WEBVTT

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L out of luck. And one person actually can claim that real ounce, the rest of the con. And so

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the only way that these types of things resolve is through crisis and an explosion in price.

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Hi, it's Mike and Alan again. And this video is about the absurd, ridiculous, absolutely insane

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undervaluation of silver. What have you got? Does that make sense to you?

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Yeah, absolutely, especially when we put it in a historical context. And that's exactly what this

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video is about. So really, it's all about the gold-silver ratio throughout history. We can see

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from the last 5,000 years that there is a particular range that this ratio tended to fall in.

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Lately, the last few decades, we are so far outside that range that it's hard to fathom

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how we even got there. But we're certainly going to have to revert sooner rather than later.

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Yeah, actually, it's more like a century and a half really that it's been out of whack.

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Yeah, I guess it depends. We're going to see all the dates and we can talk about it. So it

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depends what you think is normal or not and so forth. So it's hopefully a healthy discussion

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here. Take it away. All right, perfect. What I wanted to start with is this

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infographic that has been circulating around Twitter lately, the gold-to-silver ratio through

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history. And you can see that back in ancient Egypt, the ratio was single digits, 1 to 2,

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1 to 3, 1 to 10, something like that, or sometimes we say 10 to 1, 10 to 3.

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And it sort of hovered around 15 to 1, something like that throughout the last 5,000 years,

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for most of it. And today, we're living in Clown World. It's up near 90 to 1. I checked earlier

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today, it was 84 to 1, something like that. During COVID, it hit 120. I made a purchase,

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a big purchase of silver when silver dropped big time at the very beginning. And I can't remember

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the price that it went to, but I was able to load up using the ratio as my guide.

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Yeah, I love it. So I thought we could go back and take a look at this ratio and see

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why it has been in a certain range for so many years and why it might be different now.

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Well, I found this wonderful article from the Cambridge University Press,

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Golden Silver, Relative Values in the Ancient Past. And this was published about a year ago.

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And they documented more than 200 relative values of golden silver across almost 3,000 years.

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So this is incredible. I mean, they found sources from clay tablets and stone engravings

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and papyrus and just anything they could get their hands on. And they compiled a whole

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bunch of charts. And I have two of them I want to share with you today. The first one is this.

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It sort of summarizes the gold to silver ratio, which is what we're seeing on the Y-axis,

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across the whole time span that they looked at from 3,000 BC to about 400 AD.

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And they have all these different sources, each represented by this shape here. And we've

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got the Near East, Egypt, Greece, and Rome. And so you can see that this entire chart spans a

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gold-silver ratio of 0 to 25. And the highest data point, which is certainly an outlier,

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was about 21. Ordinarily the ratio, single digits for the first few thousand years,

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and then moving up to about between 10 and 15 to 1.

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So yeah, when you look at this, Mike, what do you see?

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Well, you know, I'm sorry, Egypt is the only one that goes across the entire graph,

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spans the entire time period. But I do see that in the ancient world, before

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gold and silver became money, before they became fungible, when it was little scraps,

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bits and bobs left over from refining and making artwork or religious objects or something like that.

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They were trading these, they were being used as a medium of exchange, but they weren't fungible.

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You had to weigh and every one of them, you know, if you're buying something with it,

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you're doing a trade. You had to weigh the precious metals, and then the seller

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had to take a guess as to the purity. So it made, trade was not, it was the invention of money that

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made trade easy once it became fungible. Same purities, same weights. And you can see that

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for some reason, when it comes to international trade happening, and gold and silver being

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money. So it's being taken on ships, certain weights and purities, and it's getting distributed

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all through these countries. They sort of, it goes up and it's all grouped together

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at that point. Yeah, right. Exactly. So, yeah. Yeah, very cool. And something I notice here,

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all these green circles, this is Greece, it's interesting how many of them are happening

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at the same time. So you could draw a vertical line through them at so many different points.

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And basically all those different ratios are happening at the same point in time. So, you know,

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as low as nine to one, as high as 15 or 16 to one. So I find this very interesting.

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It kind of suggests that there, that there is a band or a range that, that could seem reasonable.

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You know, it's not necessarily that there's one true number, there's a range that's

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reasonable. Do you see the three that overlap that are right at 10? I believe that

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Alexander the Great, the average there you can see had been, well, there's clusters going on,

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13, 14 to one. And he just thought that the exchange rates floating were silly and he

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made a declaration that it's going to be 10 to one and it didn't last.

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It couldn't. The free market always overwhelms any government dictate.

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Yes. And that is going to be a recurring theme throughout this video.

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There's all kinds of government dictates, but eventually the free market will overwhelm them.

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And that's sort of the big opportunity here with Silver. So there's sort of one question

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that emerges from this chart, which is why does, why does Egypt have so many

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markings down here around three to one, two to one? Yeah. And then, then they kind of come up higher

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when, you know, international, well, international trade happens. Well, trade, yes. And so there's

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this in my book, it was my theory that, that whatever they were digging up that was circulating

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locally, it's the ratio of how much gold there is in circulation compared to how much

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silver there is. And that was in my first book. And at that point, it was only conjecture on my part.

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I just said, well, this is logical. It's probably the reason. Yes. Well, I think this map here,

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which comes from that same article I just showed, I think this absolutely corroborates

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your hypothesis. Yes. Glad you found this. Yeah, it does. Wow. Gold and silver deposits.

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And you can see around Egypt and, you know, the surrounding area, it's all gold deposits.

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There's very few silver deposits. It's hard to find these little

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silver plus marks compared to, you know, the rest of Europe and Africa and so forth.

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Silver is fairly abundant. In my book, I had said that there was a point in ancient China

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where silver was twice as valuable as gold. And if you look at northern China on here,

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that cluster right there, there's only one silver mine in there. And it's all gold mines.

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Well, there might be two silver mines. But in that or the cluster that's at the very top

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going to the right on that map, that one, if there's so much gold being dug up and no silver.

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Now, one of the things that this map doesn't show, it says gold deposits, silver deposits,

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it doesn't tell you the size of the deposit. You might have a whole bunch of tiny gold

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deposits and one giant silver deposit. And that upsets the ratio. But still, this would,

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I can see that silver being twice as valuable as gold in some areas on the planet

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before all the areas were connected together is entirely a, it's a high probability.

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Yeah, it makes sense to me. And that's what the researchers of that article found.

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This one I showed here is they basically said that the exchange rates are largely determined by

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the availability of the metals. So pretty much driven by scarcity.

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Okay. Yeah. So moving right along here, I wanted to fast forward up to the year 1687 and show

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the gold silver ratio since then. And you could see that it was pretty level, well under 20, around,

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I guess 16 or so until 1873. And that's often called the crime of 73, at least in the United States.

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And then the ratio started to become extremely volatile. So as you mentioned the last 150

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years, it's been out of whack, definitely. So yeah, I guess I can elaborate a bit on the crime of 1873.

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Basically in the United States, this is when silver was demonetized. I know you take

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issue with that word a little bit. Do you want to explain why you don't like that word demonetized?

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Well, it wasn't completely, we still had very low value silver certificates. So the

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paper currency was redeemable in silver dollars. And we did issue silver dollars. Again, there's a

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Morgan series that's the early 1920s. I can't remember. And there's some of the,

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I can't remember the one after Morgan silver dollars. But that I think was 1927 or something

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like that where we issued a whole bunch more. And even when I was a kid, there were still silver

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certificates. And so it wasn't completely demonetized. It was relegated to change basically.

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It wasn't being, if you were a foreign government or something like that, the

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treasury was not holding silver that they could back up their notes with. They backed it all

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up with gold. And so we stopped using silver when it comes to large transactions and the government

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making the dollars that somebody is holding redeemable. There's one other thing I'd like to

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point out on this chart. I can't remember exactly what it was when it was, but you see

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crime of 73, it starts to rise. But then it sort of goes vertical right there. Yeah.

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And I believe that is where they discovered the silver valley in up near court delaying Idaho,

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the largest silver discovery on the planet. And then just a few years later, the Comstock

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load in Nevada that just barfed out this immense quantity of silver in just a couple

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of years. And then the discovery was depleted at that point. And so we demonetized. The

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government is liquidating the largest silver hoard on earth. And then we find all this,

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so there's this ton of new supply that comes to the market right in that period.

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Yeah, it makes sense. And what's interesting is you can't even see the effects of the California

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gold rush, like 1849, because everything was fixed by law. So even if you do get a huge influx of one

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metal or the other at that time, it shouldn't upset the ratio provided the government can

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enforce it. So yeah, we do get big discoveries from time to time. But on balance in the

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long run, the ratio of their prices should be in proportion to the ratio of their scarcities.

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Maybe not exactly, but it should be. Yeah, they were still minting silver dollars. But

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this is the price of the, or this is basically the price that the mining companies would be selling

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to the Treasury, or if you're buying bars. But there was still basically a peg on a silver

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certificate. So a $1 silver certificate was one 20th of a $20 bill, which was a $20 gold piece.

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So it had a government peg just because of the denomination of the bills that backed it

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and the silver dollars that you could trade for your $20 gold piece.

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Yes. And by the way, the crime of 73 isn't the only thing that happened in 73. There were

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two other instances, two other big events that happened around the world, one in the German

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Empire and one in the Latin monetary union. So the international classical gold standard commenced

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in 1873, almost by accident, by the way, it's largely largely considered to be an accident that

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the world went on a gold standard as a result of several things happening. The German Empire

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decided to transition from the silver North German Thaler, that's the root word of the dollar that we

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have. The South German golden to the German gold mark reflecting the sentiment of the first international

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monetary conference in 1867. Okay, blah, blah, blah. 1867. Isn't that about the end of the

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Civil War? Yeah, two years later. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Okay. So anyways, the following countries switched

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from silver or bimetallic currencies to gold in the following years. And German Empire, Latin

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Monetary Union, Scandinavian Monetary Union, Netherlands, Ottoman Empire, Austria, Hungary,

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Russian Empire. And I also highlighted the gold silver ratio in red boxes. And you can see

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that it's about 15 in all these different places. 18 in Austria, Hungary and Russia 23, a bit of an

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outlier there. But, but yeah, just in the 1870s, I mean, a pretty modest and consistent ratio of

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about 15 or 16 to one. That outlier of Russia makes me wonder what happened in their currency

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supply, because that creates an arbitrage opportunity. Somebody can export one bag of coins of one metal

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and buy, swap it for a different metal. When you bring it back, you can buy two bags now. And so

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you keep on repeating the process. And what happens when you're out of step with the rest

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of the world, either your gold or your silver is going to leave. Yeah. So I didn't have time

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to research whether or not that happened. But I'm sure some people took advantage of it. Yeah.

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So anyways, very, very interesting how that played out. And I do want to zoom in a little bit on

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some of the more recent things in case you want to comment on some of the developments that

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have happened since then. 1939, the gold silver ratio peaked at 98 to one after Roosevelt set gold

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at $35 an ounce. 1945, Bretton Woods. 1971, Nixon took us off the gold standard. 2020,

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you mentioned earlier that the gold silver ratio peaked over 125 as a result of the COVID pandemic.

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So anything you see here that you want to comment on, Mike? Well, something that's

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missing is 1966, when Lyndon Johnson created what David Morgan refers to as the Johnson sandwich

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when there was copper in the that when they took silver out of our coinage. And so

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the Gresham's law was kicking in and silver coinage was disappearing from circulation.

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And there wasn't enough, I mean, I've got quotes from Johnson saying, you know,

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we got to have coins for parking meters. There was literally a shortage of pocket change.

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So anyway, yeah. The one thing that I would add here beyond what you said is in 1975,

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basically allowing gold and silver futures and paper, paper metal, basically. Yeah.

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Also, that one little spike down that goes down below 14. That is January 1980,

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when silver, you know, gold had been rising for months and months and months. And it was about

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November of 1980, that's 1979, that silver finally really took off like a rocket and

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started from about four bucks to 50 bucks. And so the gold silver ratio spiked. And I think

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that day is coming again. And that will be an alarm to either start considering selling

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your precious metals or converting your silver to gold and getting many, many times more gold

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than you paid for. That's the reason, you know, it's been so out of whack that I haven't bought any

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gold in a long time because I look at the ratio and I just can't allow myself to buy gold at

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these prices. This out of whack ratio because eventually things return to the mean. And all the

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paper gold and silver that's traded today is building up pressure. The free market has not

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been able to resolve this issue because the paper is preventing it. So let's move on.

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Yeah, absolutely. Speaking of paper, I took this screenshot from the US debt clock. Look at this,

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the paper silver to physical silver ratio is 411 to one, paper gold to physical gold ratio

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133 to one. So that means for every physical ounce of metal, there's 100 or 400 paper ounces

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of the corresponding metal. And they all think they have title to that same ounce. So it's

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musical chairs. And when the music stops, 310 people are going to be sol out of luck.

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And one person actually can claim that real ounce the rest of the kind. And so the only way that

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these types of things resolve is through crisis and an explosion in price. Yeah, exactly. So

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probably three times as manipulated or potentially price suppressed as gold. But they both collectively

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are trading as if they have 100 times greater supply than they really do. So the price is

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going to have to adjust once people realize that paper metal is not the same as actual metal.

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Right. Because of this ratio, it's not even a claim on the actual metal. It's a fraud.

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It's what it is. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. So speaking of the opportunity at hand here,

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there is a four year chart of gold and a four year chart of silver. And they both are forming a

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four year parabolic base, which is kind of cool, kind of beautiful and kind of rare.

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And kind of bullish. Very, very bullish. Kind of bullish. That's an understatement.

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Extremely bullish. Yeah. Not only a gorgeous chart is also a very unusual setup with gold

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and silver looking this similar. And if they are to hold the trend line, the way is up. Yeah.

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Yeah. You know, all of this supports what I've been saying for years is that you will see silver

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in the triple digits. It really needs to be there to get that supply back up. And then

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for the past couple of years, several years, we've had a supply deficit.

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And we're just, you know, with all of the battery technology and solar that's coming out right now,

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the industrial demand for silver. And all you need is a crisis and people actually

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wanting it when there's monetary demand, when gold and silver start acting like money once again,

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then you're going to see some real fireworks, some fireworks in gold and sort of a

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nuclear bomb in silver. I mean, it's going to be huge.

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Yeah. Absolutely. And speaking of fireworks in gold, I wanted to include the comparison of today's

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gold bull market compared to that of the 1970s. Just as a starting point, and then obviously

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silver is amplified on top of this. So you presented this chart at the limitless recently.

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Do you want to describe what you're seeing here? We originally did this chart, you and I, back in

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2022. And basically, I asked you to do what they do. It's something called Elliott Wave for

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anybody that doesn't know. When something is rising, it goes up in like three or five waves.

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So it'll go up in wave one, wave two, wave three. And I had you take the lowest price that gold

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traded at between 1980 and I believe we did this in October of 2022. And so it didn't have that

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extension on it. It had the up wave and then that bull. It didn't have that area, that tail.

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And then you updated it for limitless that I appeared at just, I don't know, four months ago

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or something like that. And you explained in a video that, I was going, wow, what happened?

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It diverged. And I'm going, oh, no. And then you were the one that said what happened

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right during that period where it diverged. What was it? COVID lockdowns. And so and then

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the creation of tons of currency. And I believe that this is this, this suppression that you just

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talked about all those frames that we just covered that information. This is storing energy.

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You can't print as much currency as we've printed without this reacting somehow. The

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quantity of currency that was created for, you know, from 2008 until today, but especially

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when COVID hit, that should have gone vertical and it didn't. And so if it's storing energy,

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I think it's going to, you know, just so that people can get a grasp on this again.

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The blue scales on the right side and the bottom is the 1970s bull market. And that's the blue line.

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And then the orange scales, the gold colored scales on the top and on the right hand

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scale. That is the present day. And what you had to do to get that, it's 1970, August 15,

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71. And 1999 was the lowest price that gold hit between 1980 and today. And so we took those

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two lows that were there, lined them up. And then you took the highs from 1970 and you squeezed

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today over. And so if people look at the bottom time scale and the top time scale,

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the bottom time scale is just two years at a time. And then we've got the top scale,

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we've got four years per measurement. And the measurements are actually closer. So we had to

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squeeze time. And then we found that we had to squeeze the amplitude by a factor of 1.6

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to be able to fit this in there. And so the, if this goes up to match the,

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you're talking about close to $10,000 an ounce on this, but I think it's going to blow past it

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because of all this stored energy. So you're talking about some real fireworks.

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Yeah, absolutely. So just to kind of bring it all home, if we're at a price today of about

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2600, 2700, if it repeats what it did in the 1970s, even with some kind of a lag here,

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we are talking about 9000 or $10,000 an ounce gold. So that's called a 4x in the price.

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And looking at the gold-silver ratio, which we've been looking at throughout this whole video,

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that probably should move by a factor of 4 or 5 relative to gold to come back into a line.

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So yeah. So if gold is moving by a factor of 4 and silver moving by a factor of 4 times that,

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we're talking 16x in the price of silver in order to bring all these ratios back into balance.

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There's a tremendous opportunity here. Yes, there is. So I want to thank you for all of this data.

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And for the audience, please like, subscribe, hit that notification bell.

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That helps us spread the word. I want to thank everybody for watching and thank you, Allen.

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Thanks, Mike.

