> 05:47.870 I think it was Laura Loomer who said to somebody, you know, good luck getting invited back to 05:47.870 --> 05:52.630 Mar-a-Lago if you take that position. And I thought, imagine living your life that way. 05:52.630 --> 05:57.950 I couldn't care less if I go to Mar-a-Lago or not. You know, we're all going to be dead, 05:58.050 --> 06:04.110 you know, before too long, right? Geologically speaking, it's not too long. And after that, 06:04.190 --> 06:08.510 no one's going to think about or care where you went. The only thing that somebody might still 06:08.510 --> 06:12.510 think about once you're gone is whether you had any integrity or not, you know, 06:12.570 --> 06:15.750 whether your life had been worth living or whether you were willing to throw it away 06:15.750 --> 06:20.830 for some fleeting notoriety. I mean, what kind of, because would you really raise your 06:20.830 --> 06:27.130 children to aspire to such trivialities? Anyway, these are all rhetorical questions. 06:27.250 --> 06:32.150 These are terrible interview questions, Andrew. They're rhetorical. I got to knock that off 06:32.150 --> 06:36.590 and ask you some real ones. So let me ask you a real one. Is it true that you grew up on 06:36.590 --> 06:42.450 U.S. military bases around the world? It is, yeah. My dad was in the army. He was 82nd 06:42.450 --> 06:47.510 Airborne. For some reason, we also lived a lot on Air Force bases. Maybe that was 06:47.510 --> 06:53.230 related to him being an Airborne Infantry in California. I lived in Fort Knox, Kentucky, 06:53.310 --> 06:58.010 for a little bit. Sometimes we were located off base, depending on where my dad was stationed. 06:58.230 --> 07:00.830 But for the most part, I was growing up on military bases and attending 07:00.830 --> 07:06.570 Department of Defense schools. Did those experiences in any way shape your 07:06.570 --> 07:12.390 current opinions or are they completely separate? I don't know. It's a little hard 07:12.970 --> 07:18.270 to say. I mean, my political consciousness was formed in the context of the Iraq War, 07:18.510 --> 07:23.070 and I gravitated toward an anti-war position, and I was reading some left-wing thinkers, 07:23.270 --> 07:27.190 and then I was made aware of Pat Buchanan, and realized that there's also people on the 07:27.190 --> 07:31.290 right who are saying this kind of thing. Living on military bases, it's interesting 07:31.290 --> 07:36.530 because there is more patriotism, but also people are more directly affected. So I knew 07:36.530 --> 07:40.430 people whose sons were going off to war or who themselves were going off to war, 07:40.430 --> 07:44.250 family, friends, and such. So it feels a little closer to you, and maybe that 07:44.250 --> 07:48.430 changed the way that I think about this subject, but I can't detect personally 07:48.430 --> 07:54.010 any direct causal connection between the two. Okay. I mean, I couldn't help asking. 07:55.150 --> 08:03.050 You've said that much of U.S.-Israel-related foreign policy ultimately boils down to, 08:03.170 --> 08:07.190 well, this was a bad idea, but now we have to dig in. And I see a lot of that sentiment 08:07.190 --> 08:10.850 on social media now that there will be some people who say, 08:11.130 --> 08:14.390 well, look, whether or not you like the... There's some people who say, 08:14.410 --> 08:18.730 you have to think this was a great idea. But other people say, well, regardless of how you 08:18.730 --> 08:23.610 feel about it, once we're there, then we have to, quote, finish the job. 08:24.670 --> 08:29.810 What do you... Talk to me about that way of thinking. Sure. I mean, it was exactly that 08:29.810 --> 08:33.390 kind of statement that I was responding to with that tweet that you just quoted, 08:33.390 --> 08:37.930 the idea that we have to finish the job. And you're right. This is rhetorically different and 08:37.930 --> 08:41.450 kind of logically different than those who say, oh, this is all going according to plan. It's good 08:41.450 --> 08:46.190 that we did this. Now we're hearing more people and not just Contanetti, who you were just quoting, 08:46.350 --> 08:50.670 who is like the son-in-law of Bill Crystal, I believe, and could be expected to say this kind 08:50.670 --> 08:56.410 of thing. Even Steve Bannon is saying stuff like this right now. And I don't think it's 08:57.710 --> 09:03.050 necessarily like inherently insane to make this point that we shouldn't have gone to war, 09:03.050 --> 09:07.630 but now that we're in there, this is a mess and the only way out is through. But I really do 09:07.630 --> 09:12.010 disagree with this argument because, one, what is the plan that we're supposed to be trusting? 09:12.230 --> 09:15.730 What is the job that we're supposed to be finishing? The administration has done 09:15.730 --> 09:21.810 a truly abominable job of telling us what the strategy is, what the strategic goals are. 09:22.170 --> 09:25.510 Whenever Hexeth, he hasn't given one in a while. I think maybe he did yesterday, 09:25.650 --> 09:28.550 there was a little bit of gap in his press conferences. But he previously, 09:28.550 --> 09:33.410 during these press conferences, during these Department of Defense press releases and things 09:33.410 --> 09:37.130 they post on Twitter, they tell us how many things they've bombed, how many bombs they've 09:37.130 --> 09:43.050 dropped on Iran, how many munitions they're expending, as if that is itself the goal of the war. 09:43.490 --> 09:48.690 That's not the goal of war. The military is a means to an end. War is a means to an end. 09:48.730 --> 09:52.990 It should be something that is used as a last resort or out of necessity. And they haven't told 09:52.990 --> 09:57.210 us what is the end that they're using this means toward. I mean, Rubio will come out, 09:57.210 --> 10:01.930 try to say things that make sense. But clearly the goalposts are always shifting. 10:02.390 --> 10:07.610 On the first day, Trump told us that we wanted to spread freedom to Iran. He told that during the 10:07.610 --> 10:10.990 eight minute video that he released where he was wearing the baseball cap on the opening day of 10:10.990 --> 10:14.970 strikes in a Washington Post interview. He said the same thing. They reported based on their 10:14.970 --> 10:19.450 interview that spreading freedom to Iran was top of mind for them. JD Vance was saying, 10:19.510 --> 10:23.330 no, this is all about their nuclear program. Making sure they can't reconstitute their 10:23.330 --> 10:27.670 nuclear program that supposedly we obliterated during the Operation Midnight Hammer at toward 10:27.670 --> 10:31.890 the end of the 12 day war. Rubio came out and said, no, this was to stop an imminent threat. 10:32.050 --> 10:36.130 And then when he elaborated, he said, well, Israel was going to attack regardless that 10:36.130 --> 10:39.930 we had to join the attack, because that way we somehow prevent this imminent threat against 10:39.930 --> 10:43.830 our own troops. It didn't really make sense, but it was very telling that he said that it was 10:43.830 --> 10:48.550 all a jumble. It's been incredibly muddled the entire process. And that's really what 10:48.550 --> 10:52.750 worries me about this. Because as far as I can tell, this war was totally optional. 10:53.190 --> 10:57.650 It's a war of aggression. It doesn't secure our interests at all. Our military presence in the 10:57.650 --> 11:02.130 Middle East, if it's for any good reason is to do things like prevent the closure of the 11:02.130 --> 11:07.250 Strait of Hormuz. And our war has caused predictably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, 11:07.290 --> 11:11.150 you can go read my stuff when I was warning against this war. This was one of the things 11:11.150 --> 11:14.850 I warned about. It was very clear to anyone who just looks at a map. I feel like a small 11:14.850 --> 11:17.950 child could look at a map of Iran and point at the Strait of Hormuz and say, 11:17.950 --> 11:21.510 what if they do something bad here? It's ridiculous that they seem not to have actually 11:21.510 --> 11:25.930 planned for this. And so this is why I don't trust the plan trusters or the people saying 11:25.930 --> 11:30.570 finish the job. I don't think that we should dig in. One possibility, and I hear this a lot, 11:30.610 --> 11:34.050 especially from like foreign diplomats and foreign politicians and stuff that I talk to 11:34.050 --> 11:37.990 here in D.C. or that I reach out to. A lot of people are saying, well, if the bombing 11:37.990 --> 11:42.410 caused this big mess, maybe try stopping the bombing. You know, that might seem a little 11:42.410 --> 11:46.210 naive. I do agree it's going to be difficult because as everyone says, Iran gets a vote 11:46.210 --> 11:49.330 as to when this war ends. And so if we stop bombing, they want to make sure the bombing 11:49.330 --> 11:53.410 doesn't resume again in the future. And they don't trust our diplomacy anymore because they think we 11:53.410 --> 11:58.230 used it as a ruse in this case to kill their leaders, right? So we're in a bit of a mess, 11:58.410 --> 12:02.770 but I do think pulling back might be the right option here. And people should understand the 12:02.770 --> 12:06.630 costs that we're inflicting on the global economy and that we're inflicting on our 12:06.630 --> 12:10.290 own force posture in the Middle East. There was a good article today in Responsible 12:10.290 --> 12:14.410 Statecraft by a friend of mine, a military analyst named Jennifer Kavanaugh of Defense 12:14.410 --> 12:17.310 Priorities, in which she was asking, how come over the past 10 days, 12:17.570 --> 12:21.110 Iran has been pretty successful in doing these missile strikes in Israel? 12:21.950 --> 12:25.770 A lot of people are assuming it's because of the depletion of missile interceptors 12:25.770 --> 12:30.090 in Israel stockpiles, but she speculates that that's one part of the reason probably. 12:30.530 --> 12:35.150 But another issue is that Iran has been systematically taking out our sensors and our radars 12:35.150 --> 12:39.390 in the Persian Gulf states. And there's an integrated air defense system that the U.S. 12:39.390 --> 12:44.030 and our Gulf partners use that requires these ground-based radars and sensors, 12:44.310 --> 12:48.090 and Iran seems to be taking them out. That's going to have strategic implications for us going 12:48.090 --> 12:53.430 forward. They've destroyed or severely damaged about 13 of our bases in these Gulf states. 12:53.590 --> 12:56.270 It's not clear that we're going to be able to rebuild those. It's not clear that the Gulf 12:56.270 --> 13:00.590 Arab states are going to want us to rebuild those, because obviously it's not protecting them 13:00.590 --> 13:06.030 in this case. So I do see this, even if it stopped now, I think it would be a strategic 13:06.030 --> 13:11.710 disaster. But I think that might be the only thing we can do is to credibly signal that we're 13:11.710 --> 13:14.710 stopping now. And I've talked a bit. Maybe we could talk. I had an article last week in which 13:14.710 --> 13:18.770 I suggested that Trump to stop this war. Maybe he needs to come out and credibly say, 13:18.810 --> 13:23.530 we're divorcing Israel. That's going to signal to Iran that we're not going to attack again. 13:23.790 --> 13:27.990 It's going to signal to Israel that to the extent that you dragged us into this war, 13:28.030 --> 13:31.090 and I do think that Israel was central to the determination to go to war, 13:31.310 --> 13:34.530 we're not going to let that happen anymore because this is clearly bad for our interests. 13:34.530 --> 13:39.470 Okay. I mean, look, that would be great. But I just, I have wished for far, 13:39.690 --> 13:42.070 far less from this administration. And I haven't even got that. 13:42.130 --> 13:46.090 I'm not optimistic he'll do that. I think it might be the only way out at this point. 13:46.530 --> 13:49.710 Yeah. No, I hear that. I trust you're like me, dear listeners, 13:49.890 --> 13:52.170 and you're like the idea of getting paid for things you're doing anyway. 13:52.830 --> 13:56.570 Well, right now we're living through historic deficits, persistent inflation, 13:56.710 --> 14:01.030 and a Federal Reserve that can't unwind what it's created. And that's why a lot of us 14:01.030 --> 14:05.810 own gold. Gold is back in the spotlight now, not as a trade, but as real money. 14:06.430 --> 14:09.490 But here's the problem. Most gold, which we're going to own anyway, 14:10.170 --> 14:12.970 just sits there in a vault. Might as well have it work for us. 14:13.370 --> 14:16.370 It's protecting our purchasing power, but it's not generating income. 14:16.870 --> 14:20.030 Monetary metals changes that. It takes the gold you're going to buy anyway 14:20.030 --> 14:24.010 and does something with it. It lets you earn a yield on gold, paid in gold. 14:24.150 --> 14:28.370 I lease my gold through monetary metals and earn a return of around 4% annually, 14:28.370 --> 14:33.230 paid in physical ounces. So I keep my gold and I get more gold over time. 14:33.790 --> 14:38.410 That means I benefit from rising gold prices and I grow my holdings in ounces. 14:38.910 --> 14:44.290 No paper promises, no fiat payouts. Gold becomes a productive yield-bearing asset again. 14:44.830 --> 14:47.150 The Fed can print dollars, they can't print gold. 14:47.590 --> 14:52.570 Learn more at monetary-metals.com slash woods and see how you can start earning 14:52.570 --> 14:56.990 a gold income. That's monetary-metals.com slash woods. 14:58.770 --> 15:04.310 I'm thinking about the relationship between Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger during the 15:04.310 --> 15:08.870 Vietnam War. Now, Kissinger recalls that, or maybe it was Nixon who put it this way, 15:08.890 --> 15:13.290 now that I think about it, that Nixon would tell Kissinger to go and negotiate 15:13.890 --> 15:20.510 by telling the other side, Nixon is a crazed lunatic and I'm barely able to control him 15:20.510 --> 15:23.390 and threaten all kinds of crazy things I might do. 15:24.170 --> 15:27.290 And that way, even though I have no intention of doing any of them, 15:27.290 --> 15:30.930 but they don't know that and you portray me as this reckless lunatic, 15:31.130 --> 15:36.230 maybe that will get more concessions. Well, Trump has a more direct approach to this. 15:36.270 --> 15:39.990 He doesn't go through a Kissinger. He just comes right out and says, I'm a crazy lunatic 15:39.990 --> 15:44.290 and I'm seriously considering if you don't do the following that I might do. 15:44.410 --> 15:49.670 And then he lists these terrible things that even the Iranian diaspora, 15:49.890 --> 15:54.090 which is all half of them are cheering for this, even they would have to sit up and say, 15:54.090 --> 15:59.750 finally, oh, maybe this isn't exactly what we wanted. But the problem is Iran keeps calling 15:59.750 --> 16:05.630 his bluff over and over and over. So either he just keeps conceding and conceding and conceding, 16:05.870 --> 16:11.870 which is not really Trump's style. Trump's a winner. He negotiates, but he wins. 16:14.210 --> 16:17.430 It's a little disturbing to think about where this could ultimately go. 16:17.750 --> 16:20.870 Now, if it turned out that none of these bad outcomes occurred, 16:20.870 --> 16:25.390 you and I would once again be lectured to that we were quote, panikins, which by the way, 16:25.410 --> 16:31.430 if you use the word panikin, you get seven retardation points added to your score, first of all. 16:31.530 --> 16:36.770 But you get accused of that that you, oh, you know, why didn't you just trust in Trump? 16:37.350 --> 16:41.910 Look, I'm taking on a crazed roller coaster every 24 hours with this guy. 16:42.190 --> 16:46.530 I think I'm allowed to be concerned. I mean, is that the role of a conservative 16:47.060 --> 16:52.650 is not to be reckless and crazy, but to consider what the possible outcomes could be and prepare for 16:52.650 --> 16:57.470 them. I mean, it's completely reckless to say, oh, you don't have to worry about a single thing the 16:57.470 --> 17:03.150 guy says. What are you talking about? What's conservative about that? Absolutely. And also, 17:03.310 --> 17:07.270 this isn't the most important thing. You know, the thing that I prioritize when I'm thinking 17:07.270 --> 17:11.390 about the war is in Trump's political positioning. But actually, people like us, 17:11.630 --> 17:14.830 if Trump listened to us, it would be much better for him politically, because this 17:14.830 --> 17:18.610 is turning out to be a political disaster with mounting political costs. I feel like the longer 17:18.610 --> 17:22.310 this goes on, the more likely we're going to have a global recession. We're going to have 17:22.310 --> 17:27.050 extreme inflation, or maybe like 5% and 6% inflation or something on just general consumer 17:27.050 --> 17:31.210 goods and groceries and stuff here in the United States. That's going to be bad for Republicans 17:31.210 --> 17:34.510 in the midterms. It's going to be bad for Trump politically. He's going to become a lame 17:34.510 --> 17:38.730 duck. So they should have been listening to us actually instead of the plan trusters, 17:38.730 --> 17:41.790 even though Trump has a kind of basic agreeableness about him, 17:42.370 --> 17:47.410 which maybe makes him more susceptible to this kind of fawning attention that he gets from these 17:47.410 --> 17:52.930 kinds of people who have their own aims, right? And I totally agree. It's a little difficult to 17:53.690 --> 18:00.010 say whether Trump is delusional or lying or executing a kind of madman strategy, 18:00.230 --> 18:06.050 as you suggested. And I don't know the answer to that question. I suspect that he doesn't 18:06.050 --> 18:10.510 really have a kind of inner life. And he just says what he thinks is necessary for his 18:10.510 --> 18:15.930 like immediate political interests. And that often involves him bragging about what he's achieved. 18:16.370 --> 18:20.310 His book, The Art of the Deal was influenced by the power of positive thinking, the self-help 18:20.310 --> 18:23.670 classic. And that's why he's always kind of exaggerating his achievements and saying, 18:23.730 --> 18:27.690 everything's great. Everything is ahead of schedule under budget. So that's not 18:27.690 --> 18:31.590 surprised that he's saying that, but then he has to meet the basic reality that 18:31.590 --> 18:36.470 the straight-up form is closed. Iran is still firing ballistic missiles. They just 18:36.470 --> 18:42.330 had a base in Saudi Arabia and wounded supposedly 12 to 15 soldiers. I have questions about whether 18:42.330 --> 18:48.150 the casualty figures we're getting are accurate, but you supposedly at least 12 to 15 and some 18:48.150 --> 18:53.130 of those are severely wounded. Okay, that's not something that Trump can just wish cast or 18:53.130 --> 19:00.970 be us his way out of. This is an actual political problem, geopolitical problem. Iran has 92 19:00.970 --> 19:05.430 million people. They have a serious military. They are in middle power. We are at war with 19:05.430 --> 19:09.610 them. Trump can't just be golfing and then talking about how everything is going 19:09.610 --> 19:15.410 swimmingly. We need actual strategic thinking. One thing that makes me somewhat hopeful, 19:15.790 --> 19:19.810 there's a little ray of hope. I do think he's getting basically good advice from the 19:19.810 --> 19:26.690 chairman of the Joint Jesus Staff, Dan Cain, top military officer. So that's good. It seems 19:26.690 --> 19:28.430 like- Yeah, who tried to tell him in the beginning. 19:29.250 --> 19:32.010 Yeah. Yeah. He was warning and you know, it sounds like he was actually quite 19:32.010 --> 19:35.010 pressioned. You know, they can close the Strait of Formuse and then Trump said, 19:35.070 --> 19:38.130 well, they probably won't. They haven't done that before and if they do, our military will 19:38.130 --> 19:41.670 take care of it. He was saying they could ignite a regional war, which they had 19:41.670 --> 19:44.870 threatened to do. You can go read the American conservative before the war. 19:45.130 --> 19:48.950 We were saying Iran's strategic calculus has changed. They're not going to do this 19:49.370 --> 19:53.030 choreographed tit for tat exchange that Trump likes to do. They're going to try to hit 19:53.030 --> 19:56.590 back hard, impose costs, make sure this never happens again because they don't want 19:56.590 --> 20:00.250 to get bombed every six months. I think Dan Cain was telling Trump that kind of thing. 20:00.250 --> 20:04.150 So hopefully now Trump sees Dan Cain as having been vindicated and will listen to 20:04.150 --> 20:07.330 him more, but who knows? We don't know what's going on behind the scenes and it seems 20:07.330 --> 20:09.650 like it's a pretty small circle of decision makers. 20:09.990 --> 20:12.190 Yeah. And of course, what we'd like to say to him is, 20:12.590 --> 20:15.310 so how do you like your brand new friends now? Remember the people who 20:15.310 --> 20:19.490 repeatedly said they would never ever vote for you, whom you're now flattering, 20:20.110 --> 20:24.430 you know, in an over-the-top manner because they in turn are flattering you? 20:25.170 --> 20:29.090 I wonder if you would pause to say, well, these people have gotten me into a 20:29.090 --> 20:34.690 quagmire. Maybe they're not thinking about my best interests. I wonder if he can hear that 20:34.690 --> 20:39.870 in his brain through the, this is the greatest president we've ever had. I would give him an A 20:39.870 --> 20:47.150 plus as Ben Shapiro said. You know, which one of those voices is going to override the other? 20:47.390 --> 20:48.870 I don't know. I don't know. 20:48.950 --> 20:52.590 So far, it seems like the Mark Levin's and the Ben Shapiro's of the world are the ones 20:52.590 --> 20:55.390 who Trump is going to listen to. I mean, just on TruthSocial over the week, 20:55.410 --> 20:58.450 and he told people to listen to Mark Levin's segment with what's the guy's name, 20:58.450 --> 21:04.470 Mark Thiessen, former George W. Bush speechwriter, Mark Levin sounds like a total nut. Okay? Like, 21:04.710 --> 21:10.030 that is not the guy that Trump should be listening to. This idea that Levin was promoting in the 21:10.030 --> 21:14.810 segment that Trump told people to listen to is that we need to send in our troops to secure 21:14.810 --> 21:19.830 the uranium, but we don't know where the uranium is. Iran does know where it is. They might have 21:19.830 --> 21:23.490 booby-trapped this. They could have, we're going to be within their artillery range. They 21:23.490 --> 21:27.170 could send a ballistic missile and kill a bunch of troops all in one go. It sounds to me 21:27.170 --> 21:31.530 like a suicide mission, right? And I really hope Trump isn't listening to these kinds of people, 21:31.610 --> 21:35.550 but I suspect because they say things nice, because they tell all their Fox News viewers, 21:35.750 --> 21:39.530 oh, Trump is the best president ever. This is the bravest thing. This is the most amazing 21:39.530 --> 21:44.390 war since the Revolutionary War. I think Trump likes to hear that, and he probably will 21:44.390 --> 21:48.030 continue to listen to them for a while, and things will continue to get worse, I think. 21:48.810 --> 21:54.430 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, you've heard it said multiple times that you can't just say 21:55.050 --> 21:58.950 they get angry at you if you say that Israel had something to do with this because 21:58.950 --> 22:05.510 Trump is his own man. You're denying him, quote, agency. Couldn't he have made the decision? And 22:05.510 --> 22:10.390 of course, on some level, they're right. Of course, the buck has to stop with him, 22:10.670 --> 22:15.990 but on another level, they're just, I think they're just being deliberately dense because 22:15.990 --> 22:21.530 I think we know about Trump's personality that despite the flattery we just heard from RFK 22:21.530 --> 22:26.230 Jr., I do not believe that he is a big book reader. I do not believe that he could 22:26.890 --> 22:31.050 recreate a map of the Middle East on the back of a napkin from memory. I don't believe that. 22:31.250 --> 22:37.330 I think that's just made up to appease him. I think to the contrary, he is very impressed by, 22:38.910 --> 22:42.750 well, there are a number of things that impress him, but if you're the last person 22:42.750 --> 22:46.210 to talk to him about something and you're really, really passionate about it, 22:46.210 --> 22:50.930 that does have an impact. I mean, I've given the example of Vivek telling him, 22:51.070 --> 22:56.310 you don't want, these people are very unhappy about the prospect of central bank digital currencies. 22:56.490 --> 23:00.130 Trump had never heard of this before. The next day, he comes out at a rally and says, 23:00.230 --> 23:04.250 we're never going to have a central bank digital currency. Everybody cheers and he's 23:04.770 --> 23:08.470 shocked at this and he says, wow, you guys are all really smart because he basically just 23:08.470 --> 23:12.690 heard about this. But one person talking to him for five minutes was all he needed. 23:12.690 --> 23:20.330 So I think it's a bit much for us to reject the idea that Israel might have influenced him 23:20.330 --> 23:24.070 because after all, he is his own man. Yeah, on some things he might be. 23:24.330 --> 23:27.530 On that ballroom, he's going to do what he wants. But on something like this, 23:27.570 --> 23:29.990 there are a lot of ways you can probably pressure him, I would think. 23:30.970 --> 23:35.810 Yeah. I mean, I think it's undeniable that Israel is part of the story. If you're talking 23:35.810 --> 23:40.250 about the Trump administration's decision to go to war, you have to talk about Israel. 23:40.250 --> 23:43.630 I mean, for one, we're waging this war in concert with Israel, right? 23:44.250 --> 23:48.390 Two, the New York Times, other newspapers, basically all of the major newspapers have 23:48.390 --> 23:53.110 reported that Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister and other Israeli officials were 23:53.110 --> 23:57.050 going to the White House, talking to White House officials, talking to Trump constantly, 23:57.190 --> 24:03.070 pushing for this war. I was reporting last year on the negotiations. I think the negotiations 24:03.610 --> 24:08.750 that led up to the 12-day war were for the most part sincere and the White House and Trump 24:08.750 --> 24:12.330 really wanted to make a deal with Iran to get some kind of nuclear deal. 24:12.950 --> 24:16.730 But every time they made an actual diplomatic gesture that was concessive, 24:16.950 --> 24:20.490 and it was necessary to have some concession to get Iran to agree to the deal, 24:21.010 --> 24:24.970 the Israel lobby freaked out. The foundation for defensive democracies freaked out. 24:25.170 --> 24:29.990 Mark Levin freaked out. They were relentless. Bibi was relentless behind the scenes and 24:29.990 --> 24:33.310 pushing for war. That's definitely part of the story. And the way that I put it is, 24:33.630 --> 24:37.190 you know, Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing for a war with Iran for decades, 24:37.190 --> 24:42.430 a U.S. war. He admits as much. He couldn't get a president to go along with this idea 24:42.430 --> 24:48.070 until Trump. So both sides of the story are there. Israel is necessary. If you remove the Israeli 24:48.070 --> 24:52.270 component, I don't think we do have this war. But also Trump is there because other presidents 24:52.270 --> 24:56.490 didn't do this. George W. Bush didn't. Maybe he would have if the Iraq war had gone better. 24:56.950 --> 25:01.290 But actually, Israel at the time wanted him to hit Iran instead of Iraq. At least the 25:01.290 --> 25:05.990 Prime Minister Sharon did. And they went with Iraq instead. Obama didn't do this. 25:05.990 --> 25:09.590 Biden didn't do it. Trump didn't do it on his first term. But in his second term, 25:09.670 --> 25:13.590 he gave Netanyahu what he wished for. A lot of that has to do with Israeli pressure. 25:13.710 --> 25:18.270 But some of it does have to do with Trump's militarist mood that he's in in his second term. 25:18.810 --> 25:22.130 Well, it wasn't just Obama and Biden who didn't do it. Of course, George W. Bush didn't 25:22.130 --> 25:26.710 either, even though there was a lot of talk then about possibly hitting Iran. 25:27.030 --> 25:33.570 And what convinced him, it seems, was the, I guess the conflation of two things. There was 25:34.630 --> 25:38.090 intelligence reports saying we don't really have any evidence that they're doing this in 25:38.090 --> 25:43.670 terms of nuclear weapons. And then the other thing was it's always been the military side of things, 25:43.810 --> 25:49.450 not the ideological geopolitical side, but the military side of things that has said 25:49.970 --> 25:54.810 it's not obvious that there's a clear path to victory here. And that seems to have been 25:54.810 --> 26:00.890 enough to hold him off, but not quite enough for Trump. And again, we can sit here fruitlessly 26:00.890 --> 26:05.470 speculating as to what exactly went on behind closed doors. But I think what I want to do is 26:05.470 --> 26:13.450 ask you something that I asked John Hoffman last week, which is we hear a lot from critics that 26:14.090 --> 26:20.130 some policymakers, let's say in the United States, sometimes conflate Israeli interests with 26:20.130 --> 26:24.910 the United States interests and say that virtually all the time our interests are aligned. 26:26.490 --> 26:31.310 Is that the case? Now, that's way too easy of a question. And if it's not the case, 26:31.610 --> 26:38.510 how would you describe Israeli interests vis-a-vis American interests? And where do they diverge? 26:39.770 --> 26:45.650 Well, first I'll say I do think that American and Israeli interests vis-a-vis Iran significantly 26:46.770 --> 26:50.310 diverge. That's what Trina Parse had the Quincy Institute told me last week, 26:50.310 --> 26:53.670 which I quoted in a column that I wrote that I referred to earlier. And that's my 26:53.670 --> 26:59.210 impression as well. And the way that I would express the divergence is this. The U.S., I do think, 26:59.310 --> 27:04.870 has an interest in making sure Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. I don't want nuclear proliferation 27:04.870 --> 27:09.350 in the Middle East. But in my view, it's quite clear that we could have at least, 27:09.550 --> 27:13.990 I don't know if we still can, but we could have achieved that interest diplomatically, right? 27:14.670 --> 27:19.450 I supported the Obama-Iran nuclear deal. I know a lot of conservatives feel uncomfortable 27:19.920 --> 27:24.530 with expressing support for that agreement, but Pat Buchanan, the co-founder of our magazine, 27:24.950 --> 27:28.390 he was very supportive of it. He was going on these conservative news channels, 27:28.430 --> 27:32.570 including Sean Hannity's show on Fox News, and calling it the singular achievement of the Obama 27:33.070 --> 27:37.650 presidency and foreign policy. He loved that deal. He advised Trump, through his columns, 27:37.830 --> 27:44.170 I mean, not to exit that deal, which Trump did withdraw from in 2018. But it seemed like Iran 27:44.170 --> 27:47.950 was willing to talk to Trump in this term. The negotiations I thought were going pretty 27:47.950 --> 27:53.970 well until we decided no enrichment. That's a new demand that, what's his name? Mike Walts, 27:54.090 --> 27:58.790 the then National Security Advisor, announced almost exactly a year ago on Face the Nation. 27:59.050 --> 28:02.510 He said we were going to have full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. 28:03.030 --> 28:06.190 Now that shows you that it was Israeli interest that we're predominating, 28:06.370 --> 28:11.110 because Israel knows that Iran is not going to accept such a deal, because Iran feels that 28:11.110 --> 28:15.450 they have a right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under the non-proliferation 28:15.450 --> 28:19.870 treaty to which they are a signatory. So that was a signal that Israel was starting to get what it 28:19.870 --> 28:25.070 wanted when we made that new demand that all the experts were saying Iran would simply not accept. 28:25.510 --> 28:29.490 Israel was also pushing for us to want ballistic missiles to be part of an agreement. 28:29.770 --> 28:33.330 Why? Because Israel knows that Iran is not going to give up their ballistic missiles 28:33.330 --> 28:38.310 or any other other conventional weaponry that they need to deter Israel from attacking. 28:39.130 --> 28:43.130 So Israel wanted to put range restrictions on their missiles so that Iran can't hit Israel, 28:43.130 --> 28:47.150 but that's the non-starter. Why would Iran agree to that? We'd totally nuts to expect a state to 28:47.150 --> 28:51.630 do that, especially given the belligerence that Israel and America have showed toward Iran for 28:51.630 --> 28:59.830 decades. So Israel's interest is to get regional hegemony in the Middle East, and Iran is basically 28:59.830 --> 29:04.870 the last big final boss. I mean, they're starting to talk about Turkey now, so I guess 29:04.870 --> 29:08.170 it's not the final boss. There's going to be a sequel to this quest for regional hegemony, 29:08.250 --> 29:12.750 but they're a main obstacle to Israel's desire to have freedom of action in the Middle East. 29:13.370 --> 29:17.890 That's what they want. They would probably in some ideal world prefer regime change, 29:18.090 --> 29:23.850 like install the deposed crown prince or whatever the Shah's son, but they know that's not going to 29:23.850 --> 29:27.650 happen. He's not going to have the legitimacy or credibility to actually govern that country, 29:27.650 --> 29:32.070 especially if the US and Israel install him. So I think they just want regime collapse, 29:32.370 --> 29:35.450 state collapse. They want chaos in Iran. They would be fine with that. 29:36.270 --> 29:39.910 That's what their goal is, and that's not in our interest. We don't want to do that 29:39.910 --> 29:44.130 because that's going to be bad for our Gulf partners, which honestly, if this war continues, 29:44.470 --> 29:48.850 those Gulf states might end up being depopulated in a worst case scenario. If we're seeing 29:48.850 --> 29:54.090 targeting of desalination plans that they rely on for their water, we might see a very different 29:54.090 --> 29:58.830 Persian Gulf going forward because those states really rely on a sense of security so that business 29:58.830 --> 30:02.690 people can go there, a kind of haven safe haven in the Middle East. I don't think that 30:02.690 --> 30:07.510 that's going to exist anymore predictably because of this war. We also don't want to 30:07.510 --> 30:11.270 generate refugee crises that are going to affect Europe. And just generally, 30:11.370 --> 30:16.370 we don't want as crazy chaos in this extremely important region in the world for the global economy. 30:16.990 --> 30:19.970 So those are the differences of interest. And I do agree that some people 30:19.970 --> 30:24.090 in the US foreign policy blob, is it somehow sometimes called, 30:24.570 --> 30:28.430 they don't really recognize a distinction between US and Israeli interests. I just 30:28.430 --> 30:33.110 tweeted the other day, Mark Dubowitz, he's the head of the Foundation for 30:33.110 --> 30:36.230 Defense of Democracies. I think he's the head. He's associated with that very 30:36.230 --> 30:41.050 hawkish think tank. He's a longtime Iran hawk. He went on Ross Doubt That's New York Times podcast 30:41.050 --> 30:45.750 and there was an interesting moment kind of midway through, I believe, where he said 30:45.750 --> 30:54.690 something about how our Gulf Arab neighbors, and I thought those aren't our neighbors. I mean, 30:54.770 --> 30:59.110 Dubowitz is an American citizen, I believe. I think he was in Canada for a while. I'm pretty 30:59.110 --> 31:03.650 sure he's a US citizen now. In any case, he's not an Israeli citizen. They're not our neighbors. 31:03.650 --> 31:08.110 We are not the same country as Israel. And these people seem to have difficulty 31:09.610 --> 31:15.290 remembering this, which is deeply disturbing. After Trump bombed Iran, he told the day they 31:15.290 --> 31:20.610 call her that he did so for Israel. I mean, one of the interesting things about Trump is his 31:20.610 --> 31:26.250 candor, but he just straight upset it. Right. And I think he thought, oh, they'll be happy 31:26.250 --> 31:30.070 because I did this for them. And it didn't even occur to him that he's not supposed to say 31:30.070 --> 31:35.670 that out loud. This was just as much to save Los Angeles and Boston as it was. 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I mean, oh, and incidentally, on your point, I've said this a couple of times, 32:31.110 --> 32:35.770 but I think it bears repeating over and over again. The Tucker Carlson interview with Mike 32:35.770 --> 32:41.090 Huckabee, Huckabee is sitting there listing all the problems in the world that would go away 32:41.090 --> 32:45.430 if this Iranian regime were replaced. And one of them was we wouldn't have this problem 32:45.430 --> 32:49.070 on the border with Lebanon. And Tucker wouldn't let him go any further. And he said, 32:51.130 --> 32:54.830 what problem on the border with Lebanon? I'm not having a problem on the border with Lebanon. 32:55.090 --> 33:01.210 I live in Maine. So again, what does he mean by the problem we're having on the border 33:01.210 --> 33:05.350 with Lebanon? Who's we in this? I mean, we know the answer, but there it is. 33:05.370 --> 33:08.350 Yeah, I mean, Mike Huckabee is one of the worst defenders. And by the way, 33:08.370 --> 33:12.870 he's not Jewish. He's a Christian Zionist. A lot of people feel it's inappropriate or 33:12.870 --> 33:16.730 something to talk about the subject. I reject that totally. A lot of people that I know who 33:16.730 --> 33:20.930 are Jewish in the left-right restraint coalition here in D.C. that I'm part of, 33:21.170 --> 33:25.030 they're very critical of Israel right now. They're very critical of this Iran war. I can mention 33:25.030 --> 33:29.650 Stephen Wertheim, Matt Duss, right? You said you talked to John Hoffman last week. I believe 33:29.650 --> 33:33.030 he's Jewish. I could be mistaken about that. If he is, I didn't know that. Okay. 33:33.730 --> 33:37.130 I mean, that's, I think he's blind to all these things. 33:37.650 --> 33:42.350 Right. And it just doesn't make sense to shy away from this, of course. 33:42.350 --> 33:48.510 The Israel lobby and Israeli officials are going to accuse people of being anti-Semitic, right? 33:48.630 --> 33:52.610 They do that. That's a tool that they use to shut down debate. It doesn't make sense, 33:52.610 --> 33:56.590 because Christian Zionists are a big part of the Israel lobby, right? They're not Jewish. 33:57.030 --> 34:02.030 And a lot of Jewish people are opposed to US militarism in the Middle East that ostensibly 34:02.030 --> 34:05.330 benefits Israel or is supposed to benefit Israel. I think we should also know as 34:05.330 --> 34:08.830 kind of an aside. I'm not sure this is even good for Israel's long-term interests, 34:08.830 --> 34:11.550 although that's not what I prioritize. I prioritize American interests. 34:11.550 --> 34:13.830 No, but I could certainly see making a good case that it's not. 34:14.610 --> 34:17.950 Yeah, totally. I mean, especially when you consider that, you know, 34:18.770 --> 34:24.050 it's Israel is basically experiencing a crisis and global public opinion and even America 34:24.050 --> 34:28.010 and other Western nations are turning against it. Young people especially are turning against 34:28.010 --> 34:34.030 Israel. We're likely heading for a situation where Israel loses the support of its erstwhile 34:34.030 --> 34:38.950 superpower patron in a moment when they have pissed off all of their neighbors. 34:39.290 --> 34:43.350 They haven't actually solved the strategic issues that have been concerning to them. 34:43.650 --> 34:47.590 Iran, I assume, will still be there. It's a country of 92 million people. 34:47.910 --> 34:51.190 They're going to be at pariah on the global stage. I actually think we're heading 34:51.190 --> 34:56.050 towards some situation where Israel realizes, oh, regional hegemony is basically impossible 34:56.050 --> 35:00.130 for us without the support of the US. And I don't think that support is going to last 35:00.130 --> 35:03.210 for the rest of my lifetime, maybe not even for the next decade or so. 35:03.770 --> 35:10.190 Yeah. I think you're actually going to start seeing the Israel question come up in politics, 35:10.770 --> 35:14.890 because it had been one of these things that was so bipartisan that didn't even raise it. 35:15.070 --> 35:18.870 So it was like the Federal Reserve before Ron Paul, who would even bring that up. 35:19.670 --> 35:22.490 But now it's not so clear that you can really get away with that. 35:22.770 --> 35:30.750 Now, Gavin Newsom obviously tried testing the waters. Oh, it's an apartheid regime 35:30.750 --> 35:35.150 or something. And then immediately it was, oh, I should never have said that. 35:35.250 --> 35:37.870 It's a wonderful place. He reveres Israel now. 35:39.150 --> 35:48.010 That didn't take long. But the Democrats have been able to keep that wing of their party quiet 35:48.010 --> 35:51.150 by basically telling them, where else are you going to go? 35:51.290 --> 35:53.490 I mean, it's what the Republicans do. Where else are you going to go? 35:54.310 --> 35:58.030 But I don't know. I think you're going to see on the debate stage for both parties 35:58.870 --> 36:05.630 alternative views on this. Because really, any patriot, no matter what your opinion of Israel is, 36:05.850 --> 36:12.090 has to be insulted by the way this small country treats our country and the 36:13.190 --> 36:17.930 impossibility of having rational discussions about it because the word anti-Semite is thrown 36:17.930 --> 36:22.330 around the way Jesse Jackson threw around racist. And they don't even see that. 36:22.690 --> 36:25.390 How embarrassing it is that they're reduced to that. Make an argument. 36:25.390 --> 36:29.950 Okay, I got it. You've called me a name and I'm the worst person in the world. Got it. 36:29.950 --> 36:31.850 Now that we've established that, can we please have an argument? 36:32.830 --> 36:37.290 Yeah, I think in the next elections, we're going to be learning how severe our democratic deficit 36:37.290 --> 36:41.530 actually is in the United States. Most Americans sympathize more with the Palestinians 36:41.530 --> 36:46.770 than with Israelis. Even the Republican Party, 50% of Republicans under the age of 50, 36:47.030 --> 36:51.950 have an unfavorable view of Israel. And the Democratic Party, Democrats have totally 36:51.950 --> 36:57.130 turned against Israel. So it's amazing that this geriatric political establishment, and I guess 36:57.130 --> 37:02.250 including even non-geriatric figures like Gavin Newsom, still can't make the switch and be critical 37:02.250 --> 37:06.250 of Israel and say, this is not in our interest because that would certainly reflect the voters' 37:06.810 --> 37:11.390 wishes in the Democratic Party. And so far, we haven't really had an option. 37:11.710 --> 37:15.190 Like, we haven't had anyone we could vote for to put an end to this so-called special 37:15.190 --> 37:19.990 relationship. But clearly, public opinion has changed so much. During the Iraq war, 37:19.990 --> 37:24.870 you never really heard from mainstream sources that Israel was involved in pushing for that war. 37:25.130 --> 37:31.050 Papua Cannon was arguing it, but he was marginalized for arguing that point. But if you look back at 37:31.050 --> 37:35.130 the way that that war unfolded, it's clear that it was basically the same story as what we're 37:35.130 --> 37:40.730 seeing now, maybe a little less overt. Everyone says Ariel Sharon was opposed to the Iraq war. 37:40.930 --> 37:47.070 That's deeply misleading. He expressed some uncertainty about whether it was a good 37:47.070 --> 37:51.430 idea. He said we should hit Iran instead of Iraq, but he changed his tune pretty quickly. 37:51.710 --> 37:57.230 And Israel was definitely pushing this narrative that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons. 37:57.370 --> 38:00.890 They were the main thread. We needed to go war with them. The U.S. should take them out and then 38:00.890 --> 38:05.490 hit Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu, he's called a private citizen. People say, oh, he was a private 38:05.490 --> 38:09.510 citizen when he testified before Congress in favor of the Iraq war. That's very misleading. 38:09.910 --> 38:14.350 He had just been the prime minister. He was actually, I believe, the finance minister at 38:14.350 --> 38:19.390 the time that the Iraq war began in late 2002 and early 2003. He was the foreign minister. 38:19.890 --> 38:23.890 And even during this break when he wasn't technically in a position in government, 38:23.890 --> 38:28.830 he was Sharon's main rival in the Likud Party, and he was ubiquitous on American television 38:28.830 --> 38:34.070 promoting the war in Iraq. And Neocons here in America had deep ties to Benjamin Netanyahu. 38:34.230 --> 38:37.810 They had served as his political advisors, and they agreed with him that we should go 38:37.810 --> 38:41.730 after Iraq. So it was the same story then. The difference is now you hear people talking 38:41.730 --> 38:47.930 about it. Now Americans have woken up to this reality, and we'll see if our politicians have 38:47.930 --> 38:51.990 also woken up. I mean, in some level they already have always known this, but we'll see if they 38:51.990 --> 38:58.850 start reflecting the will of the voters. One more thing. What do you mean when you say that 38:59.870 --> 39:05.790 you've expressed concern about an erosion of the so-called nuclear taboo? Where are you seeing 39:05.790 --> 39:11.530 that? I'm seeing that in Trump. I'm deeply concerned about nuclear weapons use. 39:12.330 --> 39:17.030 During the Cold War, we were kind of saved by mutually assured destruction where both the Soviet 39:17.030 --> 39:21.270 Union and the United States figured out, oh, we can't really nuke the other state because then 39:21.270 --> 39:25.390 we'll be nuked in turn. And then a lot of game theory and political science developed out of that. 39:25.510 --> 39:30.930 And all of the strategic planners in both the USSR and the United States had that as a 39:30.930 --> 39:36.550 precept, like as an axiom of this Cold War environment that actually nuclear weapons use, 39:36.830 --> 39:40.870 no one's going to win that war so we can't do it. This Iran situation is different because Iran 39:40.870 --> 39:45.130 doesn't have nuclear weapons. No one thinks that if we nuke Iran that Russia or China are going 39:45.130 --> 39:49.810 to nuke us in turn. So mad, mutually assured destruction doesn't apply. So we're kind of 39:49.810 --> 39:53.930 reliant on the nuclear taboo, which is a political science concept, which says that one 39:53.930 --> 39:59.270 reason we haven't seen nuclear weapons used since in Japan and World War II is that it's 39:59.270 --> 40:04.210 just taboo. When state planners think of the option of using nuclear weapons, it feels a little 40:04.210 --> 40:07.310 gross to them. They don't want to do it. It seems like something you're not supposed to do. It's 40:07.310 --> 40:10.430 not part of the script of international politics. It's something kind of forbidden 40:10.930 --> 40:16.030 for kind of deep moral reasons in the conduct of military operations. 40:16.670 --> 40:21.110 Trump in the past has asked reportedly, oh, we have all these nuclear weapons. 40:21.250 --> 40:25.610 Why can't we use them exactly? So I think he might be willing to use them. 40:25.610 --> 40:31.450 And if you look at the rhetoric from him and Hexeth, the only thing they can say that's consistent 40:31.450 --> 40:37.190 seemingly is that they're obliterating Iran. That's the word that we keep on hearing, obliterate. 40:37.530 --> 40:41.910 Hexeth says he's going to reign death from the skies. He seems to think that ideas just 40:41.910 --> 40:46.610 to kill as many Iranians as possible. So I think that there's a fair chance. I'm not going 40:46.610 --> 40:50.650 to say it's probable. I just think the chances are higher than at any point during the Russia 40:50.650 --> 40:54.210 Ukraine war, for example. And a lot of people were worried about nuclear weapons used there. 40:54.210 --> 41:00.290 I think there's a chance that Trump feels stuck. He doesn't know what to do. Sheldon Adelson, who was 41:00.290 --> 41:06.870 a mega donor for Trump. He's passed away a few years ago. He once suggested, proposed, that the 41:06.870 --> 41:12.670 United States drop a nuclear weapon as a kind of demonstration in the desert in Iran to show 41:12.670 --> 41:18.530 the Iranian government that we mean business. His widow, Miriam Adelson, is a top Trump donor 41:18.530 --> 41:22.750 and Trump whisperer. Is she saying the same things to Trump? I think there's a fair 41:22.750 --> 41:27.690 chance she might be. Another possibility is that Israel resorts to nuclear weapons just out of 41:27.690 --> 41:31.910 desperation. It's a small country. As I mentioned earlier, there's clearly problems in the air 41:31.910 --> 41:37.050 defense. If Iran continues to retain the ability to hit Israel with its ballistic missiles, 41:37.090 --> 41:41.170 including hitting Demona, which is the city where the nuclear research facility of Israel is 41:41.170 --> 41:46.810 located, I think Israel, if ballistic missiles are raining down on it, might resort to 41:46.810 --> 41:52.270 nuclear weapons as well. I don't know about the status of the nuclear taboo within 41:52.270 --> 41:57.590 Israeli strategic circles, but I am concerned that Trump himself has not internalized it. 41:58.750 --> 42:06.710 We keep hearing Trump saying that he expects this to wind down soon, and then, of course, 42:06.790 --> 42:10.790 what we hear is, well, the Iranians might have a thing or two to say about that. 42:12.310 --> 42:19.110 It's to the point now where you've, like everybody has to some degree mocked the 42:19.110 --> 42:23.590 the Monday morning settling the market's comments, but this Monday morning, 42:23.630 --> 42:27.990 selling the market's comments was not very settling to the markets. But on the other hand, 42:28.130 --> 42:33.570 it's like the markets have already more or less priced in a general uncertainty. 42:34.970 --> 42:40.150 The tariff stuff would get spikes up and down in the markets, because that would have an 42:40.150 --> 42:45.890 immediate economic effect. But these statements about how the war is going and what's likely 42:45.890 --> 42:49.370 to happen at this point, it's like the market realizes, all right, well, this guy's talking 42:49.370 --> 42:53.630 out of his, you know where. And so we just have to kind of make our way based on 42:54.270 --> 42:58.010 what we can piece together. But it's we're not going to make crazy 42:58.730 --> 43:04.670 jumps up and down based on these statements. Yeah, totally. I mean, a lot of people have 43:04.670 --> 43:09.710 been saying it seems like political commentators understand the dynamics of this war a bit 43:09.710 --> 43:13.790 better than traders and oil buyers and people who affect the oil price directly, 43:14.350 --> 43:20.370 because the markets didn't seem to be reflecting what the price should be based on the pessimism of 43:20.370 --> 43:25.350 geopolitical analysts that the war could be wrapped up soon. I think we're starting to see 43:25.350 --> 43:30.190 now exactly what you say. I mean, the price I think went up to 116 early this morning. I 43:30.190 --> 43:34.510 haven't checked it since previously Trump statements had been able to calm the markets. 43:35.110 --> 43:38.990 And we should also note the oil market's kind of difficult to predict the price action on 43:38.990 --> 43:44.370 a day-to-day basis because it's based on a futures contract, I believe, like what will the price be 43:44.370 --> 43:50.170 in a week? And so there's a lot of speculation that's going on and a lot of people are responding to 43:50.170 --> 43:54.370 not what they think will be the case for the war, but what they imagine other people 43:54.370 --> 43:59.550 involved in the market think will be. But now I think it's clear that this is a bona fide 43:59.550 --> 44:04.890 serious energy crisis. Other countries are already pursuing or thinking of pursuing like 44:04.890 --> 44:08.210 rationing measures and stuff like that to make sure they don't have to use energy. 44:08.990 --> 44:13.270 And this is going to hit us. And we are a very oil intensive economy. So if you hear people say, 44:13.310 --> 44:17.410 oh, we've attained energy independence. So this actually doesn't matter. That's not how it works. 44:17.910 --> 44:22.870 The oil price is set based on these global benchmarks in America compared to China, for example, 44:22.970 --> 44:28.170 is much more oil intensive. We don't have as many electric vehicles. China has been electrifying 44:28.170 --> 44:32.810 their economy and their transportation system much more than we have. So actually, 44:32.830 --> 44:36.870 when the price goes up, the expectation among people, economists who actually know what 44:36.870 --> 44:41.310 they're talking about is that this is going to affect America's economy more than China's economy. 44:41.890 --> 44:46.590 And so people like Mark Dubowitz are saying, oh, the price of one only went up 50 cents a 44:46.590 --> 44:51.830 gallon back when that was the case. I think it's higher now. And if your car gets 28 miles 44:51.830 --> 44:56.570 per gallon or whatever, that's not a big deal. He's not considering 18 wheelers run on diesel. 44:57.030 --> 45:02.050 Diesel is extremely expensive now relative to what it was just a month ago. That's 45:02.050 --> 45:05.210 what's delivering your groceries and your consumer products. So the price of 45:05.210 --> 45:09.150 everything is going to go up as a result of this energy crisis. And there's a fair chance that 45:09.150 --> 45:16.550 America has impacted worse than China. So I'd like to end with a note of hope. 45:17.010 --> 45:23.010 You gave us a note of hope earlier, but nobody knows me by the time this comes out in however 45:23.010 --> 45:30.790 many hours or whatever. Who knows where we'll even be? The only note of hope I can think 45:30.790 --> 45:39.610 of is that at least a lot of good it's done us, but there are skeptical voices on the right. Not 45:39.610 --> 45:44.650 skeptical. Not just skeptical is lame. At this point, being a skeptic is not really enough. You 45:44.650 --> 45:49.290 have to be an outright opponent. And I do see a lot of people with big audiences saying, 45:49.490 --> 45:56.330 this is a bad idea. And unfortunately, there are still a huge number of minds that are made 45:56.330 --> 46:01.010 up on the basis of watching Fox News. And my friend Bob Murphy said the other day, 46:02.130 --> 46:06.370 he said, I've been I've been listening to and he listened. He listed some non-interventionists. 46:06.670 --> 46:12.030 And he says, and as a result, nothing in the news surprises me. He says, whereas if all I listened 46:12.030 --> 46:18.130 to were Ben Shapiro and Fox News, the world would be incomprehensible to me. Nothing would 46:18.130 --> 46:25.470 make sense. And so I don't know. I don't know how to wrap this up. I really don't. I mean, 46:25.550 --> 46:31.930 I want something, I want this to come to an end, but I can completely understand why Iran's position 46:31.930 --> 46:36.310 would have to be, you don't get to come in here and bomb us every six months because you think 46:36.310 --> 46:42.390 we have too many missiles of a certain kind. And I'm not even talking nuclear. That's got 46:42.390 --> 46:49.530 to stop. I don't know. I don't know what happens. Yeah. I mean, I'm not optimistic about the geopolitical 46:49.530 --> 46:55.070 situation. I think the second order effects of this war are going to be disastrous for America's 46:55.070 --> 47:00.790 military power relative to China, for example. I do think there is some room for optimism as far 47:00.790 --> 47:05.210 as domestic politics because I'm quite sure. I mean, I hesitate to make strong predictions. 47:05.370 --> 47:08.790 I was predicting very strongly that Trump would go to war, you know, on Israel's 47:08.790 --> 47:13.470 behalf, basically against Iran. I'm a little bit more hesitant to make predictions about how the war 47:13.470 --> 47:17.510 will go because there's just too many factors and we don't know exactly, you know, what Iran's 47:17.510 --> 47:21.470 capabilities are, what their strategic thinking is or what Trump's strategic thinking is. So 47:21.470 --> 47:25.370 the fog of war element and the way things are moving so fast makes things hard to predict. 47:25.670 --> 47:32.130 But I feel quite sure that six months from now, a year from now, people like you and me and 47:32.130 --> 47:36.350 Joe Kent who resigned from his top counterterrorism position and Tucker Carlson and other people 47:36.350 --> 47:41.830 who are opposing the Iran war will be vindicated, right? People will see pretty clearly, okay, 47:41.950 --> 47:45.790 those are the guys who actually made sense, whereas Ben Shapiro, there are just too many 47:45.790 --> 47:50.210 clips that you can pull up and show people he was totally wrong, right? He was saying that 47:50.210 --> 47:55.370 there's no way that Israel is going to drag America into war. I can 100% assure you Trump's 47:55.370 --> 48:00.250 not going to bomb Iran. And then he was saying before this war, oh, America should go bomb 48:00.250 --> 48:03.690 Iran and don't worry about the Strait of Hormuz. We could take out their military in three 48:03.690 --> 48:08.450 minutes flat. These are direct quotes from Ben Shapiro that have clearly proven that he 48:08.450 --> 48:12.130 either doesn't know what he's talking about or he doesn't actually care about how this 48:12.130 --> 48:14.370 affects America because he just wants to take out Iran. 48:16.130 --> 48:19.850 Well, on that note, what's a website for people to follow you? 48:20.930 --> 48:26.490 So you mentioned my my ex-account. So that's at AK Day 89. I also write a weekly column. 48:26.610 --> 48:30.070 Sometimes I write two columns a week at the American Conservative. I write for 48:30.070 --> 48:34.690 print issue as well. So you can just go to the American Conservative webpage. You'll see my name 48:34.690 --> 48:37.350 on the masthead if you want to read my writings there. 48:37.810 --> 48:44.310 And it's theamericanconservative.com. And as people know, since I have a print newsletter 48:44.310 --> 48:51.390 at supportinglisteners.com, I very much believe in print in this age of a God forsaken 48:51.390 --> 48:56.370 screen every time you turn around. I like the idea of sitting in my recliner holding 48:56.370 --> 49:00.350 something physical and reading it. So while you're over there, of course, 49:01.610 --> 49:08.390 read Andrew's columns. But what is it? One dinner out, not even that, to subscribe, 49:08.650 --> 49:13.710 to get the print edition? Get the print edition. Be retro. Those were better days. 49:13.910 --> 49:17.470 And one of the reasons was that we held reading material in our hands, Doug, on it. 49:17.850 --> 49:21.370 Well, Andrew Day, thanks so much for your time. And I hope people do check out 49:21.370 --> 49:23.970 the American Conservative. Thanks so much for having me. 49:24.650 --> 49:25.930 And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. 49:28.150 --> 49:33.370 Make yourself and those you love less vulnerable to the regime, both mentally and physically. 49:33.950 --> 49:39.610 Get more forbidden information at tomsfreebooks.com and be sure to subscribe to the show wherever 49:39.610 --> 49:51.650 you listen. See you next time. Like the sound of the Tom Woods show, 49:51.930 --> 49:57.230 my audio production is provided by Podsworth Media. Check them out at podsworth.com. 49:57.920 --> 50:03.630 Enter code woods50 to get 50% off your first order. If your recording sounds rough, 50:03.970 --> 50:07.510 the Podsworth app can make it not only listenable but professional. 50:08.050 --> 50:12.210 Remember, when you use code woods50, you'll get half off your first order, 50:12.370 --> 50:14.270 and you'll also be supporting this show.