WEBVTT 00:06.580 --> 00:11.460 Welcome back to Radio Rothbard. I'm Ryan McKamakin with the Mises Institute and 00:12.040 --> 00:17.640 Though Bishop is on vacation. So with me this week is Zachary Yost 00:17.640 --> 00:25.080 Our foreign policy guy and it happens to be foreign policy week anyway, so the two of us will discuss 00:25.080 --> 00:26.760 what is going on 00:27.420 --> 00:27.920 with 00:28.740 --> 00:35.200 Trump is upcoming foreign policy the escalation in Ukraine and will anything really change 00:35.200 --> 00:41.480 Once Trump is in office, you know was something that Lou Rockwell once said to me was 00:42.120 --> 00:48.800 The regime lies about everything all the time, but they lie even more about foreign policy 00:48.800 --> 00:55.480 And I think that's probably very very true is that it's just next to impossible to get reliable information 00:55.480 --> 01:02.040 Or to really know where any sort of candidate or president is headed on the foreign policy issue 01:02.040 --> 01:04.700 Certainly ahead of time you basically have to just wait and see what they do 01:05.200 --> 01:07.540 And even then you don't know what their motivations are 01:08.080 --> 01:13.080 So we're just we're peering through a fog here trying to try to figure out what the story is 01:13.880 --> 01:21.020 With foreign policy before we do that. I just want to make sure that if you haven't seen it yet to be sure and check out our 01:21.960 --> 01:27.040 Documentary on the Federal Reserve. This is called the Federal Reserve playing with fire 01:27.760 --> 01:28.900 and you can find that 01:29.180 --> 01:37.700 At mises.org MISES.org slash fire and this has all of our top guys right Salerno 01:38.600 --> 01:39.880 Alex Pollack 01:40.640 --> 01:44.620 Mark Thornton Jonathan Newman all offering their insights 01:45.380 --> 01:49.980 On the Fed with some basic explanation about the Fed as well 01:49.980 --> 01:51.220 It's a beginner video 01:51.220 --> 01:55.940 But even if you've been following the Mises Institute for a while you might find some good nuggets in there 01:55.940 --> 02:03.520 Especially how our experts phrase the realities of how the Fed works. So be sure and check that out if you haven't seen it yet 02:03.520 --> 02:04.220 That's 02:05.000 --> 02:09.640 MISES.org slash fire. That's our new Federal Reserve documentary 02:10.560 --> 02:12.960 So on the foreign policy issue 02:13.560 --> 02:13.860 Zach 02:14.820 --> 02:20.740 Uh, so trump won great. I mean, I always wonder how much foreign policy even really 02:21.380 --> 02:22.300 Factors in 02:23.240 --> 02:30.480 To an election. I mean plenty of people tell you oh it's inflation which uh, yeah economic conditions. I think we're a major factor 02:31.420 --> 02:35.720 And there was a plenty of other domestic issues as well 02:35.720 --> 02:38.360 I don't know in the average calculus of 02:38.360 --> 02:42.140 Of the voters and of course it depends on which voter you talk to 02:42.920 --> 02:44.580 as to how much 02:45.540 --> 02:49.420 Foreign policy was a factor now a lot of people I think maybe would admit that 02:51.060 --> 02:54.240 Seeing hundreds of billions of dollars go to Ukraine 02:54.980 --> 03:00.360 While people are having trouble paying for groceries probably wasn't wasn't great 03:00.360 --> 03:07.200 But I noticed that the money given handed over to the state of israel is never was never discussed during the election 03:07.200 --> 03:09.280 There were never any calls to end foreign aid 03:09.970 --> 03:10.260 to 03:10.870 --> 03:14.160 That country just to Ukraine. So 03:14.880 --> 03:19.900 Obviously, there wasn't a general sentiment against foreign aid or foreign intervention here 03:20.280 --> 03:21.960 Just I guess in Ukraine 03:23.300 --> 03:28.600 And on the issue of china too there didn't seem to be much problem with people voting for trump 03:29.580 --> 03:34.880 Given his belligerence toward china and efforts to start a trade war and 03:35.260 --> 03:40.040 A variety of other pieces of tough talk toward beijing 03:40.560 --> 03:46.820 So I don't I have my personal opinions. I don't think we can say in any way. This is one some sort of anti interventionist 03:46.820 --> 03:47.680 election 03:48.360 --> 03:53.680 And that there was any sort of mandate coming for the trump administration to bring all the troops home 03:54.420 --> 03:57.160 Although i'm sure many of the voters would be fine with that 03:58.200 --> 04:05.540 So i'm not holding my breath for major changes in foreign policy, but I wanted to get your sense of that. I mean 04:05.540 --> 04:11.440 And as we've discussed in the past right, I mean foreign policy is what always seems to change the least 04:12.060 --> 04:14.720 When when administrations come and go 04:15.420 --> 04:18.720 Uh and there are reasons for that that we can discuss 04:18.720 --> 04:24.940 But what's your take on on the trump victory and and uh, I don't know on a scale of 1 to 10 04:24.940 --> 04:27.880 What number would you assign to the amount that things are going to change? 04:28.240 --> 04:30.380 With the new administration coming in 04:32.500 --> 04:34.300 Yes, so uh 04:35.540 --> 04:37.760 I think you're correct on 04:37.760 --> 04:43.580 The role foreign policy played most people were concerned with domestic issues. I would say however 04:44.400 --> 04:51.300 Uh, I have seen some polling that in general people did support a less interventionist stance 04:51.300 --> 04:55.100 As you note with israel there is 04:55.100 --> 05:00.860 Differing views on that though. I do think ukraine is sort of the poster child for 05:01.680 --> 05:02.440 people thinking 05:03.220 --> 05:09.500 You know our foreign policies off the rails. I mean people are like, oh my goodness world war three could happen 05:10.300 --> 05:14.100 And also, yeah, just the pouring gajillions of dollars into this war 05:15.280 --> 05:21.620 Uh, there were some people who were very motivated by foreign policy and this is where it's going to be 05:22.280 --> 05:23.940 interesting to see how 05:24.680 --> 05:27.840 Trump trumpian governance actually plays out because 05:28.740 --> 05:34.820 He made huge inroads among arab and muslim americans and also among jewish americans 05:35.640 --> 05:36.920 so that's 05:37.600 --> 05:41.840 I mean, maybe he can cut a good deal as it were 05:41.840 --> 05:46.320 There was a piece in the american conservative a few weeks before the election 05:46.980 --> 05:48.080 that said that 05:48.840 --> 05:50.820 basically the word is that 05:51.440 --> 05:55.900 Israeli governing officials were a little bit worried that trump would win actually 05:56.580 --> 05:58.640 And for to force them to 05:59.360 --> 06:00.040 conclude 06:00.620 --> 06:01.600 the situation 06:02.480 --> 06:10.300 I don't know if that'll make anyone happy or maybe just one side or the other, but that's something that's out there 06:12.880 --> 06:18.300 One to ten of how much things will change I really I can't say at this point 06:19.060 --> 06:20.940 I do know that 06:21.680 --> 06:22.360 There 06:22.360 --> 06:28.820 Are some encouraging signs. I mean to me it's I'm a bit optimistic I would say 06:29.830 --> 06:31.520 With relatively 06:32.760 --> 06:36.940 Small goals in terms of what what makes good progress 06:37.770 --> 06:39.200 About 10 years ago 06:39.810 --> 06:44.700 Now or nine years ago, I guess when I worked in dc in foreign policy 06:46.270 --> 06:47.760 The current situation 06:48.770 --> 06:50.520 Was really unimaginable 06:50.990 --> 06:57.700 In terms of what was acceptable to be said and what was considered kooky nonsense 07:00.160 --> 07:03.120 Specifically just addressing foreign policy 07:03.670 --> 07:07.400 JD vance's comments, I find very 07:08.050 --> 07:08.400 Good 07:08.870 --> 07:15.200 Well before you go on give me some examples of when you were in dc like what what was considered kooky nonsense 07:15.200 --> 07:17.600 And what was considered just standard run of the mill stuff? 07:18.160 --> 07:22.140 Oh, I mean all of our basically everything on this show was 07:23.500 --> 07:26.900 Out there. I mean for a great example is nato 07:26.900 --> 07:32.560 Uh, I mean one of the first pieces I ever wrote that got published in sort of a mainstream thing 07:32.560 --> 07:34.120 I wrote for the national interest 07:34.680 --> 07:39.260 And I think they called it nato doesn't need monti negros teeny tiny military 07:40.140 --> 07:42.380 Uh, where I pointed out this is ridiculous 07:42.760 --> 07:48.620 The new york city police department is like 15 times bigger than monti negros armed forces 07:49.080 --> 07:51.240 How does this, you know support 07:51.980 --> 07:55.520 American security in any way and it was a tiny minority view 07:56.200 --> 07:59.880 That either was ridiculed or just scoffed at 08:00.840 --> 08:01.440 I mean 08:02.180 --> 08:05.800 All of our work on basically saying oh leaving afghanistan 08:06.540 --> 08:08.240 That was heretical 08:09.760 --> 08:10.440 I mean 08:11.340 --> 08:13.880 The the arguments about 08:14.480 --> 08:20.700 Why the situation in ukraine and georgia was closer in history then but 08:20.700 --> 08:25.020 You know arguing that nato intervention nato expansion 08:25.680 --> 08:30.580 Contributed to the situation there was I think his name is josh shifras shifrinzen 08:31.160 --> 08:36.480 Can't remember where he is now, but he had an article come out. I think in um 08:37.620 --> 08:41.340 Uh international security, maybe I forget the journal 08:42.180 --> 08:43.020 but uh 08:43.840 --> 08:47.380 Making the historical case that you know the us 08:47.980 --> 08:54.480 Made promises to the collapsing soviet union slash new russia that nato expansion wouldn't happen 08:55.140 --> 08:57.680 And this this was so controversial 08:59.260 --> 09:00.220 And so 09:01.460 --> 09:06.280 It it made people hopping mad basically shifrinzen was actually chased off of twitter 09:06.480 --> 09:09.940 After the ukraine war started uh people were so 09:10.630 --> 09:12.020 Out of their minds angry 09:12.640 --> 09:18.040 shifrinzen by the way is now at the university of maryland center for international and security studies 09:18.650 --> 09:20.800 Yeah, just case anyone's interested 09:21.360 --> 09:21.840 um 09:22.580 --> 09:27.660 So just basically saying the us should be doing less. I mean the the our motto 09:28.290 --> 09:30.860 Back then was realism in restraint 09:30.860 --> 09:38.000 And that was a minority view that was very difficult to find people advocating for now. It's very common 09:38.640 --> 09:43.540 It's still a minority view, but it I mean we have people in power who are 09:44.120 --> 09:46.340 advocating for it and 09:47.380 --> 09:53.180 I know that there is an effort to get people who are in favor of realism restraint 09:53.840 --> 09:59.080 To be appointed by trump in you know all all levels of the 09:59.800 --> 10:03.280 Executive branch whether that plays out and of course 10:04.040 --> 10:07.640 There's going to be a mix. I'm unsure what to think of marco rubio 10:07.640 --> 10:12.020 Some people say he have told me that he has actually become less hawkish 10:12.020 --> 10:17.280 I've not paid much attention to him since 2016 when he 10:18.500 --> 10:22.040 Dropped out of the race. He to me has not been on my radar a ton 10:22.760 --> 10:28.420 That'd be good. He's hawkish on iran lots of I mean that's going to be there, but 10:29.080 --> 10:32.760 Compared to before to not be hawkish on ukraine in russia 10:33.620 --> 10:39.200 And be hawkish iran is an improvement from being hawkish on everything. Yes, I agree 10:40.260 --> 10:41.460 and um 10:43.000 --> 10:44.860 Yeah, so it to me 10:45.580 --> 10:49.460 This is a dream come true really. I mean we're not 10:50.120 --> 10:55.960 Anywhere close to the job being done the job's barely starting to be done, but to me it's 10:56.860 --> 11:05.920 We've made enormous progress where it's not just a fringe view to be advocating for realism and restraint as as we might put it 11:05.920 --> 11:08.620 Yeah, I think sometimes it's helpful to remind the black pillars 11:09.380 --> 11:11.780 Just how how much worse things were 11:12.820 --> 11:14.840 In not too long ago 11:15.400 --> 11:20.900 And for us older guys who remember times like 2003 2004 11:21.800 --> 11:24.800 Really all the way up until the end of the bush administration 11:25.500 --> 11:32.620 Uh because remember obama won a big victory in 2008 on promises to end 11:33.020 --> 11:37.120 The iraq war and the afghanistan war none of which he did of course 11:37.820 --> 11:44.040 Uh because he's a horrible horrible person and then i'm not i don't i'm not exaggerating like he's truly loathsome 11:44.040 --> 11:46.120 swamp creature obama was 11:46.120 --> 11:53.300 But he absolutely ran on this idea of scaling back military intervention. Uh, it seems every president does that right? 11:53.300 --> 11:58.560 bush ran in 2000 on the humble foreign policy and that sort of thing but 11:58.560 --> 12:01.680 9 11 of course massively set back the cause 12:01.680 --> 12:07.660 Of non-intervention because the state was ready the state was ready to turn it into massive justification for 12:08.180 --> 12:14.660 Surveillance state for the patriot act for department of homeland security all of the seven which all of they had drafted and ready to go 12:14.660 --> 12:16.740 In legislation they were just waiting 12:17.260 --> 12:20.620 For a good reason to do it and you couldn't say anything 12:21.480 --> 12:22.000 against 12:22.000 --> 12:29.600 Constant war everywhere in 2004 2005. You were literally told to your face that you hated america 12:29.600 --> 12:33.380 Uh, the bush administration literally said you're either with us or you're with the terrorists 12:33.940 --> 12:36.600 So it's good to keep that sort of thing in mind 12:36.600 --> 12:40.980 Of course, I guess nowadays if you say anything against, uh, the usual foreign policy 12:40.980 --> 12:46.860 You're either with you're either with biden or you're with putin. I guess that's the current version of that but 12:47.340 --> 12:50.020 At least half the country regards that as absurd 12:50.600 --> 12:56.820 Whereas in 2004 those of us who were against constant intervention were a teeny tiny minority 12:57.460 --> 13:03.280 Uh, so yes, I agree. Uh, also the rally around the flag effect doesn't seem to work nearly as well 13:03.280 --> 13:08.460 As it used to all you had to do it seemed the presidents for 30 40 years 13:09.140 --> 13:16.200 If not longer after 1945 all you had to do was claim that some foreign power had insulted you in some way 13:16.200 --> 13:22.120 Americans would rally around the idea of starting a new war. Some americans still do that usually old guys 13:22.900 --> 13:27.560 But people have largely grown very very tired of that nonsense 13:28.280 --> 13:31.100 So, yeah, definitely, um 13:31.640 --> 13:35.660 Progress has been made. So I guess the question is okay. How much 13:36.240 --> 13:39.120 How much will this actually materialize? 13:39.580 --> 13:41.760 in terms of any sort of 13:41.760 --> 13:48.700 Actual scaling back because I guess there's two phases here. There's the phase where you just stop starting new wars constantly 13:49.760 --> 13:50.280 and 13:50.860 --> 13:58.340 I do think that any attempt to actually send american troops to invade a foreign country would be met with a lot of resistance 13:59.020 --> 14:02.160 Uh, whereas you could get away with that in 2003 14:02.780 --> 14:10.820 Um, even to a country that nothing to do with 9 11 i.e. iraq 14:10.820 --> 14:12.560 To go there thousands of which died 14:13.460 --> 14:19.120 How many americans are willing to sign up and go get killed for ukraine or even taiwan? 14:19.580 --> 14:20.360 I don't know it 14:20.360 --> 14:23.580 But it's going to take a whole lot more propaganda than they've got going so far 14:23.580 --> 14:28.340 To get people to sign off on that. So that's that's phase one where you just 14:28.900 --> 14:33.760 Stop starting new wars or sending americans to go die places. I guess phase two 14:33.760 --> 14:37.960 Uh, would be actually withdrawing 14:37.960 --> 14:43.060 From some places and it doesn't appear that we've reached that phase 14:43.640 --> 14:44.600 at all 14:45.240 --> 14:50.340 Yet, uh, and I agree with you. I think maybe the first place we would actually see that happen would be in ukraine 14:50.340 --> 14:52.440 Where maybe the u.s. Would actually become 14:53.220 --> 14:55.120 anti interventionist or you know it 14:55.840 --> 15:01.000 Quietly just sort of withdraw from that lesson have less and less of a footprint in ukraine over time 15:01.560 --> 15:05.940 They're certainly not going to make any big announcements about how yep, you know russia can do whatever it wants now 15:06.720 --> 15:08.640 But I could see just sort of a quiet 15:09.340 --> 15:12.000 silent withdrawal from that arena 15:14.500 --> 15:20.800 But I just don't I don't know what the odds are on that. I think the the big question right is on iran 15:21.800 --> 15:27.240 But I mean trump. I would describe trump as an iran hawk during his term his first term 15:27.240 --> 15:33.460 But even that materialized in terms of some drone attacks and assassinations 15:34.000 --> 15:37.480 And things like that. I mean it's all dishonest and acts of war 15:38.120 --> 15:45.200 But it seemed orchestrated to avoid any sort of u.s. Invasion of iran or to provoke that sort of thing 15:45.200 --> 15:50.900 Yeah on uh on a well, we'll get to iran in the middle east, but I just want to note 15:51.540 --> 15:51.880 Uh 15:53.740 --> 15:56.060 Trump was interviewed on 15:56.060 --> 16:05.040 I don't remember his first name something bet david a popular podcaster. I'm not familiar with until this election 16:05.820 --> 16:11.920 He trump flat out said we don't want regime change and can't get involved in that in iran 16:13.100 --> 16:19.140 That's not saying yeah, we're packing up and leaving the middle east but compared to where things were before 16:19.700 --> 16:22.820 Huge improvement crazy. This is whoo 16:23.780 --> 16:26.240 practically, you know, we have to see what happens, but you know 16:26.780 --> 16:27.960 Get the champagne 16:28.600 --> 16:34.820 Well, we were talking about regime change in russia just a few years ago, which of course was just crazy talk 16:34.820 --> 16:40.440 It's still yeah, it's it's madness. But so let's go. Let's start with um speaking of russia 16:40.440 --> 16:43.780 Yeah, let's talk about europe and ukraine because we're gonna talk about the three 16:44.320 --> 16:50.860 Theaters as it were. Well, okay, so there was an escalation in ukraine now. This is biden administration stuff 16:52.420 --> 16:56.920 Where I mean what's going on there now? I I wrote a short article for mesis.org for 16:57.600 --> 17:02.960 Powered market on this and I started with the sentence the people who run the biden administration. Yes 17:03.620 --> 17:08.440 Escalated in that theater recently right because I don't know does biden know what's going on 17:08.930 --> 17:12.820 I have a hard time believing biden handed down orders saying yes 17:13.780 --> 17:20.880 Tell ukraine to start using long-range missiles on russia. I mean it's possible, but he doesn't seem on that level of engaged 17:22.420 --> 17:26.220 I mean technically wasn't he in brazil when this decision was made? 17:29.820 --> 17:30.860 But uh 17:31.420 --> 17:33.800 Yeah, so what do you think's going on there the 17:35.300 --> 17:43.080 I cannot view it any other way as in a middle finger to trump by you're exactly right whoever's running things in the administration 17:43.900 --> 17:47.180 To allow so we've we've given 17:47.940 --> 17:53.280 Ukraine these long-range missiles at a cms. I don't remember what that stands for 17:53.280 --> 17:57.200 I think the range is about 250 miles if i'm not mistaken 17:57.680 --> 18:02.320 It's around 200 for sure because yeah, I looked that up yesterday and um, they 18:02.860 --> 18:04.480 The so there's several 18:05.280 --> 18:08.960 Several layers here. We have to talk about so one the first rule 18:08.960 --> 18:18.740 Until now was ukraine cannot use them outside of ukraine's pre-2014 borders against russia, so they couldn't strike russia russia 18:21.180 --> 18:26.100 That that is what was lifted that ban they were allowed to use them in 18:26.100 --> 18:29.440 Kursk oblast where they have their offensive that 18:30.060 --> 18:31.720 In my view has been a disaster 18:32.600 --> 18:33.360 now 18:34.220 --> 18:34.980 and so 18:35.380 --> 18:38.000 That rule was lifted and ukraine 18:38.800 --> 18:42.240 Excuse me. It seems they launched six of these missiles 18:43.280 --> 18:46.380 And russia says five were shot down. Who knows how many 18:47.760 --> 18:51.420 But the point is is that it was viewed as a big escalation 18:52.040 --> 18:52.620 and 18:52.620 --> 18:53.560 There's 18:53.990 --> 18:55.280 two more layers then 18:55.830 --> 19:00.680 The next layer is the technical aspect of these missiles. I'm not, you know 19:01.360 --> 19:07.400 Super familiar with but apparently the targeting needs to be done by basically 19:08.000 --> 19:08.180 these 19:09.120 --> 19:09.720 technicians 19:10.800 --> 19:14.820 And this is not a crazy conspiratorial thing to say 19:15.480 --> 19:20.860 One people have been saying this openly like well, you know, we're probably providing targeting etc etc 19:21.640 --> 19:26.720 But as we talked about many months ago, I can't even remember if it was this year or last year 19:26.720 --> 19:28.600 There was that leaked call 19:29.360 --> 19:30.740 from the german 19:31.440 --> 19:32.920 high military officials 19:32.920 --> 19:36.740 Uh who were in singapore and they were using an unsecured line 19:36.740 --> 19:39.500 And we have the transcript of the leaked call 19:40.320 --> 19:43.480 And they are discussing that this is a problem with them providing 19:44.020 --> 19:45.980 Whatever their equivalent missiles are 19:46.520 --> 19:51.300 To ukraine one they're like we can't give them enough to do really anything at all 19:52.060 --> 19:52.360 to 19:54.360 --> 19:57.760 Someone has to basically input the targeting data 19:58.480 --> 20:00.300 That can't and it not the ukrainians 20:00.300 --> 20:06.060 And so the the call was sort of scandalous in part because like well, maybe we can have this military contractor do it 20:06.820 --> 20:07.340 or 20:08.000 --> 20:14.420 Since the french and the americans are already in ukraine. Maybe they can do it for us 20:15.480 --> 20:22.440 So that's the second layer of why this is escalatory and then then there's the third layer is that russia is aware of this 20:23.440 --> 20:29.040 And several weeks ago or maybe months ago now everything's just blurred together. Putin said 20:29.840 --> 20:30.480 that 20:31.420 --> 20:32.000 you know 20:32.520 --> 20:34.260 An attack on russia 20:35.440 --> 20:37.300 With these missiles basically 20:38.600 --> 20:46.200 By basically by a non nuclear power backed by a nuclear power would be considered basically an act of war by natin 20:47.180 --> 20:51.260 So trump laid that line out real clear and 20:52.440 --> 20:54.040 The u.s. Just laid that line out 20:54.600 --> 20:56.520 I'm sorry. Putin. Yeah. Putin not trump 20:57.560 --> 20:59.580 Putin laid that line out real clear 21:00.660 --> 21:03.280 And in response to trump winning 21:04.140 --> 21:08.000 Whoever in the administration just waltzed right over it 21:08.440 --> 21:16.780 And i'm maybe they're thinking this is a great way to box trump in it's like we escalate the conflict and 21:17.880 --> 21:20.740 It'll be harder for trump to to get out of it 21:21.340 --> 21:21.820 Now 21:22.380 --> 21:28.060 So that's concerning. I don't think world war three is about to pop off. Um, it's a risk 21:28.680 --> 21:29.980 I think the betting odds 21:30.480 --> 21:35.360 We're up to like 18 percent that a nuclear device would go off this year or something 21:36.340 --> 21:40.380 I that's a pretty vague event though a nuclear device going off 21:40.380 --> 21:43.300 I mean, I that could be interpreting a number of ways. I don't 21:44.000 --> 21:50.440 I'm not worried about that. I mean, it's it's a possibility. We don't want to just keep escalating 21:50.740 --> 21:56.340 But partially because I it was very clear that Putin was happy trump won 21:57.640 --> 22:06.280 And polling shows like Russia was like the only country in europe where the vast majority of the population said they would have voted for trump 22:08.560 --> 22:13.880 So I i'm hoping that Putin will be like, okay, we've got 22:14.650 --> 22:18.120 You know to january 20th new administration coming in 22:19.000 --> 22:20.520 Let's not, you know 22:21.420 --> 22:27.080 Just burn all the bridges down as it were. I mean, not that there's many bridges left standing, but 22:28.220 --> 22:33.900 I'm hoping that'll lead to some restraint. It seems russia's gonna retaliate 22:35.120 --> 22:37.880 As a sort of deterrence maintenance 22:38.760 --> 22:44.280 Thing what that will take the form of who knows the u.s. Just shine its embassy down 22:44.840 --> 22:46.560 in Kiev because they're like 22:47.420 --> 22:49.660 There's an aerial attack that might happen 22:50.320 --> 22:55.660 And I just saw on twitter, which you know twitter rumor who knows that they might actually use 22:57.800 --> 23:04.700 There's speculation that that russia might launch a missile 23:05.340 --> 23:10.260 Capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but will not have a nuclear warhead on it to attack you of 23:10.260 --> 23:14.080 And it's not going to be very accurate. It's going to be, you know 23:15.040 --> 23:16.460 A big payload 23:17.120 --> 23:19.160 With a big wide, you know 23:19.640 --> 23:23.480 It's with nuclear weapons. You don't need to be pinpoint accurate. So 23:24.440 --> 23:26.300 I don't know if that's going to happen or not 23:26.300 --> 23:31.860 As as of the recording that was that speculation that's happening. All right, so let's do something 23:32.320 --> 23:36.960 Well, let's say right the rush the russians are right and uh, trump is the less belligerent party 23:37.510 --> 23:38.220 in terms of 23:38.720 --> 23:41.340 In terms of who is running for presidency in the united states 23:42.380 --> 23:46.320 It's it's easy to see why any reasonable person in russia would want trump to win 23:46.820 --> 23:50.620 Uh, because he just seems less obsessed with the russians the way that 23:52.020 --> 23:55.660 Kamala Kamala's people at least I mean she probably doesn't know where russia is 23:56.300 --> 24:01.160 But at least her people are pretty she's palling around with lis chaney who might have been 24:02.100 --> 24:06.760 Yeah, I want to talk about lis chaney. Maybe maybe maybe next time we could do that 24:06.760 --> 24:11.820 Just to this she's now become the world's most useless politician like has no purpose anymore 24:12.360 --> 24:14.800 But so let's say so okay, so trump's the less 24:14.800 --> 24:17.820 Uh, the less belligerent guy 24:18.500 --> 24:24.360 So what what should he do as soon as he comes into office in january? 24:24.500 --> 24:26.060 What so he's a reasonable guy 24:26.060 --> 24:30.300 What do you think he could get away with doing in washington just as his first steps to really 24:30.920 --> 24:33.760 Try and avoid any further escalations here 24:34.720 --> 24:38.560 Yeah, I mean that that's where it's going to be difficult 24:41.000 --> 24:43.840 For on the one hand, I doubt he's going to be 24:44.840 --> 24:45.520 pushing 24:47.100 --> 24:51.360 For you know big arms packages in congress 24:54.260 --> 24:58.420 I don't know what the bureaucracy is going to do 24:59.120 --> 25:03.100 In terms of continuing to ship things off to ukraine 25:03.100 --> 25:03.680 I mean 25:04.380 --> 25:10.120 All of the talk it's I mean, it's all funny money in terms of fake fake accounting of like 25:10.120 --> 25:17.020 We valued this humvee at x amount of dollars. Actually, we were wrong. It's you know negative x dollars 25:17.020 --> 25:19.360 So we can ship more stuff to ukraine 25:19.360 --> 25:25.460 Um, so they could play tricks like that in a way this escalation 25:26.020 --> 25:31.760 Could potentially be beneficial when trump comes to office in that it really 25:32.460 --> 25:38.360 Serves to remind him how the military bureaucracy screwed him over in his first term 25:39.110 --> 25:43.220 Great example is syria where he's like explicitly get out of syria 25:43.220 --> 25:48.100 Let's go and they stonewalled him and lied to him and they openly acknowledged this 25:48.750 --> 25:49.920 So this is a reminder 25:51.100 --> 25:51.720 Of 25:52.330 --> 25:58.040 You know his enemies as it were and his son don jr. Has been pleasantly 25:58.540 --> 26:05.360 Uh had good takes on twitter and he flat out, you know said this is a move to box my father in 26:06.000 --> 26:07.100 um, so 26:08.420 --> 26:14.660 Uh, and I can't I've seen other people affiliated with the transition and all that complaining about it 26:14.660 --> 26:19.900 So hopefully, you know, that'd be good if it really reminds trump, you know, these people can't be trusted 26:21.420 --> 26:22.020 Um 26:22.880 --> 26:29.600 On the other hand, I don't think trump wants and I actually think it would be bad for the cause of 26:30.460 --> 26:32.000 Reorienting american foreign policy 26:32.600 --> 26:36.420 If there is a just complete and total ukrainian collapse 26:37.060 --> 26:42.400 Uh, I'm glad we left afghanistan. I think that had to happen 26:42.980 --> 26:46.920 As however messy it would be but I don't think it had to be as messy as it was 26:47.640 --> 26:49.020 and I think that that 26:50.320 --> 26:53.940 At the time I speculated that the military purposefully 26:54.560 --> 26:57.640 Made a hash of it because they didn't want to go 26:57.640 --> 27:00.460 So like well, we're gonna make this as messy as possible 27:01.120 --> 27:05.000 And they did and there were afghan people, you know falling out of airplanes 27:05.820 --> 27:08.620 All, you know, it was it was madness. It was a 27:09.240 --> 27:09.720 craziness 27:10.660 --> 27:11.140 so 27:11.980 --> 27:19.140 It would be great if trump could be like, all right turning off this bigot of aid which without which ukraine cannot 27:19.900 --> 27:25.940 Hold on much longer europe is a joke. They cannot replace the aid even if they wanted to 27:26.540 --> 27:27.040 notably 27:27.880 --> 27:32.340 The the german government collapsed right after the u.s. election 27:33.380 --> 27:39.560 So schultz and I forget whatever party he has it's been governing germany for ever 27:43.140 --> 27:44.500 Called putin 27:45.300 --> 27:47.820 This is the first time since uh 27:48.400 --> 27:52.860 Since the war started and some speculate he called putin to be like 27:52.860 --> 27:57.540 Yeah, so the u.s. Is going to give the okay for these missiles and kursk 27:58.060 --> 28:02.060 We're not on board with that. Don't get mad at us. That's one speculation 28:03.180 --> 28:03.700 but 28:05.180 --> 28:07.020 No european militaries 28:07.020 --> 28:07.780 I mean 28:08.680 --> 28:15.400 I've been writing about since since, you know, the middle of last year how we're out of the cupboard is bare to quote 28:15.400 --> 28:19.940 You know nato officials themselves. We don't have much more to say to ukraine 28:20.660 --> 28:21.540 europe especially 28:22.120 --> 28:26.140 Because they've just you know been freeriding on the u.s. Since the 90s 28:27.140 --> 28:30.960 So one might hope that trump could then 28:31.620 --> 28:34.220 organize a deal where 28:35.340 --> 28:36.380 ukraine would 28:37.440 --> 28:38.080 dejore 28:39.520 --> 28:44.080 Acknowledge the annexation of the four oblasts that russia has claimed 28:45.400 --> 28:53.960 In my view, I cannot see I of course can be totally wrong. The future is radically uncertain in my view. I have a hard time envisioning 28:55.620 --> 28:57.900 Putin ending the war without 28:58.680 --> 29:04.520 Control of the four oblasts that have been officially annexed into the russian federation 29:05.140 --> 29:07.900 I I have a hard time seeing that happening 29:09.020 --> 29:12.540 Anything is possible, but I think that's going to be the minimum goal 29:13.100 --> 29:13.620 Uh 29:14.980 --> 29:16.040 Russia is winning 29:16.700 --> 29:21.060 So if russia doesn't like the deal there they can just keep pushing on and gamble 29:21.800 --> 29:28.180 As to whether view, I mean the us will just have to keep being more and more and more involved to stop ukraine from losing 29:28.780 --> 29:31.320 So you could gamble that the us won't do that 29:31.900 --> 29:34.840 Then we're i'm starting to get scared, you know 29:36.560 --> 29:42.340 It seems that what trump should do right is come in give ukraine a chance to save some face by keeping 29:42.540 --> 29:44.000 Dessa in some coastline 29:44.740 --> 29:51.000 And hey let all this other stuff go. I mean these were like 40 percent 50 percent russian ethnics anyway 29:51.740 --> 29:55.540 In a lot of these areas and those are the only areas that russia could ever hope to keep 29:55.540 --> 29:58.980 Anyway really in practical terms as if there's not like 29:59.500 --> 30:06.540 If there's a significant russian population there already these are of course cut what's what's totally never mentioned anymore is that 30:06.540 --> 30:12.980 Ukraine started this war on eastern ukraine. They were shelling cities in eastern ukraine 30:13.500 --> 30:18.620 Before the russian state became directly involved. They had started the kiev started a 30:18.620 --> 30:22.760 A civil war essentially against russian separatists in the east 30:23.350 --> 30:27.840 And then that gave russia the ability to come in and say hey, we're defending our countrymen 30:28.540 --> 30:33.000 Essentially there's the same playbook as in georgia and a couple of other places. Yes. Yes it 30:33.820 --> 30:38.940 And ukraine has just ramped up the anti russian domestic laws 30:39.640 --> 30:40.280 dealing with 30:40.280 --> 30:44.660 The ukrainian orthodox church that's affiliated with 30:45.120 --> 30:48.380 The moscow patriarchy. I think it's been straight up outlawed now 30:49.960 --> 30:54.040 Banning russian language etc. etc. etc. So 30:54.660 --> 30:56.460 The real question is is 30:57.060 --> 30:59.460 Who will be in charge of the ukrainian government? 31:00.260 --> 31:03.460 Uh because there's the hardline nationalists 31:04.260 --> 31:06.000 From eastern ukraine. I 31:06.580 --> 31:08.200 Aren't gonna want to give up anything 31:08.860 --> 31:13.720 And it's not i mean these these are the neo-nazi people. It's not 31:14.420 --> 31:16.460 crazy to think, you know, they might 31:16.460 --> 31:22.360 Drag zalinsky out behind the shed and shoot him and be like there's a new government in charge not this 31:22.900 --> 31:27.440 corrupt puppet who was secretly colluding with russia or whatever they'd say 31:28.000 --> 31:34.460 And um, I mean of course because ukraine is so corrupt. It's it's the perfect excuse because you can say 31:34.460 --> 31:40.140 Zalinsky was corrupt and profiting from the war and you know, that's why you had to be removed 31:40.720 --> 31:44.880 So it's not out of the question that that could happen that I see as being the biggest 31:46.760 --> 31:52.280 Potential hurdle is what what's possible domestically in ukraine, which by the way, I believe for the first time 31:52.280 --> 31:56.140 I just saw a poll out this week. I think or the past few days 31:56.640 --> 31:59.580 That now a slight majority of ukranians want 32:00.140 --> 32:03.940 To cut a deal. It's like 52% of this poll found 32:05.060 --> 32:05.540 That 32:06.520 --> 32:10.260 So people are recognizing the writing on the wall as it were 32:10.880 --> 32:13.880 Well, it's um, yeah, there's a lot of scholarship on this 32:13.880 --> 32:18.580 Even some like quantitative stuff, which just looks at the number of conflicts and their outcomes and all that stuff 32:19.100 --> 32:19.460 and 32:20.120 --> 32:23.180 It notes that virtually all conflicts 32:23.980 --> 32:27.400 Certainly in in the 19th century and for centuries before that 32:28.180 --> 32:29.560 In the west especially 32:30.380 --> 32:35.660 Uh, but even in conflicts in the 20th century that weren't major conflicts like world war two and stuff like that 32:35.660 --> 32:42.420 These conflicts end with negotiated settlements. I mean, this is how virtually all wars end with negotiated settlements 32:42.420 --> 32:43.320 Not not this 32:43.320 --> 32:49.000 Unconditional surrender stuff that that moralistic americans become obsessed with 32:49.000 --> 32:52.480 That whoever the u.s. Is fighting must be completely destroyed destroyed 32:52.480 --> 32:55.160 Of course, the u.s. Hasn't actually succeeded in doing much of that 32:55.780 --> 33:02.780 Since 1945, but that seems to usually be the stated purpose. That's where regime changes, right? That's essentially unconditional surrender 33:03.340 --> 33:03.820 but 33:04.420 --> 33:08.360 For people who actually care about ending bloodshed or bringing an end to wars 33:09.080 --> 33:10.740 Figuring out a diplomatic solution 33:11.400 --> 33:13.160 Wars end with negotiated settlements 33:13.160 --> 33:17.760 So it seems that trump could actually help himself politically by coming in and saying hey 33:17.760 --> 33:24.520 I struck a deal. We ended the bloodshed in ukraine ukraine still exists ukraine has a port on the black sea 33:25.920 --> 33:27.480 And the russians 33:28.660 --> 33:31.740 Were able to get these territories. Yeah, that was an ideal 33:31.740 --> 33:38.560 But that's all that's all in these this mists of an internal conflict that began years ago and 33:39.120 --> 33:43.400 Let's not forget that kiev was was fighting these people before russia invaded 33:43.400 --> 33:46.300 He could really start to paint a picture of the complexity of it 33:46.300 --> 33:48.420 But in the end I ended the conflict 33:48.960 --> 33:51.020 And ukraine has sovereignty again 33:51.020 --> 33:57.820 Yay me and then poodin can go back and say hey look we now have all the coastline of the sea of azov. We have water for 33:58.440 --> 33:58.840 Crimea 33:59.740 --> 34:04.920 We have a land bridge to Crimea and then we helped out our russian speaking patriots 34:05.340 --> 34:08.820 In eastern ukraine and then that's it. I mean 34:10.400 --> 34:11.820 That's all that needs to happen 34:12.460 --> 34:14.460 And and of course, I mean it would be nonsense 34:15.580 --> 34:19.380 Spare me any nonsense about ukrainian democracy because that was 34:20.080 --> 34:20.960 This is a 34:21.440 --> 34:28.260 Country that suspended all elections might not remind you by the way the united states had an election in the midst of its civil war 34:28.260 --> 34:32.660 But ukrainians tell us that no you can't have any sort of election when we're at war 34:32.660 --> 34:36.240 Which only in ukraine, which of course couldn't care less about 34:36.860 --> 34:40.800 Freedom or democracy because they outlaw free speech. They outlaw freedom of religion 34:40.800 --> 34:45.180 This is what americans are supposed to be dying for no, thanks. So yeah, just end of the conflict 34:45.760 --> 34:51.580 But yeah, I agree probably better to let the ukrainian save some face on this rather than have just like a total collapse 34:51.580 --> 34:59.020 Because I think that would just make nato more paranoid and crazed and I don't know what the polls would do in response to that 35:00.960 --> 35:05.760 Especially if russians, I guess started occupying western ukraine that would that would make 35:06.320 --> 35:08.900 Poland go yeah, I I can't see that ever happening 35:09.540 --> 35:17.780 Really, but that would be a long that would be the the absolute extreme. Yeah, I mean to me the word. I mean I 35:18.960 --> 35:22.180 Yeah, there's various degrees of russian victory 35:23.780 --> 35:28.020 I think if the u.s. Does not get involved 35:30.120 --> 35:35.200 I I mean and it's just the ukrainian military collapses 35:35.860 --> 35:39.000 It would not be out of the question. I think for 35:39.700 --> 35:42.060 Russia to impose a puppet government 35:43.000 --> 35:49.340 On what's left of ukraine under a deal with trump. I doubt that there'd be a puppet government 35:50.160 --> 35:57.980 Uh in what's left of ukraine and it's just the longer the war goes on the more doomed ukraine is 35:58.760 --> 36:03.020 It already had horrible demographics. Those have plunged into the basement 36:03.540 --> 36:05.400 Who knows how many people have been killed? 36:05.880 --> 36:10.800 Who knows how many millions have left the country and will never return because it's a bombed out ruin 36:11.800 --> 36:12.780 I mean 36:13.400 --> 36:15.600 given the state of 36:15.600 --> 36:17.860 budgets and the economy 36:18.360 --> 36:23.740 It's hard to imagine anyone wanting to pour in the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to rebuild 36:24.600 --> 36:25.200 ukraine 36:26.220 --> 36:27.220 and uh 36:27.720 --> 36:31.600 It's just it does not have a bright future really no matter what happens 36:32.300 --> 36:38.080 So the the quicker the war ends the better it will be for the continued existence of ukraine 36:38.880 --> 36:44.380 And as a people yes as a nation state. Yes, and in a way 36:44.900 --> 36:52.020 I mean, I'm not sure how smart the ukrainian nationalists are meaning the the neo nazis is what I mean 36:52.580 --> 36:54.520 uber nationalist neo nazi types 36:55.100 --> 36:57.980 But I think they should realize, you know 37:01.600 --> 37:08.700 Discretion is the better part of valor at times. This actually will greatly aid their ukrainian state building project 37:09.760 --> 37:12.400 Because the whole conflict is a result of 37:13.120 --> 37:16.860 ukraine not having exactly a unified identity 37:17.750 --> 37:25.690 uh going back for various historical reasons, you know, what is now east western ukraine was uh 37:25.690 --> 37:25.830 Uh 37:27.490 --> 37:30.070 part of poland for a very long time 37:30.070 --> 37:32.750 it only became part of ukraine really when 37:33.430 --> 37:38.370 The soviet union split poland with germany as we've talked about before 37:39.110 --> 37:39.790 um 37:40.590 --> 37:44.070 But it it really has solidified ukrainian identity 37:45.250 --> 37:52.410 They will probably continue to be a very powerful force in ukrainian politics. They can root out the russian language and 37:53.270 --> 37:53.610 the 37:53.610 --> 37:56.430 The church and all that sort of stuff 37:57.410 --> 38:02.910 That'd be if they're thinking long term, you know, and they can tell themselves. Oh, we will reclaim the donbas one day 38:03.650 --> 38:04.210 um 38:05.530 --> 38:12.450 But I don't know. I mean really it's a difficult situation for ukrainians and ukrainian leadership, especially 38:13.250 --> 38:13.810 but 38:14.730 --> 38:17.910 yeah, hopefully trump can navigate this and 38:19.430 --> 38:24.930 We're I mean cutting off the wet the u.s. Has a lot of leverage over ukraine. They're not gonna 38:25.630 --> 38:29.110 They can't keep the war up without us. So in a way 38:29.630 --> 38:34.690 It they can continue fighting, you know to the end of time if they want just without us 38:34.690 --> 38:35.890 uh, so 38:36.830 --> 38:37.530 You know 38:38.070 --> 38:44.230 People are like ukraine's a sovereign country. They can make these decisions like yeah, but we're subsidizing the whole war 38:44.230 --> 38:47.730 So sure they cannot listen to us, but we cannot 38:48.390 --> 38:48.870 You know 38:49.470 --> 38:51.350 Keep giving them gajillions of dollars 38:52.350 --> 38:54.650 Well, let's talk about the middle east now 38:55.270 --> 38:56.710 and uh, I foresee 38:57.610 --> 39:01.210 That is a far less dynamic situation in terms of us 39:02.010 --> 39:02.610 involvement 39:03.350 --> 39:04.550 and policy 39:05.650 --> 39:10.710 It's actually really difficult to see what trump would do differently from the current administration 39:10.710 --> 39:13.650 Obviously, right. He's gotten tons of money from 39:14.970 --> 39:19.390 pro-israel individuals and organizations certainly has not expressed 39:20.730 --> 39:24.810 Any misgivings about giving tons of aid to the state of israel 39:24.810 --> 39:29.890 Although I mean the the good news the only good news in there is that he plays up the whole 39:29.890 --> 39:32.710 Hey, I'm gonna strike a deal and we're gonna end the conflicts. I'm out 39:32.710 --> 39:38.910 Okay, but does ending the conflict mean in the the total ethnic cleansing of the west bank and gaza 39:39.620 --> 39:44.510 Because we're we're even moving it's clear the state of israel is trying to use the situation to cleanse 39:45.150 --> 39:47.610 ethnically not just gaza, but the west bank 39:48.270 --> 39:49.930 As well a lot more intervention 39:50.670 --> 39:56.470 From televieve going on there. So in southern lebanon, right? I mean this is a spreading conflict 39:56.470 --> 39:57.210 So 39:57.790 --> 40:04.050 What does victory look like for trump there? What sort of deal does he want is and was there anything different from what the 40:04.050 --> 40:05.190 Biden administration is doing 40:05.950 --> 40:11.390 Yeah, well, I mean the biden administration is just flailing around like a chicken with its head cut off 40:12.050 --> 40:15.090 And and not just flailing around but failing 40:15.890 --> 40:16.450 I mean 40:16.450 --> 40:17.290 the 40:18.850 --> 40:19.410 Puthi 40:19.990 --> 40:23.590 I mean really there the de facto government of a big chunky Yemen 40:24.570 --> 40:28.650 Has you know now basically controlled of the red sea 40:29.270 --> 40:34.390 Despite all the u.s. Efforts. I forget. I think we've spent a few billion bucks now bombing 40:35.350 --> 40:35.930 uh 40:37.710 --> 40:41.890 Yemen it's not done anything. I mean and let's remind 40:42.690 --> 40:48.810 Everyone Saudi Arabia was bombing Yemen for like eight or nine years. I don't even know at this point 40:48.810 --> 40:51.670 they've been bombing Yemen for ages and 40:52.390 --> 40:56.090 The houthis are still there and they're still there after we've given it a try 40:56.660 --> 41:00.650 So short of some sort of very costly punitive expedition 41:00.650 --> 41:05.510 Where you send in, you know, a marine corps division or something to, you know 41:06.310 --> 41:07.910 Get bogged down and 41:08.970 --> 41:10.630 Another intractable war 41:11.430 --> 41:13.110 I mean, that's how things are 41:13.990 --> 41:14.590 fortunately 41:15.190 --> 41:18.790 Not much us shipping goes through the red sea in the Suez canal. So 41:19.390 --> 41:23.510 If it's an intolerable situation, maybe other countries can deal with it, which 41:24.170 --> 41:27.790 It's just a the state of of the european militaries 41:27.790 --> 41:33.590 There was I if i'm not mistaken there was like a german frigate or something in 41:34.350 --> 41:35.410 In the pacific 41:36.650 --> 41:38.470 And it returned 41:40.210 --> 41:44.990 Uh not through it returned going down around south africa 41:45.750 --> 41:47.950 It did not go through the red sea 41:47.950 --> 41:54.570 This is I mean we're at this, you know european navies are like we don't want to risk going through the red sea 41:55.330 --> 41:56.030 this is 41:56.760 --> 41:59.830 I mean embarrassing that it's wild but 42:00.930 --> 42:03.070 It's not the america's problem 42:03.070 --> 42:03.630 so 42:04.400 --> 42:10.910 Really it'd be hard for trump to do worse unless he escalates and starts sending troops in or something 42:11.520 --> 42:11.890 so 42:12.420 --> 42:17.190 There was talk in the american conservative magazine a few weeks before the election 42:17.680 --> 42:21.490 There was a report that israeli government officials were a bit 42:21.490 --> 42:26.570 perturbed at trump winning because they worried that he would sort of force them to 42:27.370 --> 42:33.310 Negotiate and end to the conflict before they can accomplish everything they want to accomplish which 42:33.990 --> 42:36.890 Short of yeah trying to somehow get the gossians to leave 42:37.390 --> 42:41.730 It's not really clear what they're trying to accomplish. They're just flailing around with us support 42:41.730 --> 42:44.570 And this is something mirshimer has pointed out 42:45.350 --> 42:47.930 Then in contrast to previous israeli wars 42:48.750 --> 42:50.370 israel today is 42:51.470 --> 42:54.630 Extremely dependent on u.s. Support and aid 42:55.570 --> 43:00.950 They were able to wage, you know sort of rather rapid crushing victories and also a defeat 43:01.670 --> 43:02.310 but 43:04.050 --> 43:06.810 Without the u.s. Basically, you know 43:07.890 --> 43:14.850 Having to you know without it being a crisis of you know a disaster if the u.s. Was not you know 43:15.730 --> 43:17.630 Being the sugar daddy as it were 43:18.350 --> 43:23.450 Um, so it's possible trump as you said could be we got to cut a deal. We got to end this 43:23.450 --> 43:25.390 There's already talk that hezbollah 43:25.890 --> 43:29.010 And i ran are like, okay. Yeah, we'll cut a ceasefire in lebanon 43:29.010 --> 43:31.130 We have to see how that plays out 43:31.810 --> 43:33.950 We have to see what happens with iran 43:34.650 --> 43:37.370 There are a lot of iran hawks 43:38.030 --> 43:39.670 Even people who i think are 43:40.250 --> 43:42.910 Surprisingly pretty good like pete hegseth 43:43.810 --> 43:44.330 i'm 43:44.330 --> 43:46.450 Actually pleasantly surprised with uh 43:46.450 --> 43:48.870 When he was first when he was announced on twitter 43:49.530 --> 43:55.710 I thought like is this a joke like a parody of because it's like, you know, trump is always watching fox and friends and stuff 43:56.450 --> 43:58.350 And i was like wow, that's wild 43:58.350 --> 44:02.330 But then it was pointed out that hegseth is on the record supporting 44:02.870 --> 44:07.030 Uh defend the guard which is to me wild i 44:07.650 --> 44:13.210 Someone nominated to be secretary of defense who supports defend the guard which for those who aren't familiar 44:13.210 --> 44:20.690 Basically would prevent the feds from calling up and deploying the national guard to combat zones without an actual declaration of war 44:21.690 --> 44:25.270 So then the national guard if this had been in place wouldn't have been 44:26.050 --> 44:28.070 Deployed in any war since world war two 44:28.710 --> 44:29.270 um 44:30.010 --> 44:30.390 anyway 44:31.070 --> 44:37.770 He he's hawkish on iran though, but um and we'll have to talk come back again to him for china, uh, but 44:38.870 --> 44:45.230 I don't i mean trump's comments trump seems to recognize we can't fight a war right now. It'd be disastrous 44:45.230 --> 44:49.230 No one wants it. We're broke. So i don't think he's gonna 44:50.450 --> 44:56.010 Return to be like a maximum pressure on iran. We're gonna break them in an institute regime change 44:56.010 --> 44:59.150 As we just said he's on the record of not wanting to do that 45:00.050 --> 45:00.570 um 45:01.130 --> 45:03.530 The u.s. Forces are scheduled to leave iraq 45:04.070 --> 45:11.190 I believe if i'm not mistaken under the current agreement, but that keeps getting extended and stuff, but it'd be nice if we got out of there 45:12.010 --> 45:17.670 Uh trump would be foolish in my opinion to not ensure we leave syria after he was defied openly 45:18.250 --> 45:20.070 in wanting to do that last time 45:20.770 --> 45:21.330 so 45:22.310 --> 45:26.130 Really scaling back to you know perspective and 45:26.730 --> 45:30.990 Marginal improvements if we leave iraq and we leave syria 45:31.750 --> 45:35.990 Big improvements that should be celebrated even though it's not 45:36.750 --> 45:37.750 we've not you know 45:38.510 --> 45:41.170 fixed the situation by any means 45:42.050 --> 45:43.730 tangible valuable progress 45:44.250 --> 45:47.470 Well in one piece of good news that is beyond trump's control really 45:47.470 --> 45:55.490 Uh, it doesn't have anything to do with our election is the fact that the saudis don't seem to be applying maximum pressure anymore against the iranians 45:56.030 --> 45:59.010 Uh, because of course the saudis and the iranians are 45:59.730 --> 46:03.530 Traditional enemies really for control over the persian gulf 46:04.210 --> 46:04.910 and in 46:04.910 --> 46:09.090 Recent years the saudis there seems to be some 46:09.090 --> 46:10.810 Some detente there 46:11.410 --> 46:14.310 between the saudis and in the iranians 46:14.310 --> 46:20.550 And that that seems to be bad for well, they they reopened they reestablished relations between the two countries 46:20.550 --> 46:22.610 Which had been in terrible shape for a long long time 46:23.250 --> 46:28.210 And it just looks like there's less pressure coming down from the saudis to box in the iranians, which 46:29.010 --> 46:31.830 Looks to me like it's been saudi policy for a long time 46:32.410 --> 46:38.630 And that was one thing that allied the saudis with the state of israel too, right? Was that they both are 46:39.850 --> 46:42.610 Against iran, but it seems that there's now less 46:43.330 --> 46:46.790 Saudi opposition to iran. That's not good for israel 46:47.330 --> 46:54.310 Uh, it's good for us though because now they're there's one less place that's applying a lot of pressure on the american regime to 46:55.690 --> 46:56.950 Fight iran about 46:56.950 --> 47:02.390 Um, I don't know how big that changes, but there's certainly been some evidence of a change there 47:02.950 --> 47:05.470 Yeah, I am I'm not sure what to think 47:05.470 --> 47:10.630 Saudi arabia has really been pushing for the us to extend a official security guarantee 47:10.630 --> 47:14.710 Which would be terrible ridiculous. Yes, don't do it 47:16.450 --> 47:16.930 Um 47:17.690 --> 47:21.370 Well, I mean that's always been kind of implied since the 70s 47:21.370 --> 47:26.130 Was a security guarantee, but I guess now they want more explicit 47:26.130 --> 47:31.950 Yeah, they want which is yeah, which I agree horrible idea and I will note 47:32.990 --> 47:37.690 That the head of the saudi arabian sovereign wealth fund, I believe 47:39.530 --> 47:40.090 Is 47:40.830 --> 47:42.430 Was at the 47:43.230 --> 47:44.750 UFC fight with trump 47:45.910 --> 47:49.030 There's a picture of him like sitting right next to trump. So 47:49.750 --> 47:54.950 We have to see what happens, you know, uh, jared kushner will not be around is my understanding 47:54.950 --> 47:57.850 He engineered that abram's accord thing 47:58.720 --> 48:00.910 It seems that the arab world is 48:02.260 --> 48:05.050 Well before the current goings on 48:05.600 --> 48:09.770 Was softening on israel even to some extent they 48:10.220 --> 48:12.690 Still are jordan shot down missiles 48:13.340 --> 48:14.910 Iranian missiles in the first 48:14.910 --> 48:17.090 Iranian missile attack on israel 48:18.660 --> 48:21.830 But the situation in gaza and the west bank is 48:22.330 --> 48:28.750 Of course a thorn in their side, although it doesn't seem that any of the arabian governments like the palestinians really 48:29.850 --> 48:36.990 Well, that's more of an issue with elites versus the population right so the bloodshed in gaza and west bank is bad for the 48:37.750 --> 48:43.330 The normal people the ordinary people in all of these arab countries hate that the elites. I don't think care 48:43.910 --> 48:49.290 Right, so I guess it's a question of how much pressure can normal people put on the elites in these countries in some countries some 48:49.790 --> 48:57.730 In other countries that are, you know, they're military dictatorships essentially. I mean, saudi arab obviously couldn't care less about what regular people think 48:59.350 --> 49:06.930 So I mean that could take a long time to filter upward. So who knows what the time frame is on that? Yeah, and um, 49:07.730 --> 49:09.950 so yeah, it's 49:09.950 --> 49:15.470 Room for improvement that I think is possible. Maybe a good way to phrase phrase the middle east 49:16.100 --> 49:21.050 But yes, I think the the lesson here is don't expect any major changes in course 49:21.950 --> 49:25.870 On the middle east at all although there are changes going on but 49:25.870 --> 49:30.270 And and part of it actually which will lead segue to the next theater 49:30.900 --> 49:33.330 Part of it will depend on what happens in east asia 49:34.230 --> 49:37.590 Because as we did an episode ago one or two 49:38.380 --> 49:39.010 months ago 49:39.690 --> 49:41.090 You know, we have no 49:41.090 --> 49:47.130 Uh, I don't know if we do now, but we for a period of time at least we had no aircraft carriers 49:47.550 --> 49:52.250 In east asia because we were rerouting everything that could float to the middle east 49:52.830 --> 49:57.090 Because of tension with iran and as well as real yada yada yada yada 49:58.030 --> 50:02.330 So it really depends on on if trump actually 50:03.170 --> 50:09.630 Will implement the long talked about but obviously not happening pivot to asia 50:11.110 --> 50:11.910 and 50:13.010 --> 50:13.490 um 50:14.210 --> 50:17.130 So yeah, let's talk about that. So obviously no, uh, 50:17.570 --> 50:24.670 No significant pivot to asia that I can see although certainly no lack of talk about china 50:25.570 --> 50:26.070 and 50:26.470 --> 50:27.850 trump wanting to pursue 50:28.690 --> 50:29.170 further 50:30.670 --> 50:32.250 trade war elements 50:32.830 --> 50:34.830 With the chinese regime there 50:35.910 --> 50:38.990 They don't really state in any sort of explicit way 50:38.990 --> 50:42.650 In fact that what's really behind this is the yeah, the u.s. Wants to maintain 50:43.170 --> 50:48.790 Or grow global hegemony. They want to impose at least some level of american power in east asia 50:48.790 --> 50:50.690 And the u.s. Has 50:51.970 --> 50:56.010 China boxed in in a variety of ways right the u.s. Has been expanding its alliance 50:57.230 --> 50:58.230 activity with 50:59.350 --> 51:03.750 philippines recently and of course the u.s. Is long term 51:04.270 --> 51:05.730 ally with japan 51:06.670 --> 51:07.170 and 51:07.170 --> 51:10.090 South korea and then unofficially 51:10.780 --> 51:13.830 In a more vague capacity with taiwan 51:14.760 --> 51:22.190 So you don't hear much really in terms of explicit talk about taiwan or guarantees of defense for taiwan and that sort of thing 51:22.190 --> 51:26.910 But it's the posture the general posture of this administration is anti china 51:27.420 --> 51:34.410 But i'm not quite sure beyond a bunch of talks about trade and who knows him how much of that is even performative 51:34.410 --> 51:37.250 I don't even who knows what he's telling she behind the scenes 51:38.130 --> 51:43.150 About what relations what trump and vision's relations are between the u.s. And china 51:43.750 --> 51:46.070 So it seems there's a general anti-beijing posture 51:46.070 --> 51:52.150 But it's it's unclear very little has been being clearly said about how that is going to look over the next four years 51:52.730 --> 51:55.190 Yeah, i will if i am not mistaken 51:56.150 --> 51:56.670 uh 51:57.710 --> 52:02.870 In 20 well 2017 i guess or maybe it was 2016 it was either 52:02.870 --> 52:06.090 It was either in the transition period or 52:06.090 --> 52:08.930 Shortly after he came to office trump took 52:09.480 --> 52:11.230 a phone call from i believe 52:12.180 --> 52:12.510 the 52:13.270 --> 52:14.910 Former president of 52:15.680 --> 52:20.490 Think president i can't even remember now in taiwan siging when i believe her name was 52:21.140 --> 52:22.570 uh trump took her call 52:23.140 --> 52:26.190 Which has not happened i don't know since reagan or something 52:26.870 --> 52:27.530 um 52:28.510 --> 52:30.650 So that was noteworthy 52:31.350 --> 52:31.790 um 52:32.610 --> 52:36.070 A lot will depend i mean a a staffing 52:38.410 --> 52:43.630 My understanding of the staffing process right now i guess is that they're starting at the top 52:44.270 --> 52:46.650 You know and then they staff their way down 52:47.390 --> 52:54.570 One thing to look out for is where if l l bridge colby where he ends up he was in the first trump admin 52:56.110 --> 52:57.850 And he is 53:00.470 --> 53:01.630 More uh 53:01.630 --> 53:05.650 He wants more of a forward posture in asia than i would like 53:06.440 --> 53:10.730 But he is very on the record. He does not want war with china 53:10.730 --> 53:15.110 And that basically he wants to support taiwan a lot 53:15.740 --> 53:22.690 He wants the us to be involved in east asia, but he does not want you know saber rattling lets you know 53:23.490 --> 53:27.810 Will nuke china if they invade iran or i mean taiwan or anything like that 53:28.610 --> 53:29.250 He is 53:29.770 --> 53:33.270 An immense proponent of the pivot to east asia 53:33.990 --> 53:35.490 So we have to see what he does 53:35.490 --> 53:42.330 If he ends up in the administration, which i would bet money he will in some deputy secretary position 53:44.750 --> 53:47.430 Similarly to circle back to pete hegseth 53:48.850 --> 53:53.990 He is all sees on video saying basically that the u.s. Would lose a war with china 53:56.010 --> 53:57.270 That is 53:59.390 --> 54:02.350 Paradoxically encouraging to hear someone say that 54:03.020 --> 54:04.770 uh because it 54:05.260 --> 54:05.930 you know 54:05.930 --> 54:09.690 With the ukraine situation, there's this just 54:10.310 --> 54:12.230 delusional thinking of like material 54:13.030 --> 54:14.210 Factors don't matter 54:14.210 --> 54:18.210 You know, we we constantly reference mesis is 54:19.370 --> 54:20.010 1918 54:20.930 --> 54:25.430 Paper on war financing, you know war can only be waged with present goods 54:26.010 --> 54:30.770 It seems that you know the the idea of scarcity as we've harped on also the 54:31.510 --> 54:32.070 You know 54:32.850 --> 54:38.830 Our official strategy is that nothing is beyond us capabilities, you know, obviously conflicts with reality 54:38.830 --> 54:42.790 So to have the secretary of defense who recognizes that reality 54:43.710 --> 54:45.630 Huge marginal improvement 54:46.190 --> 54:47.170 By no means 54:47.670 --> 54:49.290 Does that mean the work is done? 54:49.850 --> 54:53.550 But that is encouraging to hear because it it also 54:54.870 --> 54:55.550 you know 54:56.470 --> 54:59.590 Hopefully that recognition would lead to 55:00.930 --> 55:03.730 favoring a de-escalatory policy 55:03.730 --> 55:11.310 In with regards to china if you recognize g if we start an honest to goodness war over taiwan 55:11.310 --> 55:15.670 We might lose if you understand that then you will 55:16.770 --> 55:17.970 Approach the situation 55:19.190 --> 55:19.630 much 55:20.550 --> 55:23.430 More in tune with reality and aware of the risks 55:23.430 --> 55:26.370 Yeah, and those guys are just talking in terms of a tactical 55:27.130 --> 55:31.510 Loss, I think too, right there. They're they're talking about losing militarily 55:31.510 --> 55:35.430 When you look at the largest strategic picture, right? What does that do to the u.s economy? 55:36.190 --> 55:38.190 Oh, it'd be right. It's just devastating 55:38.930 --> 55:42.030 And I mean talking about this whole like coming to reality thing 55:42.650 --> 55:48.670 I sent you right a while back this this short quote from mirshimer. I think it was this was taiwan ease tv 55:48.670 --> 55:49.590 I guess 55:50.110 --> 55:53.010 He was in china. I think oh, he was in china. Okay 55:53.010 --> 55:54.650 I just got back from china 55:54.650 --> 55:58.250 He uh, he was being interviewed and so here's what he says 55:58.730 --> 56:05.890 He's now. I of course criticized mirshimer. I like him, but uh, he's been too much of a china hawk historically for me 56:06.550 --> 56:08.490 And he's a different type of realist for me 56:08.490 --> 56:15.250 So it's not quite the anti interventionist I prefer but of course we quote him a lot because he's an insightful guy and not insane and 56:15.750 --> 56:21.210 Is certainly I'd rather have him in charge of america for a policy than pretty much everybody who actually is 56:21.830 --> 56:26.250 So but he said he's he he he signals a change in mind 56:26.250 --> 56:29.510 I think on china a little bit recently when he says in this interview 56:30.030 --> 56:33.850 The us cannot do much at this point to slow down chinese economic growth 56:34.410 --> 56:40.810 Uh, and he says he would bet that the chinese will overcome the american effort to damage the chinese economy more than the american economy 56:40.810 --> 56:43.670 Is damaged as a result of these sanctions and tariffs 56:44.230 --> 56:46.570 What he's saying is is basically that his 56:47.190 --> 56:52.130 His efforts he's talked a lot about containing china and now he's expressing doubts 56:52.890 --> 56:53.850 that the us 56:54.590 --> 57:00.270 Can really keep that up that the us as one person put it to the and I don't think these are 57:00.270 --> 57:01.370 Meersheimer's words 57:02.110 --> 57:04.850 That the us has kind of passed the point of no return on 57:05.260 --> 57:06.110 containing china 57:06.670 --> 57:13.830 That is in using trade policy to try and bring china under control to put china under america's thumb 57:14.590 --> 57:17.250 Economically he's doubtful that that's really possible 57:17.950 --> 57:22.990 And of course you have to remember that there's a whole big world out there and the us 57:24.310 --> 57:24.930 damaging 57:25.970 --> 57:27.970 Chinese trade relations with the us 57:28.630 --> 57:29.670 that that 57:30.210 --> 57:31.730 That doesn't necessarily 57:32.490 --> 57:39.490 Do much to destroy the chinese economy because there are other markets out there and we can see how the chinese have been pursuing 57:40.110 --> 57:45.170 Other markets, right? They get 90 percent or 90 percent of iran's oil goes to china 57:45.170 --> 57:49.710 Which also shows how delusional some recent comments have been about how 57:49.710 --> 57:54.130 Um, the trump is going to impose more sanctions on iranian oil. Okay 57:54.610 --> 58:01.290 Well 90 of it goes to china so good luck with that and of course the bonds between china and russia have been really really growing 58:01.290 --> 58:04.270 So the question is okay. How much can the us really hurt china? 58:05.390 --> 58:11.890 And I guess the whole point of is hurt china more than the us economy is hurt by these trade wars 58:11.890 --> 58:14.230 And meersheimer now seems doubtful about that 58:14.230 --> 58:21.370 Even though this is a person who's perfectly happy about containing china and the prospect of doing so if it could be done 58:21.790 --> 58:25.370 So I I see that as a pretty big warning to 58:26.250 --> 58:33.150 People who may be going forward continue to live in this world where they think that the us has some sort of trump card against china 58:33.150 --> 58:37.550 And its economy, maybe it doesn't have one after all 58:38.170 --> 58:39.990 and that may be uh 58:39.990 --> 58:46.550 Happy and more pleasant relations would be better strategy going forward with china. Yeah, I'm not 58:47.810 --> 58:52.730 I I'm not sure to what extent he's referencing just economic containment 58:53.470 --> 58:54.030 um 58:54.650 --> 58:56.830 I mean it's sometimes with meersheimer 58:56.830 --> 58:59.250 It's difficult to know when he is 58:59.250 --> 59:06.730 Pronosticating as to this this is what will happen because of the structure of the international system and this is what should be done 59:07.470 --> 59:13.790 Uh, it's sometimes it's hard to tell with china, but he I believe he would still say the us will work to 59:14.490 --> 59:16.570 Balance against china's rise 59:17.330 --> 59:17.930 um 59:18.770 --> 59:20.290 I do I 59:20.830 --> 59:25.770 Personally, I don't know what to think of the future of the chinese economy. It's you know, riven with 59:26.510 --> 59:26.830 government 59:27.850 --> 59:35.010 Planning and all sorts of bad things and even when it comes to their technical abilities. I have heard very 59:35.630 --> 59:36.610 contrasting things 59:37.350 --> 59:39.930 In terms of what they're actually able to do 59:40.730 --> 59:41.930 but um 59:43.790 --> 59:46.590 I do think it's we can can 59:47.930 --> 59:52.850 Have a bad policy of balancing against china that does not result in 59:53.550 --> 59:53.870 war 59:54.590 --> 01:00:00.490 Uh, and to me the best way to do that as I advocated way back when in my paper on us taiwan strategy 01:00:01.130 --> 01:00:05.430 Is to lead from behind so far behind. We're on the other side of the planet 01:00:06.110 --> 01:00:07.010 Let japan 01:00:07.650 --> 01:00:12.790 Let india let these huge wealthy countries that have an interest in 01:00:13.590 --> 01:00:15.370 Not being dominated by china 01:00:16.090 --> 01:00:17.210 do the heavy work 01:00:17.990 --> 01:00:22.810 And uh, really, I suppose it comes down to an academic question 01:00:22.810 --> 01:00:28.710 What might say between offensive and defensive realism as to, uh 01:00:30.090 --> 01:00:33.170 What uh, what china will accept 01:00:33.990 --> 01:00:37.530 Meersheimer always said I mean he's told his story so many times about 01:00:37.980 --> 01:00:42.850 And very amusingly because he just came back from china where he was like 01:00:43.520 --> 01:00:48.010 I tell the chinese, you know, if I was their national security advisor, I'd do x y and z 01:00:48.700 --> 01:00:52.230 You know, and that's push the us beyond the second island chain 01:00:52.870 --> 01:00:54.710 Well, I don't think china 01:00:56.090 --> 01:01:00.290 As we've talked about before china is domestically unstable 01:01:01.170 --> 01:01:05.750 And it's not going to be easy or cheap to do that 01:01:05.750 --> 01:01:11.670 So if china can accept sort of a status quo of taiwan is only 01:01:12.610 --> 01:01:14.350 De facto independent 01:01:15.230 --> 01:01:17.410 I mean we're taiwan to declare independence 01:01:18.130 --> 01:01:22.750 You know head for the bunkers, but uh, if china can accept that 01:01:23.590 --> 01:01:26.450 If there can be some sort of uh 01:01:28.910 --> 01:01:30.190 Reproachment between 01:01:31.010 --> 01:01:36.050 The us and china in terms of we are competing, but we're not 01:01:36.610 --> 01:01:42.710 Deadly enemies some sort of shift in the vibe one might say I can really see things going well 01:01:43.610 --> 01:01:46.270 What would really be great 01:01:47.090 --> 01:01:48.690 But is unlikely to happen 01:01:49.410 --> 01:01:54.010 Uh, I mean really this this is like the somehow achieving, you know 01:01:54.010 --> 01:01:56.310 105 on the test 01:01:57.650 --> 01:02:02.910 If and I don't think I mean just it's just if anyone could do it trump maybe could do it 01:02:02.910 --> 01:02:08.890 I don't think he can though, but if he could really rebuild relations with russia and pull russia away from china 01:02:09.650 --> 01:02:11.790 I do think if we look to the future 01:02:12.330 --> 01:02:14.130 There will be many books written 01:02:15.330 --> 01:02:16.370 many dissertations 01:02:16.950 --> 01:02:17.470 on 01:02:18.890 --> 01:02:20.350 The bizarro world 01:02:20.980 --> 01:02:27.950 Of russia and china being aligned together and the disasters the foolish mistakes the madness 01:02:28.750 --> 01:02:33.370 that engulfed us policymakers to lead to the current situation 01:02:34.160 --> 01:02:41.970 Because it is not it is not a natural state of affairs. It is bizarre that russia and china are growing closer 01:02:42.630 --> 01:02:43.290 and 01:02:44.120 --> 01:02:46.210 If russia were to be pulled away from china 01:02:47.130 --> 01:02:51.350 Well, that really threatens china's ability to 01:02:52.370 --> 01:02:58.530 Engage in rampant military expansion were it to want to which I don't think it's necessarily 01:02:59.170 --> 01:03:02.590 Eager to do it is expanding its blue water navy 01:03:03.350 --> 01:03:06.070 But you could also say it's doing that because 01:03:06.930 --> 01:03:09.190 Of the u.s. Threatening it 01:03:09.190 --> 01:03:10.110 um 01:03:11.130 --> 01:03:15.470 But I mean the china is as you said dependent on 01:03:16.210 --> 01:03:18.310 A lot of iranian oil etc. etc 01:03:19.230 --> 01:03:22.210 There the strait of malacca 01:03:22.780 --> 01:03:24.490 Sort of in malaysia area 01:03:25.280 --> 01:03:27.810 Is where you know huge percentage of 01:03:27.810 --> 01:03:29.790 Imports to china go through 01:03:30.530 --> 01:03:35.270 And it would not be difficult for india and the u.s. Or whoever 01:03:36.080 --> 01:03:36.390 to 01:03:37.970 --> 01:03:40.430 You know instantly shut that off 01:03:41.090 --> 01:03:46.130 And then china's in trouble. Oh look here's this giant eurasian spanning 01:03:46.750 --> 01:03:49.870 Minor great power with lots of oil and natural gas 01:03:51.210 --> 01:03:53.910 Uh, they could make it potentially 01:03:54.850 --> 01:03:55.390 um 01:03:56.430 --> 01:03:56.970 So 01:03:57.670 --> 01:04:01.450 That's that's sort of like the bonus points. It'd be great if that could happen 01:04:01.450 --> 01:04:04.050 I think it would lead to a de-escalation 01:04:04.850 --> 01:04:06.750 Of affairs in east asia 01:04:07.490 --> 01:04:12.690 That might be something for you know the president in 10 or 20 years to try doing but 01:04:14.250 --> 01:04:18.790 Yes, it would require I think for it to happen faster would require a significant amount of american 01:04:19.650 --> 01:04:21.230 public public opinion 01:04:21.970 --> 01:04:22.750 to change 01:04:23.630 --> 01:04:27.150 Now that could be accelerated by significant changes in american 01:04:27.870 --> 01:04:28.710 economic prospects 01:04:29.290 --> 01:04:32.950 Right if if there's one thing I've witnessed more than once it's that when your 01:04:33.670 --> 01:04:36.930 Domestic economic situation turns very dire 01:04:37.600 --> 01:04:41.630 The population loses a whole lot of interest in foreign wars 01:04:42.280 --> 01:04:42.550 Yes 01:04:43.320 --> 01:04:48.890 For now the regime gets interested in foreign wars because I see this is a way to burnish their popularity or to prop up their 01:04:48.890 --> 01:04:50.270 their own regime and so on but 01:04:50.940 --> 01:04:51.210 the 01:04:51.210 --> 01:04:52.410 The population 01:04:52.980 --> 01:04:57.670 In general normal people lose a whole lot of interest in the the glories of foreign intervention 01:04:58.230 --> 01:05:03.510 Uh when they're having trouble paying for their groceries and I see I think you see a little bit of that now 01:05:04.470 --> 01:05:10.510 But if the economy got significantly worse we get into the middle of a big uh big recession 01:05:11.250 --> 01:05:15.370 Right now. I don't know how bad the next recession is going to be. Uh, who knows 01:05:16.030 --> 01:05:19.730 That would affect it, but I think you would need a larger overall decline 01:05:19.730 --> 01:05:23.830 I think to really changed and motivate a a real turn on 01:05:24.450 --> 01:05:28.970 On that subject. I've not had a chance to read it. It's I think several hundred pages 01:05:28.970 --> 01:05:36.070 But I've seen excerpts from it the the annual us china economic and security of review commission annual report came out 01:05:37.170 --> 01:05:41.190 And um, so noteworthy things I've seen people have pulled from it 01:05:42.130 --> 01:05:44.730 One it says we might lose a war with china 01:05:45.310 --> 01:05:49.330 So that's an encouraging sign to recognize that 01:05:49.870 --> 01:05:51.050 But then it has 01:05:51.700 --> 01:05:53.670 Uh few key recommendations 01:05:54.510 --> 01:05:59.250 And this is just interesting. I'm not exactly sure what my thoughts 01:06:00.000 --> 01:06:06.410 Well, I know what my thoughts are on the specific recommendation, but the number one recommendation is basically to 01:06:07.290 --> 01:06:11.650 Marshall all of the country's resources to build a machine god 01:06:12.990 --> 01:06:14.650 I I'm not kidding 01:06:15.370 --> 01:06:21.170 The the number one recommendation is to institute a Manhattan project like program 01:06:21.670 --> 01:06:27.070 To build agi artificial general intelligence, which is an ai that's better at doing 01:06:27.890 --> 01:06:28.530 anything 01:06:29.250 --> 01:06:30.570 than a human is 01:06:31.210 --> 01:06:31.850 So 01:06:32.670 --> 01:06:38.230 I definitely don't want the government to build a machine god. I'm not sure exactly what if 01:06:38.230 --> 01:06:43.210 How ai regulation should be done if it should be done, but I don't think that's a great idea 01:06:43.210 --> 01:06:45.170 But it is noteworthy 01:06:45.170 --> 01:06:47.270 That this is another aspect of 01:06:48.010 --> 01:06:49.230 china u.s 01:06:50.250 --> 01:06:54.730 Competition is that the fear is china will develop agi first 01:06:55.390 --> 01:06:58.070 And we can't allow that we have to develop it first 01:06:58.530 --> 01:07:04.090 Well, just the latest demonstration that war is the health of the state. I mean, it will look what they can use it to justify 01:07:04.630 --> 01:07:06.170 And it it is 01:07:07.610 --> 01:07:09.630 I mean part part of me 01:07:09.630 --> 01:07:14.810 I'm no computer scientist, but part of me skeptical that an actual machine consciousness 01:07:15.650 --> 01:07:17.690 Could be achieved some 01:07:18.330 --> 01:07:25.650 I I don't know enough about it to really know but that's just my i'm skeptical of how far ai could advance for various reasons 01:07:26.270 --> 01:07:28.850 But I don't think the u.s government should devote 01:07:29.490 --> 01:07:33.630 I don't know what percentage of the gdp went to the Manhattan project something like 01:07:34.310 --> 01:07:37.170 Should not do that to develop a machine god 01:07:37.170 --> 01:07:41.330 Well, of course, I mean the first thing they would want to use the machine for would be central planning 01:07:41.870 --> 01:07:49.930 So central planning to own the communists great good good strategy. Thanks. That's yeah, that's how our regime thinks 01:07:49.930 --> 01:07:52.630 Well, we're an hour in 01:07:53.710 --> 01:07:56.150 So we should probably cut it short this time 01:07:56.150 --> 01:08:00.210 Uh, so thank you zack, uh for joining me 01:08:00.210 --> 01:08:03.830 We'll know more next month as to what this administration has planned but 01:08:04.670 --> 01:08:10.850 We, uh, of course, I mean really next summer is probably when we'll probably do in a retrospective about where things headed 01:08:11.490 --> 01:08:17.410 With this administration, but we'll see how much things how much closer we are to, uh, a nuclear exchange 01:08:18.110 --> 01:08:20.170 For our december episode 01:08:20.670 --> 01:08:23.190 I don't know. Hopefully not not any closer 01:08:23.730 --> 01:08:27.490 But until then thank you all for listening to radio Rothbard 01:08:27.490 --> 01:08:30.450 Thank you zack for joining me today and we'll see you next time