You ready for another lockdown?
It's here.
This time it's gonna be because of the fuel not COVID
here in Taiwan.
It's not exactly like they're showing you on the news.
There's no mass panic because the fuel,
well, everybody's driving just as normal.
So what are we seeing here?
But you can get ready for more and more restrictions.
Such walk through them,
what you can expect, maybe a timeline going out.
But here's your playbook.
The reason I'm saying this is worldwide
they're talking about working from home again
four day work weeks, driving less.
You're gonna have to carpool.
You're gonna have to not fly as much.
You're gonna, wait a minute,
that checks the boxes of almost all these goals
a little bit further into the future that we're hearing.
You'll have to have permission to drive your car.
Let's dive into it.
Starting with the IEA,
sheltering from oil shocks.
These are the 10 measures right now
to reduce impacts on households and businesses.
With your billion dollar budgets,
could you please do better graphics?
This is horrible.
It's like a third grader put this together.
Just constructive criticism.
Could you not scrape an emoji off the internet
off of Emojipedia or something and at least do,
we'll start on the left.
Alternate day car access in big cities,
meaning even odd license plates or letters,
whatever they're using, going into a city.
Increased car sharing,
drive commercial vehicles efficiently
and then we got lower highway speeds.
We saw that in the 70s, 55 mile an hour.
Avoid air travel on the far right.
A little bit easier for you to read it with this list here.
Work from home when possible, right at the top.
Encourage public transport.
I've been looking for these signs, zero in Taiwan.
Had a friend in Japan driving around for the last two days.
Hasn't seen it up there either, zero in Japan,
but the news would have you believe
every station's closed across the planet in Asia.
Oil dependencies, supply crisis, visualization.
I'm in the red, I'm not seeing any,
fuel prices went up 15%, but that is it here in Taiwan.
Just an on the ground assessment.
I am not seeing what you are being delivered
into the news here as what is happening.
South Korea announces mandatory fuel rationing
and check right on cue vehicles
at public institutions barred from operating one day
each week and a five day license plate rotation.
Hey, that sounded like alternate day car access
in big cities.
Breaking South Korea has started a nationwide energy
saving campaign, urging people to take shorter showers,
bicycles for short trips, charge phones and vehicles,
electric vehicles at night, not to strain the grid
during the middle of the day.
I mean, I had a laugh.
Take a shorter shower, that's going
to save the energy crisis.
Oh, come on.
This is maniacal and absolutely ridiculous, the things.
But again, 2022, what did they ask us to do?
Some of the ridiculousness is being just recycled,
maybe adding a little bit different fabric softener
on it, but it's going through the wash again.
Vietnam, check, work from home, prices spike.
But wait, we've already been trained to work from home.
That'll be super easy.
Just do it again.
COVID gave us hybrid work week.
This war might give us a four day work week permanently.
Oh, wait, that was one of the plans, I guess,
at the end of this decade, wasn't it?
We would all be working from home.
Officers would be closed, so we didn't need to go anywhere.
But let's go back on to the bad graphics here.
Avoid air travel far right at the bottom
if alternatives exist.
Oh, wait, you might get stuck in the Philippines.
Plains grounded, they don't have enough aviation fuel.
If you go to one-way trip, don't you dare travel?
You get stuck at your destination.
Rethink everything.
Yeah, that's what the messaging is here.
And the gamification.
Of course, we have the countdown clock,
or I should say a clown down clock.
Every movie has one.
It's gonna detonate three, two, one.
Oh, there's a timer.
Oh, the release.
Oh, this, that.
They've already trained you
through the movie's countdown clock.
There we go, 42 days.
Critical diesel fuel shortages in New Zealand.
I'm gonna give props to whoever did the API
and created this real-time status
for fuel disruptions and availability in New Zealand.
Unbelievable, you did such an amazing job.
Like I was blown away, the amount of data on this thing
is like, wow, every country needs to do this.
And whoever did it, again, props to you.
This is amazing.
So those supply projections,
and we'll show you the different lines
just like they have with different emissions scenarios
and temperature rises.
It's so easy to copy-paste that, you know?
You've already been trained for 40 years.
Why not use the same data?
If there's no intervention and they don't do rationing,
diesel top right will run out approximately April 17th.
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Now if they do emergency lockdowns,
then that purple line will extend you out until
approximately April 27th.
So 10 days lockdown or no lockdown.
I guess you're getting into desperation
if you need to lock country down
to save 10 days of fuel
because then you're going to zero anyway.
So does it really matter?
Everything's color coded, just like a stoplight,
just like the things that we saw in 2022,
red bad days, red extreme danger in the city, yellow.
You know, we've all been trained for these same colors.
So just follow the colors.
You might as well lock down 40%
although they reversed it green good this time.
Well, green bad actually
because it's the lockdown point.
So they can't have it exactly
because you might catch on supply projections.
So the historical current,
well, New Zealand's dropping off a cliff
they're really relying on imports,
obviously they're in Ireland.
Well, so is Taiwan,
but I'm just not seeing this same scenario play out here.
No intervention baseline is red obviously
and this is just the regular car petrol center there, top right.
And the emergency lockdown will take us to 40%
I guess savings and that'll extend itself
from like April 20th all the way up to like,
I don't know, May 14th or something.
A little extra on that.
So we got to go to the jet fuel.
This is the important one that they're really pushing here,
the aviation fuels.
Again, it's very similar.
You might buy yourself a week or two maximum
by going complete draconian style,
but hey, a week of fuels, a week of fuel
got to get you trained again.
Thailand, the fuel prices at station soar
six bottle liter where they were at 32, 33 bottle liter anyway.
So looking about 20% increase,
but hey, in America, we were well over 20% already.
So, you know, the headlines are scarier
than what's truly occurring.
And just a fact, oh, Indian fuel prices up five rupees a liter.
Again, that's within the baseline of just percentages
not doubling or anything.
And then if we go over to Germany limits fuel price hikes,
they're going from 175 euro to 2 euro a liter.
So 25 cents.
So this is equivalent per liter
and you need four liters to make a gallon.
So it's up a buck a gallon.
But here's the interesting part.
On the bottom there, rising fuel cost, hitting haulage.
So diesel accounts for 30% of haulage costs
or haul bills for a better term.
What a cost to get it in a truck from point A to point B.
And now just because that very small increase,
they're already raising rates eight to 10%.
Then for sure those costs are going to be passed on to you and me.
Now remember yesterday's video saying that the Straits and Hormuz
eat on now is going to be charging two to four million dollars
per vessel that's going to transit through.
So that's another additional add on cost.
The inflation involved in this is going to drive prices up.
Now we can see everybody because fuel is going to get more
expensive on the diesel side saying,
hey, we need to charge at least 8, 10% more.
So all of these added up, it's 1,000 cuts for a better term.
And prices are going to quickly start doubling.
Is this or was this sort of in the scenarios
anyway by the end of the decade is the question
because we kept reading about it,
kept hearing about it for the last I don't know,
five or six years, 2018, 19 people were written books about it.
Things are going to reset.
We're coming to a new economy.
They're going to do this,
but it's going to be note because nobody will accept it forced.
So my question again is perfect timing.
Everything's been pre-trained for the first three, four years.
Now it had a, you know,
it's like they had to let off the pressure there for a minute.
Now we're back on high pressure again.
All the training kicks right back in, work from home.
Oh, we already did that.
I've just reset out my cameras and the office kicked the kids out.
They're going to have to live together.
Bedroom turns into the office.
Don't care.
Everybody's under duress.
They got to suffer a little,
little Johnny can't have his own bedroom.
So, you know, we're coming back to this thing exactly again.
And you wonder, you know,
what the ultimate costs are going to be for this
because once the prices get elevated,
they're just not going to come down.
Because remember your 2018 and 19 prices before COVID,
once they reach those maximum levels,
they barely came down.
Our food still substantially more than it was 2017, 18, 19.
This will also be the same,
like substantially up from the COVID up prices
is going to stay there and it'll just hang out
after this event is finished.
Do you think these retailers are going to,
you know, take a hit and bring their prices back down?
Never, never.
This is where it comes in.
You might need some universal basic income
to afford the new high food prices.
Well, that was already baked in the cake too, wasn't it?
AIs here.
It's all too convenient.
This thing wraps into a sweet little package.
Hey, in the European fuel shortages slash rationing,
Slovenia becomes the first.
You're like, oh no, it's in Europe now too.
And it just keeps rolling.
I haven't heard much in South America.
So I'm surfing the news every day hard
looking for these things.
Energy rationing coming to the EU, coming to the UK.
They're already broadcasting.
You are going to have to deal with this because,
well, they say so.
African nations, fuel shortages triggered by the conflict.
Got to be rationing as well.
And they keep mentioning COVID.
Home, work from home measures.
And there's forced measure out.
Fertilizer is going to be next.
So I wanted to dive in Australia here.
This is another one.
They're running out of fuel.
Now again, how much are they
or how much is purposely held back
because you got to realize military's government,
they're going to pull back first
and barely trickle some out to the public.
So fuels there somewhere.
Public's just not getting their full share of it.
Fuel siphoning from cars.
So that means people putting a hose down
and then siphoning fuel out of the cars
to get it for free.
Going to put some locks on your gas tanks.
Now this is back on March 22nd
and we're only at the 26th.
So I'm going to walk you through four days at time.
107 fuel stations are out of diesel.
47 were totally out of fuel.
So I was wondering how many fuel stations are in Australia
because other news comes out and says
there's 500 stations that are out of
at least petrol or diesel.
And then it said there's 600 stations
in addition to the European shortages.
So I jumped on a rock and there's 7,800 service stations
or petrol stations, gas stations in Australia.
And if 47 of those are out of fuel
as based on the March 22nd numbers,
that is 0.6% of the stations are out of fuel.
Here's the gray line.
600 stations are out roughly 8%
are missing at least one type of fuel.
They're not totally out of fuel.
See they're juggling this out of fuel
out of totally out of fuel
out of a type of fuel.
Going to get more.
Got to ration it.
So again the juggling act of the information itself
it was they're out of fuel.
Oh wait, there's only out of fuel some.
There's some out of diesel, some out of gasoline.
And they're going to keep juggling this around.
But the ultimate point is governments
serve governments first.
Like for a continuity of government,
of course you're going to have the fuel.
So what's being trickled down
and given out to the public
is through the government
and its systems of private partnerships
through the refineries, through the distributors,
through the importers and the ports
going out and delivering that to the public.
What's left after governments take there
what they need for continuity for military
obviously you know emergency operations
they're going to need an entire bevy
of fuel needs themselves.
They let the tanks go way low.
They're refilling as this is going on.
So the fuel shortages at least has had
the best I can explain it is.
These are currently artificial
because governments are pulling fuel first
and they're leaving what is left
after their needs back to the public.
So nothing's running out really at 100% everywhere.
It is being restricted because
well the first flows are going elsewhere.
And this whole thing being played out as this
you know juggling numbers game
with juggled bits of information
some of it true some of it
misconstrued to create confusion.
Unless the world we're living in right now
so be very discerning on what you're seeing in the news.
Let's jump on to the hardest hit countries
with quantified station closures slash outages.
And now a thousand stations are out of fuel or closed.
Now again that they didn't dissect it
out of total fuel or only out of diesel
or only out of certain types of fuels.
High octane low octane ethanol blends.
They're not really specific
but about over 40% are affected.
If you got 2500 stations thousand are affected.
Cambodia 364 stations out of their 6300
put you around 6% Philippines.
This is a big one they keep putting the Philippines
everywhere I'm looking Philippine headlines.
I don't know why they're focusing on this place so much.
They would have you believe that you're never getting out of there
ever again because of the jet fuel shortages
and they are the least affected
in the petrol station closures
but they're getting the most news
out of being mostly disrupted.
So other context for affected countries
no precise closure numbers available.
Thailand 10 to 20 percent of the stations
temporarily unavailable at peak demand
meaning rush hour when lines are stretching down the street
they'll just close off pumps we don't have it
government told them to do that
wait for lower acute number or longer lines
or less longer lines and then turn the pumps back on.
It's there it's just not being given to the public
when people are panic buying
you see they're trimming it like this.
Slovenia they're closing
because all these other European nations
are driving in to fill their gas tanks
so there's a lot of foreign plates coming in
they call it fuel tourism there.
Overall Europe, Hungary, Germany I'll come to that in a second
and there's different queues and rashing
across Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar,
Bangladesh, Vietnam, India and New Zealand.
Over to Germany and Hungary.
Well the Germans are driving over
filling up in Hungary
and when they came back the police are all over the roads
they're not solving crime
they're stopping people on the roads
checking their gas tanks
because if you bought fuel in Hungary from Germany
you have to pay the tax and they get you right on the spot.
Like I said I have an empty tank I rock over
and Hungary cost me 150 bucks to fill up.
I go back and they're like
ah you didn't pay the German tax on that
because Germany is limiting fuel
purchases and you know they're creeping up towards
a good eight dollars a gallon
where it's cheaper in Hungary it's cheaper in Slovenia.
So even this whole thing about the fuel shortages
they can go across the border
but when they come back they're being pulled over
and the ag diesel as well you know there's a
if you got ag diesel that they color it
it's either red ours is green in Tennessee
it's red in other places
so if authorities were wanting to see
if you were running agricultural diesel
which is given it a no-tax discount of farmers
by 500 or a thousand or 5000 gallons
they could sell it off
out the back of the field
and eventually we're going to start checking gas
tanks on diesel vehicles
to see if you're using ag diesel.
This is the world we live at it
oh it's just getting more bizarre
but everything's being tracked
more QR code that definitely this is what
that you know online mobile systems
are about to know exactly where your car
is gone from point A to point B
and in the future when they say you can't drive
there's like they're just going to turn our cars off
so we can't even start them to go anywhere.
Welcome to 2026 oh it's a beautiful world.
So running you down here somebody did a good job
throwing the flags in front of this
not all of them are fuel shortages
but it just gives you kind of an update
as through the week here as I'm doing
but in a shorter fashion Sri Lanka
four-day work week rationing schools closed
can't have all the parents driving the kids
they're using that fuel make them take the bus again
backstand overnight price surge
doesn't show how much but you know
we're talking 15 20 percent but that is
absolutely catastrophic for a lot of people
across the world a 20 percent rise in fuel
India says they have nine days or reserves left
but I'm calling BS times 10 on that one
they're in the top worlds roof
I think they're the fifth in the world for refining
it's just almost impossible that India could be disaffected
I've seen a lot of commentators from India going
how is this even possible
so I'm following their news over in India
of the people that are on that
and explaining that that's not possible unless it's manufactured
so just put that as a feather in your cap
as a piece of information
Japan they lied to said 254 days but actual 95
but again I have somebody up there driving around
currently looking for closed stations
and they're not finding any
so that one picture you saw circulating on the media
that said thanks Trump fuel station closed
that was a well Twitter moment
and there's that can't be found
that stations not findable anymore
UK of course they're warning for it's coming
it's coming Germany gas up
it's going to get in more France paying more
South Africa says everything fine
people showing empty pumps
again this is what I'm saying
it's an information overload here for most people
Brazil nervously watching
but again they're oil producer
why would they be nervously watching
they have refineries down there too
Brazil is going to be well off America
we got refineries India's got refineries
China's got refineries
yet somehow the world's running out of oil
and and finished product
they just don't get it
unless it's being purposely shelved
and China 1.4 billion barrels stockpiled
they banned exports of all fertilizers
and they're still getting oil
and the Southeast Asian nations are turning back
on their coal burning power plants as well
if they can't get the natural gas
we'll go into that tomorrow
they're just gonna they're switched back to coal
like they didn't destroy theirs
Australia boom they blew them all up
Germany boom there's no possible way
they just you know took it to the ground
and scrapped it all well
smartly here they just mothballed those power plants
they're turning them all back on
so the repercussions of this
everybody's going to burn coal
if they can't get whatever the cleanest
anthracite or whatever it might be
they're just going to go back to whatever they can get
I don't care it comes from Pete Bogg
we're burning it because we need electricity
you think these governments are going to get overthrown
because they're concerned about burning
burning a dirtier quality
of coal of course not
that would be insanity
we're going back to the English 1850s smoke in the street
smoggy kind before they'll ever ever
have citizens overthrow them come on
this just twisted everything back on old school again
so all these saves and all this you know
forward movement into renewables
is just backtracked about two decades
so the elephant in the room
top kind of dependence on Middle East
now this is Asia here because all the news
and the world's focusing on Asia they're out of fuel
Japan 93 95 extremely high reliance
whole strategic reserves they're not rationing
to the point yet stations are still open
contrary to what you're seeing of all these signs everywhere
can't find the signs so
what's generating those AI what up
South Korea we saw that in the beginning of the video
they are now telling people work from home
and
spot Singapore
but they are the through point down off the Malacca
straight they have the most oil coming into that place
of any nation on the planet pretty much in a port
scenario how are they again you know this has to be
manufactured India there's some great analysis
I encourage you to look out at people talking about
Indian refinery madness that I can't be
because just the sheer volume of it being
like the fifth in the world
how is that even possible
a China halt on all fertilizer exports
they're keeping all fueling and they got massive
oil fields how they refilled a bunch of fields
and you know their storage is massive
so they're not going to be affected
I'm over in Taiwan at the moment
and significant exposure to Hormuz by the way
they went away from that about five years ago
they're about 30% dependent
and you haven't been hearing about that in the news
have you because everything is floating as normal here
gas prices are not 15% there's no shortages
there's no people hoarding
there's no signs on the gas stations
it's just you're not what you're seeing the news
is not what's really happening
Vietnam are telling people work from home
although they do have offshore oil fields themselves
they don't have the refinery capacity
Thailand has some refineries
noble dependence they might have to start switching imports
and then Malaysia significant Gulf crude imports
so as we look at the overall scheme of it
yeah there are disruptions I agree
but it seems currently the shortages that we're seeing
out to the public again are
somebody's being served first before the scraps are being given to the public
everywhere across all these nations
at that point when reservoirs are full
or strategic reserves have been topped up
that overflow might go or it just might be held
depends on what is trying to be achieved here
and just in a very common sense way
is this organic or is this a plan
hostilities you know
in your right mind you didn't think after going after this nation
putting them into a corner where you're like
we're even going to steal your oil reserves
we're going to replace all your leaders
we're coming in with our form of leadership
that they're like well
that just means we totally die on the vine
and our complete history of civilization just disappears
they're going down to the grandma
with a meat cutting cleaver in the kitchen kind
before you're able to get in there
so if that wasn't already analyzed
and gamed out as a possibility of the straits being closed
like y'all should be fired as analysts
like that you that was already on the baked end of the cake
if the pipeline delivering five million barrels to the red sea gets cut
then we'll be in in some shocks for sure
because i got that alternative route running over the red sea
through the east west pipeline in saudi arabia
be discerning with the news
they are flipping facts they're juggling half truths
it is but it isn't the governments are saying one thing one day
another thing they're different oh the fuel's been released
got to alleviate the shortages
but oh it's just this huge scare campaign to stop everybody from traveling first
get you to get used to staying home and not driving anywhere
get you used to not being able to drive
because in your head it's expensive
the government said don't drive we're not going to drive
there's there's an imagine getting caught on the road
your plate doesn't match for the day
they'll tow your vehicle they're going to be fines
maybe prison time for driving
and now with all the advent of these new vehicles
they just turn them off
so the world we're about to enter is planned already
I mean it was already a futuristic view
of what this scenario is today anyway
already through our you know media and just common
you know water cooler talk for the last five to ten years
now it's here so is it any surprise that it's here
and how long does it take to move to the next step
think about COVID that was what like 20, 21, 22, 23, about four years or so
then they had to let off the gas because too much people were getting insane
and the pressure cooker there
so got solid four years and the first year rolling in that people were untrained
they didn't really know how to behave
you had to teach them all this work from home
teach them you know stand six feet
we got to teach everybody everything right
so let's say three years solid of stress
I had to let that off
because if you do that too much people just quit caring
and it doesn't affect them anymore
like the the the buzz wears off
and they're like whatever
so they just behave differently
let let off the stress people get two years of wow
it's all over now but bam we're right back on it
so if we're looking at any indication of pressure on pressure off
pressure on pressure off
this is going to roll for three years
and by that time we're getting precarious to close to a new decade
seems to fit doesn't it
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so those are two of my nuggets for you
if you want to just instantly get prepared on
on something I believe in
I've tried and trusted myself already
please share this with your friends and family
this information is really really important
to try to game out
see what's going to happen
we're going to go through a lot of
do this don't do that
jump the rope
jump to that square kind of things here
moving real quick
so get used to it
I already understand it's going to end at some time
in the future
it's not going to be a permanent thing
just get ready for being directed every single day
to do something or restrict something
you know do you have backup plans
if you're going to be at home
do you have something to do there
and work on your garden
and other things like this
if you're working at home
just take it as a
as a gift to be able to grow some of your own food
you know get tight with your family
make this a family activity
and if they're going to make you stay home
great
don't just sit there and tool to your thumbs
and serve media all day
do something productive
like start the community garden
with all the others that are stuck at home too
that would be awesome
that is a way to get off centralized systems
and not have to listen
as much because you're growing your own food
what if you can't get to the supermarket
you're not allowed to drive this week
because they've got really bad
can't drive for two weeks
you have to walk or ride a bike everywhere
a supermarket's 20 miles too bad
take one for the team
so you're going to be push pulled
directed boxed in corners let out
all through this whole thing as it unfolds
so
have a plan and good luck to everybody
I'll bring you natural gas disruptions tomorrow
it's a biggie too and that's why everybody in Asia
is now switching back on the power plants
back to coal
and we'll see how that might play out
until next time
bye for now