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Hey, buddy, what's going on man?
I'll just um doing good man doing good. I
Gotta say I guess I have to start out
Bro, I did warn you. I said I said that these guys have tricks up their sleeve
I you know, I noted that they they still have firepower to delist
You know, I said hey, this is kind of like this is the top of our trend for the past like three years
There's a possibility that you know that something could happen like expect that they've still got tricks up their sleeve, so
But no, I mean, maybe I could have been I wasn't quite Nostradamus enough
For for myself for my fans. I guess I have to issue an a formal apology
For for not knowing that it was cracking that was gonna do list across the EU. I
Apologize. I'm sorry. I'll try to do better
Yeah, you weren't surveilling the Monero blockchain to see to see see the Monero moving to crack in and being sold and whatnot
You weren't you're not capable of that
Maybe that's what those transaction counts
Extra transaction counts were like somebody new right? I wonder who's selling right who who are the assholes who are selling?
Like how many how many inside how many people you think new
Right. Yeah, it's the word really
Yeah, somebody like somebody new some insiders now
I think I actually I wonder
these guys the best way for them to cap the prices for them to get as much Monero as possible and
Probably at this point the best way for them to get as much Monero as possible
In addition to maybe trying to mine some of it, you know, maybe there's some like deal with bit main or nice hash or whoever
But then you know, like they could probably use these events and these things that they know about ahead of time
Yeah, so they can sell high and then they know that people are gonna swing trade and then buy low
And they can see all the inflows right like in terms of you know as far as crack in and other
Exchanges and these you know the insta swap exchanges they can
Assuming that they they are in partnership or that maybe chain analysis as at least buying the information from these exchanges
They can see in flows. They know when when the uptick begins
They know when the volume starts to increase when when the bottom is near. So, I mean, they've got the tools to time this thing
So in other words, like they probably know that their ability to limit a Monero's price is coming to an end
And so they need to accumulate as much as possible until that time
And you know, they'll do the same thing like it's it's the same thing with gold, right?
Like they have a there's a limited ability that they have to suppress the gold price
And so, you know, they've got backup plan B plan C for when it's time for the breakout to happen
Yeah, I mean how many more hammers can drop right? What do we have left? Well, we have crack in us
That would be like that would be like the final the final leg, right after that anything else would be insignificant. Oh, yeah
Yeah
Right. Well, that's for sure
Yeah, that's um that would surprise me a little bit
I feel I would like to think that Kraken would push back at the same time Jay Powell Jesse Powell not
Not Jerome Powell
Jay Powell of Kraken. He stepped down as the CEO in 2022 like September 2022
So, um, he's still on the he's still the chairman of the board. So, you know, there's still like maybe a positive influence there
But the FBI also rated his home in in 2023 and they said it was unrelated to crypto
They said that he hacked some I don't know some art people or something like he he hacked some art
People and tried to do something allegedly so they raided his home. It's like get the fuck out of here
That's that is no, no
You just wanted an excuse to go raid his home and see if you could find any possible little thing that you could
To the I didn't even know when did this happen? When does his home get rated? This is
2023, you know, the New York Times reported it that I think it was like July 2023
Jesus, they were accusing him of being involved in
Some what was it some something like a hack against art people or something to do with art?
I don't know man my details the details are fuzzy for me, but it was allegedly completely unrelated to crypto
But yeah, yeah, just like they found
Just like they found child porn on on Cody Wilson's computer. It's like, okay. Yeah
Yeah, showing people how to how to do these guns or whatever the 3d printed guns and how convenient
It's like it's just there. I know it's it's it's terrifying right there. They just do that to frickin anyone. I mean it's
Jesus Christ guys, that's what we just need. We need a lot more of us, right?
It's it's hard for them to do it to a lot of people they could take out one or two
But as we build momentum, it's gonna be it's gonna be very difficult for them to stop
All of us they can't stop us all the area 51 meme was just like totally wasted on aliens
There's like so many there's a dozen other things we could use this for
But yeah, that was a week what what other hammers can drop crack in us. What else we got I
Guess they could maybe start banning it
For corporate usage in general, you know, like I think it's it's illegal to use in is it
Dubai it's it's a pan and Dubai. Maybe yeah, Japan too. I think I don't think it's illegal for like
Individuals to use it still
Dubai it might be illegal for individuals to use it. I'm not totally sure on that one
But like corporations in Dubai are not allowed to use Monero from my understanding at this point
Yeah, so just just making it illegal would be the next the next route
Yeah, well, it's gonna be harder in the states, but you know, we've kind of seen the breakdown of the rule of law here as well
Yeah, I mean the good thing is this is all happening at a time when we're transitioning towards not needing centralized exchanges at all
We have
Havino, which is starting to grow and gain gain some traction. We have Sarai decks. That's right around right around the corner
And there, you know that that promises to really be a fluid way to go in and out of Monero and other cryptos without KYC
AML and without having to go through like an exchange process
So that's that's gonna be quite promising and it couldn't come at a better time
We have basic swap you had them on the show not as not a
Not completely there yet in terms of being super super easy to use but making a lot of headway and growing
And purely peer-to-peer based on atomic swaps
Completely unstoppable. It's people just running their own software
so we have these solutions and
They all are growing in
Momentum they're growing in their their usability and they're growing in the amount of users that are using them. So
Monero appears to be as unstoppable as ever
You know, I was um, I was looking at
Trocador
The other day and it was like all of the options for tour have gone away
There's literally one option now that you can do a Monero swap via tour
Yeah, I thought that was really weird like like everyone
Including Exile X you can't yeah, they won't they won't do a swap over tour now
Really? Yeah
Yeah, so I guess you have to make sure you have to go you have to exit tour to a VPN
To mask your tour usage if you want to use these so the only the only tour up the only instant swap off
Still offering tour access is what?
Oh, I don't remember. Let me go to Chocador. Well Chocador itself. You could access by a tour, right?
Yeah, you can get you can access Chocador by tour, but you can't
But like once you try to make the swap and you see the listing
You you can't you can't actually like none of that none of the offering
So what you get downgraded to the clear net address
Yeah, well, it's not that you get downgraded. It's just like they're grayed out
It's like hey, you could use this but you're on tour right now. So you can use this this this or this option
specifically excluded Chocador from
allowing
Anyone to make a trade through their tour their onion even though it's going through them
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I see they've like opted out essentially
Let me see. Let me just put in like a trade. Maybe I can show you guys
Oh wait, I've got to get to the tour
Yeah, I didn't plan on showing that so let's
Bear if you need me to
I
Surprise they don't have their there don't have their onion
Header because of their onion address doesn't show up if I just go to Chocador app doesn't request
Sam but Bent is referring to
Banning Monero making it illegal will increase the value just like drugs or anything else. Yeah, that's that sounds nice
But that's I don't I don't I actually don't agree with that. I mean, maybe maybe a little bit
It's just that like the problem is that people are addicted to drugs people fucking love drugs
Like who doesn't like drugs like very few people don't at least like some drug even if it's just coffee, bro
So the problem is that like drugs market themselves, right? People have like this demand for drugs
And so you make them illegal and you know people still but but they use Monero as a tool to obtain them
in many ways, so
If you know that the desire to use Monero will still exist right the utility even if it's like that
Yeah, I mean that's there's no truth. No, there's really no other way to run a dark market without Monero right now
I mean
Unless you want to really take a high risk
so not you know, I'm not saying yes, that's right or wrong but
Monero is the best tool for it and there's definitely a need and people are gonna
People are gonna use it for that purpose that that would be my take on that
What what what is the price need to be for it to sustain that market? I?
Guess you can do the math on that
Onboard users tip 25 cents tucks. I helped an Uber driver set up a Monero comma wall in an iOS
I wasn't able to scan his QR code. I think because his phone was set to dark background
I've had these issues before don't know a wallet version, but what have been current iOS version as of
Port the bogus just use your feedback
Yeah, I'm not sure why
Dark mode would have prevented to the cure cook me scannable
On iOS because we don't really do anything based on the OS
Theme at all. So that's something
I'll see if there's a ticket open that internally already
It's interesting
I
23 hold on body making Monero legal just push everyone to use it by tour instead of clear net it can't be stopped
Anyway, yeah, I agree. So here's a body was talking about as you can see we've got three options here
Exilex we like Exilex
Alpha cash and wizard swap wizard swap is very based
Three options everything else. They do not allow
Tor I to P trades to happen. So out of these one
Bump your bump your amount bump it to like something past 10,000 and see if that changes things
It's like point to VTC. Yeah. Oh, so let me change right here. It's edit. There we go
Are you supposed to screencast with tour?
I'm just playing
Bro, it's ruined. Oh
No, they can see the size of my browser window
Yeah
As we speak the feds watching this show or like aha look at the look at the resolution on it
I probably do you have a slightly custom fingerprint though? Because as you can see I have you block a bit more than oh
Snap yeah, actually
You know, I I'm not gonna lie sometimes I change the resolution of the browser like I'll I'll make the screen bigger smaller
It's like
Come on. Yeah, are you gonna find me that way? I don't probably not still got three options
Still okay, okay, and this is maybe it just happened to be
Yeah, okay, so I am seeing Xlix on here
The other day I was looking at it and it was I don't remember which one was available
But there was only one and I was like wait Xlix is is is not on there
like
Not many options, but there are a few still
Yeah, there's definitely fewer you access you're accessing it by a tour right now talks or sign
This is correct. You can see the onion link at the top of his other webpage
Very cool very cool very cool
All right, so body just spread in false fake news man body's trying to drive down the price of an era
I was spreading my truth, bro
Truth is I see it
Or at least
And now he's trying to crash an era I
Was the Fed boy that that was selling down price at the top
I will give us you I mean, well, I don't even know what's that has it since bounce back up
I haven't really been following it closely. I would let it are we anywhere near my 202 number for Minerotopia in one month
I mean define it back
Where we're you know, we're coming back we've had a bounce back
You can see here. We have the so all of this all of this junk right here one two three four five looks like five or six days
Almost a week there that things were just crashing
When is the actual delisting date? Oh
One of it. Yeah. Yeah, so October 31st
They're gonna halt all trading and deposits for people registered in the EU
And they're gonna close any open orders and then December 31st is the withdrawal like deadline
So get your get your Minerot off of Kraken before New Year's apparently if you're in the any European Economic Region
Yeah, yeah only for EU people I
Mean like you said they're running out of firepower like Kraken is
Kraken is the last major exchange after anyone else D list
I it's hard to see that it's gonna matter hardly at all
I mean I can at least appreciate Kraken because they've been
They it seems like they have been somewhat dedicated at least compared to the others to trying to keep Minerot as long as possible
Yeah
Yeah, although, you know, you could say that's you could say that that's some you know
That was just part of their long game, right?
Like they saved Kraken for their for their back-end firepower after they exhausted finance and their other options
You know now
But at what point does the you know the
Feds right the the states around the world
That are essentially the ones behind these these listings that are putting the pressure on exchanges to delist
At what point do they realize
That the only way they can gain some insight into huge using Minerot and what they're using it for and gain any insight at all
Is to have people come through centralized exchanges to obtain the Minerot like it's like why would you be taking this approach?
they're literally
pushing it off into the fringes and
Putting fuel to the fire and allowing it to grow stronger and stronger as opposed to you know
Trying to work with it which we've seen them do with Bitcoin in a very effective way
Right to the point where we we say here that it's been co-opted, right? It's like fully integrated into
The current the current fiat system. They're surveilling it
No, they know everybody that's obtaining their Bitcoin. They can see it moving
I mean if they want to gain any insight into how people are using Minerot
They need to at least the only thing they could try to do is have them come through an exchange
You know and they could try to figure out at least who the who the players are at least know who's using it
Why would they give that away?
It is a good point. I would say that
I would say that that they might still have some reasonably good methods
Maybe they have some reasonably good methods of determining who's using Minerot
So for example, if you're running a node and you're not going over tour
You know, maybe maybe they can figure that out
But it seems like most people are gonna be using a VPN at least probably maybe most VPNs are honeypots
So they're like confident that even if you're using a VPN, they can still see your Minerot usage your Minerot node
Maybe they have other methods. I don't know. I mean even if it's not a honeypot
It's
Still like most people are going to probably be using VPN paths that exist only within their own country
Right because it's faster and you know, like if you're using a VPN in the United States
The the BPS companies and the data centers there. They're walking regardless of whether the VPN company is or not
Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's that is a good point. The ISPs are like a huge weakness
Especially with traffic analysis and that kind of thing and timing attacks
Like who's to say that they haven't just like made very sophisticated timing analysis attacks and signatures
Especially with growing bandwidth, like that could be like a negative aspect of growing bandwidth is that they have the overhead
Like I'm just thinking out loud here
So but it seems to me that with with large bandwidth
You would have the overhead to introduce slight timing attacks so that you can you can still
Correlate people's activity from one side of the VPN to the other
Yeah, I do like what MoVet is doing with their day. I
Think it's like D. A. I. T. As you know AI whatever they're they're basically padding packets
So they all look the same and they're adding noise to
Your your VPN connection to try and
obscure
The real data that you're you're actually using the real connections you're making to try and
Help prevent timing attacks, but that's a hard thing to do
Do you know if my VPN is doing the same thing? I'm not sure
Let's see we have a we have XMR XMR chat from nihilist
He tipped point zero zero eight manero he says that
Making manero illegal will just push everyone to use it via tour instead of clear net. It can't be stopped anyways
Yeah, I definitely hundred percent
Or I to pee is anyone out there any chads out there using I to pee to run a manero no not I
We have it integrated into no, no
I never
Like in in all my social media forays
I've I don't think I've seen even maybe maybe one maybe two people
That is that have talked about using manero over I to pee
It's got to be somebody just for fun. I
Guess not all right
Yeah, so I guess we can just hop into the price here. So okay
Yeah, we had the we had the cocking D listing we dropped there for a week
Again, this is another reason why I like wave magic so much. She's smashed right into the lower standard deviation area
It's also like, you know, it's also the same spot that we bottomed to the last times that we had the various
Negative price events and then yeah, just came right back to the upside
As of the past like a couple hours, we've had a little bit of a cool off here
But but nothing nothing major so
I would I would imagine that as long as there's no major downside forces for the broad crypto
Markets that we should continue to make it to towards the upside. We're basically at 150, which is the stable coin price of Manero
Occasionally we foray into 170 or maybe even 180 occasionally
Yeah, I mean, obviously, I'd like to see this thing get up to the top side
I honestly I don't care it can go down it can go back down and I can just buy more go up and I can spend more
You know, whatever whatever Manero wants to do here is fine by me
So, um, other than that
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm wondering I'm trying thinking to myself
What's the next thing that they can do to really try and smash Manero's price to the downside apart from, you know
A broader market crash
I'm not seeing much guys like what are they gonna do they're gonna do list in the United States
Maybe maybe maybe what they'll do is they'll find isolated states to then like trying to, you know
Poke it crack in be like, okay. It's not in New York
Let's delist it from California now, right? Like that would be my next guess like if you if I had to make my most educated
Scientific wild ass guess I would say they they might start going after crack into delist in particular states
Where they've got the political will to make that happen. So um
You know, and then of course the first that the first one will be the most impactful because they'll be like, oh my god
Now they're coming for the US
So just keep that in the back of your mind and that could happen
Let's see we have bounced back obviously bounced back a little bit here with
Respect to Bitcoin in terms of the Manero versus Bitcoin price again, you know the same thing with wave magic here
You've got this you form these these bands you form these lower standard deviations
We didn't quite make it all the way down there. You probably can't see that
So I'll draw this. This is the the moving average cluster and these are short-term moving averages, right?
That the longer term ones are on the bigger chart up here, right?
I think you guys can actually see that maybe let me zoom in a little bit here
That might be easier to see
And also, you know, if you're on YouTube you go to the 1080p charts and you'll be able to see the lines much more clearly
Yeah, so that's again why I like the standard deviations why I like this wave magic so much because it really
It really does help you
To visualize where some key levels are it's not perfect and it's despite it's it's nomenclature
It's not exactly magic
But you know, it's the closest thing we got so basically Manero found support here at the moving average cluster
Relative to Bitcoin and we're making a bit of a bounce here
In terms of wave magic, I would probably be targeting this area for like if you're a trader, you know, if you're flipping
Like let's suppose you're you're flipping between Manero and Bitcoin on a regular basis
On on simple swap or some of these other decentralized exchanges
Is this one simple swapping it's a simple swap
Anyways, yeah, I would be looking to hit the standard deviation clusters in blue
And you know, then you might flip back into Bitcoin
I would never ever recommend flipping back into Bitcoin
But if you are so inclined that might be that you would try and do it
Through the delisting
Nonsense basically what's interesting is that nothing changed with the divergences relative tracking
Everyone basically kept their price
Relatively close to cracking polo is still as usual schizophrenic, you know
Just oscillating up and down to the tune of 1%
Around the cracking price, but they probably don't have any Manero anyways, and if they do it's probably it's probably just like bought trading and nonsense
So yeah, they don't really matter that much
Maybe Q coin actually kind of matters. Yeah, actually, you know, let me let me walk a step back here
Q coin and Mexi
Hypothetically if they were gonna try and delist Manero from further exchanges
Those might be somewhat impactful ones because I think that those guys actually do some Manero trading like people actually
I think do trade a little bit on those exchanges. They do have some volume
Especially when Binance shut down, I think Q coin took over a lot of that a lot of that volume
So yeah, I mean that could be a case. I think Q coin is being
Currently attacked by the Fed bullies. I don't know what the latest is on that
That was like maybe almost a year ago that that was happening. So
Manero versus gold continues to be sort of in the on the downside of this trend hanging out largely in between the
Long-term standard deviation lower standard deviation and then the shorter term standard deviation
So that's where it seems to be hanging out gold this week has been largely flat
In fact for the most part markets were relatively flat this week. We'll talk about the macro in a bit
Effectively kind of just neutral
Markets showing a little bit of strength like hey, we're not quite ready to crash yet
Let's see check in the comments
Jack needs to bring jack said need to bring back local Manero
Yeah, it would be nice if local Manero came back
But hey, maybe maybe it's good that they left because when local Manero was that easy for us
We didn't actually do the more properly decentralized
methods of trading right
So
Yeah, I don't know. It's too bad. There was a lot of trust there too with that platform in particular
So, yeah, that's that's basically what the mineral price looks like
Let's take a look at the dominance
Manero dominance looks very similar to Manero versus Bitcoin for obvious reasons Bitcoin dominance has been doing pretty good
Yeah, nothing to see here privacy coins in general. We'll start with Zano. They are still consolidating
After their big run to the upside
There's not a huge impetus at the moment. I think push things too much higher in a general sense
for for the privacy coins
You know, maybe the crack and be listing perhaps
Right, perhaps that that could the reverse reaction from that on a medium term basis
Perhaps that could be the impetus necessary for Zano to go to the upside
but at the moment, you know, this is still consolidation and
I don't know. Let's draw some dubious lines here. Just just because
Though maybe it could look something like that
I mean hypothetically you could see this kind of consolidation pattern happening for the rest of the year on the basis of what we've now seen
For I guess you would say for about a month here. So
Yeah, it would be hard to say I wouldn't be able to tell you that Zano is going to break out sooner or later
But it is kind of a pendant formation that's that's starting to develop here
So yeah patients if you're a Zano holder, I guess I would I would probably still have some patients
This is the kind of like if you bought Zano if you smartly bought down here and you have gains
One it's never wrong to take profit. This is true
But two if you smartly didn't put a significant amount of your net worth in Zano
Like if you if you fucking yoloed onto Zano, then you might take some profits right here
You're up 3x, but if you just put a little bit of cash onto there said, hey, you know
This is an outside player. Maybe it'll hit
If I'm you
I'm me. I'm leaving that in Zano
You're just gonna let that sit for two years guys until one year two year whenever the top of the next blowoff is
You're gonna let that shit sit there because you don't know if this thing can do another 10x, right?
It could hypothetically do another 10x Zano is very low market cap
So this thing could you know, I mean, I'm not saying I'm not predicting 10x, right?
Like please I'm not predicting 100x, but it could stuff that happens, right and in Zano is an interesting project, right?
So it's it's me and run by a guy that was one of the early guys in Monero
He seems like a good dude. He seems like an honest dude
He doesn't give any, you know red flags or Spidey Spidey since tinglies that he's you know in a farious whatever
So the point is anyways guys if you want to make big life-changing gains
You have to give yourself the opportunity to make those gains
And that's why I say like put a small amount of your net worth onto a play like this because
If this thing does do a 5x or 10x from here and you bought some small, you know
You bought some down here. You really could be looking at significant cash for yourself
And because you put a small amount of your net worth. It's like hey if I lose everything
I'm still okay with it, right? That's powerful because it gives you the mindset that says hey
I don't need to touch this. I'm just gonna let it ride whatever
The biggest gains you're gonna make in a lot of cases are gonna be the stuff that you bought
And then you just let it sit and then you woke up one day. You're like, oh wow, that's crazy
I didn't expect that
at least, you know, that's
You know, it's kind of how it's happened for me from time to time. So
Okay, Firo is still doing this probably bottoming pattern. I think we called this a double W bottoming pattern last week
So I don't know if that will play out or not again. I just made that up
I don't think that's in the textbook, but yeah Firo still kind of bottoming
You can kind of look at the wave magic you say, okay
Here's our upper standard deviations on the long term. Here's where they have kind of started to settle out on the short term
So perhaps some kind of consolidation in there. I would say to watch for wherever this thing breaks
I would say that it's probably one break to one side of the other will happen
But hypothetically if Zano ends up in this zone, right break that resistance break that resistance
Break that resistance and then kind of like sits here for a second and consolidates
That's when you know the things about to go up, right?
So that's that's what you'd be looking for to really take along here
If you wanted to you could take a little bit of a long down there just to again small amounts
Not not big amounts and then just let it sit if there's a big crash coming in a general sense
Right, it's possible the bottom on this thing could fall out for a moment here in November December before coming to the upside
That'll be the case for like basically everything that we look at so
Yeah
Pirate chain, I think we talked about last week that's um this thing has this like this crazy
Oscillation going on here to the tune of about 20% I don't know what their liquidity looks like actually, you know
I'm gonna write I'm gonna write this down look at liquidity
for pirate
Because if it's very low liquidity, you wouldn't be able to really leverage this to any significant gains
But because this oscillations because it has these crazy wick oscillations
You could do like some simple math
It doesn't even have to be like the perfectly correct math
It could just be like pleb math and you could say okay, what's the average off oscillation?
What's the standard deviation?
Whatever like what's the the quartile or the 10% oscillation level and then buy and sell on these oscillations
Obviously you need a platform that can support whatever amount of money that you're using to do that with
But if you wanted to you could take advantage of pirate and and these oscillations here and make money on that because that's
That's a very very rapid oscillation that these are these are daily oscillations here
I mean daily wicks you could just like set an alert if you wanted to probably I would just set orders
maybe
And I always forget what it's called. What's that? What's that exchange that we use a lot that not we use not we but
Like the anarchist in Mexico. We're using it for a while to trade mineral. I always forget the name of it
Well, anyways, obviously, I don't really use it that much trade over remember trade over. Thank you. Thank you, sir
Love trade ogre. Oh really? Okay. Yeah
So I need to get on like trade ogre and and check the pirate volume there because there is money to be made on this chart
If someone wanted to do it someone I don't use it, but I love it just for
Okay, fair enough. Yeah, I kind of feel the same way like I don't really use it
I think I tried once and I was like wait my order is not filling. Oh, there's shit liquidity. Oh, okay
I get it. Maybe the liquidity is better now. I don't know
Let's see. I think we've got a if you want to put the the latest XMR chat we have green tree
Green tree who tipped point zero six five six seven one eight three eight oh two three XMR
He says thank you body last week. You mentioned privacy coins will get lots of attention after the next liquidity expansion
What was the reason you got cut from the stream early? Oh, yeah, man Mexican internet sometimes it just doesn't want to work
Yeah, so the the reason
That privacy coins I think are gonna get a lot more attention is simply because
After all the attacks that we've seen over the past year or so in terms of privacy
I mean they they hit tornado cash and then they hit the samurai guys and
All of the maximalists are kind of saying like oh wait like hmm
Maybe we were I shouldn't say all but a lot of the maximum was and I'm seeing this anecdotally in my own like
Acquaintances my own friends and on the social medias all but the most hard-headed degenerate scumbag moonboy cultist
Maximalists are now kind of like yeah, okay, Minero is Minero does seem kind of reasonable at this point and I
Know anecdotally what I saw in 2021 was very hardened against Minero. Everyone was like. Oh, they're just gonna de-list it
They're just gonna they didn't even say de-list they say ban
They're just gonna ban it and and and and it's gonna be illegal for you to use and it's never gonna go up in price
And so don't use it and and it's only for criminals
I saw all of that shit across like ubiquitously across most of social media
I don't see that anymore what I see is people that are actually like yeah, Minero's an honest and honest project Minero
Minero is a good project like I see positive vibes towards Minero. It's it's giving positive vibes
For Minero, so I know that's anecdotally, but you have to realize that
Anecdotal fallacy is kind of like it's a fallacy of a fallacy in a way like anecdotal
Experience using that to make decisions is not a fallacy as long as you understand the kind of statistical power that it has
And you can at least like kind of estimate
Estimate
How well you have a finger on the pulse of the thing that you're looking at like in a social particularly in this case in a
social sense
All right, I gotta I gotta tell this one because this one's pretty funny
I think maybe I've said this before but let me explain why anecdotal experience how powerful it can actually be
I have a friend a Russian friend and I was like yo like how many people
Like how many black people are there in Russia and she was like none like I said, okay
well
Through your entire life
How many black people in Russia have you ever seen and she was like I don't know like three and so
We did this. Okay. Well the population of Russia is a hundred thousand then I said, okay for a girl this age
How many people is she probably seen in her entire life?
You know in Russia and we did some basic quick math. I said, okay
Maybe there's about 50,000 black people in Russia and then it was like the answer was 40,000
I was like, holy shit like that's that's insanely close on the basis of one person's anecdotal experience
but when you understand
When you understand like the statistical limitation of the power like the statistical power that you have
Then you can actually use your anecdotal experience to make inferences
So that's a nice like little side thing right there on anecdotal fallacies
There's a side rant that has nothing to do with price today, but it's an interesting kind of like anecdote if you will
About about how to use that kind of thing. So to finish up with this answer
We just see broad positivity in in the cryptosphere for Monero that didn't exist in the last bull market
And and people are starting to realize how big the attack that the government has launched against us really is and they want to defend themselves
So it just it just spells like a much higher probability and chance of Monero pumping that and also the fractional reserve game that they played last year
Or last last cycle is really gonna be difficult for them to continue
They can probably probably still have some firepower like I said
It's still there depending on how compromised cracking might be that you know
They might still be able to do things but yeah, I mean just the totality of it
There's a good chance that we do we do very well with this next bull market. Okay continuing nice report Darrow Darrow price
Yeah, has taken a pullback for the last week. Maybe we'll go to the daily. You see Kevin's XMR chat
Kevin's oh
No, I did not thank you. Sorry
Okay, so Kevin
tipped
16 cents point zero zero one Monero does future trading futures trading of XMR on these exchanges still affect Monero prices
After delisting XMR
Let me think about this for a second
Is there going to be futures trading of XMR and these changes because Binance still allows some
Futures trading on XMR doesn't it? Okay? So clearly I don't know. I haven't checked. Let me let me make a note here to
Futures trading on delisted. I mean usually futures trading would imply the ability to settle in the asset itself
If you can't do that then it's really just a derivative contract
But futures trading on delisted exchanges. I'm gonna check that out because maybe that's there
But if they're doing futures trading, I would say
probably not
It seems like the only thing that they could be doing is derivatives trading which is settled completely outside of
You know of Monero itself, right? Like there's no there's no Monero deposited
You might deposit Bitcoin to make a bet on what the Monero price is going to do and use your Bitcoin or your tether as collateral
for the contract
But but the but you don't actually you'd never be able to settle in XMR
You'd never be able to put up XMR as the collateral for that trade and as such
It might do something like take away from the volume like people that want to swing trade Monero might go to those
Platforms to swing trade the derivatives contract, but because there's no real Monero involved there
I would think that it should have
The only impact that it would have is sort of secondary in the sense that those people aren't trading real Monero anymore
Whereas they might have comprised some kind of volume
Towards like a larger order book
So perhaps in one way you would say it might help volatility
To be lower because the swing traders the D gens have gone elsewhere to pure derivatives contracts at the same time though
That's less liquidity on the order book
And less liquidity implies more volatility. So
Probably there's some complex equation analysis that well, I just haven't done probably not going to do it
I couldn't even say that I'm smart enough to do it in the first place
Or that I would even have the proper information
To try and hazard such an analysis, but yeah, there's your answer there
Let's see Darrow. I don't know. I don't have anything to say about Darrow. Let's just not even cover it right now
Zcash. Hey Zcash made a little little come back here after it tagged these lower standard deviations has come back
15% wait wait the Zcash dip
Maybe this is just happenstance, but it looks like Zcash dipped with Monero when
When Kraken announced the delisting of Monero in the EU
But there was no announcement of delisting of Zcash in the EU
So, I don't know what's going on there, but okay Zcash. Yeah, I guess
Whatever, okay, so let's go to let's go to daddy. Let's go to daddy coin, which is not Tate coin, but Bitcoin obviously
Just joking. Okay, so we're still in this like boring broad broadening structure range, right?
We were still in this sort of like capping descending line
and I don't see any reason to think that this should be broken in
The immediate future here. I think that it makes sense for this to continue trading in this fashion
This is kind of resembling to what we saw in 2020 at the end of 2020 Bitcoin hadn't quite broken out yet
and
And Bitcoin was really just kind of capped for a period of time
In a narrow range until it finally broke out
so yeah, we're
It might be the case that Bitcoin is just not going to break this range until the next liquidity expansion event is upon us and again
I really am targeting November December for this thing to happen
You know, obviously
That's that's my best guess and it's a difficult thing
It's a it's a very very low probability thing to call a market crash like that's unless it's like incipients and happening
In the present moment or just you know, just getting started. It's pretty hard to predict a market crash
in
In the macro markets in the stock markets your probability of doing it's very low
nevertheless, I still think that
All of the indicators are there. It's a question of if not when at this point and so in my mind
I'm saying well the win should be here in the next couple months. I think that makes the most sense, but again guys, you know, I'm
I'm not
I'm not no strudamus. Okay. I'm not like like I don't know everything. Okay, so anyways
Yeah, Bitcoin is just consolidating here. Probably will continue to consolidate
It does look like it's like slightly on the positive end of the server
It almost looks like maybe maybe it wants to get up here if you see it doing that kind of that kind of
Trading and then it does that. Okay, then maybe it can come to the upside
But yeah, I don't have any opinions exactly how to trade Bitcoin right now and my personal opinion
That would be kind of no man's land like in terms of the way that I like to think about markets and trade and get into positions
That's a no man's land position for me. I would just say as that's a no trade
I would look for something else something that has great a clarity. What the hell?
Okay, maybe has there been I maybe haven't been following closely enough, but
FTT just pumped like insanely that that is a lot. That's a seven standard deviation pump
for FTT
Maybe there's some resolution to the trial or like the speculation of a resolution people are gonna get paid back man
I don't know that's crazy. Oh crap. Let's go look at it. Let's go look at it actually
Which one do I want to destroy?
FTT USDT
How much did they gain? Ah, it's only a 2x. Okay, they've been really flat for the past like year
So I guess that would kind of explain it. Um, all right. Well, there's your shit coin for the boys and girls
FTT apparently is the coin to have bought into a shorting FTT boys
Yeah, maybe you could short it now. I'm not sure if shorting would be I wouldn't know
It's too late
Oh, it's it's not like hypothetically. Oh, yeah, I mean in terms of like the long term. Let's go back to if we're gonna buy
Yeah, no, I
Mean, yeah, if you if you were to take a short right there. What was that? Oh, that was 2022. Oh shit
You know what? I was short FTT there
That was that was one of the tokens I was short and I was playing with cross-margin
I got wiped out because dog did a 2x when Musk bought Twitter. I was so sad. I was like fuck
I was like that was kind of one of the last times I was playing with leverage
But I was I was like experimenting with cross-margin. I was short a whole bunch of stuff including dog
But then when dog pump 2x, it just wiped me out. It wiped out all of my short positions
So I was pretty sad at that moment because it wasn't a huge amount, but it wasn't an inconsequential amount
I would have made a pretty penny if I hadn't gotten wiped out and liquidated
on that one confession times
Confessions of body on the price report. Okay, you know what? Let's go to the Bitcoin
Bitcoin versus gold. So someone last week had asked me to do
The regression analysis not on the Bitcoin usd chart, but in the Bitcoin versus gold chart
And I got to tell you there's only two lines here. We've got the bottom and the top line, right?
We've only got the boundaries
This regression is not nearly as clean as the regression
Bitcoin versus the US dollar which is kind of surprising because you think that gold might introduce some kind of stability there
I don't know why that that it hasn't but at any rate. This is kind of what it looks like
You know, I trust this chart less than I trust the the US dollar regression analysis simply again because
It's this chart is not as clean. I had to do some more arbitrary stuff and like
I won't get into all of it
But like there were some things I had to do that you would consider to be somewhat dubious in a mathematical sense
So it's like you sort of border on on the edge of applying the tool incorrectly and in doing so in statistics
You might completely invalidate whatever thing you think that you have
That you have arrived at whatever conclusions you might have arrived at
Nevertheless with my disclaimer out of the way so that the financial bros don't sue me
For all my financial advice. Yeah, we are actually looking like we're approaching the the lower boundary here
So in a sense, it almost looks like it's about time to flip your gold into Bitcoin
But when it's time to flip your gold in the Bitcoin it that really means it's time to flip your gold into probably some other higher beta higher volatility
Higher risk higher reward cryptocurrency
In in a very slight way this kind of makes me think that
We again
This is like the slightest of point in favor of the crash of some kind of like liquidity intervention could be coming sooner rather than later
Because when the liquidity intervention kicks off Bitcoin is going to outperform gold gold has been outperforming Bitcoin here
For a while now for like most of the year
Gold will continue going up after the liquidity event intervention
But so will Bitcoin but the thing that gold does gold likes to start going up before the crisis happens
We've seen this classically now since 2008 gold will go up and then and then the rest of the markets will tend to follow
There will be a crash it will be limited for gold gold will continue going up
But then the rest of the markets will start catching up
So if we get a crash here this this chart is telling you that that yeah
It's it's about time to flip your gold into into crypto or into Bitcoin
So I think that's an interesting thing that's against not totally not as totally airtight of a statistical case that I would like it to be
But but perhaps a signal perhaps useful. So yeah, that's Bitcoin versus gold on their aggression analysis
With that, let's go ahead and take a look at the macro
I think we're starting to get long in the tooth here on this report
So we'll try and power speed through the macro stuff
Gold as we talked about has now touching that that resistance line
This is completely expected for it to have a little bit of resistance here
Given that given the how long this chart pattern is again going back to 1980 with the first gold blowoff
After Nixon protected us against the speculators
Which is what he told us he was doing where they allowed gold to float where they depict gold from the US dollar completely
Still this chart
We're gonna go we are in a bullish gold scenario here
Technically speaking it could take until the end of the decade for this chart pattern to break
It probably won't take that long given that that the next liquidity expansion is probably upon us
This thing is gonna eventually break probably
Find some resistance find some support and then maybe go to the upside or maybe it just doesn't even care
Maybe just breaks it who knows whatever
Yeah, so the theme with the macro for this week is that
Hold on to your crash thesis. It's not quite yet, right? That's that's kind of the idea of what I saw this week
So we had the reverse repos going towards the upside. That's people leaving risk going into the safety of putting their money with the Federal Reserve
Yes, yes, I know ha ha the safety of bonds
Please please a kid
But in the traditional perspective and in very real perspective being in a yielding in a bond that yields five percent
Is better than being in a crash and a crash scenario in the stock market, right?
And the government's good for it. They're just gonna print the money to pay the bond anyways
So it's like in a way it is kind of safe
It's a safety play
But so people had done the safety play like the big money had done the safety play for a period of time
And this was actually a strong movement, but that came back down this week
So it's like, okay, that is that is probably money that left safety and went to risk, right?
So went to the stock market effectively
Obviously not crypto descriptive didn't really pump I would also hazard to say that
There is a broadening structure now happening on the reverse repos and that implies uncertainty and ever
Increasing oscillation of volatility. I don't know which way this is gonna go in a crash scenario
Probably this thing goes to the direction to the upside because people seek the safety of Federal Reserve
You get the overnight rate federal funds rate for doing that
Yeah, so that's basically a broadening structure. I'm not really convinced how much
Technical analysis is
Valid on this particular chart, but I think there's probably some validity to it
So yeah, this might increase this broadening megaphone pattern here might indicate some kind of uncertainty in the market in general
Let's see here Dixie so the dollar index interestingly enough the dollar index came back
Just ticked up a little bit, but nothing crazy
Which is the fact that gold actually held a stable price, right gold held
Basically kept it was flat throughout the week. It didn't really go down. It didn't go up much
Even though the dollar index pumped and usually these are anti correlated
So that's actually strength that gold is showing here the fact the dollar index went up
But gold held its own that that that kind of implies a kind of strength that the gold performed with there
And then bonds. So the other thing too is that is that bonds?
The rate bond rates actually yields went up a little bit which indicates people leaving bonds slightly and going into risk assets, right?
Because rates 10 bond rates tend to go up as people sell the bonds
So yeah, the rates going up means that people were probably leaving a little bit bonds to go into risk in terms of the inversion
We still are
That one of our measurements here went down a little bit one of our measurements went up
So overall that was flat and then we had also talked about oil
Previously we said hey it fell out of its trend. It actually got back into its trend as of this past week
That was a big bump on the oil price. So again, it's kind of like the macro saying yeah
Not quite yet like okay the signs are there, but but maybe we're not quite ready to crash just yet
But that's you know, that's just one week of of new data
So we got to see how things unfold who knows what kind of shenanigans might be going into the election
And what kinds of things like they might get kind of bullshit that might try to get pulled or whatever right like who knows
Stock markets the S&P put on I wouldn't say a new all-time high
But I mean closing close the week at its all-time highs effectively
NASDAQ still up but still kind of underperforming the S&P overall
So you know one thing also again
The the unemployment we remember we talked about the unemployment that once it's passed a certain point
It it tends to spike up and that is like and that's it right like that's the recession. That's the that's the crash
Right now. We've actually had one two months
So we've had the past two months where the unemployment actually came down. So unemployment is not ticking up anymore and perhaps
You know, perhaps the market isn't totally sure yet. Hey, this thing's gonna crash. Oh, and also by the way remember guys
remember that
That we don't we don't necessarily
We don't necessarily know exactly like when this is gonna happen, right? Again, I'm speculating
Okay, so another thing that slightly bothers me about the unemployment chart is that in almost all cases when it was time for the crash to happen
So counter counter thesis time when it was time for the crash to happen. We didn't see really any major pullback
We didn't see a big pullback of the unemployment. It just continued spiking may be like right here just a little bit
But that was one two months wait hang on one two three months where it pulled back for a period of time
So if the next unemployment numbers continue to drop or stay flat, you know, that's maybe you know
I'll have to I'll have to note that as a counterpoint to my thesis here of crash sooner than later
Okay, with that, I don't think we have much else to talk about here mineral transactions still 25,000 looks like our little bump up here
Above 30 that was just a temporary for a and now we're back down to our stable transaction levels
Which appears to be 25,000
And I'll check the chats make sure I haven't missed anybody
No, okay crash to the upside oh
Yeah, okay, so fairly fairly reasonable investor on YouTube says crash to the upside question mark
Yeah, I mean
Don't forget that in the last in 2019 the markets did massively pump before the the medical intervention happened
In 2020 March of 2020
Markets did just smash to the upside, right?
So you have to keep that in mind because it is possible that you could be sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash
Even as the market pumps and then if and if the dip doesn't happen, right?
If you're waiting for the dip and the dip never comes then like you've just you just lost out
Which is why I'm like, okay have something in the markets, but also have some cash on hand have a strategy be prepared
And yeah with that guys, I'm gonna hand it back to do everything right
Yeah, just make no mistakes and you'll you'll win
There's actually a lot of truth to that though like in and almost any sport and anything you do
Like if you're new at something the first thing to do is to stop making mistakes or make fewer mistakes
Like in the winter hitting, you know smashing the the best shot throwing the perfect punch
Yeah, I mean definitely you should be aiming for that
But the first thing is fix your mistakes and that will that will yield you far better gains in any endeavor that you do
Before necessarily trying to you know to hit all the winners
Life advice with Baudi and I just don't make mistakes
All right, man amazing as always, thank you. Thank you
Thank you for that that being that beacon of
Guidance during these tumultuous times as always body
For steering us through these these hard times in the narrow land
Yeah, anybody that's that's concerned about these things. Yeah, you didn't know what you signed up for guys
I mean when narrow is is not welcomed on centralized exchanges and
There are arguments for why it is better off that way. So
It's awesome about how naive I was when I got into Monero and started like participating in the community
I don't know. This is back in 2018. I guess 2019
Yeah, I mean I even back then I didn't even have my bearings that well on on markets
Like I mean I had like the fuzzy idea of the beginnings, you know
What would sort of become the broad headline structure of how I see markets?
But I didn't I had no idea that we were in in store for this kind of battle for all the stuff
That was that was gonna happen with Monero with all these two listings and you know
The fractional reserve and I had no idea that the cryptocurrency space was
So that there were so many nefarious players behind the scenes screwing with with price and screwing with everything
But you live you learn
So naive you were so naive
Yeah, I think I think it's been a shock for all of us
But you know from the get-go, right? This this thing was always meant to be adversarial versus the state. So
For for a crypto to function, we knew that there had to be a
Major battle but that would that would be taking place at some point
It's funny Monero was so good that in a way it kind of forced us all to walk the walk
We didn't like we like we talked about it
But I don't think we expected that like that was that this was gonna be the path and then Monero was like
It was so good that we said well
It sort of forced us to to bring our actions and our thinking into alignment with
Know with what it was
But don't take that to mean I'm saying Monero's a deity guys, please no maximalism. We're not evangelists
Although
You say you're like hey spread the word and like yeah, we're not evangelists
That's kind of the problem, right like we saw the maximalist stuff and now we're like no
No, I'm not an evangelist, but maybe we got a
Little bit more on the marketing side
Yeah, I don't think there's anything wrong with that, you know, you obviously it depends how you're marketing
We just want people to know this utility exists the option exists Monero's digital cash. I
Just want they can pump my bags
Yeah, we're being brutally honest about it. Yeah come pump our bags