We just passed the point of no return.
Prepare now because this has been confirmed
to turn into a global crisis.
And we're already seeing the ripple effects
right around the world, even today.
And it's really only a matter of time
until this affects you as well.
But some slightly good news today.
I'm gonna take you on a beautiful walk
as we go over all of this less than beautiful news.
And this really isn't going to be good, ladies and gentlemen.
And we're gonna walk all the way up
to a very old historic stone tower here on the Isle of Man.
So stay until the end.
So let's begin with some very important context then
around the Iran conflict.
And I know you'll have heard a few of these points
over the last 24 to 48 hours,
but I really want to give you context around them
because I don't think they're giving these things
enough emphasis.
And we'll begin with the South Pass natural gas field,
which is shared between Iran and Qatar.
And it's actually absolutely crucial for natural gas,
crucial, and we've just had a major hit on it.
And if you think about it,
you've now got 20% of the world's natural gas offline.
And some of it is not gonna be turned back on
for five to seven years.
These are the conservative forecasts.
You've got 10% of the world's oil right now turned off
and there's no way to turn it back on for a good while yet.
So this is simple supply and demand economics
and we'll go through all of this today
so that you are prepared, you're better prepared
at least for what is about to come
because I really don't think that most people
even understand the implications
of what is going to happen because of this.
And I'll keep it all factual.
There's no fear based stuff here.
I'm just giving you the facts
so that you can actually prepare.
And I can see the tower here in the background,
which is where we're going to walk up to.
There it is.
It's a very, very long walk yet.
So let's get going.
So the South Pass field then world's largest
shared between Iran and Qatar
actually forms an extension of Qatar's North field.
It's North natural gas field.
And I think they were just as shocked as everybody else
that this was struck.
And I think nearly everyone was really surprised by this.
Even Trump was surprised when he found out about it.
You saw on the press conference,
eventually the sort of truth came out
that Israel decided to strike the field
and in response, Iran struck Israel back
and so on and so forth.
And this is the nature of war
and it's only going to accelerate.
So Iran is now heavily targeting its neighbors
and even the commentators don't seem to understand
why they are doing this.
Now, if you think about the strategy behind it,
it's obvious to put pressure on them
to evict the US from these countries
or maybe it's to have them pull their investments
out of the US.
Either way is going to be economically
a massive blow to the US.
But on the flip side of that,
the US has its own energy.
It has a lot of energy
and they can also get a lot of energy from Canada,
which is a net exporter of energy.
But it's kind of interesting,
even though I said weeks ago,
it's still going to hit Americans at the gas pump.
I would say the majority of people didn't believe me
when I said that statement
and now of course we're seeing the results at the pump
and this is only going to get worse.
And actually coming back to the energy infrastructure strikes,
I think we kind of got lucky in a way
that four of the five ballistic missiles
that Iran fired were intercepted.
If they weren't,
I mean who knows how bad the damage could have been.
It could have been absolutely catastrophic for the world.
And if you like geopolitical content
and finance content like this,
remember to subscribe to the channel here.
It's absolutely free.
Now this isn't even over yet
because after the self-pars attack,
Iran actually said they're going to be targeting
a lot of energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia,
the UAE, Qatar,
and they've actually started to make good on that promise.
We've already seen a lot more strikes
in the last 24 to 48 hours.
And if you follow the charts at all,
you'll have seen that gas prices surged by 30%
within that period of the strikes and the announcements.
It's gonna be an interesting one now
where we're starting the really big uphill climb.
So let's see if I can walk and talk
and hold the camera and everything else all at the same time.
This will be a good test of fitness here.
In fact, you look at the UK prices as well.
Gas jumped by 20% in one single trading session.
I mean, this is just unheard of with commodities,
20% in a single trading session.
Oil hits even higher levels as well right away.
We're still over $100 a barrel.
And even though people keep telling me,
it's gonna come back down, it's gonna come back down 80, 90.
I just don't see it at all.
I really don't.
I think we're looking at higher oil prices for longer.
Okay, we're getting closer now.
We're getting closer
because you just look at the facts.
If the energy infrastructure has been destroyed
and it's going to take five years, five to seven years,
by conservative estimates to repair
and get it flowing again,
then it's just simple supply and demand.
There's no possible way that prices can come back down
unless you're gonna open up new pipelines or new fields.
But if that's the case,
where are these new pipelines?
Where are these new fields?
It's not that simple.
You don't just turn on a tap, as I've said in recent days.
This fleece was a great idea at the start of the walk
and then the sun has come out.
It's getting warm now.
Let me just say that.
But then another point I wanna talk about here
and we're gonna loop back to all of this in a moment
is the redundancies.
So one of my charts just went crazy today.
The alerts were just insane
at all of these redundancies that have just been announced.
In fact, this headline just came out
that says more than 300,000 Brits
are at risk of redundancy this year in 2026
as a result of the Iran war.
This is an actual headline that we've just seen
and this is right across the Western world.
Huge amounts of redundancies are going to be coming
and you might ask, well, why?
Well, it's because as the higher costs feed into business,
businesses know that their highest cost,
their highest expense is employees, it's wages.
So what they'll begin to do
is they'll start to make some layoffs.
These were people that they were thinking of laying off
anyway at the start,
but then the ripple effect really comes through
and they have to start laying off people
that they don't necessarily want to lay off
and this is where it gets really difficult
because then you hit a term called employment scarring
and employment scarring dictates
that as more and more people are fired
or laid off within the economy,
it means that each one of those people was a wage earner
so they spend their money into the economy.
Well, what happens when you lose your job,
you reduce your expenses, you tighten your belt,
you just haven't got the same money that you had before.
I'm starting to be a little bit out of breath here now.
Here we go.
Take a quick look at the views here
while I catch my breath.
So this is just a vicious cycle
because the more people they get fired,
the more people it leads to getting fired
because those people can't go to the store,
they can't go to the coffee shop,
they can't go to the leisure place they go to
because they haven't got the money to do it.
So then those people at those businesses get fired
and it just creates this cascade effect.
It's not good.
In fact, I was just reading this freedom of information
request that was filed by the liquidation center
and it was over 315,000 jobs
that are about to be,
what people are about to be made redundant.
Okay, I think I'm gonna leave my fleece here
on this wall as we climb to the top of the tower there.
And no, don't worry.
No one's gonna steal my fleece here on the Isle of Man.
I can leave my laptop and wallet there for the whole day
and no one would steal it.
So, okay, so you might be saying then,
well, Neil, is that a lot?
315,000, is that a lot?
Yeah, it's a lot.
If you think the worst redundancies were in 2021
around the lockdown periods,
then that's actually 45% higher than that period.
So is it a lot?
Yeah, this is absolutely huge,
what it's about to hit,
this huge wave of layoffs and redundancies.
And I just saw it in Dell's annual filings
that they fired 11,000 workers, 11,000.
I've got the numbers here.
They spent $569 million on severance
and they called it disciplined cost management.
So let's put all of this together then.
Let's put together the rising energy shocks,
the rising fertilizer prices.
We haven't even talked about that yet.
The crazy cost of living explosion,
the food prices are gonna have to explode
because there won't be enough food coming very shortly,
especially if this continues
with a destruction of energy infrastructure.
Travel and commuting is gonna be hit hard.
So you'll see more work from home days
and things like that.
You're just seeing so much hit.
You're gonna see as well stock markets are gonna go down.
Golden silver will continue to go down
and then they'll explode upwards.
Why?
Well, that's a whole nother video,
but people are getting liquidated right now
even a lot of funds with all of their option contracts.
So that's why it's not someone said,
Neil, are you selling all your golden silver?
Absolutely nowhere.
Are you mad?
These are bargain prices to be buying at.
Well, maybe not just yet.
You're gonna see lower prices yet.
But yeah, I'm definitely not selling.
Let me tell you.
But the other thing you're gonna see
is stock markets go down.
I'm sorry to say that ladies and gents,
but they are stock markets are gonna go down
because of the higher input cost
because consumers will cut back.
So all your consumer cyclicals gonna be hit right away.
The other thing which people aren't really ready for
is the bonds.
Let's take a seat here for a minute.
We're almost there, almost to the top of the tower
and then we'll climb it.
But yeah, we've got to talk about the government bonds
because here's what people aren't realizing.
As the bonds keep going up,
the interest rates will keep going up.
As the Bank of England, the ECB, the Fed,
everyone starts raising interest rates.
It's gonna make everything more expensive.
And I'll talk about mortgages and things like that
because I've got an answer for you now
on fixing mortgages.
We'll talk about that shortly as well.
But the important thing I want you to think about
is if government bonds keep rising,
that means they're gonna have less money for spending.
They're gonna have to go to austerity measures.
That's not good.
That's going to affect everyone.
What could that mean?
All sorts of things.
Cutbacks in government spending and services.
It could mean higher taxes on everyone as well.
I mean, if this continues at this pace
with the energy infrastructure destruction,
you're gonna see something you've never before seen
in your lifetime.
It's gonna make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
It's gonna make the 1970s and 1980s oil shucks
look like a blip in comparison
where you saw what happened with interest rates.
They went through the roof.
Some of you will be old enough to remember that that period
where you had 15%, 16, some people 20% mortgages.
Okay, this is possible again.
I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen though.
I just wanna be clear.
I'm not saying this is gonna happen.
I'm saying don't rule anything out at this point.
It's too early to tell.
But if this continues, then it will be worse than that.
And I've shared with you so many times
how you should be getting prepared for all of this.
There's so many videos on the channel you can watch
with in terms of preparation, preparedness,
not just with your finances, but with your family,
with your household, supplies, emergency food,
and all the other things.
And even from an income perspective,
I highly, highly recommend that you start thinking
about this now, whether that's a different role,
risky in this environment,
or you get some sort of a part-time income
or you get more income streams.
Just created the new program.
We talked about that the other day,
but you've gotta start thinking about these things now.
And no, I don't mean a part-time job.
That is the one thing you don't wanna be getting
is a part-time job because you can't leverage your time
to the value that you get from the employer.
You can't leverage it.
So what you actually need is something
you can leverage.
So what do I think that is?
I think it's creating digital products and services
that we've talked about that are so easy to do now,
especially if you can use AI,
which most people can because,
just like using the web browser, right?
This sort of stuff is what I highly recommend doing.
And actually, I'm so proud that so many of you
are taking the digital income mastery program right now.
Really, I just think it's great
how many of you are taking it.
And I'd love to let more people into the program,
but I can only really do 25 people at a time
because I'm recording it as I go along.
I just didn't expect the demand for the program
that I've been honest with you here.
I did not expect the demand to be this high.
I'm blown away by the amount of people
that want to do the program.
And I'm also just making sure that everything is ready.
I wanna make it foolproof for everyone
and so that you can start on that program
and begin making money within 30 days.
And I genuinely think if you just apply yourself to it,
that you can begin to make money within 30 days.
In fact, even though I haven't even taught
the marketing and the sales aspects of it yet,
where you basically build those things out
and then it just runs on autopilot, which is really simple.
I had a lady, her name's Cathy.
Cathy, if you're watching, from the USA.
I think she's from Oregon.
I probably completely mispronounced that,
but anyway, she's from the USA
and she's an accountant and she's just said
she just sold her first two templates.
So what she created, which is part of the program,
is creating templates and all sorts of other things
that basically just save people a load of time.
So she created these templates
that help people do their taxes twice as fast.
So if you're someone like me,
obviously I'm gonna buy that template
because I think she said it was $50 or something like that,
$45.
If that's gonna save me hours and hours and hours,
then it's worth it.
So that's just a little example
but yeah, we've got people already started.
We've got a guy, Rich, who's a plumber.
He's already started selling his first digital,
I'm not sure exactly, I think they're PDFs
that he's created on his plumbing business.
He's already started selling some of them.
So people are literally making money right away already.
So yeah, if you wanna give it a try,
there's a 30-day money-back guarantee on it.
No questions asked, so you can just do that right away.
So there'll be a link somewhere around this video.
You can click that.
And it'll take you to another video
and it just explains all about the program
and everything else.
So yeah, definitely check that out
if you're interested in making additional streams of income
or a part-time income.
It'll really protect you in what's coming.
Oh, and if you can't get in today,
just try again tomorrow or definitely Sunday.
There'll be some more places.
So yeah, it's 90% off
because I'm pre-filming at the moment.
So it's not 100% finished
but modules five and six are out tomorrow evening.
So Saturday evening, this weekend,
module five and six are out.
Okay, let me show you.
Here we are.
We have made it to Milner's Tower
which is a beautiful old stone-built tower
and we're gonna walk up to the top now
and we're gonna see the view from across Port Arran.
So here we go.
And it's just spiral steps all the way.
Okay, you're not gonna see anything
so I'll turn the camera off a second
because it is absolutely pitch black in here.
Okay, here we are.
Just got my steps in for the day.
Okay, I hope you enjoyed that little
walk up Milner's Tower there then.
We're gonna just walk around this area for a little bit.
So let's continue on then.
So the Iranian strikes actually took out two
of Qatar's 14 LNG trains.
Like completely took them out.
Imagine if even more of those missiles went through.
You would have seen a, and again,
I don't say this lightly,
you would have seen a global famine if,
and the reason I say that is because
one of the two gas to liquid facilities
were hit as well.
You would have literally seen a global famine of 25%.
25%, I'm gonna be conservative.
25% of people around the world.
That's how bad it would have been.
And you still are going to see famine as a result of this.
You're probably going to see some food riots at some point.
You're gonna see some social unrest and breakdown
because there's a knock on effect, right?
There's a cascading effect of all of this.
Much of it hasn't even gone through the economy yet.
It's still gonna go through the economy.
Everyone's talking, you know, praising Keir Starmer,
Rachel Reeves about this energy cap.
The energy cap, well, you think they put the energy cap
in place, this three month energy cap.
Wow, all these people that are saying that,
oh, they did a great job.
No, the energy cap was in place.
It wasn't, they didn't put it in place.
And what they're not telling you is
what's gonna happen in July, right?
Once this energy cap has lifted,
just wait until you see the shocks
that are gonna take place in July.
My goodness, the UK is not gonna know what hit it,
especially, I think they just voted,
was it nine to one to hold interest rates?
I mean, the last time I saw a unanimous vote like that
has been a while.
So I think they're probably gonna be looking
to raise interest rates at this point.
Many countries will, which is not good.
It's not good at all for growth.
And Qatar actually canceled its contracts, by the way.
So these are contracts with Belgium,
Belgium, Italy, China,
and I think it was South Korea was the fourth country.
So that means no LNG or at least limited LNG.
And again, you're hearing all these things from the UK
saying, well, we're protected and all this other stuff.
We're protected because we planned for this.
We cut off Russian energy a long time ago.
No, all that happened was energy prices went up
as the UK sought other places to get this energy from,
which they did, they did replace it,
but it's a lot more expensive
as we've all seen with our energy bills.
And you look at Ursulaire and Lagarde
and some of these other senior leaders in the EU,
it's obvious they don't care.
They're so wealthy, it's not gonna affect them.
So they really don't care at all.
But this is gonna hit Europe so bad.
One of the first things I would be cutting right away
is any investments in manufacturing in Europe.
I wouldn't be holding any of these things right now.
Same with what we mentioned
with some of the consumer cyclical.
This is not today, but it's in the near future.
This is gonna get hit really hard.
And you think this is gonna be over soon.
I wouldn't bet on it.
Israel's just said that they see a reason
for a ground offensive in Iran.
And now I'm not saying a full scale,
but there's definitely some sort of talk of ground troops,
whatever that's going to look like.
And the Pentagon has just announced
they're gonna be sending a second Marine amphibious group
to the Middle East.
So that makes two now.
So what's that?
2,200 is 4,400 troops are gonna be on the way.
But wait, there's more.
Saudi Arabia is now threatening strikes on Iran.
Iran is also threatening actions against the UK
because, and I'm gonna have to quote here,
it says that the UK has been providing military bases
for the US to strike Iran.
This is considered participation in aggression.
So they said there will be consequences for the UK.
So it's not just now, man, if I were in the,
luckily I'm on the Isle of Man,
which is a crown dependency, which is a whole other story.
So it's not part of the UK,
even though people think the Isle of Man is part of the UK.
It's actually owned by the monarch.
Yes, the Isle of Man is owned by the monarch.
As crazy as that sounds,
a one man can own an island like this.
But anyway, he does.
So I'm not as worried, but for the UK,
the things now that have been announced.
So Iran is now threatening the UK
for the UK helping the US strike Iran.
Russia is threatening the UK
for helping Ukraine to strike Russia.
I mean, the UK at some point,
I don't know when it's gonna be,
but it's gonna get absolutely hammered.
I wouldn't definitely not wanna be in the UK
when World War III hits.
Let me put it this way, I'd be out of there.
I'd be on the first boat, first plane.
I mean, I'd swim if I had to.
It's just gonna be absolute chaos.
So another question people asked me over last week
was around global inflation,
because I said we're gonna see
higher inflation globally as well as GDP drops.
I think we're probably looking at
somewhere in the region of 3%,
and it could be up to 4% or 4.5%
in inflation globally as a result of,
because if you were to do the calculations
on the energy inputs, that's the oil and LNG,
into each economy around the world,
and then you cut 20% of the gas
and you cut 10% of the oil,
it's going to feed somewhere
in the region of 3% to 4.5% to inflation.
And then you have to calculate
the knock-on effects of that to GDP,
which will be different for each country, of course.
But the more energy-independent you are,
the better and more resilient you'll be.
Some countries are gonna be more resilient than others.
I just think a lot of the West,
UK, Europe especially,
are going to suffer very badly
and Australia and New Zealand.
These regions are gonna be hit really, really hard,
and it's their own fault, not the people's fault.
I'm on the people's side.
It's the leader's fault,
because the leaders have followed
all of these crazy policies
and destroyed their energy
just so that they could look good
at all of these little conferences and things,
and they've screwed over the people.
Okay, and the last point I promised I'd cover today then
is around the mortgages.
So I'll talk specifically about UK mortgages here,
and then you can look at your own country's mortgage.
Let's get the sunglasses on,
we're walking into the sun a little bit here.
So mortgages then, mortgage rates.
I said on Wednesday's video
that I don't know what I would do
if I were in your position right now,
but I've thought about it since over the last couple of days,
and I do think not financial advice,
do your own research,
speech to your financial advisor, whatever,
and I always have to give these silly caveats
because if you get, say, a thousand people
that do what you say,
one of them's gonna end up bad, right?
It's just the law of averages.
One person's gonna end up getting
getting it wrong or getting something bad
and then they'll come after me.
So not financial advice.
Okay, what would I do if I had a mortgage
that was coming up now?
I would actually fix it now at these rates.
I wouldn't wait.
I definitely wouldn't wait
unless I had a renewal coming up
in, say, one year's time or more.
So one, two years, et cetera.
Then, yeah, I'd probably wait,
but if you've got one coming up right now,
I wouldn't just let it sit and go onto a variable.
I'd fix it again right now
because I see higher rates coming.
That's what I see for mortgages.
So that's what I do.
And if you've got a mortgage going through right now,
get it completed quickly,
or if you've got a sale, get it completed quickly
because we're already seeing lenders
pulling mortgages from the market.
Now, legally, they shouldn't
if you've already got the offer confirmed,
but these are exceptional times
and we're already seeing a couple of lenders
having pulled them even though they've made offers.
So be very, very careful.
Get this fixed in.
Start thinking about all your costs
and your fixed costs now.
And yeah, just really plan for everything
that we've talked about here.
This is gonna be really, really not good,
shall we say.
But that's why I did it
with this beautiful walk today.
I thought this is gonna be really bad news.
Where should I do this walk?
And of course, this is the perfect place.
In fact, I'll give you a lovely view
as we wrap up here in a moment.
And look, I can see my fleece there in the middle.
No one took it.
So yeah, thank you so much for being a subscriber.
Really appreciate you.
Definitely check out the link to my program as well.
I think it's gonna really help you out big time.
And apart from that, take care.
God bless and I'm gonna finish a lovely walk here
and I'll see you on the next one.