WEBVTT 00:07.500 --> 00:10.820 The Monero Topia price report segment is sponsored by 00:11.540 --> 00:16.540 ExoLix a privacy focused non custodial instant crypto exchange 00:17.640 --> 00:25.080 Go to exo list comm to enjoy secure and completely anonymous swaps with no KYC or sign up 00:25.080 --> 00:31.500 Swap between Monero and 2000 plus assets at the most competitive rates and with no limits 00:32.220 --> 00:36.560 ExoLix comm your fast and secure way to privacy. Hey guys 00:37.500 --> 00:38.840 Hey, buddy, what's going on man? 00:40.520 --> 00:43.620 I'll just um doing good man doing good. I 00:43.620 --> 00:45.160 Gotta say I guess I have to start out 00:45.840 --> 00:51.220 Bro, I did warn you. I said I said that these guys have tricks up their sleeve 00:51.220 --> 00:55.280 I you know, I noted that they they still have firepower to delist 00:55.900 --> 01:01.680 You know, I said hey, this is kind of like this is the top of our trend for the past like three years 01:02.620 --> 01:08.320 There's a possibility that you know that something could happen like expect that they've still got tricks up their sleeve, so 01:09.200 --> 01:13.980 But no, I mean, maybe I could have been I wasn't quite Nostradamus enough 01:14.820 --> 01:19.920 For for myself for my fans. I guess I have to issue an a formal apology 01:20.540 --> 01:25.720 For for not knowing that it was cracking that was gonna do list across the EU. I 01:25.720 --> 01:27.720 Apologize. I'm sorry. I'll try to do better 01:28.480 --> 01:35.400 Yeah, you weren't surveilling the Monero blockchain to see to see see the Monero moving to crack in and being sold and whatnot 01:35.400 --> 01:37.480 You weren't you're not capable of that 01:38.060 --> 01:40.160 Maybe that's what those transaction counts 01:40.760 --> 01:47.000 Extra transaction counts were like somebody new right? I wonder who's selling right who who are the assholes who are selling? 01:47.200 --> 01:49.620 Like how many how many inside how many people you think new 01:50.720 --> 01:52.860 Right. Yeah, it's the word really 01:53.600 --> 01:56.460 Yeah, somebody like somebody new some insiders now 01:56.460 --> 01:59.500 I think I actually I wonder 02:00.500 --> 02:05.400 these guys the best way for them to cap the prices for them to get as much Monero as possible and 02:05.400 --> 02:09.120 Probably at this point the best way for them to get as much Monero as possible 02:09.120 --> 02:16.720 In addition to maybe trying to mine some of it, you know, maybe there's some like deal with bit main or nice hash or whoever 02:17.640 --> 02:23.440 But then you know, like they could probably use these events and these things that they know about ahead of time 02:23.440 --> 02:29.000 Yeah, so they can sell high and then they know that people are gonna swing trade and then buy low 02:29.540 --> 02:35.020 And they can see all the inflows right like in terms of you know as far as crack in and other 02:35.020 --> 02:39.080 Exchanges and these you know the insta swap exchanges they can 02:39.720 --> 02:47.500 Assuming that they they are in partnership or that maybe chain analysis as at least buying the information from these exchanges 02:47.500 --> 02:50.800 They can see in flows. They know when when the uptick begins 02:50.800 --> 02:58.680 They know when the volume starts to increase when when the bottom is near. So, I mean, they've got the tools to time this thing 02:58.680 --> 03:04.920 So in other words, like they probably know that their ability to limit a Monero's price is coming to an end 03:04.920 --> 03:08.000 And so they need to accumulate as much as possible until that time 03:09.540 --> 03:13.020 And you know, they'll do the same thing like it's it's the same thing with gold, right? 03:13.120 --> 03:17.860 Like they have a there's a limited ability that they have to suppress the gold price 03:17.860 --> 03:24.060 And so, you know, they've got backup plan B plan C for when it's time for the breakout to happen 03:25.440 --> 03:30.140 Yeah, I mean how many more hammers can drop right? What do we have left? Well, we have crack in us 03:30.140 --> 03:36.740 That would be like that would be like the final the final leg, right after that anything else would be insignificant. Oh, yeah 03:36.740 --> 03:37.080 Yeah 03:38.320 --> 03:40.000 Right. Well, that's for sure 03:40.720 --> 03:43.620 Yeah, that's um that would surprise me a little bit 03:43.620 --> 03:50.160 I feel I would like to think that Kraken would push back at the same time Jay Powell Jesse Powell not 03:51.140 --> 03:52.800 Not Jerome Powell 03:53.340 --> 03:58.700 Jay Powell of Kraken. He stepped down as the CEO in 2022 like September 2022 03:59.380 --> 04:06.060 So, um, he's still on the he's still the chairman of the board. So, you know, there's still like maybe a positive influence there 04:06.660 --> 04:12.460 But the FBI also rated his home in in 2023 and they said it was unrelated to crypto 04:12.460 --> 04:18.360 They said that he hacked some I don't know some art people or something like he he hacked some art 04:18.360 --> 04:23.440 People and tried to do something allegedly so they raided his home. It's like get the fuck out of here 04:23.440 --> 04:24.920 That's that is no, no 04:24.920 --> 04:30.840 You just wanted an excuse to go raid his home and see if you could find any possible little thing that you could 04:31.300 --> 04:35.360 To the I didn't even know when did this happen? When does his home get rated? This is 04:36.020 --> 04:40.400 2023, you know, the New York Times reported it that I think it was like July 2023 04:41.040 --> 04:44.420 Jesus, they were accusing him of being involved in 04:45.440 --> 04:51.300 Some what was it some something like a hack against art people or something to do with art? 04:51.440 --> 04:57.520 I don't know man my details the details are fuzzy for me, but it was allegedly completely unrelated to crypto 04:57.520 --> 04:59.700 But yeah, yeah, just like they found 04:59.700 --> 05:05.900 Just like they found child porn on on Cody Wilson's computer. It's like, okay. Yeah 05:05.900 --> 05:13.220 Yeah, showing people how to how to do these guns or whatever the 3d printed guns and how convenient 05:13.220 --> 05:20.440 It's like it's just there. I know it's it's it's terrifying right there. They just do that to frickin anyone. I mean it's 05:22.120 --> 05:25.880 Jesus Christ guys, that's what we just need. We need a lot more of us, right? 05:26.060 --> 05:30.300 It's it's hard for them to do it to a lot of people they could take out one or two 05:31.200 --> 05:35.740 But as we build momentum, it's gonna be it's gonna be very difficult for them to stop 05:35.900 --> 05:41.720 All of us they can't stop us all the area 51 meme was just like totally wasted on aliens 05:41.720 --> 05:45.080 There's like so many there's a dozen other things we could use this for 05:46.840 --> 05:52.020 But yeah, that was a week what what other hammers can drop crack in us. What else we got I 05:53.980 --> 05:57.060 Guess they could maybe start banning it 05:57.860 --> 06:04.520 For corporate usage in general, you know, like I think it's it's illegal to use in is it 06:06.520 --> 06:12.420 Dubai it's it's a pan and Dubai. Maybe yeah, Japan too. I think I don't think it's illegal for like 06:12.420 --> 06:13.980 Individuals to use it still 06:14.540 --> 06:18.300 Dubai it might be illegal for individuals to use it. I'm not totally sure on that one 06:18.300 --> 06:22.780 But like corporations in Dubai are not allowed to use Monero from my understanding at this point 06:25.840 --> 06:29.980 Yeah, so just just making it illegal would be the next the next route 06:31.260 --> 06:37.440 Yeah, well, it's gonna be harder in the states, but you know, we've kind of seen the breakdown of the rule of law here as well 06:39.160 --> 06:48.820 Yeah, I mean the good thing is this is all happening at a time when we're transitioning towards not needing centralized exchanges at all 06:48.820 --> 06:49.580 We have 06:50.460 --> 06:57.840 Havino, which is starting to grow and gain gain some traction. We have Sarai decks. That's right around right around the corner 06:58.880 --> 07:06.320 And there, you know that that promises to really be a fluid way to go in and out of Monero and other cryptos without KYC 07:06.320 --> 07:09.700 AML and without having to go through like an exchange process 07:11.540 --> 07:16.740 So that's that's gonna be quite promising and it couldn't come at a better time 07:16.740 --> 07:20.400 We have basic swap you had them on the show not as not a 07:20.400 --> 07:27.400 Not completely there yet in terms of being super super easy to use but making a lot of headway and growing 07:27.400 --> 07:31.140 And purely peer-to-peer based on atomic swaps 07:31.900 --> 07:35.280 Completely unstoppable. It's people just running their own software 07:36.220 --> 07:38.360 so we have these solutions and 07:39.220 --> 07:41.540 They all are growing in 07:41.540 --> 07:49.300 Momentum they're growing in their their usability and they're growing in the amount of users that are using them. So 07:50.580 --> 07:53.060 Monero appears to be as unstoppable as ever 07:54.240 --> 07:57.120 You know, I was um, I was looking at 07:58.480 --> 07:58.960 Trocador 07:59.800 --> 08:05.240 The other day and it was like all of the options for tour have gone away 08:05.240 --> 08:09.500 There's literally one option now that you can do a Monero swap via tour 08:09.500 --> 08:12.280 Yeah, I thought that was really weird like like everyone 08:12.920 --> 08:17.100 Including Exile X you can't yeah, they won't they won't do a swap over tour now 08:17.840 --> 08:19.160 Really? Yeah 08:19.740 --> 08:24.300 Yeah, so I guess you have to make sure you have to go you have to exit tour to a VPN 08:24.960 --> 08:31.380 To mask your tour usage if you want to use these so the only the only tour up the only instant swap off 08:31.380 --> 08:34.120 Still offering tour access is what? 08:35.060 --> 08:40.900 Oh, I don't remember. Let me go to Chocador. Well Chocador itself. You could access by a tour, right? 08:41.240 --> 08:44.360 Yeah, you can get you can access Chocador by tour, but you can't 08:45.280 --> 08:49.060 But like once you try to make the swap and you see the listing 08:50.420 --> 08:54.300 You you can't you can't actually like none of that none of the offering 08:55.880 --> 08:59.220 So what you get downgraded to the clear net address 09:01.020 --> 09:04.940 Yeah, well, it's not that you get downgraded. It's just like they're grayed out 09:04.940 --> 09:10.160 It's like hey, you could use this but you're on tour right now. So you can use this this this or this option 09:10.160 --> 09:13.060 specifically excluded Chocador from 09:13.780 --> 09:14.220 allowing 09:15.080 --> 09:19.440 Anyone to make a trade through their tour their onion even though it's going through them 09:21.220 --> 09:24.040 Yeah, yeah, exactly. I see they've like opted out essentially 09:24.740 --> 09:28.440 Let me see. Let me just put in like a trade. Maybe I can show you guys 09:29.520 --> 09:31.300 Oh wait, I've got to get to the tour 09:33.200 --> 09:36.500 Yeah, I didn't plan on showing that so let's 09:37.360 --> 09:38.560 Bear if you need me to 09:40.740 --> 09:41.220 I 09:41.220 --> 09:43.340 Surprise they don't have their there don't have their onion 09:46.460 --> 09:51.440 Header because of their onion address doesn't show up if I just go to Chocador app doesn't request 09:52.700 --> 09:55.000 Sam but Bent is referring to 09:55.000 --> 10:01.680 Banning Monero making it illegal will increase the value just like drugs or anything else. Yeah, that's that sounds nice 10:01.680 --> 10:06.480 But that's I don't I don't I actually don't agree with that. I mean, maybe maybe a little bit 10:08.100 --> 10:13.500 It's just that like the problem is that people are addicted to drugs people fucking love drugs 10:14.080 --> 10:20.120 Like who doesn't like drugs like very few people don't at least like some drug even if it's just coffee, bro 10:20.640 --> 10:25.440 So the problem is that like drugs market themselves, right? People have like this demand for drugs 10:25.440 --> 10:33.020 And so you make them illegal and you know people still but but they use Monero as a tool to obtain them 10:33.020 --> 10:34.620 in many ways, so 10:35.680 --> 10:43.380 If you know that the desire to use Monero will still exist right the utility even if it's like that 10:44.220 --> 10:49.400 Yeah, I mean that's there's no truth. No, there's really no other way to run a dark market without Monero right now 10:49.400 --> 10:49.800 I mean 10:50.680 --> 10:52.620 Unless you want to really take a high risk 10:53.460 --> 10:57.420 so not you know, I'm not saying yes, that's right or wrong but 10:57.920 --> 11:01.260 Monero is the best tool for it and there's definitely a need and people are gonna 11:02.360 --> 11:05.740 People are gonna use it for that purpose that that would be my take on that 11:05.740 --> 11:10.200 What what what is the price need to be for it to sustain that market? I? 11:10.260 --> 11:11.480 Guess you can do the math on that 11:12.100 --> 11:17.180 Onboard users tip 25 cents tucks. I helped an Uber driver set up a Monero comma wall in an iOS 11:17.180 --> 11:21.880 I wasn't able to scan his QR code. I think because his phone was set to dark background 11:21.880 --> 11:28.520 I've had these issues before don't know a wallet version, but what have been current iOS version as of 11:28.520 --> 11:31.080 Port the bogus just use your feedback 11:33.060 --> 11:35.380 Yeah, I'm not sure why 11:36.340 --> 11:39.960 Dark mode would have prevented to the cure cook me scannable 11:40.540 --> 11:43.680 On iOS because we don't really do anything based on the OS 11:44.940 --> 11:47.240 Theme at all. So that's something 11:48.500 --> 11:51.100 I'll see if there's a ticket open that internally already 11:51.100 --> 11:52.400 It's interesting 11:56.020 --> 11:56.620 I 11:56.620 --> 12:03.980 23 hold on body making Monero legal just push everyone to use it by tour instead of clear net it can't be stopped 12:03.980 --> 12:09.600 Anyway, yeah, I agree. So here's a body was talking about as you can see we've got three options here 12:09.600 --> 12:11.260 Exilex we like Exilex 12:11.820 --> 12:14.760 Alpha cash and wizard swap wizard swap is very based 12:15.280 --> 12:18.300 Three options everything else. They do not allow 12:18.300 --> 12:22.300 Tor I to P trades to happen. So out of these one 12:22.300 --> 12:28.040 Bump your bump your amount bump it to like something past 10,000 and see if that changes things 12:28.880 --> 12:34.880 It's like point to VTC. Yeah. Oh, so let me change right here. It's edit. There we go 12:34.880 --> 12:43.070 Are you supposed to screencast with tour? 12:44.370 --> 12:45.450 I'm just playing 12:47.950 --> 12:50.370 Bro, it's ruined. Oh 12:50.370 --> 12:52.510 No, they can see the size of my browser window 12:53.190 --> 12:53.630 Yeah 12:54.450 --> 13:00.730 As we speak the feds watching this show or like aha look at the look at the resolution on it 13:00.730 --> 13:05.130 I probably do you have a slightly custom fingerprint though? Because as you can see I have you block a bit more than oh 13:06.850 --> 13:08.010 Snap yeah, actually 13:09.550 --> 13:16.150 You know, I I'm not gonna lie sometimes I change the resolution of the browser like I'll I'll make the screen bigger smaller 13:16.150 --> 13:16.650 It's like 13:17.370 --> 13:21.690 Come on. Yeah, are you gonna find me that way? I don't probably not still got three options 13:21.690 --> 13:25.730 Still okay, okay, and this is maybe it just happened to be 13:28.050 --> 13:30.010 Yeah, okay, so I am seeing Xlix on here 13:30.750 --> 13:35.010 The other day I was looking at it and it was I don't remember which one was available 13:35.010 --> 13:39.290 But there was only one and I was like wait Xlix is is is not on there 13:39.910 --> 13:40.350 like 13:42.030 --> 13:44.550 Not many options, but there are a few still 13:45.030 --> 13:50.210 Yeah, there's definitely fewer you access you're accessing it by a tour right now talks or sign 13:50.210 --> 13:54.750 This is correct. You can see the onion link at the top of his other webpage 13:58.290 --> 14:00.110 Very cool very cool very cool 14:00.690 --> 14:06.870 All right, so body just spread in false fake news man body's trying to drive down the price of an era 14:06.870 --> 14:09.090 I was spreading my truth, bro 14:09.870 --> 14:11.530 Truth is I see it 14:11.530 --> 14:12.170 Or at least 14:13.950 --> 14:17.090 And now he's trying to crash an era I 14:18.170 --> 14:21.570 Was the Fed boy that that was selling down price at the top 14:23.590 --> 14:27.570 I will give us you I mean, well, I don't even know what's that has it since bounce back up 14:27.570 --> 14:34.090 I haven't really been following it closely. I would let it are we anywhere near my 202 number for Minerotopia in one month 14:34.090 --> 14:36.450 I mean define it back 14:38.370 --> 14:40.970 Where we're you know, we're coming back we've had a bounce back 14:41.530 --> 14:47.870 You can see here. We have the so all of this all of this junk right here one two three four five looks like five or six days 14:48.530 --> 14:50.890 Almost a week there that things were just crashing 14:54.510 --> 14:58.830 When is the actual delisting date? Oh 14:58.830 --> 15:02.010 One of it. Yeah. Yeah, so October 31st 15:02.010 --> 15:06.070 They're gonna halt all trading and deposits for people registered in the EU 15:06.710 --> 15:13.510 And they're gonna close any open orders and then December 31st is the withdrawal like deadline 15:13.510 --> 15:22.170 So get your get your Minerot off of Kraken before New Year's apparently if you're in the any European Economic Region 15:23.090 --> 15:25.190 Yeah, yeah only for EU people I 15:26.150 --> 15:28.950 Mean like you said they're running out of firepower like Kraken is 15:29.510 --> 15:32.830 Kraken is the last major exchange after anyone else D list 15:32.830 --> 15:35.730 I it's hard to see that it's gonna matter hardly at all 15:36.070 --> 15:39.230 I mean I can at least appreciate Kraken because they've been 15:39.790 --> 15:47.570 They it seems like they have been somewhat dedicated at least compared to the others to trying to keep Minerot as long as possible 15:47.570 --> 15:48.590 Yeah 15:49.630 --> 15:54.770 Yeah, although, you know, you could say that's you could say that that's some you know 15:54.770 --> 15:56.310 That was just part of their long game, right? 15:56.390 --> 16:03.270 Like they saved Kraken for their for their back-end firepower after they exhausted finance and their other options 16:03.270 --> 16:03.970 You know now 16:03.970 --> 16:07.330 But at what point does the you know the 16:08.810 --> 16:11.850 Feds right the the states around the world 16:12.410 --> 16:18.550 That are essentially the ones behind these these listings that are putting the pressure on exchanges to delist 16:19.310 --> 16:21.210 At what point do they realize 16:21.890 --> 16:29.810 That the only way they can gain some insight into huge using Minerot and what they're using it for and gain any insight at all 16:29.810 --> 16:36.510 Is to have people come through centralized exchanges to obtain the Minerot like it's like why would you be taking this approach? 16:36.830 --> 16:38.010 they're literally 16:38.890 --> 16:41.950 pushing it off into the fringes and 16:41.950 --> 16:48.350 Putting fuel to the fire and allowing it to grow stronger and stronger as opposed to you know 16:48.350 --> 16:53.450 Trying to work with it which we've seen them do with Bitcoin in a very effective way 16:53.450 --> 16:59.410 Right to the point where we we say here that it's been co-opted, right? It's like fully integrated into 16:59.810 --> 17:03.530 The current the current fiat system. They're surveilling it 17:03.530 --> 17:06.590 No, they know everybody that's obtaining their Bitcoin. They can see it moving 17:06.590 --> 17:11.030 I mean if they want to gain any insight into how people are using Minerot 17:11.030 --> 17:15.730 They need to at least the only thing they could try to do is have them come through an exchange 17:16.310 --> 17:20.670 You know and they could try to figure out at least who the who the players are at least know who's using it 17:21.890 --> 17:23.370 Why would they give that away? 17:24.170 --> 17:26.450 It is a good point. I would say that 17:27.950 --> 17:31.990 I would say that that they might still have some reasonably good methods 17:31.990 --> 17:35.510 Maybe they have some reasonably good methods of determining who's using Minerot 17:35.510 --> 17:38.690 So for example, if you're running a node and you're not going over tour 17:39.910 --> 17:42.110 You know, maybe maybe they can figure that out 17:42.110 --> 17:47.450 But it seems like most people are gonna be using a VPN at least probably maybe most VPNs are honeypots 17:47.450 --> 17:53.470 So they're like confident that even if you're using a VPN, they can still see your Minerot usage your Minerot node 17:54.930 --> 17:59.330 Maybe they have other methods. I don't know. I mean even if it's not a honeypot 18:00.110 --> 18:00.590 It's 18:00.590 --> 18:06.710 Still like most people are going to probably be using VPN paths that exist only within their own country 18:06.710 --> 18:10.830 Right because it's faster and you know, like if you're using a VPN in the United States 18:11.570 --> 18:17.530 The the BPS companies and the data centers there. They're walking regardless of whether the VPN company is or not 18:18.610 --> 18:23.150 Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's that is a good point. The ISPs are like a huge weakness 18:23.470 --> 18:27.370 Especially with traffic analysis and that kind of thing and timing attacks 18:27.370 --> 18:33.670 Like who's to say that they haven't just like made very sophisticated timing analysis attacks and signatures 18:34.890 --> 18:39.650 Especially with growing bandwidth, like that could be like a negative aspect of growing bandwidth is that they have the overhead 18:39.650 --> 18:41.470 Like I'm just thinking out loud here 18:41.470 --> 18:44.830 So but it seems to me that with with large bandwidth 18:44.830 --> 18:49.130 You would have the overhead to introduce slight timing attacks so that you can you can still 18:49.750 --> 18:53.170 Correlate people's activity from one side of the VPN to the other 18:53.990 --> 18:58.030 Yeah, I do like what MoVet is doing with their day. I 18:58.030 --> 19:04.290 Think it's like D. A. I. T. As you know AI whatever they're they're basically padding packets 19:04.290 --> 19:07.870 So they all look the same and they're adding noise to 19:09.170 --> 19:12.550 Your your VPN connection to try and 19:13.710 --> 19:14.270 obscure 19:15.910 --> 19:20.990 The real data that you're you're actually using the real connections you're making to try and 19:22.030 --> 19:25.070 Help prevent timing attacks, but that's a hard thing to do 19:25.070 --> 19:30.170 Do you know if my VPN is doing the same thing? I'm not sure 19:33.130 --> 19:37.070 Let's see we have a we have XMR XMR chat from nihilist 19:37.750 --> 19:41.150 He tipped point zero zero eight manero he says that 19:41.150 --> 19:47.250 Making manero illegal will just push everyone to use it via tour instead of clear net. It can't be stopped anyways 19:49.370 --> 19:51.270 Yeah, I definitely hundred percent 19:52.710 --> 19:59.130 Or I to pee is anyone out there any chads out there using I to pee to run a manero no not I 20:02.530 --> 20:05.190 We have it integrated into no, no 20:07.650 --> 20:08.390 I never 20:09.530 --> 20:12.510 Like in in all my social media forays 20:12.510 --> 20:16.570 I've I don't think I've seen even maybe maybe one maybe two people 20:16.570 --> 20:19.930 That is that have talked about using manero over I to pee 20:20.650 --> 20:26.830 It's got to be somebody just for fun. I 20:26.830 --> 20:27.970 Guess not all right 20:29.410 --> 20:34.130 Yeah, so I guess we can just hop into the price here. So okay 20:34.130 --> 20:37.290 Yeah, we had the we had the cocking D listing we dropped there for a week 20:37.830 --> 20:43.670 Again, this is another reason why I like wave magic so much. She's smashed right into the lower standard deviation area 20:44.530 --> 20:49.650 It's also like, you know, it's also the same spot that we bottomed to the last times that we had the various 20:50.310 --> 20:53.690 Negative price events and then yeah, just came right back to the upside 20:55.070 --> 20:58.790 As of the past like a couple hours, we've had a little bit of a cool off here 20:58.790 --> 21:01.570 But but nothing nothing major so 21:02.590 --> 21:09.210 I would I would imagine that as long as there's no major downside forces for the broad crypto 21:10.310 --> 21:16.370 Markets that we should continue to make it to towards the upside. We're basically at 150, which is the stable coin price of Manero 21:17.290 --> 21:21.210 Occasionally we foray into 170 or maybe even 180 occasionally 21:22.110 --> 21:24.690 Yeah, I mean, obviously, I'd like to see this thing get up to the top side 21:24.690 --> 21:30.230 I honestly I don't care it can go down it can go back down and I can just buy more go up and I can spend more 21:30.710 --> 21:34.210 You know, whatever whatever Manero wants to do here is fine by me 21:34.850 --> 21:37.070 So, um, other than that 21:38.050 --> 21:41.510 Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm wondering I'm trying thinking to myself 21:41.510 --> 21:46.970 What's the next thing that they can do to really try and smash Manero's price to the downside apart from, you know 21:46.970 --> 21:48.090 A broader market crash 21:48.710 --> 21:53.070 I'm not seeing much guys like what are they gonna do they're gonna do list in the United States 21:54.490 --> 22:00.470 Maybe maybe maybe what they'll do is they'll find isolated states to then like trying to, you know 22:01.290 --> 22:04.710 Poke it crack in be like, okay. It's not in New York 22:04.710 --> 22:11.690 Let's delist it from California now, right? Like that would be my next guess like if you if I had to make my most educated 22:12.330 --> 22:18.550 Scientific wild ass guess I would say they they might start going after crack into delist in particular states 22:18.550 --> 22:22.590 Where they've got the political will to make that happen. So um 22:23.130 --> 22:27.770 You know, and then of course the first that the first one will be the most impactful because they'll be like, oh my god 22:27.770 --> 22:29.190 Now they're coming for the US 22:29.990 --> 22:33.030 So just keep that in the back of your mind and that could happen 22:34.790 --> 22:38.610 Let's see we have bounced back obviously bounced back a little bit here with 22:39.030 --> 22:44.510 Respect to Bitcoin in terms of the Manero versus Bitcoin price again, you know the same thing with wave magic here 22:44.510 --> 22:48.490 You've got this you form these these bands you form these lower standard deviations 22:48.490 --> 22:52.070 We didn't quite make it all the way down there. You probably can't see that 22:52.070 --> 22:56.730 So I'll draw this. This is the the moving average cluster and these are short-term moving averages, right? 22:56.850 --> 23:00.270 That the longer term ones are on the bigger chart up here, right? 23:00.390 --> 23:03.850 I think you guys can actually see that maybe let me zoom in a little bit here 23:04.810 --> 23:06.190 That might be easier to see 23:06.870 --> 23:12.630 And also, you know, if you're on YouTube you go to the 1080p charts and you'll be able to see the lines much more clearly 23:13.330 --> 23:19.430 Yeah, so that's again why I like the standard deviations why I like this wave magic so much because it really 23:19.430 --> 23:20.950 It really does help you 23:21.490 --> 23:27.910 To visualize where some key levels are it's not perfect and it's despite it's it's nomenclature 23:27.910 --> 23:29.310 It's not exactly magic 23:29.830 --> 23:34.590 But you know, it's the closest thing we got so basically Manero found support here at the moving average cluster 23:35.550 --> 23:38.210 Relative to Bitcoin and we're making a bit of a bounce here 23:38.750 --> 23:44.730 In terms of wave magic, I would probably be targeting this area for like if you're a trader, you know, if you're flipping 23:45.530 --> 23:49.970 Like let's suppose you're you're flipping between Manero and Bitcoin on a regular basis 23:51.370 --> 23:55.050 On on simple swap or some of these other decentralized exchanges 23:55.610 --> 23:57.830 Is this one simple swapping it's a simple swap 23:58.470 --> 24:02.170 Anyways, yeah, I would be looking to hit the standard deviation clusters in blue 24:02.170 --> 24:04.350 And you know, then you might flip back into Bitcoin 24:04.350 --> 24:07.010 I would never ever recommend flipping back into Bitcoin 24:07.010 --> 24:10.830 But if you are so inclined that might be that you would try and do it 24:11.930 --> 24:13.830 Through the delisting 24:13.830 --> 24:19.450 Nonsense basically what's interesting is that nothing changed with the divergences relative tracking 24:19.450 --> 24:21.730 Everyone basically kept their price 24:22.550 --> 24:26.750 Relatively close to cracking polo is still as usual schizophrenic, you know 24:26.750 --> 24:29.770 Just oscillating up and down to the tune of 1% 24:30.550 --> 24:37.170 Around the cracking price, but they probably don't have any Manero anyways, and if they do it's probably it's probably just like bought trading and nonsense 24:37.170 --> 24:39.770 So yeah, they don't really matter that much 24:40.750 --> 24:46.670 Maybe Q coin actually kind of matters. Yeah, actually, you know, let me let me walk a step back here 24:47.160 --> 24:49.050 Q coin and Mexi 24:49.650 --> 24:52.650 Hypothetically if they were gonna try and delist Manero from further exchanges 24:52.650 --> 24:58.990 Those might be somewhat impactful ones because I think that those guys actually do some Manero trading like people actually 24:58.990 --> 25:02.570 I think do trade a little bit on those exchanges. They do have some volume 25:03.210 --> 25:07.410 Especially when Binance shut down, I think Q coin took over a lot of that a lot of that volume 25:08.370 --> 25:11.110 So yeah, I mean that could be a case. I think Q coin is being 25:11.650 --> 25:14.670 Currently attacked by the Fed bullies. I don't know what the latest is on that 25:14.670 --> 25:17.590 That was like maybe almost a year ago that that was happening. So 25:19.690 --> 25:26.390 Manero versus gold continues to be sort of in the on the downside of this trend hanging out largely in between the 25:26.390 --> 25:31.370 Long-term standard deviation lower standard deviation and then the shorter term standard deviation 25:31.370 --> 25:35.710 So that's where it seems to be hanging out gold this week has been largely flat 25:35.710 --> 25:41.390 In fact for the most part markets were relatively flat this week. We'll talk about the macro in a bit 25:42.730 --> 25:44.130 Effectively kind of just neutral 25:45.170 --> 25:48.690 Markets showing a little bit of strength like hey, we're not quite ready to crash yet 25:50.110 --> 25:51.850 Let's see check in the comments 25:52.990 --> 25:56.110 Jack needs to bring jack said need to bring back local Manero 25:56.110 --> 25:58.790 Yeah, it would be nice if local Manero came back 25:58.790 --> 26:04.170 But hey, maybe maybe it's good that they left because when local Manero was that easy for us 26:04.170 --> 26:06.950 We didn't actually do the more properly decentralized 26:08.130 --> 26:09.450 methods of trading right 26:10.270 --> 26:10.690 So 26:11.490 --> 26:15.590 Yeah, I don't know. It's too bad. There was a lot of trust there too with that platform in particular 26:16.510 --> 26:18.950 So, yeah, that's that's basically what the mineral price looks like 26:18.950 --> 26:20.950 Let's take a look at the dominance 26:20.950 --> 26:26.650 Manero dominance looks very similar to Manero versus Bitcoin for obvious reasons Bitcoin dominance has been doing pretty good 26:27.790 --> 26:34.550 Yeah, nothing to see here privacy coins in general. We'll start with Zano. They are still consolidating 26:35.390 --> 26:37.430 After their big run to the upside 26:38.090 --> 26:43.970 There's not a huge impetus at the moment. I think push things too much higher in a general sense 26:44.730 --> 26:46.170 for for the privacy coins 26:47.010 --> 26:49.510 You know, maybe the crack and be listing perhaps 26:49.510 --> 26:54.970 Right, perhaps that that could the reverse reaction from that on a medium term basis 26:54.970 --> 26:57.710 Perhaps that could be the impetus necessary for Zano to go to the upside 26:57.710 --> 27:00.910 but at the moment, you know, this is still consolidation and 27:01.830 --> 27:04.790 I don't know. Let's draw some dubious lines here. Just just because 27:07.870 --> 27:10.050 Though maybe it could look something like that 27:10.050 --> 27:16.870 I mean hypothetically you could see this kind of consolidation pattern happening for the rest of the year on the basis of what we've now seen 27:17.630 --> 27:20.390 For I guess you would say for about a month here. So 27:21.170 --> 27:25.410 Yeah, it would be hard to say I wouldn't be able to tell you that Zano is going to break out sooner or later 27:27.110 --> 27:30.610 But it is kind of a pendant formation that's that's starting to develop here 27:30.910 --> 27:34.930 So yeah patients if you're a Zano holder, I guess I would I would probably still have some patients 27:34.930 --> 27:39.990 This is the kind of like if you bought Zano if you smartly bought down here and you have gains 27:40.650 --> 27:43.090 One it's never wrong to take profit. This is true 27:43.090 --> 27:48.770 But two if you smartly didn't put a significant amount of your net worth in Zano 27:48.770 --> 27:53.210 Like if you if you fucking yoloed onto Zano, then you might take some profits right here 27:53.210 --> 27:56.710 You're up 3x, but if you just put a little bit of cash onto there said, hey, you know 27:56.710 --> 27:58.470 This is an outside player. Maybe it'll hit 27:59.070 --> 28:00.170 If I'm you 28:01.750 --> 28:04.110 I'm me. I'm leaving that in Zano 28:04.110 --> 28:10.170 You're just gonna let that sit for two years guys until one year two year whenever the top of the next blowoff is 28:10.170 --> 28:14.990 You're gonna let that shit sit there because you don't know if this thing can do another 10x, right? 28:15.090 --> 28:18.790 It could hypothetically do another 10x Zano is very low market cap 28:19.290 --> 28:22.850 So this thing could you know, I mean, I'm not saying I'm not predicting 10x, right? 28:22.850 --> 28:29.250 Like please I'm not predicting 100x, but it could stuff that happens, right and in Zano is an interesting project, right? 28:29.410 --> 28:33.470 So it's it's me and run by a guy that was one of the early guys in Monero 28:34.090 --> 28:36.370 He seems like a good dude. He seems like an honest dude 28:36.370 --> 28:42.150 He doesn't give any, you know red flags or Spidey Spidey since tinglies that he's you know in a farious whatever 28:42.650 --> 28:46.590 So the point is anyways guys if you want to make big life-changing gains 28:46.590 --> 28:49.250 You have to give yourself the opportunity to make those gains 28:49.250 --> 28:53.390 And that's why I say like put a small amount of your net worth onto a play like this because 28:53.870 --> 28:58.470 If this thing does do a 5x or 10x from here and you bought some small, you know 28:58.470 --> 29:02.090 You bought some down here. You really could be looking at significant cash for yourself 29:02.490 --> 29:06.350 And because you put a small amount of your net worth. It's like hey if I lose everything 29:06.350 --> 29:10.450 I'm still okay with it, right? That's powerful because it gives you the mindset that says hey 29:10.450 --> 29:12.350 I don't need to touch this. I'm just gonna let it ride whatever 29:13.030 --> 29:16.750 The biggest gains you're gonna make in a lot of cases are gonna be the stuff that you bought 29:16.750 --> 29:20.170 And then you just let it sit and then you woke up one day. You're like, oh wow, that's crazy 29:20.170 --> 29:20.970 I didn't expect that 29:21.470 --> 29:23.490 at least, you know, that's 29:23.490 --> 29:27.570 You know, it's kind of how it's happened for me from time to time. So 29:28.170 --> 29:36.490 Okay, Firo is still doing this probably bottoming pattern. I think we called this a double W bottoming pattern last week 29:37.330 --> 29:40.650 So I don't know if that will play out or not again. I just made that up 29:40.650 --> 29:45.270 I don't think that's in the textbook, but yeah Firo still kind of bottoming 29:46.250 --> 29:48.070 You can kind of look at the wave magic you say, okay 29:48.070 --> 29:53.570 Here's our upper standard deviations on the long term. Here's where they have kind of started to settle out on the short term 29:53.570 --> 29:59.310 So perhaps some kind of consolidation in there. I would say to watch for wherever this thing breaks 29:59.310 --> 30:03.570 I would say that it's probably one break to one side of the other will happen 30:05.010 --> 30:10.470 But hypothetically if Zano ends up in this zone, right break that resistance break that resistance 30:10.470 --> 30:15.590 Break that resistance and then kind of like sits here for a second and consolidates 30:15.590 --> 30:17.850 That's when you know the things about to go up, right? 30:17.910 --> 30:20.250 So that's that's what you'd be looking for to really take along here 30:20.250 --> 30:24.290 If you wanted to you could take a little bit of a long down there just to again small amounts 30:24.290 --> 30:30.050 Not not big amounts and then just let it sit if there's a big crash coming in a general sense 30:30.050 --> 30:35.650 Right, it's possible the bottom on this thing could fall out for a moment here in November December before coming to the upside 30:36.170 --> 30:38.970 That'll be the case for like basically everything that we look at so 30:40.110 --> 30:40.550 Yeah 30:41.630 --> 30:46.150 Pirate chain, I think we talked about last week that's um this thing has this like this crazy 30:46.150 --> 30:52.290 Oscillation going on here to the tune of about 20% I don't know what their liquidity looks like actually, you know 30:52.290 --> 30:55.130 I'm gonna write I'm gonna write this down look at liquidity 30:56.190 --> 30:56.990 for pirate 30:57.970 --> 31:02.190 Because if it's very low liquidity, you wouldn't be able to really leverage this to any significant gains 31:02.190 --> 31:06.950 But because this oscillations because it has these crazy wick oscillations 31:06.950 --> 31:09.110 You could do like some simple math 31:09.110 --> 31:11.410 It doesn't even have to be like the perfectly correct math 31:11.410 --> 31:15.650 It could just be like pleb math and you could say okay, what's the average off oscillation? 31:15.890 --> 31:16.850 What's the standard deviation? 31:17.150 --> 31:23.670 Whatever like what's the the quartile or the 10% oscillation level and then buy and sell on these oscillations 31:23.670 --> 31:28.570 Obviously you need a platform that can support whatever amount of money that you're using to do that with 31:29.430 --> 31:35.830 But if you wanted to you could take advantage of pirate and and these oscillations here and make money on that because that's 31:35.830 --> 31:39.530 That's a very very rapid oscillation that these are these are daily oscillations here 31:39.530 --> 31:44.670 I mean daily wicks you could just like set an alert if you wanted to probably I would just set orders 31:45.290 --> 31:45.670 maybe 31:45.670 --> 31:52.250 And I always forget what it's called. What's that? What's that exchange that we use a lot that not we use not we but 31:52.970 --> 31:58.210 Like the anarchist in Mexico. We're using it for a while to trade mineral. I always forget the name of it 31:58.210 --> 32:03.130 Well, anyways, obviously, I don't really use it that much trade over remember trade over. Thank you. Thank you, sir 32:03.130 --> 32:05.950 Love trade ogre. Oh really? Okay. Yeah 32:05.950 --> 32:11.410 So I need to get on like trade ogre and and check the pirate volume there because there is money to be made on this chart 32:11.410 --> 32:15.410 If someone wanted to do it someone I don't use it, but I love it just for 32:18.250 --> 32:22.310 Okay, fair enough. Yeah, I kind of feel the same way like I don't really use it 32:22.310 --> 32:26.430 I think I tried once and I was like wait my order is not filling. Oh, there's shit liquidity. Oh, okay 32:26.430 --> 32:29.910 I get it. Maybe the liquidity is better now. I don't know 32:30.970 --> 32:36.550 Let's see. I think we've got a if you want to put the the latest XMR chat we have green tree 32:37.170 --> 32:42.110 Green tree who tipped point zero six five six seven one eight three eight oh two three XMR 32:42.610 --> 32:47.510 He says thank you body last week. You mentioned privacy coins will get lots of attention after the next liquidity expansion 32:47.510 --> 32:54.450 What was the reason you got cut from the stream early? Oh, yeah, man Mexican internet sometimes it just doesn't want to work 32:55.750 --> 32:57.190 Yeah, so the the reason 32:57.850 --> 33:01.150 That privacy coins I think are gonna get a lot more attention is simply because 33:01.650 --> 33:06.230 After all the attacks that we've seen over the past year or so in terms of privacy 33:06.230 --> 33:10.010 I mean they they hit tornado cash and then they hit the samurai guys and 33:10.590 --> 33:13.710 All of the maximalists are kind of saying like oh wait like hmm 33:13.710 --> 33:18.710 Maybe we were I shouldn't say all but a lot of the maximum was and I'm seeing this anecdotally in my own like 33:18.710 --> 33:26.450 Acquaintances my own friends and on the social medias all but the most hard-headed degenerate scumbag moonboy cultist 33:26.450 --> 33:33.150 Maximalists are now kind of like yeah, okay, Minero is Minero does seem kind of reasonable at this point and I 33:34.350 --> 33:42.190 Know anecdotally what I saw in 2021 was very hardened against Minero. Everyone was like. Oh, they're just gonna de-list it 33:42.190 --> 33:44.210 They're just gonna they didn't even say de-list they say ban 33:44.210 --> 33:50.810 They're just gonna ban it and and and and it's gonna be illegal for you to use and it's never gonna go up in price 33:50.810 --> 33:53.410 And so don't use it and and it's only for criminals 33:53.410 --> 33:57.670 I saw all of that shit across like ubiquitously across most of social media 33:57.670 --> 34:03.790 I don't see that anymore what I see is people that are actually like yeah, Minero's an honest and honest project Minero 34:03.790 --> 34:09.770 Minero is a good project like I see positive vibes towards Minero. It's it's giving positive vibes 34:10.590 --> 34:15.570 For Minero, so I know that's anecdotally, but you have to realize that 34:16.610 --> 34:21.610 Anecdotal fallacy is kind of like it's a fallacy of a fallacy in a way like anecdotal 34:22.910 --> 34:28.690 Experience using that to make decisions is not a fallacy as long as you understand the kind of statistical power that it has 34:28.690 --> 34:31.830 And you can at least like kind of estimate 34:31.830 --> 34:32.470 Estimate 34:33.210 --> 34:39.090 How well you have a finger on the pulse of the thing that you're looking at like in a social particularly in this case in a 34:39.090 --> 34:39.650 social sense 34:41.730 --> 34:45.370 All right, I gotta I gotta tell this one because this one's pretty funny 34:46.090 --> 34:51.310 I think maybe I've said this before but let me explain why anecdotal experience how powerful it can actually be 34:51.310 --> 34:56.490 I have a friend a Russian friend and I was like yo like how many people 34:57.070 --> 35:01.610 Like how many black people are there in Russia and she was like none like I said, okay 35:01.610 --> 35:01.810 well 35:02.690 --> 35:03.970 Through your entire life 35:03.970 --> 35:08.830 How many black people in Russia have you ever seen and she was like I don't know like three and so 35:09.090 --> 35:14.210 We did this. Okay. Well the population of Russia is a hundred thousand then I said, okay for a girl this age 35:14.210 --> 35:16.790 How many people is she probably seen in her entire life? 35:17.310 --> 35:20.430 You know in Russia and we did some basic quick math. I said, okay 35:20.430 --> 35:24.490 Maybe there's about 50,000 black people in Russia and then it was like the answer was 40,000 35:24.490 --> 35:29.910 I was like, holy shit like that's that's insanely close on the basis of one person's anecdotal experience 35:29.910 --> 35:31.070 but when you understand 35:32.110 --> 35:37.690 When you understand like the statistical limitation of the power like the statistical power that you have 35:37.690 --> 35:40.650 Then you can actually use your anecdotal experience to make inferences 35:40.650 --> 35:44.150 So that's a nice like little side thing right there on anecdotal fallacies 35:44.150 --> 35:50.170 There's a side rant that has nothing to do with price today, but it's an interesting kind of like anecdote if you will 35:51.470 --> 35:55.370 About about how to use that kind of thing. So to finish up with this answer 35:55.930 --> 36:01.630 We just see broad positivity in in the cryptosphere for Monero that didn't exist in the last bull market 36:02.410 --> 36:09.590 And and people are starting to realize how big the attack that the government has launched against us really is and they want to defend themselves 36:09.590 --> 36:17.150 So it just it just spells like a much higher probability and chance of Monero pumping that and also the fractional reserve game that they played last year 36:17.150 --> 36:21.910 Or last last cycle is really gonna be difficult for them to continue 36:22.410 --> 36:25.030 They can probably probably still have some firepower like I said 36:25.030 --> 36:28.570 It's still there depending on how compromised cracking might be that you know 36:28.570 --> 36:31.310 They might still be able to do things but yeah, I mean just the totality of it 36:31.630 --> 36:38.270 There's a good chance that we do we do very well with this next bull market. Okay continuing nice report Darrow Darrow price 36:38.950 --> 36:44.430 Yeah, has taken a pullback for the last week. Maybe we'll go to the daily. You see Kevin's XMR chat 36:46.630 --> 36:47.590 Kevin's oh 36:47.590 --> 36:49.270 No, I did not thank you. Sorry 36:50.230 --> 36:51.270 Okay, so Kevin 36:52.290 --> 36:52.770 tipped 36:52.770 --> 37:00.650 16 cents point zero zero one Monero does future trading futures trading of XMR on these exchanges still affect Monero prices 37:01.250 --> 37:02.810 After delisting XMR 37:03.630 --> 37:05.250 Let me think about this for a second 37:07.690 --> 37:13.110 Is there going to be futures trading of XMR and these changes because Binance still allows some 37:13.790 --> 37:21.190 Futures trading on XMR doesn't it? Okay? So clearly I don't know. I haven't checked. Let me let me make a note here to 37:22.070 --> 37:30.130 Futures trading on delisted. I mean usually futures trading would imply the ability to settle in the asset itself 37:30.650 --> 37:33.370 If you can't do that then it's really just a derivative contract 37:34.050 --> 37:38.850 But futures trading on delisted exchanges. I'm gonna check that out because maybe that's there 37:39.530 --> 37:42.270 But if they're doing futures trading, I would say 37:42.970 --> 37:43.670 probably not 37:45.210 --> 37:51.610 It seems like the only thing that they could be doing is derivatives trading which is settled completely outside of 37:52.470 --> 37:56.770 You know of Monero itself, right? Like there's no there's no Monero deposited 37:56.770 --> 38:03.850 You might deposit Bitcoin to make a bet on what the Monero price is going to do and use your Bitcoin or your tether as collateral 38:04.390 --> 38:05.570 for the contract 38:06.250 --> 38:10.590 But but the but you don't actually you'd never be able to settle in XMR 38:10.590 --> 38:15.450 You'd never be able to put up XMR as the collateral for that trade and as such 38:15.450 --> 38:21.770 It might do something like take away from the volume like people that want to swing trade Monero might go to those 38:21.770 --> 38:26.990 Platforms to swing trade the derivatives contract, but because there's no real Monero involved there 38:26.990 --> 38:28.210 I would think that it should have 38:28.210 --> 38:34.670 The only impact that it would have is sort of secondary in the sense that those people aren't trading real Monero anymore 38:35.210 --> 38:38.210 Whereas they might have comprised some kind of volume 38:39.010 --> 38:40.930 Towards like a larger order book 38:41.990 --> 38:46.490 So perhaps in one way you would say it might help volatility 38:47.030 --> 38:54.330 To be lower because the swing traders the D gens have gone elsewhere to pure derivatives contracts at the same time though 38:54.330 --> 38:56.030 That's less liquidity on the order book 38:56.590 --> 38:59.290 And less liquidity implies more volatility. So 38:59.830 --> 39:04.770 Probably there's some complex equation analysis that well, I just haven't done probably not going to do it 39:05.290 --> 39:08.110 I couldn't even say that I'm smart enough to do it in the first place 39:08.110 --> 39:10.690 Or that I would even have the proper information 39:11.170 --> 39:15.430 To try and hazard such an analysis, but yeah, there's your answer there 39:16.490 --> 39:19.930 Let's see Darrow. I don't know. I don't have anything to say about Darrow. Let's just not even cover it right now 39:19.930 --> 39:26.650 Zcash. Hey Zcash made a little little come back here after it tagged these lower standard deviations has come back 39:26.650 --> 39:29.970 15% wait wait the Zcash dip 39:32.650 --> 39:36.950 Maybe this is just happenstance, but it looks like Zcash dipped with Monero when 39:37.530 --> 39:40.410 When Kraken announced the delisting of Monero in the EU 39:40.410 --> 39:44.330 But there was no announcement of delisting of Zcash in the EU 39:44.330 --> 39:48.670 So, I don't know what's going on there, but okay Zcash. Yeah, I guess 39:49.790 --> 39:56.350 Whatever, okay, so let's go to let's go to daddy. Let's go to daddy coin, which is not Tate coin, but Bitcoin obviously 39:57.310 --> 40:02.770 Just joking. Okay, so we're still in this like boring broad broadening structure range, right? 40:02.830 --> 40:04.970 We were still in this sort of like capping descending line 40:06.830 --> 40:09.690 and I don't see any reason to think that this should be broken in 40:10.370 --> 40:14.910 The immediate future here. I think that it makes sense for this to continue trading in this fashion 40:15.810 --> 40:22.350 This is kind of resembling to what we saw in 2020 at the end of 2020 Bitcoin hadn't quite broken out yet 40:23.590 --> 40:24.030 and 40:24.030 --> 40:27.010 And Bitcoin was really just kind of capped for a period of time 40:27.630 --> 40:29.930 In a narrow range until it finally broke out 40:30.550 --> 40:31.430 so yeah, we're 40:32.230 --> 40:38.970 It might be the case that Bitcoin is just not going to break this range until the next liquidity expansion event is upon us and again 40:39.690 --> 40:43.470 I really am targeting November December for this thing to happen 40:44.830 --> 40:46.110 You know, obviously 40:46.110 --> 40:49.350 That's that's my best guess and it's a difficult thing 40:49.350 --> 40:56.050 It's a it's a very very low probability thing to call a market crash like that's unless it's like incipients and happening 40:56.050 --> 41:01.190 In the present moment or just you know, just getting started. It's pretty hard to predict a market crash 41:01.750 --> 41:02.270 in 41:03.310 --> 41:06.970 In the macro markets in the stock markets your probability of doing it's very low 41:06.970 --> 41:09.050 nevertheless, I still think that 41:09.690 --> 41:14.110 All of the indicators are there. It's a question of if not when at this point and so in my mind 41:14.110 --> 41:21.390 I'm saying well the win should be here in the next couple months. I think that makes the most sense, but again guys, you know, I'm 41:21.870 --> 41:22.490 I'm not 41:24.510 --> 41:28.910 I'm not no strudamus. Okay. I'm not like like I don't know everything. Okay, so anyways 41:28.910 --> 41:32.310 Yeah, Bitcoin is just consolidating here. Probably will continue to consolidate 41:32.310 --> 41:35.550 It does look like it's like slightly on the positive end of the server 41:35.550 --> 41:41.130 It almost looks like maybe maybe it wants to get up here if you see it doing that kind of that kind of 41:41.530 --> 41:44.630 Trading and then it does that. Okay, then maybe it can come to the upside 41:46.350 --> 41:51.870 But yeah, I don't have any opinions exactly how to trade Bitcoin right now and my personal opinion 41:51.870 --> 41:57.410 That would be kind of no man's land like in terms of the way that I like to think about markets and trade and get into positions 41:57.850 --> 42:02.050 That's a no man's land position for me. I would just say as that's a no trade 42:02.050 --> 42:05.790 I would look for something else something that has great a clarity. What the hell? 42:06.550 --> 42:10.370 Okay, maybe has there been I maybe haven't been following closely enough, but 42:11.650 --> 42:16.750 FTT just pumped like insanely that that is a lot. That's a seven standard deviation pump 42:17.610 --> 42:18.430 for FTT 42:20.370 --> 42:25.870 Maybe there's some resolution to the trial or like the speculation of a resolution people are gonna get paid back man 42:25.870 --> 42:29.870 I don't know that's crazy. Oh crap. Let's go look at it. Let's go look at it actually 42:32.130 --> 42:33.710 Which one do I want to destroy? 42:36.090 --> 42:36.970 FTT USDT 42:38.450 --> 42:44.070 How much did they gain? Ah, it's only a 2x. Okay, they've been really flat for the past like year 42:44.070 --> 42:50.750 So I guess that would kind of explain it. Um, all right. Well, there's your shit coin for the boys and girls 42:50.750 --> 42:55.530 FTT apparently is the coin to have bought into a shorting FTT boys 42:56.950 --> 43:00.890 Yeah, maybe you could short it now. I'm not sure if shorting would be I wouldn't know 43:01.710 --> 43:02.370 It's too late 43:02.990 --> 43:09.050 Oh, it's it's not like hypothetically. Oh, yeah, I mean in terms of like the long term. Let's go back to if we're gonna buy 43:09.050 --> 43:10.950 Yeah, no, I 43:10.950 --> 43:15.890 Mean, yeah, if you if you were to take a short right there. What was that? Oh, that was 2022. Oh shit 43:15.890 --> 43:17.950 You know what? I was short FTT there 43:17.950 --> 43:21.510 That was that was one of the tokens I was short and I was playing with cross-margin 43:21.510 --> 43:26.330 I got wiped out because dog did a 2x when Musk bought Twitter. I was so sad. I was like fuck 43:27.250 --> 43:30.410 I was like that was kind of one of the last times I was playing with leverage 43:30.990 --> 43:35.830 But I was I was like experimenting with cross-margin. I was short a whole bunch of stuff including dog 43:36.330 --> 43:40.550 But then when dog pump 2x, it just wiped me out. It wiped out all of my short positions 43:40.550 --> 43:46.010 So I was pretty sad at that moment because it wasn't a huge amount, but it wasn't an inconsequential amount 43:46.010 --> 43:48.950 I would have made a pretty penny if I hadn't gotten wiped out and liquidated 43:49.610 --> 43:51.650 on that one confession times 43:51.650 --> 43:56.030 Confessions of body on the price report. Okay, you know what? Let's go to the Bitcoin 43:56.830 --> 44:00.710 Bitcoin versus gold. So someone last week had asked me to do 44:01.390 --> 44:06.430 The regression analysis not on the Bitcoin usd chart, but in the Bitcoin versus gold chart 44:06.430 --> 44:10.630 And I got to tell you there's only two lines here. We've got the bottom and the top line, right? 44:10.690 --> 44:11.610 We've only got the boundaries 44:12.610 --> 44:16.150 This regression is not nearly as clean as the regression 44:17.510 --> 44:22.790 Bitcoin versus the US dollar which is kind of surprising because you think that gold might introduce some kind of stability there 44:22.790 --> 44:27.930 I don't know why that that it hasn't but at any rate. This is kind of what it looks like 44:29.490 --> 44:36.910 You know, I trust this chart less than I trust the the US dollar regression analysis simply again because 44:37.470 --> 44:42.230 It's this chart is not as clean. I had to do some more arbitrary stuff and like 44:42.930 --> 44:44.410 I won't get into all of it 44:44.410 --> 44:48.950 But like there were some things I had to do that you would consider to be somewhat dubious in a mathematical sense 44:49.670 --> 44:56.770 So it's like you sort of border on on the edge of applying the tool incorrectly and in doing so in statistics 44:56.770 --> 45:00.410 You might completely invalidate whatever thing you think that you have 45:01.030 --> 45:03.730 That you have arrived at whatever conclusions you might have arrived at 45:04.350 --> 45:09.910 Nevertheless with my disclaimer out of the way so that the financial bros don't sue me 45:11.250 --> 45:16.790 For all my financial advice. Yeah, we are actually looking like we're approaching the the lower boundary here 45:16.790 --> 45:22.930 So in a sense, it almost looks like it's about time to flip your gold into Bitcoin 45:22.930 --> 45:30.810 But when it's time to flip your gold in the Bitcoin it that really means it's time to flip your gold into probably some other higher beta higher volatility 45:31.350 --> 45:33.470 Higher risk higher reward cryptocurrency 45:35.530 --> 45:38.170 In in a very slight way this kind of makes me think that 45:39.270 --> 45:40.170 We again 45:40.170 --> 45:47.330 This is like the slightest of point in favor of the crash of some kind of like liquidity intervention could be coming sooner rather than later 45:47.890 --> 45:52.790 Because when the liquidity intervention kicks off Bitcoin is going to outperform gold gold has been outperforming Bitcoin here 45:52.790 --> 45:54.550 For a while now for like most of the year 45:56.050 --> 45:58.810 Gold will continue going up after the liquidity event intervention 45:58.810 --> 46:04.490 But so will Bitcoin but the thing that gold does gold likes to start going up before the crisis happens 46:04.490 --> 46:11.850 We've seen this classically now since 2008 gold will go up and then and then the rest of the markets will tend to follow 46:11.850 --> 46:15.730 There will be a crash it will be limited for gold gold will continue going up 46:15.730 --> 46:17.530 But then the rest of the markets will start catching up 46:17.530 --> 46:21.990 So if we get a crash here this this chart is telling you that that yeah 46:21.990 --> 46:25.930 It's it's about time to flip your gold into into crypto or into Bitcoin 46:25.930 --> 46:34.310 So I think that's an interesting thing that's against not totally not as totally airtight of a statistical case that I would like it to be 46:34.310 --> 46:40.790 But but perhaps a signal perhaps useful. So yeah, that's Bitcoin versus gold on their aggression analysis 46:41.730 --> 46:43.450 With that, let's go ahead and take a look at the macro 46:43.450 --> 46:46.350 I think we're starting to get long in the tooth here on this report 46:46.350 --> 46:49.350 So we'll try and power speed through the macro stuff 46:49.950 --> 46:54.550 Gold as we talked about has now touching that that resistance line 46:54.550 --> 46:58.830 This is completely expected for it to have a little bit of resistance here 46:58.830 --> 47:05.710 Given that given the how long this chart pattern is again going back to 1980 with the first gold blowoff 47:05.710 --> 47:09.270 After Nixon protected us against the speculators 47:09.270 --> 47:15.350 Which is what he told us he was doing where they allowed gold to float where they depict gold from the US dollar completely 47:15.930 --> 47:17.090 Still this chart 47:17.610 --> 47:20.390 We're gonna go we are in a bullish gold scenario here 47:20.990 --> 47:25.010 Technically speaking it could take until the end of the decade for this chart pattern to break 47:25.010 --> 47:30.570 It probably won't take that long given that that the next liquidity expansion is probably upon us 47:30.570 --> 47:32.310 This thing is gonna eventually break probably 47:32.810 --> 47:37.390 Find some resistance find some support and then maybe go to the upside or maybe it just doesn't even care 47:37.390 --> 47:38.730 Maybe just breaks it who knows whatever 47:39.930 --> 47:43.150 Yeah, so the theme with the macro for this week is that 47:43.150 --> 47:50.430 Hold on to your crash thesis. It's not quite yet, right? That's that's kind of the idea of what I saw this week 47:51.130 --> 47:58.810 So we had the reverse repos going towards the upside. That's people leaving risk going into the safety of putting their money with the Federal Reserve 47:58.810 --> 48:02.770 Yes, yes, I know ha ha the safety of bonds 48:04.250 --> 48:05.450 Please please a kid 48:05.450 --> 48:13.130 But in the traditional perspective and in very real perspective being in a yielding in a bond that yields five percent 48:14.650 --> 48:18.810 Is better than being in a crash and a crash scenario in the stock market, right? 48:19.130 --> 48:21.950 And the government's good for it. They're just gonna print the money to pay the bond anyways 48:21.950 --> 48:23.770 So it's like in a way it is kind of safe 48:24.330 --> 48:25.310 It's a safety play 48:25.310 --> 48:30.190 But so people had done the safety play like the big money had done the safety play for a period of time 48:30.190 --> 48:33.150 And this was actually a strong movement, but that came back down this week 48:33.150 --> 48:37.330 So it's like, okay, that is that is probably money that left safety and went to risk, right? 48:37.410 --> 48:38.890 So went to the stock market effectively 48:39.590 --> 48:44.770 Obviously not crypto descriptive didn't really pump I would also hazard to say that 48:44.770 --> 48:52.710 There is a broadening structure now happening on the reverse repos and that implies uncertainty and ever 48:53.610 --> 48:59.470 Increasing oscillation of volatility. I don't know which way this is gonna go in a crash scenario 48:59.470 --> 49:04.810 Probably this thing goes to the direction to the upside because people seek the safety of Federal Reserve 49:04.810 --> 49:07.490 You get the overnight rate federal funds rate for doing that 49:08.450 --> 49:12.330 Yeah, so that's basically a broadening structure. I'm not really convinced how much 49:13.530 --> 49:15.690 Technical analysis is 49:15.690 --> 49:20.230 Valid on this particular chart, but I think there's probably some validity to it 49:20.230 --> 49:28.170 So yeah, this might increase this broadening megaphone pattern here might indicate some kind of uncertainty in the market in general 49:29.310 --> 49:33.750 Let's see here Dixie so the dollar index interestingly enough the dollar index came back 49:34.450 --> 49:37.030 Just ticked up a little bit, but nothing crazy 49:37.770 --> 49:42.310 Which is the fact that gold actually held a stable price, right gold held 49:43.610 --> 49:47.590 Basically kept it was flat throughout the week. It didn't really go down. It didn't go up much 49:48.470 --> 49:51.510 Even though the dollar index pumped and usually these are anti correlated 49:51.510 --> 49:54.630 So that's actually strength that gold is showing here the fact the dollar index went up 49:55.250 --> 50:01.330 But gold held its own that that that kind of implies a kind of strength that the gold performed with there 50:01.850 --> 50:04.690 And then bonds. So the other thing too is that is that bonds? 50:06.510 --> 50:13.630 The rate bond rates actually yields went up a little bit which indicates people leaving bonds slightly and going into risk assets, right? 50:14.370 --> 50:17.930 Because rates 10 bond rates tend to go up as people sell the bonds 50:17.930 --> 50:24.210 So yeah, the rates going up means that people were probably leaving a little bit bonds to go into risk in terms of the inversion 50:24.210 --> 50:25.330 We still are 50:26.110 --> 50:29.970 That one of our measurements here went down a little bit one of our measurements went up 50:29.970 --> 50:33.710 So overall that was flat and then we had also talked about oil 50:34.330 --> 50:39.770 Previously we said hey it fell out of its trend. It actually got back into its trend as of this past week 50:39.770 --> 50:43.730 That was a big bump on the oil price. So again, it's kind of like the macro saying yeah 50:43.730 --> 50:49.150 Not quite yet like okay the signs are there, but but maybe we're not quite ready to crash just yet 50:49.150 --> 50:52.510 But that's you know, that's just one week of of new data 50:52.510 --> 50:57.350 So we got to see how things unfold who knows what kind of shenanigans might be going into the election 50:57.940 --> 51:03.930 And what kinds of things like they might get kind of bullshit that might try to get pulled or whatever right like who knows 51:04.710 --> 51:08.450 Stock markets the S&P put on I wouldn't say a new all-time high 51:08.450 --> 51:11.710 But I mean closing close the week at its all-time highs effectively 51:12.710 --> 51:15.850 NASDAQ still up but still kind of underperforming the S&P overall 51:18.950 --> 51:20.810 So you know one thing also again 51:21.730 --> 51:25.890 The the unemployment we remember we talked about the unemployment that once it's passed a certain point 51:25.890 --> 51:30.970 It it tends to spike up and that is like and that's it right like that's the recession. That's the that's the crash 51:31.610 --> 51:34.370 Right now. We've actually had one two months 51:34.370 --> 51:41.070 So we've had the past two months where the unemployment actually came down. So unemployment is not ticking up anymore and perhaps 51:42.110 --> 51:47.370 You know, perhaps the market isn't totally sure yet. Hey, this thing's gonna crash. Oh, and also by the way remember guys 51:47.990 --> 51:48.870 remember that 51:50.810 --> 51:52.590 That we don't we don't necessarily 51:53.170 --> 51:57.510 We don't necessarily know exactly like when this is gonna happen, right? Again, I'm speculating 51:58.490 --> 52:04.710 Okay, so another thing that slightly bothers me about the unemployment chart is that in almost all cases when it was time for the crash to happen 52:04.710 --> 52:09.970 So counter counter thesis time when it was time for the crash to happen. We didn't see really any major pullback 52:11.050 --> 52:17.050 We didn't see a big pullback of the unemployment. It just continued spiking may be like right here just a little bit 52:17.050 --> 52:23.090 But that was one two months wait hang on one two three months where it pulled back for a period of time 52:23.090 --> 52:29.770 So if the next unemployment numbers continue to drop or stay flat, you know, that's maybe you know 52:29.770 --> 52:34.850 I'll have to I'll have to note that as a counterpoint to my thesis here of crash sooner than later 52:35.930 --> 52:42.850 Okay, with that, I don't think we have much else to talk about here mineral transactions still 25,000 looks like our little bump up here 52:43.410 --> 52:49.490 Above 30 that was just a temporary for a and now we're back down to our stable transaction levels 52:49.490 --> 52:51.030 Which appears to be 25,000 52:52.430 --> 52:55.030 And I'll check the chats make sure I haven't missed anybody 52:57.390 --> 53:00.050 No, okay crash to the upside oh 53:00.990 --> 53:05.650 Yeah, okay, so fairly fairly reasonable investor on YouTube says crash to the upside question mark 53:06.210 --> 53:07.310 Yeah, I mean 53:08.030 --> 53:16.070 Don't forget that in the last in 2019 the markets did massively pump before the the medical intervention happened 53:16.070 --> 53:18.090 In 2020 March of 2020 53:19.110 --> 53:21.450 Markets did just smash to the upside, right? 53:21.650 --> 53:27.030 So you have to keep that in mind because it is possible that you could be sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash 53:27.030 --> 53:30.530 Even as the market pumps and then if and if the dip doesn't happen, right? 53:30.590 --> 53:34.130 If you're waiting for the dip and the dip never comes then like you've just you just lost out 53:34.130 --> 53:39.370 Which is why I'm like, okay have something in the markets, but also have some cash on hand have a strategy be prepared 53:41.010 --> 53:44.130 And yeah with that guys, I'm gonna hand it back to do everything right 53:45.050 --> 53:47.870 Yeah, just make no mistakes and you'll you'll win 53:50.010 --> 53:54.230 There's actually a lot of truth to that though like in and almost any sport and anything you do 53:54.830 --> 53:59.430 Like if you're new at something the first thing to do is to stop making mistakes or make fewer mistakes 53:59.430 --> 54:04.970 Like in the winter hitting, you know smashing the the best shot throwing the perfect punch 54:05.930 --> 54:09.350 Yeah, I mean definitely you should be aiming for that 54:09.350 --> 54:15.830 But the first thing is fix your mistakes and that will that will yield you far better gains in any endeavor that you do 54:16.670 --> 54:19.970 Before necessarily trying to you know to hit all the winners 54:22.850 --> 54:26.650 Life advice with Baudi and I just don't make mistakes 54:28.370 --> 54:32.790 All right, man amazing as always, thank you. Thank you 54:33.530 --> 54:36.330 Thank you for that that being that beacon of 54:37.050 --> 54:40.690 Guidance during these tumultuous times as always body 54:41.270 --> 54:45.630 For steering us through these these hard times in the narrow land 54:47.130 --> 54:52.310 Yeah, anybody that's that's concerned about these things. Yeah, you didn't know what you signed up for guys 54:52.310 --> 54:57.150 I mean when narrow is is not welcomed on centralized exchanges and 54:58.010 --> 55:01.270 There are arguments for why it is better off that way. So 55:02.170 --> 55:07.610 It's awesome about how naive I was when I got into Monero and started like participating in the community 55:08.190 --> 55:11.050 I don't know. This is back in 2018. I guess 2019 55:11.990 --> 55:16.110 Yeah, I mean I even back then I didn't even have my bearings that well on on markets 55:16.110 --> 55:20.090 Like I mean I had like the fuzzy idea of the beginnings, you know 55:20.090 --> 55:23.570 What would sort of become the broad headline structure of how I see markets? 55:23.690 --> 55:28.270 But I didn't I had no idea that we were in in store for this kind of battle for all the stuff 55:28.270 --> 55:31.650 That was that was gonna happen with Monero with all these two listings and you know 55:31.650 --> 55:35.050 The fractional reserve and I had no idea that the cryptocurrency space was 55:35.910 --> 55:41.070 So that there were so many nefarious players behind the scenes screwing with with price and screwing with everything 55:41.570 --> 55:42.450 But you live you learn 55:43.570 --> 55:45.290 So naive you were so naive 55:46.610 --> 55:49.170 Yeah, I think I think it's been a shock for all of us 55:49.770 --> 55:55.250 But you know from the get-go, right? This this thing was always meant to be adversarial versus the state. So 55:57.170 --> 56:00.410 For for a crypto to function, we knew that there had to be a 56:01.150 --> 56:03.830 Major battle but that would that would be taking place at some point 56:04.530 --> 56:08.350 It's funny Monero was so good that in a way it kind of forced us all to walk the walk 56:08.850 --> 56:10.910 We didn't like we like we talked about it 56:10.910 --> 56:15.550 But I don't think we expected that like that was that this was gonna be the path and then Monero was like 56:15.550 --> 56:17.690 It was so good that we said well 56:17.690 --> 56:22.970 It sort of forced us to to bring our actions and our thinking into alignment with 56:23.390 --> 56:24.330 Know with what it was 56:25.350 --> 56:30.030 But don't take that to mean I'm saying Monero's a deity guys, please no maximalism. We're not evangelists 56:32.090 --> 56:32.490 Although 56:35.330 --> 56:38.950 You say you're like hey spread the word and like yeah, we're not evangelists 56:38.950 --> 56:42.910 That's kind of the problem, right like we saw the maximalist stuff and now we're like no 56:42.910 --> 56:45.310 No, I'm not an evangelist, but maybe we got a 56:45.550 --> 56:47.310 Little bit more on the marketing side 56:49.070 --> 56:52.830 Yeah, I don't think there's anything wrong with that, you know, you obviously it depends how you're marketing 56:52.830 --> 56:59.530 We just want people to know this utility exists the option exists Monero's digital cash. I 56:59.530 --> 57:01.330 Just want they can pump my bags 57:03.410 --> 57:07.010 Yeah, we're being brutally honest about it. Yeah come pump our bags