Okay, we have some breaking news here out of the UK as the government is holding an emergency
Cobra meeting.
So the meeting is going on right now.
I did delay starting the stream because I was hoping it would be finished, but we'll
keep an eye on it to see if it's finished by the time we go through the stream.
But I can tell you what they are talking about now and we're going to go through a lot
of this today and it really focuses around two main points.
Number one is that they believe that the UK is going to run out of petrol.
I'm sorry.
Let me say that again.
They believe that there's going to be shortages of petrol and diesel that will result in not
just shortages, but rationing is one.
I didn't mean to say they're going to completely run out.
That's not accurate.
There will always be fuel, but there will be rationing if what has come out is accurate.
The second one that you should pay attention to is not the fuel aspect, but it's the food
aspect.
I've been following this over the last week.
I wanted to wait until I had all the data before I came out with this because I didn't
want to kind of alarm people without all the data behind it.
So we'll go through that and we'll look at what's happening with food and fertilizer
and everything around that.
I'll just say it's not good news and that's why this emergency Cobra meeting is taking
place right now.
So let's just start with the first main story here, which is out today from the Independent.
This was earlier, so they said Starmus to hold this emergency Cobra meeting over the
around war after warning that price rises are now inescapable.
So again, this is what they were talking about.
If you remember, for the last two or three weeks here, I've been saying exactly what they're
now telling the public and that it's inescapable, and this is really just simple economics.
It's supply and demand economics, very basic lesson here, but because of the confusion
and the fear and everything else that was going on, it kind of confused a lot of
people and the media and the government tried to reassure everyone that everything
is going to be OK.
But now they've got to the point where the public are realizing actually this isn't
going to be OK.
We've lost 20 percent of all the LNG production.
We've lost 10 percent of the oil production, which is just increased today.
I'll tell you about that later in the stream.
What's taken place today?
And no, it's not actually in the Middle East.
It's it's in Russia, a Ukrainian strike on Russian oil.
In fact, let me just give you a quick summary of this now.
Why did they do that?
It's because Russia was profiting and making a lot of money over the closure
of the strait.
So Ukraine actually struck it with a lot of drones.
I mean, a huge amount of drones just so they couldn't profit off the shortages.
So this now has really escalated.
So the oil supply that was already bad is now even worse.
Huge huge.
It was actually Russia's biggest refinery.
So, ladies and gentlemen, this is going to be and I've been saying this for three
or four weeks since it started now, but I'm going to keep saying it because I feel
like I'm actually getting this shift now and people are realizing that they can't
trust what they are being told on the media and that this is all going to be fine.
In fact, the media has even flipped now and telling you they're openly telling
you this isn't going to be fine.
This isn't going to be OK.
This there's going to be ripple effects of this.
You know, it's not going to be an economic collapse right at this stage,
but we're definitely going to see a massive decline in the economy.
And you've got to prepare yourself for this now because a lot of, you know,
my Friday walk and talk that I just did on Friday,
mostly positive comments, people understanding what I was explaining.
But a lot of people still not getting it, thinking it's scaremongering
and oil is going to come.
Some of the comments say oil is coming down back down to $60 a barrel.
You know, it's going to come back down in a couple of weeks,
stop scaremongering or this.
It's not scaremongering.
It's simple supply and demand economics.
You can't destroy manufacturing, LNG, oil, pipelines,
all these other things, the infrastructure and then somehow
I don't know, is it positive thinking?
I don't know.
Think that it's all going to come back online in a couple of weeks.
It's not possible.
If I'm driving my car and I park it at the supermarket and someone
comes out and destroys my car, I can't say always fine.
In a couple of hours, the car will just magically be 100 percent
OK again, and I'm going to drive it.
It doesn't work that way, ladies and gentlemen.
So, you know, you've got to try and help your friends and family
and co-workers here because they're just not getting it.
They really think all of this is just going to come back and be restored.
Wait till we get into fertilizer and all the things that around
fertilizer, which is going into farming or shall I say,
it's not going into farming right now.
So, yeah, this this was one that came out earlier and we'll come
on to the update of this, that the Prime Minister was going to meet
with senior ministers, Bank of England to discuss this conflict.
But, you know, this is this is serious.
They're telling everyone needs to be prepared for every eventuality here.
So he's chairing this emergency Cobra meeting,
but they're now saying this is inescapable senior cabinet ministers.
This is what kind of made me laugh.
We'll come on to those in a moment.
But Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England,
he's been actually very honest about it, which I do appreciate.
But they're saying now this is going to be very, very bad.
Even if they open the straight, it's not going to make much difference.
Now, the damages is done.
So a little bit of context and I want to talk into what I don't think
even think some of the social media channels have caught up with this yet.
So we know Trump gave the automator 48 hours
or he's going to destroy Iran's infrastructure.
A couple of things with that
that I don't think people really understand.
If you actually look at Iran's energy infrastructure is very different
to a lot of countries infrastructure where they might have these big power
plants that supply a large amount of energy.
Iran is very different.
It's very decentralized.
There's loads of energy infrastructure everywhere.
So, yes, you can destroy a lot of it, but you're not going to take it all out.
You're going to it's going to take a lot of strikes
to just go after one after the other after the other.
Other countries are not quite the same.
In fact, you saw the response that Iran struck Israel's
one of its main power plants, which I actually believe it was nuclear in nature.
So that, again, is not good, which comes back into what I talked about last
Wednesday, where I said at some point we're going to see that we could see
and this came out of the UN and all the other WHO and all these other things.
They're very concerned now.
They've raised the level.
They think it's going to be a nuclear event.
And even this missile, we've seen this missile hit
go over the the British base and all this other stuff.
I'm not convinced that was an Iranian ballistic missile.
I think it could have even been a false flag event trying to pull other
NATO countries into the war.
This is another theory, which I actually think could be quite, quite accurate.
But coming back, though, the 48 hour automaton.
What happened during that 48 hour automaton?
The US said one thing.
Israel started to actually strike those energy plants early.
And even though Trump didn't say anything about it,
I'm sure he wasn't happy with that because we know his tactics.
He he sometimes bluffs, as it were.
Let's just say that.
Would he have actually done it?
I don't know.
But let me loop back to the main point I'm trying to make here.
A lot of the commentators I'm seeing are saying either
Trump's having these negotiations with Iran and Iran saying he isn't.
So they're saying Iran's lying.
Other people are saying that Trump's lying and Iran's telling the truth.
Actually, I think there's a third option here.
So hear me out on this.
I think because we haven't heard from the US exactly what's happened.
I think the third option is if you think about because I was thinking
about the what Iran was saying over the weekend,
and they said that we can't really be affected because if you, you know,
in effect, take the head off the snake, another head will grow up
and, you know, things like that.
My thoughts are the US is probably speaking to
because they're not massively centralized, the Iranian infrastructure
right now in the government.
You've got the IRGC here, which is dealing with the war aspect.
You've also got cabinet ministers in different places.
So they're probably speaking to these cabinet ministers elsewhere
and negotiating. So it doesn't mean he's lying.
It doesn't mean that either party is lying.
It just it could just be that this is what's taking place,
which I think is highly, highly likely.
So now we've covered that point then.
A lot of the Iranian infrastructure was here, but it wasn't the US.
People are people again missing saying this incorrectly, saying that
the US just did it before the 48 hour deadline.
It wasn't the US.
It was actually Israel that did the strikes.
So who was on this emergency Cobra meeting?
Then you won't believe this.
It was Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband.
These probably the worst people.
Again, we need people that are, you know, when you're in a wartime economy,
which I really believe we're in now, I truly do.
You don't need people who are not that way inclined in their thinking.
OK, and that's what we've got in this room.
So Ed Miliband, he's all net zero green energy.
He said, doesn't matter what happened.
You remember this statement, doesn't matter what happened.
He won't change his response.
Well, we're in a wartime footing at the moment.
And even though we're not directly at war, we are in a kind of proxy war with.
And again, I when I say we, most of us watching, we're not involved in it,
but we've been pulled into it by default, by the leadership.
And this is a big issue, a big, big problem, because we didn't vote for this.
And we've got Russia and we've got Iran saying that at some point,
the UK is going to there's going to be a retribution, right?
The UK is going to get its comeuppance, as we would say, when I was younger.
And that they've both said this.
So it's pretty concerning.
And then you've got these leaders or these politicians who just haven't
they haven't grasped the gravity of the situation that they're getting us into.
And I even saw, I don't know if I'm going to be able to find the quote here,
but I even saw something I thought was shocking in this thing.
And they said, no, I'm not going to be able to pull it up because there's so many
hundreds of pages here.
But one of the things that he or should I say, I always start with hundreds of pages
and I whittle it right down to give you the condensed version.
And if you're not subscribed, by the way, please subscribe to the channel.
I cover geopolitics like this each week.
So one thing that they were saying was the energy bills are looked to spiral
and there's this soaring cost of energy that's going to be coming through
the economy and it's inescapable.
But they said something along the line.
This isn't on the Cobra meeting.
This was the I think it was Steve.
I can't remember who it was.
It was Steve Reed, I think it was.
And he actually said that everyone should be prepared for this.
But he basically said the answer wasn't because Ed Miliband doesn't want to do it.
To reduce the taxes on the energy, the North Sea energy companies.
He said, we'll look for alternative options.
Well, that is the solution.
You think about the UK with the North Sea.
It's already energy independent.
It's just that they've taxed it so much that you can't get the energy out.
So we're all we're doing.
It's pretty dumb.
If you think about it, it's really stupid.
All we're doing, we're still using energy.
We're just paying other countries for the energy.
And then we're taxing the North Sea energy companies in our own backyard.
And so they can't produce energy because it's not profitable at 78 percent tax.
So they're not actually producing the energy.
We're just buying it elsewhere.
It's so ridiculous.
And I really hope when we have a new change of leadership that they're
going to actually start to use this energy.
And this will be great for the UK because it will bring down all of the energy
prices because it will be domestic, it will be cheaper.
And then those energy prices then will feed into the economy, the lower prices,
which means that everything will perform a lot better production wise.
So it'll be great for the economy.
We'll save a lot of money.
So yeah, these are the people who are on this emergency meeting.
So I'm not holding out much intelligence coming out from that.
But yeah, the main thing is they're concerned about food prices
and that they're saying it's inescapable now.
So that was the main one.
So then we have the update.
So this was the update.
And again, we'll we'll see if there's been an update to the update in a moment.
But Starmer's warns there's no quick and early end to the US Iran war.
He thinks this is going to continue on.
And this was just before he went into the meeting.
Now, these are a lot of the headlines that we are seeing right now.
Let's cover some of these headlines.
Oh, and by the way, before that, I always say, forget to say,
if you haven't looked at the digital income mastery program yet,
I'll leave the link below in the description.
Please check this out.
I've done a video for you here as well so you can actually see what this is about.
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So we're still on the pre launch.
And it's about halfway through has been released of the first program.
And this will help a lot of you, especially if you are worried
about your income and rising prices and inflation that will be coming.
It'll just help you to create some income on the side from home,
work from home or work from wherever you you are.
But it's really simple.
We just we're just creating and selling digital products and services
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And then the I'm actually teaching you how to market these things
and how to sell them.
So I'm giving you the whole infrastructure.
So it's pretty simple.
But check out the video and it will explain all of it.
OK, now we've seen all of these headlines then.
Where are they? Here we go.
And these are just ramping up at the moment.
So this is just come out today.
Food shortages warning a stomach used of rushing through tax rates on the farmers.
Food prices could rise within weeks.
But the big worry is that they won't come back down.
I would agree with that statement.
I don't think they will necessarily come back down.
And then I want to go through some of the the info here.
In fact, I'll take it off the shared screen
because it's not a good quality image anyway.
So Sulfur. Here we go.
Sulfur, 45 percent of the market share Middle East.
OK, Middle East for that.
And this is the input for sulfuric acid and fertilizer production.
But let me let me just go through the industries
that are going to be affected by this in a moment.
But you've got LPG, that's your butane, your propane.
Again, 44 percent is affected by the Middle East crude oil, 34 percent helium.
Not many people are talking about this.
Critical for semiconductor production, 33 percent Middle East.
Petrochemicals, methanol, 30 percent aluminum or aluminum,
24 percent ammonia, 22 percent and then G 19 percent.
All of these things are closed down right now
in terms of what we're going to lose from the marketplace.
And you think these are crucial for
for fertilizers, they're crucial for semiconductors.
If you haven't got the the helium,
how are you going to make semiconductors with this AI race
that's going on at the moment?
Which I think, in fact, we'll talk about this another day,
maybe the Friday walk and talk.
Just be careful with AI stocks at the moment with this energy crisis.
But also in the next few years, we'll talk about this later.
I think there's going to be a massive shock to the AI stocks
when all of this needs to be replaced.
I think it's going to be a big problem.
So what industries are going to be hit then?
The list is absolutely enormous.
Agriculture, chemicals, metal processing,
batteries, commercial fuel, industrial power,
petrochemicals, semiconductors, health care, aerospace,
plastic manufacturing, textiles, consumer goods,
automation, construction, health care and pharmaceuticals,
tire and rubber production, construction, automation,
machinery, agriculture, mining.
We're already seeing that.
Utilities and power.
This just goes on and on and on.
It is not good at all.
And that's why we're seeing all of these headlines.
You know, food securities rising again,
up 12 percent for UK households as of as of what we're going through
how the Iran War could trigger a global food crisis,
which is what I talked about briefly on Friday.
But let's just look at Brent's right now.
And it's very interesting that we're just not seeing it break.
Even though it's come down, it was a hundred and fourteen earlier.
It's still not breaking this hundred dollar line.
You know, you keep seeing the resistance here at the hundred dollar.
We've seen it twice, actually, resistance at a hundred dollars.
But but let's see.
I'm not saying it's not going to come back down.
But what I am saying is it's not going to stay down.
OK, people think it's coming down to here, 60 dollars.
Let me know in the comments how you're seeing that,
because I do not see this coming down to 60 dollars.
I just can't see how that's even going to happen.
And even if we look at the what's actually happening with the 10 percent
drop on the day, 9 percent here, this is simply because of the news
that President Trump said he was negotiating right now with Iran.
But again, there's so many parts of that.
Who is he negotiating with?
Has that person got the power to do the deal?
All you're seeing every time a tweet is put out
or whatever you want to call it these days, a post on X or whatever,
you see the drops and then it goes back up and then you see another drop.
You can only do this for so long.
The OK, I've got a short one to show you here, short video here that I want to show you.
Fertilizers, those that need to buy are hurting pretty bad
because we've had this huge dump in fertilizer prices because of this this conflict.
And, you know, with only about 30 percent of fertilizer coming through the Strait of Horaz,
that's if you divide that out per day, that's about 0.09 percent
of the world's fertilizer coming through there.
And even if the U.S. only uses 30 percent of that,
which I think is probably a really high number, that's 0.03 percent per day.
So we've only been in conflict for nearly 12 days here.
And our fertilizer costs have jumped nearly 77 percent.
That's what I wanted you to hear there.
He said fertilizer has jumped seventy seven percent.
And that's across the board because there's different fertilizers, obviously.
Another one, then China has actually stopped their fertilizer exports.
This is a big one.
And I have, again, a verified everything I tell you on the streams, I have verified.
So they've actually stopped their exports as well.
So this is yet again another.
So what I'm really trying to get out here is people are looking at things
and they're not looking at it in clusters.
You've got to look at it in clusters.
You can't just look at one thing here, one thing there and say,
oh, well, you know, this tweet went out today and oh, this is fine.
So that's dropped. You've got to look at everything.
China has now stopped the export fertilizers.
That's going to have a knock on effect.
This is going to be but it's not going to be equal across the board.
It will depend on each on each country.
But this is what I wanted to show you as well.
So this was it. This was out of bricks news.
Ukraine strikes Russia's largest oil port.
And we do have some footage of this.
Absolutely crazy, crazy scenes.
And then I wanted to show you a couple of bits
I highlighted from someone's post here.
So actually, this was the Russian port that was here.
Process up to 1.5 million barrels of oil and oil products per day.
So that's 100 million tons per year.
Now, he hasn't done the calculation here, but we can do the calculation.
If you think about how much has already sort of that we've lost, what is it?
So 20 million barrels per day is closed.
And then you add on another 1.5 million barrels.
This is what I was trying to get out earlier in the stream.
20 million plus another 1.5 plus all the other little things
that's happening at the same time.
This is really going to have another knock on effect.
So it's not just the 20 million that's been closed off.
If you just round it to say 2 million, because there's a couple of other things,
that's another 10% of the 20 million that's been closed.
This is not good at all.
So what would a global fertilizer shortage look like then?
Well, here's a couple of facts for you.
The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts nearly one third of the global fertilizer trade
because it's not just a fertilizer itself.
It's the energy input and everything else for that.
Supply constraints store millions of tonnes monthly and sharply raise global prices,
rising energy costs intensify, nitrogen fertilizer shortages
and heightened production risks and lower fertilizer access
threatens crop yields and food security across key regions.
So it's roughly 30 to 35% of urea exports and 20 to 30% of ammonia exports
come from the region that's currently in conflict.
It's also a key exporter of sulfur, which is also heavily used in fertilizer.
So this is going to have a knock on effect.
But they've also stored an estimated four million tonnes
of fertilizer trade per month on top of everything else.
And you've got to think, it's not like energy, it's not like oil.
There is no strategic fertilizer reserve.
It's just not something that countries keep.
It's a jit kind of supply chain just in time model.
It comes in and then it almost very, very quickly turns over and goes into the soil.
So this is very, very worrier.
On top of this, nitrogen fertilizer relies on natural gas as a feedstock.
So the rising energy prices caused by the conflict in Iran
have also impacted fertilizers.
So what else will we see?
Well, another thing I was thinking about was how it could actually create lower crop yields.
Why? Because if farmers can't get enough, as long as they're not going to plant,
they're probably still going to plant.
But if they haven't got enough fertilizer, well, what are you going to do?
If you're a farmer, let me know in the comments, but I will let us all know what are you going to do?
Are you just going to crop, plant a certain amount of your fields?
Or will you just plant it anyway and then spread the fertilizer more thinly
and just hope for the best and, you know, hope for a really good sunny year, as it were.
I hope it will. But I don't know.
I don't know. I'm not a farmer, but these are some of the concerns
that I have over what's going on.
But I did look up the countries that will be most exposed here.
Brazil, India, Thailand, Bangladesh,
Turkey, those are the sort of, you know, countries there.
But then for most of my audience, Australia is going to get hit really hard.
And the United States as well is going to be impacted really, really badly from this.
So Australia and US viewers, really be careful.
But for everybody else, you know, for those of you that are in the UK region
and others, I want to just be clear on a point here.
Because a lot of people are saying or messaging in and saying,
you know, I'm really worried about about food.
Should I be going out and just stocking up my kitchen and pantry right now?
And the answer is, well, you should have some stocks anyway.
You should have your emergency food supplies anyway.
But no, it's not a case of there's not going to be enough food to go around.
That's not really the issue because
richer countries will simply buy the food at higher prices.
OK, the supermarkets aren't just going to stop buying the food.
It's just they're going to have to pay more and then they'll pass the costs on to you.
You think about food prices back in 2019.
I know some people say, you know, when are you going to make those videos again
where you go to the supermarket and you do your basket and stuff like that?
I'm not sure. Maybe join this crisis at this rate.
But you remember those videos?
Some of those things and it was a random basket of just items that I bought.
Some of those things had gone up 100 percent.
Some of them have now gone up 200 percent since 2019.
And it's not a coincidence.
All of this is interconnected.
So are you going to be without food?
No, but food is going to be more expensive for you to buy at the supermarket.
So what are some of the things that that I do?
And you probably read my newsletter on Friday, where I talked about
and gave some examples and what I what I recommend.
But one of the things I wrote in the newsletter was how I had a room of paper
that I pulled out because I was putting some paper in my printer.
And I remembered that that same room of paper cost me two pounds
fifty when I bought it just before all the the covid stuff was going on.
Cost me two pound fifty.
I saw that exact same room of paper for six pound fifty in the same shop now.
So you think two pound fifty is now six pound fifty.
So think about it this way.
All the things that you would use on the day by day basis that
they're not going to expire like paper, papers, paper.
OK, if you if you shave, you use razor blades, they're not they're not going to expire.
Right. So going out and buying those things
and you shampoo and you things like that is a sensible thing
because if you're going to use these things anyway,
then why not buy them now before you get these massive price rises or shortages
of certain certain things similar with food?
But you've got to bear in mind unless you're freeze drying,
you know, freeze drying machine and some of the things that I do,
then it's not going to it's not going to help you long, long term
because. Yeah, you can buy canned goods and things like that,
but you're not going to be able to buy fresh chicken and store it forever.
You know, you freeze this and you got limited space.
So this is the way you want to be thinking about it.
So I hope this is kind of helping you with your thoughts around the food situation.
It's not that there's going to be there will probably be shortages of certain foods,
but it's not that there's going to be shortages and people are going to starve
in in Western countries or wealthy countries.
You're always going to be able to buy it.
It's just going to be a higher price.
So I hope that really helped with everything.
Thank you again for being subscribers here.
Just a reminder to check out the digital income mastery program.
I'm working on it every day and recording every day as well.
So it's going to be a while before the whole program is released,
but gives you a great opportunity to get it now at a massive, massive discount.
And then once it's all recorded, then the full retail price will apply.
So thank you so much for being a subscriber here.
Take care. God bless you.
God bless your family through these difficult times.
And I'll see you on the next video this week.
Take care.