Breaking news, ladies and gentlemen, food and fuel shortages have now been confirmed.
There is an emergency meeting being held right now within the United Kingdom.
This is the UK government, as well as energy companies, food, farming bodies, banking, Goldman Sachs, all the top bankers are there.
This is looking to go on late into the evening, which was the last update.
But I'm going to go through everything for you now, bring you right up to speed since Friday's video so that you can get up to date now on everything that's happened.
And I'll tell you, ladies and gents, this is not good.
Okay, the stuff that I talked about three weeks ago is now pretty much almost all confirmed.
So we're going to go over, in fact, let me just start with some of the stuff on the shared screen.
Look at this.
Keir Starmer to meet energy chiefs as fears of UK fuel shortage grow.
Well, this was earlier today. He's already met with the energy chiefs.
Drivers across the UK are facing soaring fuel costs and sporadic shortages at the pumps.
The situation is rooted in one of the most significant disruptions to global oil supply in living memory.
No, this is the worst energy crisis in history. It's official now.
This is the worst ever. And we're going to get on to... I don't know how long this stream will be.
It could be a longer one.
But we're going to get on to why this is about to get a lot worse later on.
I want to begin with all the important stuff.
But really, you know, especially if you've got a spouse or partner or friends and family
who call you a conspiracy theorist for being prepared for emergencies like this.
I'll give you an example.
I said last week the Isle of Man where I live is going to start running out of fuel very shortly.
And the anger people fired at me for saying that was insane.
And yet, what happened overnight, what's happened today?
There's no diesel on the entire island. It's completely out of diesel.
And then, because I prepared myself, made sure I had backups and other things,
people now say, you're a... you caused this, you're a hoarder of fuel and all these other...
I mean, you can't win, ladies and gents. Don't even try and get into it all.
But look at these articles. Look at all of this.
Drivers warn not to panic by amid fears of fuel shortages.
There's growing concern that more widespread shortages may occur after isolated reports
of petrol stations running out at the weekend.
So this was at the weekend.
This is... now we're talking UK here, but this is going to apply to a lot more countries.
Number 10 crisis talks as the UK is warned of diesel shortages within weeks.
And experts say this will be worse than the 1970s.
Well, do you remember what happened in the 1970s?
If you don't read the history books on it, this was absolutely one of the...
It was the biggest shock the world has ever seen in the 1970s, the 1980s.
If you don't remember it, ask your parents, ask your grandparents what happened.
It was just unbelievable, especially some of the hardships that people went through
because of this crisis. This crisis is going to be worse than that.
And that's why you need to be prepared.
And look, I don't care what people say in the comments, calling me a doomonger,
a fear mongerer, all these other stuff.
I couldn't care less because what I care about is the people, you as subscribers
that I view in my content, getting you ready for this.
That's all I care about.
People can say, well, even in the street, people can come up to me
as they do sometimes, say all this stuff.
I couldn't care less because I'm here to do this for you.
So just to get that out of the way.
Okay, look at all this.
Ministers are scrambling to deal with the threat of diesel shortages
with Brits already bleeding cash from the Middle East chaos.
And it's going to get worse because it's going to hit everything.
We're going to cover the other things it will hit.
There's holding crisis talks right now.
This is Rachel Reeves, Keir Starmer.
And we could go on and on.
There's just all these articles now dire warning amid petrol crisis.
What else?
This was the one from yesterday.
Isle of Man runs out of diesel fuel.
I mean, what about the one I did on Friday for Australia?
Outages.
Look at this.
This has just been updated.
These are the outages.
It's hitting France as well now.
200 gas stations are out in France.
This is going everywhere.
This was the one I also mentioned South Korea.
I said, watch them.
They will be the test case.
So will the Philippines.
And it's been announced.
South Korea is now rationing.
They're doing all sorts of things.
And let's look at this.
Well, what's happening with the Brent?
This is today.
Okay.
It might not look too crazy on the chart.
112.
It was 116 earlier.
117 in fact earlier.
But then when we zoom out on the one year chart,
look at this.
This is the one year chart here.
Averaging around 65 a barrel went out to 112.
And when I was explaining when we did that walk and talk,
I don't even know how many weeks ago it was now.
I said we're going to get here.
We're going to get to 100 easily.
Then it's going to be 110, 120.
You're going to see it go up to 150.
And that was my worst case scenario.
Well, that was calm.
What I said was calm compared to the forecast
that have been coming out today.
And these aren't forecasts from just random people
with a YouTube channel or wherever you're watching this.
Because people watch my videos on seven different platforms now.
YouTube's actually not the biggest platform.
I think it's third or fourth place now.
So wherever you're watching this,
this is not the worst case scenario anymore.
$150 a barrel oil.
The worst case is $200 now that have been...
This is from some of the top analysts.
Now let me tell you at $200 a barrel,
nothing works.
Nothing will work.
And we haven't even got on to food,
which we're going to get on to in a moment.
Which again, this is...
I'm not going to get into that.
You can tell I'm frustrated.
Today has been one of the...
I've never had so many personal attacks in one day.
People just emailing, doing everything possible,
commenting, all this stuff.
But I think...
And I was really thinking about that.
I was thinking why are people so angry with me?
All I've done is for the last three weeks
said what I think is going to happen and forecast this stuff.
It's not as if I've done anything to the world or caused it.
And I've realized what it is.
I was thinking about it earlier.
People are so afraid
and they've been so traumatized psychologically
by what the governments did during the lockdowns of 2020
and into 2021.
A lot of people cannot handle another lockdown.
Psychologically, they cannot handle another lockdown.
They can't handle what is being spoken about.
Energy lockdowns in effect.
So just by me mentioning these words,
energy lockdowns, people are losing their minds.
Literally.
And I think that's what's happening.
So you're going to see a lot of crazy stuff happening
as this gets worse because I just don't think people
are going to be able to handle the shocks that are going to come.
Supply chain shocks, fuel, energy, driving,
standard of living, right as we go into spring and summer
for UK, Europe, et cetera, and some other places.
This is going to be bad, ladies and gentlemen,
very bad indeed.
Now, I'll give you a quick update on a few other places.
Australia, we talked about Australia, New Zealand,
free public transport now across Victoria
and Tasmania to reduce car use.
Egypt, shops are closing as early now that they're closing.
Philippines, national emergency declared.
Subsidies for drivers reduce ferry services
four-day work week.
Oil imports heavily impacted.
Sri Lanka, fuel rationing has been introduced.
15 litres per week.
Can you imagine 15 litres per week if you work
and that's your job?
Public sector has been shut down midweek
to conserve energy.
Thailand air conditioning capped at 26 to 27 degrees Celsius.
For some of us in Europe that would,
but we would cook at that temperature.
Remote working has been encouraged there.
Dress codes relaxed.
Ethiopia, fuel prioritized for key sectors only.
Restrictions in place.
Myanmar, private vehicle restricted to alternate day use.
Vietnam, public encouraged to stay home,
cycle or car share.
Do not travel unless necessary.
Bangladesh, similar things.
They're having rolling blackouts.
Universities closed.
Slovenia has been the first EU country now
to introduce fuel rationing and there's limits
on how much individuals and businesses can purchase.
This list goes on.
I'm just telling you some of the main countries you'll know.
This list goes on and on and on.
But let me calm it down a bit
because you can tell I'm hyped up about all of this as well.
Not just because someone did something to me in the street today,
which really annoyed me.
It's really annoyed me on top of all these emails.
I don't get it. People are nuts.
But let me tell you the other thing.
In fact, I'll show you the headline.
Britain's gas imports to be cut despite energy security threat.
This man is...
What word can we use?
What word can we use here?
You can leave a word in the comments for me here on the stream.
What would you say describes this man?
He's now going to be cutting the gas imports
even though there's the energy security threat.
Words just makes me annoyed, makes me very angry.
So I want to come on to some of the sort of greater threats
and the outlooks.
Then we're going to go into food.
Then we're going to do an update
why this is going to get worse.
But I really do think that we're going to see some issues.
I think maybe lockdowns...
Maybe I won't use that word since it's so sensitive
and people are getting so angry about that word.
But we're going to see restrictions.
There's no way around it.
And I was listening to some of these commentators
and analysts and why they're saying that
oh, we could avoid it if we do this and we do that.
It's physically, mathematically, economically not possible
to do these things that they are saying.
I should have brought something as a prop here to show you
like a cake or something.
I should have cut up a cake.
But when you've got this amount of energy
and you take out this slice here
so you've only got this much left
with AI infrastructure and everything exploding
how can things be normal?
How can you have as much energy as normal?
You can't.
This is only going to get worse
as this crisis gets worse
and I'll tell you the rest shortly.
But this is not going to get better like everybody thinks.
So I think we're going to be seeing
more people working from home.
We're going to see a lot more work from home.
I think it won't be mandatory at first.
I think governments will suggest it
and they'll maybe make it mandatory on companies
so it's not them doing it.
But I think there'll be a lot more people working from home.
So it's like what are you going to be doing when you're home?
Do me a favour.
Don't sit there on Netflix
and some of these platforms
just wasting your time the whole time.
I spent my lockdown doing productive stuff.
Making YouTube videos for people
and making courses and all sorts of other things.
People said about my new course.
Oh, you've just made this new course now
because of this happening.
This new program, I'll show you which one.
This new program that I created,
I've been working on this for nine months,
digital income mastery.
So I haven't just created it because of this crisis.
We've all known that there's going to be an issue coming up
and there's going to be all these problems coming up
with that 2020 forecast I made that went to 2027
and then we went into 2030.
So if you're looking for something to do,
we'll come on to the food in a second
but just real quick, I'll leave the details for this
in the description.
There's a video you can watch.
It tells you all about this.
It's working from home business, basically.
So definitely have a look at that.
So let's continue on.
So we've covered that part, energy.
Okay, so why is this going to be worse?
Well, going over my notes here.
Okay, the other thing that's happened,
here we go, was the media is focusing on all of the
Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
where Ukraine was going to be helping.
It said that this was, you know,
all of these Russian attacks were just,
you know, did it deliberately.
Actually, the attacks were,
and this is unconfirmed,
but have a look into it for yourself,
but the attacks were Ukraine attacking
Russian energy infrastructure first.
Russia's now bombed Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
So there's roughly around 40%
of Russian energy infrastructure that's offline right now,
refineries, et cetera.
What are the refineries also doing some of the other plants?
They make fertilizer.
Now, the bit I said is not confirmed is that
there's a lot of reports that it was British military
that helped because they were storm shadow.
If it wasn't British, it was French,
but they were storm shadow missiles
that were used for the attacks.
So, I mean, why do this at this time?
I just don't get, it seems intentional to me.
The other one will come on to a bit later
was what's happening in the U.S.
A massive refinery is just, is offline as well now.
Big fire, they call it an explosion.
It was some sort of fire that's caused this.
You've got these fires rippling through,
I think it's Nebraska, Omaha,
something like that at the moment as well.
These massive fires just ripping through.
You've got planting season,
you've got all these harvesting seasons going on elsewhere.
There's not enough fertilizer.
This is just, this really is just terrible.
So, the mid-April forecast that's been pulled together
by some bodies that are quite respectable
is $120 to $150 barrels per barrel of oil
by mid-April here.
This is not good.
So, the emergency meeting, just looking,
it's still ongoing, yeah, it's still ongoing.
So, who's on this meeting?
Shell, BP, Centrica, Equinor, MERSC,
the shipping companies, I didn't know they were on it,
CMA as well, HSBC, Lloyds, Goldman Sachs.
And it's not looking good at all.
They've warned of fuel shortages come in.
There's no way to avoid these fuel shortages.
So, when the government says,
don't panic everything's in hand,
oh yeah, of course, Kia Stammer, I'm going to believe you
because you guys never lie.
You know that there's obviously a problem.
There's already shortages in London,
petrol stations in London.
Stammer's actually made a statement,
please act as normal.
There's no issues with fuel or energy supplies.
Absolute BS.
There's also, okay, why is he called then
for a Cobra meeting?
This is tomorrow, Tuesday 31st of March.
There's an emergency Cobra meeting
and they're going to be discussing
the economic impacts of the war.
Here we go, Sky News,
warning food prices are set to spike
in the UK due to the Iran war.
This has come out today.
I think I highlighted one point from it.
Okay, here we go.
Urea has soared from close to $300 a turn,
the turn of the year to almost $700
by the end of March.
And the $300 was already high
if you think about what it was prior to this.
That was already high.
You've got loads of people,
fertilizer price risks increase,
inflation disaster,
it's not an inflation disaster,
it's a food disaster.
If this doesn't get solved quick,
how are they going to solve it?
Because you think it's not just about,
well, you just use less fertilizer.
This is what some of them,
I saw on BBC News,
I know, don't watch BBC News,
but I have to keep you informed.
And this expert, I was thinking,
how is this, you know when you sat there
going shouting at the TV,
how is this guy an expert?
Oh, well farmers will just spread
the fertilizer more thinly
and they'll be more equitable
and sustainable with the food.
So stop using all these stupid words.
What are you talking about?
Basically they're going to spread the fertilizer
and it won't, it'll be fine,
everything's going to be, no,
if you use less fertilizer,
you're going to have a lower crop yield.
This is, I mean,
do they think people are stupid?
Oh, well, yeah, we haven't got enough fertilizer
for the harvest
and for planting and all this,
but it's going to be fine because
we'll find it from elsewhere.
Where? Where's elsewhere?
Where are you going to get it from?
When it's just, it's stuck.
It's making me so annoyed
all this stuff.
Here's some of,
let's open this.
Look at this.
So crude oil, 20% down.
LNG, 20% down.
Phosphate, 20% down.
Helium, which, well,
let's not even get into helium
right now.
If you've got any electronics, etc.
You're thinking of doing an upgrade, do it now.
Ammonia, 30%.
Sulfur, 45%.
Urea, 50%.
This is what is
blocked right now.
Where was, okay,
this was a tweet I saw,
or a post.
This is shut down after an attack.
This plant here,
this was the,
okay, these were Russian facilities.
Major phosphate producer.
Look at all of this.
Russia is restricting fertilizer exports as well.
I believe this is on the 1st of
April. China is cutting
exports.
Middle East, that's 30% of the supply
blocked as well.
My goodness.
Okay, let's go into fertilizer
a bit more then.
So if there's less fertilizer,
it means less yield.
It means less food. If this goes on
everywhere, and did you know Britain
doesn't even produce its own fertilizer
anymore? Do you know this?
And here's where it gets, there's a bit of a scam.
So it's incredibly energy intensive
to make. We know this.
We use a lot of LNG or natural
gas. So what's that?
60 to 70% of the cost of the
fertilizer is the gas.
It's the energy input. But then
the UK, deliberately
as part of net zero, adds on
all of these green taxes.
That's what they do. They bolt on all
these green taxes.
They call them carbon taxes
to help the planet and all
this other stuff. So all
is it all the plants or most of the
plants? I think it's most of the plants
then are shut down. But even if there is
some left, which I think there's a few but not
many, where's the energy
going to come from to make fertilizer? It's going to be
focused on other things.
So they're saying it will
lowered our carbon footprint as
a country. Yeah, but
all you've done is just passed it on to another country
and you've taken away your independence on
food supply.
Why would you do that?
And now the government's about
to introduce something called CBAM.
This is the carbon border
adjustment mechanism.
And this is an additional tax
of 24% on
imports.
24%
on imports
based on their carbon footprint
and this is to protect domestic
producers.
But there's no domestic
industry. If there is, there's
a handful of them.
This is just a tax. That's all it is.
This is going to be so bad.
I made this post
several days ago then
when was this? I put it on my X
I think it was about
three or four days ago.
This was the underground gas storage levels
and I don't think people kind of grasp
why this is so bad.
26th of March just came out four days
ago. The Netherlands
is below 6% and this was four
days ago so they're probably closer to
5% or could be
even lower than that in the fours right now.
Why is this bad?
The Netherlands produce
has these massive greenhouses
and they produce a lot
of food in these greenhouses.
What's going to happen if they run out of gas?
Where's the food going to come from?
Is the second largest
food exporter in the world?
80% of export vegetables
come from these greenhouses.
I don't have an answer
for you here ladies and gents by the way.
I really don't.
Half of the Dutch
fishing fleet
is now sitting idle
because the diesel prices
have skyrocketed.
The weekly fuel bills that were
and this is just an average, they've taken an average
of the fleet
$14,000 to $15,000
and now $34,000
so they priced it in USD
so they're waiting
for the diesel prices
to come down.
Good luck.
They're not going to be coming down.
These diesel prices are only going to be going up.
Now let's get on to this.
Let's shift slightly. Actually, before we shift
let me just talk about
the food aspect.
I mentioned this a week or two ago.
Does this mean that we're going to see
food shortages,
empty shelves, etc.
Yes and no.
If you remember
back in, what was it?
I don't know. 2020
when again, I said the same thing
as I'm saying today
about COVID and all the other lockdown supply
chains and again
you remember this, if you've been a subscriber
people laughed
they laughed and they laughed
at you as well and they said
oh you're crazy, you're a tin foil
hat conspiracy theorist.
I did a video where I walked
around the biggest
supermarket in Europe. It was the
Tesco
the RICO arena
I don't know what it's called now, I think they changed the name of the arena
but it was
the border of Coventry and the Neaton in the UK.
Do you remember that video?
There was nothing. I walked
around this thing.
It takes you 30 minutes just to walk around
this supermarket. It's
absolutely like a football field
or my five football fields.
It was empty.
There was nothing on any of the shelves
the biggest supermarket in Europe.
Am I saying that's going to happen?
Not necessarily.
But I think you're going to see supply chain
issues this time around.
I think you're going to see less food
or there'll be less
choices of the food that you normally
eat. If you normally eat
five different varieties of
potato
or tomato or tomato
you're probably going to see one
or two. You're going to see these
sort of things taking place.
You will see shortages of some things.
Does it mean that
people are going to starve?
Not really. I wouldn't say that
because there's emergency
food supplies and things like that
but there's going to be massive hits.
Prices are going to go up.
I'm going to say to you the same thing I said
five or six years ago.
If you buy long life food
anyway that you eat
or you store
or whatever, go out and get it now.
I'm not encouraging
panic buying. This is where people start
reporting the videos and then
YouTube takes my videos down for
causing crisis.
I'm not saying go out and panic buy
but if you're going to use this stuff anyway
canned food, tinned food,
pasta, things like that, dry food
then
I would go out and make sure you've got some now.
If you normally stock it
go up and stock your pantries now.
Again, I'm not saying there's going to be
empty shells but
why risk it?
If there's not going to be enough diesel and there's going to be shortages
how do you think the food
is going to get from these warehouses
to
the stores
if there isn't enough diesel?
They come in trucks by the way.
I know some of the greens think that they just
magically
you wave your magic wand
and the food just arrives
in the supermarket
and then you go in with a magic device
you just tap to pay for it
no, that's not how it works
there's a whole
very complex economy
behind that
obviously that's all tongue in cheek but
how some people live they just don't understand
other weekend
I was on a friend's farm
he just had all of his sheep
the sheep of all that just had their lambs
crazy experience
but I was there helping with all these
lambs and stuff
if you're not friends with a farmer
you don't have food supply
this is the stuff you need to be thinking about now
seriously
it's just basic stuff
if you don't have a small fuel can
as an emergency fuel can
you might want to get one before there's none left
you just got to think about the basic things now
whenever the government tells you
especially with the media behind it
everyone go out and do this right now
I do the opposite
so when they say
nobody go out and do these things
that's what I go and do
I just do the opposite of what they say
typically and I've always done really
well from that approach
so yeah I do think
be careful here ladies and gentlemen
I'm telling you this because you're my friends
that's why I'm saying it
even though it puts me at risk
remember the last time I landed at Heathrow airport
two police officers
goodness me I do not want this
every single time I fly
to London having to be
having police or whatever
it's just a pain in the ass
back side no swear I'm pain in the back side
so let's continue on with this
if you've never seen my videos before
some of you probably watching for the first time
you think what on earth who is this guy
what's he talking about all these things
yeah you've got six years of just
all this to catch up on
what else has been announced let's get into
all of this
oh we don't want to use
we don't want to see that some language there
but this is what's been deployed a British nuclear submarine
has been let's take off
the shed screen actually because I don't know
if there's any bad language on some of this
but this is the British submarine
HMS Anson it's arrived
in the Arabian sea
so I'll tell you why I think this is happening
and I'll tell you
yeah here we go so this was G7
there's just been a G7 meeting
hasn't been publicized very well
but it has been this meeting
and they have made a pledge
okay important word here
if you study linguistic semantics
this is an important word
it's a pledge it's like a declaration
it's not just oh we think
so what have they pledged
they're going to use all
necessary measures
to ensure the stability
of the energy market
what do you think that means
they are ready to use
all necessary measures
to safeguard the
energy market stability
and limit broader economic
spillovers from recent volatility
so even though they've said
they're not going to get involved in this war
let me tell you what I think is going to be happening
I think if this continues
on for much longer
I think they're going to have to do something
I really do I think
they're going to have to
they're going to do it
I think there's no
what other option is there
are they just going to
let the economies grind to a halt
lock down everybody
or
are they going to do some sort of military intervention
I'm not saying this is going to happen
I'm saying if this continues
for a prolonged period of time
even if they open the straight today
you realize it's going to be 6 to 12 months
before prices stabilize
do you realize this
6 to 12 months
if they open it today
and there's no sign of them opening it today
in fact if anything
there's a sign of the US
putting I think there's this one island
that they want to go on to
that's what's more likely to happen
don't even want to think about that situation
that is not going to be
good I don't know what you think
of that but
I've been watching some of the videos
of these troops who were going off to war
and their parents stood to attention
they're trying to keep a straight face
crying
crying the parents are there
there was a video of this
Marine that was really tough
and then his dad was absolutely
ripped, looked like he was an ex-Marine
you should have seen them
they just burst out crying
why because
I think everybody knows there's going to be
a lot of
casualties shall we say
in this conflict
I was a soldier I was a sergeant
I went to Iraq
I went to Afghanistan
I would not
want my kids going out
to this war let me just tell you that
I wouldn't it's not going to end well
it's not going to end well at all
there was also finance ministers
and central bankers on this meeting
and
they've been giving their forecasts as well
it doesn't say what their forecasts are
but we can guess it's going to say
if this isn't open it's going to be chaos
absolute chaos
so yeah 20% of the global
oil is shut down so
let me tell you some of the knock-on effects
we've already covered fertilizer
so this will be the 2026
harvest people say well it's already
in the ground it's already
in the ground so what are you talking about
Neil well what am I talking about
how do you think you get it out the ground
how do you think you
how do you think you get the crop
you think people walk around with sys
and just like they are scissors
you think they cut all these little bits of barley
no it's heavy machinery
what do you think the heavy machinery runs on
it's not solar panels or batteries
it's diesel
and that's the problem right now it's diesel
so fertilize we covered that
plastic production 15 to 20%
hit already
and you've seen all these
a lot of you have been sending in to me
oh my suppliers said prices are going to double
yeah I mean
I get it I see where this is going
jet fuel
jet fuel is going to be the big one
I think this is why they are called the IEA
is calling on
pretty much everywhere in the world to cut
flights by 40%
they've said a minimum of 40%
because there isn't enough jet fuel
and some of the refineries have been blown up as well
rubber production
down 20%
so tyres
I've got my tyre car booked in
tomorrow
I've spent some time today just thinking
about all of these things
and I've been thinking about what do I need
to do
right now
that is going to protect me
for the next three, me, my family, friends
we've got workers here
I have staff, things like that
what do I need to do
to protect everyone for the next
three months
and this is what I've been going over
I hardly slept last night
just thinking about all these things
and I realised I need to do this
and then as soon as I think of one thing
oh well hold on
another thing pops up like my tyre
I've been meaning to get it changed
for the last couple of weeks
I need to get a new tyre
thought I'd better do that now
hold on, there's no diesel
if I drive there
I'm going to be using some of the diesel to drive there
then I've got to drive back
you've got to think through all these things now
food, we've got food
we've got animals, we've got all the other
we've got livestock, we've got all this
so you've got to think through
all these things
we're doing a big building project
huge building project at the moment
have we got all that stuff in
no, there's a few things we were waiting on
okay, call all the suppliers today
get it all
coming across basically
so we've got all that to it
you've got to think of all these things
pharmaceuticals, it's already disrupted by 25%
so that's going to be affected
asphalt
30%
down
synthetic textile production
not that I wear synthetic textiles anyway
but that's down 20%
detergent and cleaning products
down 20%
paint and coating production
is going to be down 25% to 30%
so if you're in construction
automotive or anything like that
that's something to watch as well
adhesive and sealant
so down 30%
electronics, aerospace
this goes on and on and on
I was reading this report
I don't know this forecast of that well
but
his headline got my attention
he said I guarantee global food prices
will spike 40% to 60%
within 90 days as fertilizer
packaging, refrigeration
and transport cost compound
now the other point I want to bring up
is another thing that people
have been saying
and they've said well your forecast is wrong Neil
because
we've got all of these
emergency energy reserves right
oh there's 400 million barrels
oh and all this
no that's what was released
so first thing that was incorrect
someone said to me now that's what's been released
they've released a third
of the emergency stockpiles
400 million barrels well you look
if we're down 10 million barrels
20 million barrels a day that's not a lot
it's not going to last for very long
yeah the straight of her moves
is normally what 20 million barrels a day
and that's
gone
so it's not going to take long
what's that 20 days
20 days
and that's not the worst of it
we get to the worst of it in a second
this was the refinery
in case you're wondering
which refinery I was talking about
so this is Valero's
Port Arthur refinery
it's one of the largest
US refineries
450,000 barrels
of refining capacity
per day so that was
what I was talking about
this incident
yeah
Russia is banning gasoline exports
started on the 1st of April
but there's a lot of other things
because Iran's infrastructure
was struck
I just don't understand
why
why these
in war
I just think
it's wrong, I think it's morally wrong
to strike certain things
I do, I just think
it's the wrong approach
so all the
yeah, I'm not going to get into all of it
but there's certain things that are just
now the knock on effect
Iran has bombed right throughout the UAE
all sorts of
manufacturing
aluminium as well
or Americans call it aluminum
that's been hit one of the biggest ones in the world
4% of global supply
that's just been damaged
severely so this is all going to have a knock on effect
this was out of the financial
times here
this is going to be probably the longest live stream I've ever done
but this was out of the financial times
European jet fuel supplies
under threat as Iran
war halts flows
and we've got it here
it's expected to fall
about 420,000
barrels a day this week
that's down roughly 40% from last week
so
you saw how much it was already down last week
is now down 40%
now what did I say
that the recommendation from the IEA
was it was to cut
flights by 40%
and look at this
they said this a week before
this
while airlines had until recently
been supported by cargoes already
en route from the Gulf
which typically takes several weeks to arrive
flows from the Middle East have now largely
ceased
keyword
volumes have fallen 90%
with just over one million
barrels still in transit at the start of the week
ok so the question now then is
if they've fallen 90%
and this is what's in transit
and nothing has been coming out of the straight
since the start of this war
where are you going to get fuel
where's the jet fuel going to come from
I've actually got a business trip as well
to the US in a couple of weeks
I'm just dreading it
I'd rather just be here at home
where I can just
everything is set up and ready
but this trip is unavoidable
I have to go on this business trip
I've put it off for two years and I've got to
I've got to do it now
fuel price
this is
this is the last thing this is really important
so this is called
the
let me get you the image
I'm just trying to pull up the image
but it's the Bab Al Mandab
straight and this is
the Houtis
this basically carries 12%
of global trade ok
where's the image I'm trying to find you the
here we go I've got it
so this is it here
ok so we've already got
the straight of Hamoos closed off
and now
if we're going to have this other one closed off
by the Houtis
this is going to be absolute
chaos
it will get even worse
than it is right now
then that article I was just about to pull up there
Australia is Australia
asking people to work from home
yes it is
there's now one it's
Victoria I think yeah Victoria is asking
people to work from home now
for two days per
week and it's giving them the legal
right to do it so employers
can't say no and public
transport fares have been waived in two of
Australia's state to combat
rising fuel prices
I don't even know what else to say
ladies and gents
this is going to be
probably one of the most
the worst economic hits
since the Great Depression
I think it's probably going to be worse than the GFC
the great financial crisis of
2008 to 2012-13
I do not see
a way out of this now
especially if it gets worse
then
you've really got to prepare for the worst now
and you might say
you might think
people are
sort of catching on to this now
I still don't think the general public is aware
if you're watching this
if you've been watching me for the last four weeks
since I've been warning about this
four weeks ago now
you are still way ahead
of the general public
they do not know
what is about to hit
and you can tell they're just acting
they're just acting like everything's normal
I just can't believe it
I can't believe how everyone's acting like
everything is normal
and it's just going to be resolved
very shortly
food prices aren't going to go up
you're just making this up to create content
there's not going to be fuel shortages
you're just making this up to make content
there's not going to be energy
lockdowns
and Australia and New Zealand haven't got problems
you're just making this up to create content
this is genuinely what people are saying
they
I don't know what to say
as long as you're protecting
you're taking the right measures
that's all that matters to me to be honest
so thanks for watching
this is officially the longest live stream now
that I've ever done
so
yeah, new record today
I think there will be a lot of new records
coming up very shortly
so that's about it for today
ladies and gentlemen, thank you for watching
appreciate you, take care, God bless
God bless your family, see you on the next one