WEBVTT 00:01.010 --> 00:08.570 Breaking news, ladies and gentlemen, food and fuel shortages have now been confirmed. 00:09.090 --> 00:14.130 There is an emergency meeting being held right now within the United Kingdom. 00:14.290 --> 00:25.410 This is the UK government, as well as energy companies, food, farming bodies, banking, Goldman Sachs, all the top bankers are there. 00:25.410 --> 00:30.570 This is looking to go on late into the evening, which was the last update. 00:31.090 --> 00:39.710 But I'm going to go through everything for you now, bring you right up to speed since Friday's video so that you can get up to date now on everything that's happened. 00:39.930 --> 00:43.630 And I'll tell you, ladies and gents, this is not good. 00:44.170 --> 00:50.490 Okay, the stuff that I talked about three weeks ago is now pretty much almost all confirmed. 00:50.490 --> 00:55.230 So we're going to go over, in fact, let me just start with some of the stuff on the shared screen. 00:55.930 --> 00:56.210 Look at this. 00:56.730 --> 01:01.170 Keir Starmer to meet energy chiefs as fears of UK fuel shortage grow. 01:01.390 --> 01:05.670 Well, this was earlier today. He's already met with the energy chiefs. 01:05.670 --> 01:11.390 Drivers across the UK are facing soaring fuel costs and sporadic shortages at the pumps. 01:12.430 --> 01:18.190 The situation is rooted in one of the most significant disruptions to global oil supply in living memory. 01:18.190 --> 01:25.110 No, this is the worst energy crisis in history. It's official now. 01:25.490 --> 01:30.070 This is the worst ever. And we're going to get on to... I don't know how long this stream will be. 01:30.170 --> 01:31.030 It could be a longer one. 01:31.410 --> 01:35.850 But we're going to get on to why this is about to get a lot worse later on. 01:35.970 --> 01:37.790 I want to begin with all the important stuff. 01:37.790 --> 01:44.070 But really, you know, especially if you've got a spouse or partner or friends and family 01:44.070 --> 01:49.170 who call you a conspiracy theorist for being prepared for emergencies like this. 01:49.410 --> 01:50.670 I'll give you an example. 01:51.330 --> 01:57.550 I said last week the Isle of Man where I live is going to start running out of fuel very shortly. 01:58.290 --> 02:04.290 And the anger people fired at me for saying that was insane. 02:04.290 --> 02:07.410 And yet, what happened overnight, what's happened today? 02:07.730 --> 02:12.530 There's no diesel on the entire island. It's completely out of diesel. 02:13.130 --> 02:18.250 And then, because I prepared myself, made sure I had backups and other things, 02:18.630 --> 02:24.250 people now say, you're a... you caused this, you're a hoarder of fuel and all these other... 02:24.250 --> 02:28.210 I mean, you can't win, ladies and gents. Don't even try and get into it all. 02:28.270 --> 02:30.370 But look at these articles. Look at all of this. 02:31.050 --> 02:35.650 Drivers warn not to panic by amid fears of fuel shortages. 02:36.250 --> 02:41.210 There's growing concern that more widespread shortages may occur after isolated reports 02:41.210 --> 02:44.310 of petrol stations running out at the weekend. 02:44.550 --> 02:45.270 So this was at the weekend. 02:45.510 --> 02:49.430 This is... now we're talking UK here, but this is going to apply to a lot more countries. 02:50.110 --> 02:54.850 Number 10 crisis talks as the UK is warned of diesel shortages within weeks. 02:55.230 --> 02:58.770 And experts say this will be worse than the 1970s. 02:58.770 --> 03:01.470 Well, do you remember what happened in the 1970s? 03:01.870 --> 03:07.710 If you don't read the history books on it, this was absolutely one of the... 03:07.710 --> 03:13.350 It was the biggest shock the world has ever seen in the 1970s, the 1980s. 03:13.610 --> 03:17.890 If you don't remember it, ask your parents, ask your grandparents what happened. 03:18.470 --> 03:23.730 It was just unbelievable, especially some of the hardships that people went through 03:23.730 --> 03:29.070 because of this crisis. This crisis is going to be worse than that. 03:29.170 --> 03:31.110 And that's why you need to be prepared. 03:31.570 --> 03:35.730 And look, I don't care what people say in the comments, calling me a doomonger, 03:36.670 --> 03:38.890 a fear mongerer, all these other stuff. 03:39.010 --> 03:44.050 I couldn't care less because what I care about is the people, you as subscribers 03:44.050 --> 03:47.310 that I view in my content, getting you ready for this. 03:47.470 --> 03:48.670 That's all I care about. 03:49.010 --> 03:51.790 People can say, well, even in the street, people can come up to me 03:51.790 --> 03:53.590 as they do sometimes, say all this stuff. 03:54.130 --> 03:57.070 I couldn't care less because I'm here to do this for you. 03:57.330 --> 03:58.910 So just to get that out of the way. 03:59.270 --> 04:00.310 Okay, look at all this. 04:00.750 --> 04:03.830 Ministers are scrambling to deal with the threat of diesel shortages 04:03.830 --> 04:07.330 with Brits already bleeding cash from the Middle East chaos. 04:07.470 --> 04:10.090 And it's going to get worse because it's going to hit everything. 04:10.190 --> 04:11.750 We're going to cover the other things it will hit. 04:12.590 --> 04:14.670 There's holding crisis talks right now. 04:14.850 --> 04:16.530 This is Rachel Reeves, Keir Starmer. 04:17.230 --> 04:18.890 And we could go on and on. 04:18.890 --> 04:23.490 There's just all these articles now dire warning amid petrol crisis. 04:24.430 --> 04:25.230 What else? 04:25.430 --> 04:26.770 This was the one from yesterday. 04:26.910 --> 04:28.710 Isle of Man runs out of diesel fuel. 04:29.250 --> 04:34.330 I mean, what about the one I did on Friday for Australia? 04:34.950 --> 04:35.450 Outages. 04:35.670 --> 04:36.170 Outages. 04:36.570 --> 04:37.070 Look at this. 04:37.110 --> 04:38.290 This has just been updated. 04:38.530 --> 04:39.370 These are the outages. 04:39.790 --> 04:41.630 It's hitting France as well now. 04:41.790 --> 04:44.590 200 gas stations are out in France. 04:44.910 --> 04:45.970 This is going everywhere. 04:45.970 --> 04:48.630 This was the one I also mentioned South Korea. 04:48.870 --> 04:49.630 I said, watch them. 04:49.790 --> 04:50.770 They will be the test case. 04:50.950 --> 04:51.670 So will the Philippines. 04:52.570 --> 04:53.570 And it's been announced. 04:53.850 --> 04:56.110 South Korea is now rationing. 04:56.130 --> 04:57.810 They're doing all sorts of things. 04:58.130 --> 04:59.230 And let's look at this. 04:59.650 --> 05:00.790 Well, what's happening with the Brent? 05:01.230 --> 05:01.890 This is today. 05:02.210 --> 05:02.390 Okay. 05:02.790 --> 05:04.830 It might not look too crazy on the chart. 05:05.150 --> 05:05.650 112. 05:06.050 --> 05:07.950 It was 116 earlier. 05:08.490 --> 05:09.930 117 in fact earlier. 05:10.290 --> 05:12.630 But then when we zoom out on the one year chart, 05:13.050 --> 05:13.670 look at this. 05:13.670 --> 05:16.250 This is the one year chart here. 05:16.490 --> 05:19.690 Averaging around 65 a barrel went out to 112. 05:20.990 --> 05:24.170 And when I was explaining when we did that walk and talk, 05:24.490 --> 05:27.130 I don't even know how many weeks ago it was now. 05:28.090 --> 05:29.970 I said we're going to get here. 05:30.070 --> 05:31.630 We're going to get to 100 easily. 05:32.050 --> 05:34.130 Then it's going to be 110, 120. 05:34.710 --> 05:36.130 You're going to see it go up to 150. 05:36.650 --> 05:38.390 And that was my worst case scenario. 05:39.130 --> 05:40.370 Well, that was calm. 05:40.370 --> 05:43.550 What I said was calm compared to the forecast 05:43.550 --> 05:45.170 that have been coming out today. 05:45.450 --> 05:48.370 And these aren't forecasts from just random people 05:48.370 --> 05:51.690 with a YouTube channel or wherever you're watching this. 05:52.170 --> 05:56.210 Because people watch my videos on seven different platforms now. 05:56.630 --> 05:58.250 YouTube's actually not the biggest platform. 05:58.410 --> 06:00.270 I think it's third or fourth place now. 06:00.650 --> 06:01.890 So wherever you're watching this, 06:02.230 --> 06:05.430 this is not the worst case scenario anymore. 06:05.950 --> 06:07.730 $150 a barrel oil. 06:07.730 --> 06:11.150 The worst case is $200 now that have been... 06:11.150 --> 06:12.990 This is from some of the top analysts. 06:13.490 --> 06:15.370 Now let me tell you at $200 a barrel, 06:15.910 --> 06:16.830 nothing works. 06:17.550 --> 06:18.750 Nothing will work. 06:19.650 --> 06:21.610 And we haven't even got on to food, 06:21.690 --> 06:23.090 which we're going to get on to in a moment. 06:23.550 --> 06:26.130 Which again, this is... 06:26.130 --> 06:27.210 I'm not going to get into that. 06:28.050 --> 06:29.390 You can tell I'm frustrated. 06:30.030 --> 06:31.550 Today has been one of the... 06:31.550 --> 06:34.750 I've never had so many personal attacks in one day. 06:34.750 --> 06:37.990 People just emailing, doing everything possible, 06:38.550 --> 06:40.110 commenting, all this stuff. 06:41.230 --> 06:42.150 But I think... 06:42.150 --> 06:43.470 And I was really thinking about that. 06:43.570 --> 06:45.530 I was thinking why are people so angry with me? 06:46.010 --> 06:48.170 All I've done is for the last three weeks 06:48.750 --> 06:51.650 said what I think is going to happen and forecast this stuff. 06:51.850 --> 06:54.470 It's not as if I've done anything to the world or caused it. 06:54.530 --> 06:55.690 And I've realized what it is. 06:56.170 --> 06:57.510 I was thinking about it earlier. 06:58.250 --> 07:01.390 People are so afraid 07:01.390 --> 07:04.170 and they've been so traumatized psychologically 07:04.170 --> 07:08.430 by what the governments did during the lockdowns of 2020 07:09.090 --> 07:10.450 and into 2021. 07:11.410 --> 07:15.690 A lot of people cannot handle another lockdown. 07:16.170 --> 07:19.070 Psychologically, they cannot handle another lockdown. 07:19.410 --> 07:22.050 They can't handle what is being spoken about. 07:22.250 --> 07:23.830 Energy lockdowns in effect. 07:24.630 --> 07:26.310 So just by me mentioning these words, 07:26.550 --> 07:29.790 energy lockdowns, people are losing their minds. 07:29.790 --> 07:30.670 Literally. 07:31.250 --> 07:32.610 And I think that's what's happening. 07:32.770 --> 07:35.770 So you're going to see a lot of crazy stuff happening 07:35.770 --> 07:39.070 as this gets worse because I just don't think people 07:39.070 --> 07:42.070 are going to be able to handle the shocks that are going to come. 07:42.270 --> 07:45.190 Supply chain shocks, fuel, energy, driving, 07:45.290 --> 07:48.810 standard of living, right as we go into spring and summer 07:48.810 --> 07:52.930 for UK, Europe, et cetera, and some other places. 07:53.230 --> 07:55.730 This is going to be bad, ladies and gentlemen, 07:55.870 --> 07:57.150 very bad indeed. 07:58.150 --> 08:01.430 Now, I'll give you a quick update on a few other places. 08:02.170 --> 08:04.470 Australia, we talked about Australia, New Zealand, 08:04.850 --> 08:07.370 free public transport now across Victoria 08:07.370 --> 08:11.150 and Tasmania to reduce car use. 08:11.770 --> 08:16.810 Egypt, shops are closing as early now that they're closing. 08:17.410 --> 08:19.730 Philippines, national emergency declared. 08:20.970 --> 08:23.850 Subsidies for drivers reduce ferry services 08:23.850 --> 08:25.090 four-day work week. 08:25.550 --> 08:27.550 Oil imports heavily impacted. 08:27.750 --> 08:30.610 Sri Lanka, fuel rationing has been introduced. 08:31.190 --> 08:32.810 15 litres per week. 08:33.370 --> 08:36.550 Can you imagine 15 litres per week if you work 08:36.550 --> 08:37.870 and that's your job? 08:38.970 --> 08:42.070 Public sector has been shut down midweek 08:42.070 --> 08:43.030 to conserve energy. 08:43.610 --> 08:47.650 Thailand air conditioning capped at 26 to 27 degrees Celsius. 08:48.530 --> 08:50.010 For some of us in Europe that would, 08:50.090 --> 08:51.710 but we would cook at that temperature. 08:51.710 --> 08:54.410 Remote working has been encouraged there. 08:54.810 --> 08:56.150 Dress codes relaxed. 08:56.630 --> 09:01.170 Ethiopia, fuel prioritized for key sectors only. 09:01.970 --> 09:03.210 Restrictions in place. 09:03.510 --> 09:07.410 Myanmar, private vehicle restricted to alternate day use. 09:07.830 --> 09:10.290 Vietnam, public encouraged to stay home, 09:10.750 --> 09:12.090 cycle or car share. 09:12.410 --> 09:14.270 Do not travel unless necessary. 09:14.830 --> 09:16.350 Bangladesh, similar things. 09:16.470 --> 09:18.210 They're having rolling blackouts. 09:18.210 --> 09:19.570 Universities closed. 09:20.170 --> 09:22.930 Slovenia has been the first EU country now 09:22.930 --> 09:25.850 to introduce fuel rationing and there's limits 09:25.850 --> 09:29.170 on how much individuals and businesses can purchase. 09:29.590 --> 09:30.330 This list goes on. 09:30.650 --> 09:33.430 I'm just telling you some of the main countries you'll know. 09:33.910 --> 09:36.150 This list goes on and on and on. 09:36.990 --> 09:38.770 But let me calm it down a bit 09:38.770 --> 09:42.390 because you can tell I'm hyped up about all of this as well. 09:42.630 --> 09:46.290 Not just because someone did something to me in the street today, 09:46.290 --> 09:48.050 which really annoyed me. 09:48.350 --> 09:50.330 It's really annoyed me on top of all these emails. 09:50.730 --> 09:52.330 I don't get it. People are nuts. 09:52.750 --> 09:54.110 But let me tell you the other thing. 09:54.670 --> 09:55.950 In fact, I'll show you the headline. 09:57.550 --> 10:01.930 Britain's gas imports to be cut despite energy security threat. 10:02.450 --> 10:04.290 This man is... 10:05.390 --> 10:06.750 What word can we use? 10:06.930 --> 10:08.110 What word can we use here? 10:08.190 --> 10:10.990 You can leave a word in the comments for me here on the stream. 10:11.350 --> 10:13.590 What would you say describes this man? 10:13.590 --> 10:17.370 He's now going to be cutting the gas imports 10:17.370 --> 10:20.870 even though there's the energy security threat. 10:22.830 --> 10:27.470 Words just makes me annoyed, makes me very angry. 10:28.110 --> 10:30.890 So I want to come on to some of the sort of greater threats 10:30.890 --> 10:31.670 and the outlooks. 10:31.670 --> 10:32.590 Then we're going to go into food. 10:32.730 --> 10:33.570 Then we're going to do an update 10:33.570 --> 10:36.530 why this is going to get worse. 10:36.890 --> 10:40.590 But I really do think that we're going to see some issues. 10:40.590 --> 10:42.830 I think maybe lockdowns... 10:42.830 --> 10:45.770 Maybe I won't use that word since it's so sensitive 10:45.770 --> 10:47.850 and people are getting so angry about that word. 10:48.350 --> 10:50.090 But we're going to see restrictions. 10:50.930 --> 10:52.390 There's no way around it. 10:52.830 --> 10:54.610 And I was listening to some of these commentators 10:55.270 --> 10:57.450 and analysts and why they're saying that 10:57.450 --> 11:00.330 oh, we could avoid it if we do this and we do that. 11:00.730 --> 11:04.810 It's physically, mathematically, economically not possible 11:04.810 --> 11:06.930 to do these things that they are saying. 11:08.450 --> 11:12.330 I should have brought something as a prop here to show you 11:12.330 --> 11:13.950 like a cake or something. 11:14.130 --> 11:15.070 I should have cut up a cake. 11:15.290 --> 11:17.230 But when you've got this amount of energy 11:17.230 --> 11:20.310 and you take out this slice here 11:20.310 --> 11:21.650 so you've only got this much left 11:22.230 --> 11:24.670 with AI infrastructure and everything exploding 11:26.830 --> 11:28.490 how can things be normal? 11:28.930 --> 11:30.930 How can you have as much energy as normal? 11:31.070 --> 11:32.110 You can't. 11:32.230 --> 11:34.010 This is only going to get worse 11:34.010 --> 11:35.890 as this crisis gets worse 11:35.890 --> 11:38.650 and I'll tell you the rest shortly. 11:39.190 --> 11:41.910 But this is not going to get better like everybody thinks. 11:42.270 --> 11:43.510 So I think we're going to be seeing 11:44.130 --> 11:45.790 more people working from home. 11:46.010 --> 11:47.410 We're going to see a lot more work from home. 11:48.790 --> 11:52.490 I think it won't be mandatory at first. 11:52.690 --> 11:54.810 I think governments will suggest it 11:54.810 --> 11:57.010 and they'll maybe make it mandatory on companies 11:57.430 --> 11:58.770 so it's not them doing it. 11:59.610 --> 12:01.930 But I think there'll be a lot more people working from home. 12:02.390 --> 12:05.610 So it's like what are you going to be doing when you're home? 12:05.610 --> 12:06.830 Do me a favour. 12:07.010 --> 12:08.750 Don't sit there on Netflix 12:08.750 --> 12:11.050 and some of these platforms 12:11.790 --> 12:14.290 just wasting your time the whole time. 12:14.670 --> 12:18.650 I spent my lockdown doing productive stuff. 12:19.170 --> 12:21.270 Making YouTube videos for people 12:21.270 --> 12:24.250 and making courses and all sorts of other things. 12:24.570 --> 12:26.930 People said about my new course. 12:27.090 --> 12:29.210 Oh, you've just made this new course now 12:29.210 --> 12:30.210 because of this happening. 12:30.850 --> 12:32.830 This new program, I'll show you which one. 12:32.830 --> 12:35.290 This new program that I created, 12:35.670 --> 12:37.870 I've been working on this for nine months, 12:38.310 --> 12:39.570 digital income mastery. 12:39.830 --> 12:42.870 So I haven't just created it because of this crisis. 12:43.670 --> 12:46.430 We've all known that there's going to be an issue coming up 12:46.430 --> 12:49.490 and there's going to be all these problems coming up 12:49.490 --> 12:52.830 with that 2020 forecast I made that went to 2027 12:53.530 --> 12:55.410 and then we went into 2030. 12:56.290 --> 12:59.150 So if you're looking for something to do, 12:59.610 --> 13:00.850 we'll come on to the food in a second 13:00.850 --> 13:03.710 but just real quick, I'll leave the details for this 13:03.710 --> 13:04.290 in the description. 13:04.490 --> 13:05.390 There's a video you can watch. 13:05.530 --> 13:07.010 It tells you all about this. 13:07.230 --> 13:09.570 It's working from home business, basically. 13:10.350 --> 13:12.550 So definitely have a look at that. 13:13.010 --> 13:15.230 So let's continue on. 13:16.310 --> 13:18.430 So we've covered that part, energy. 13:19.130 --> 13:22.470 Okay, so why is this going to be worse? 13:23.190 --> 13:26.650 Well, going over my notes here. 13:28.190 --> 13:29.550 Okay, the other thing that's happened, 13:29.550 --> 13:34.430 here we go, was the media is focusing on all of the 13:34.430 --> 13:37.730 Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure 13:37.730 --> 13:39.810 where Ukraine was going to be helping. 13:40.150 --> 13:41.090 It said that this was, you know, 13:41.570 --> 13:43.130 all of these Russian attacks were just, 13:43.490 --> 13:44.490 you know, did it deliberately. 13:45.070 --> 13:48.150 Actually, the attacks were, 13:48.970 --> 13:50.310 and this is unconfirmed, 13:50.410 --> 13:51.650 but have a look into it for yourself, 13:52.110 --> 13:54.390 but the attacks were Ukraine attacking 13:54.390 --> 13:56.470 Russian energy infrastructure first. 13:56.470 --> 13:59.630 Russia's now bombed Ukrainian energy infrastructure. 13:59.890 --> 14:01.850 So there's roughly around 40% 14:01.850 --> 14:05.010 of Russian energy infrastructure that's offline right now, 14:05.210 --> 14:06.250 refineries, et cetera. 14:06.770 --> 14:09.510 What are the refineries also doing some of the other plants? 14:09.950 --> 14:10.690 They make fertilizer. 14:11.630 --> 14:13.470 Now, the bit I said is not confirmed is that 14:13.470 --> 14:16.810 there's a lot of reports that it was British military 14:16.810 --> 14:19.150 that helped because they were storm shadow. 14:19.510 --> 14:21.010 If it wasn't British, it was French, 14:21.030 --> 14:22.870 but they were storm shadow missiles 14:22.870 --> 14:24.250 that were used for the attacks. 14:24.250 --> 14:28.870 So, I mean, why do this at this time? 14:29.430 --> 14:32.690 I just don't get, it seems intentional to me. 14:33.270 --> 14:35.770 The other one will come on to a bit later 14:35.770 --> 14:37.830 was what's happening in the U.S. 14:38.230 --> 14:41.370 A massive refinery is just, is offline as well now. 14:41.590 --> 14:43.330 Big fire, they call it an explosion. 14:43.930 --> 14:46.270 It was some sort of fire that's caused this. 14:46.590 --> 14:48.350 You've got these fires rippling through, 14:49.210 --> 14:51.710 I think it's Nebraska, Omaha, 14:52.010 --> 14:53.170 something like that at the moment as well. 14:53.170 --> 14:55.170 These massive fires just ripping through. 14:55.570 --> 14:57.110 You've got planting season, 14:57.370 --> 15:00.190 you've got all these harvesting seasons going on elsewhere. 15:00.690 --> 15:01.970 There's not enough fertilizer. 15:03.270 --> 15:07.310 This is just, this really is just terrible. 15:08.250 --> 15:11.190 So, the mid-April forecast that's been pulled together 15:11.190 --> 15:14.210 by some bodies that are quite respectable 15:14.210 --> 15:22.550 is $120 to $150 barrels per barrel of oil 15:22.550 --> 15:24.590 by mid-April here. 15:26.410 --> 15:27.670 This is not good. 15:28.650 --> 15:30.670 So, the emergency meeting, just looking, 15:30.830 --> 15:33.190 it's still ongoing, yeah, it's still ongoing. 15:33.290 --> 15:34.190 So, who's on this meeting? 15:34.670 --> 15:38.930 Shell, BP, Centrica, Equinor, MERSC, 15:38.950 --> 15:40.790 the shipping companies, I didn't know they were on it, 15:40.910 --> 15:44.930 CMA as well, HSBC, Lloyds, Goldman Sachs. 15:45.650 --> 15:47.670 And it's not looking good at all. 15:48.230 --> 15:51.130 They've warned of fuel shortages come in. 15:51.130 --> 15:53.390 There's no way to avoid these fuel shortages. 15:54.090 --> 15:55.170 So, when the government says, 15:55.490 --> 15:57.210 don't panic everything's in hand, 15:57.470 --> 16:00.230 oh yeah, of course, Kia Stammer, I'm going to believe you 16:00.230 --> 16:01.830 because you guys never lie. 16:02.590 --> 16:04.670 You know that there's obviously a problem. 16:05.110 --> 16:06.630 There's already shortages in London, 16:06.890 --> 16:08.130 petrol stations in London. 16:11.190 --> 16:12.470 Stammer's actually made a statement, 16:12.710 --> 16:13.510 please act as normal. 16:13.730 --> 16:15.770 There's no issues with fuel or energy supplies. 16:16.390 --> 16:17.170 Absolute BS. 16:17.930 --> 16:20.170 There's also, okay, why is he called then 16:20.170 --> 16:21.270 for a Cobra meeting? 16:21.450 --> 16:24.470 This is tomorrow, Tuesday 31st of March. 16:24.630 --> 16:27.190 There's an emergency Cobra meeting 16:27.190 --> 16:29.250 and they're going to be discussing 16:29.250 --> 16:32.870 the economic impacts of the war. 16:38.790 --> 16:39.970 Here we go, Sky News, 16:40.430 --> 16:42.610 warning food prices are set to spike 16:42.610 --> 16:45.830 in the UK due to the Iran war. 16:45.930 --> 16:47.270 This has come out today. 16:47.790 --> 16:49.510 I think I highlighted one point from it. 16:49.930 --> 16:50.470 Okay, here we go. 16:50.470 --> 16:53.950 Urea has soared from close to $300 a turn, 16:54.330 --> 16:56.650 the turn of the year to almost $700 16:56.650 --> 16:57.970 by the end of March. 16:58.610 --> 17:00.670 And the $300 was already high 17:00.670 --> 17:03.330 if you think about what it was prior to this. 17:03.430 --> 17:04.170 That was already high. 17:04.870 --> 17:06.910 You've got loads of people, 17:07.110 --> 17:08.890 fertilizer price risks increase, 17:09.710 --> 17:10.870 inflation disaster, 17:11.030 --> 17:12.290 it's not an inflation disaster, 17:12.710 --> 17:14.630 it's a food disaster. 17:15.310 --> 17:17.090 If this doesn't get solved quick, 17:17.330 --> 17:18.770 how are they going to solve it? 17:18.770 --> 17:21.210 Because you think it's not just about, 17:22.130 --> 17:23.890 well, you just use less fertilizer. 17:24.130 --> 17:25.190 This is what some of them, 17:25.370 --> 17:27.370 I saw on BBC News, 17:27.690 --> 17:29.050 I know, don't watch BBC News, 17:29.130 --> 17:31.210 but I have to keep you informed. 17:31.910 --> 17:33.450 And this expert, I was thinking, 17:33.630 --> 17:35.210 how is this, you know when you sat there 17:35.210 --> 17:36.790 going shouting at the TV, 17:37.170 --> 17:38.290 how is this guy an expert? 17:38.850 --> 17:41.130 Oh, well farmers will just spread 17:41.130 --> 17:42.970 the fertilizer more thinly 17:42.970 --> 17:45.050 and they'll be more equitable 17:45.050 --> 17:46.450 and sustainable with the food. 17:46.450 --> 17:48.110 So stop using all these stupid words. 17:48.470 --> 17:49.430 What are you talking about? 17:50.810 --> 17:52.550 Basically they're going to spread the fertilizer 17:52.550 --> 17:54.210 and it won't, it'll be fine, 17:54.270 --> 17:55.230 everything's going to be, no, 17:55.570 --> 17:57.270 if you use less fertilizer, 17:57.530 --> 17:59.670 you're going to have a lower crop yield. 18:00.490 --> 18:02.070 This is, I mean, 18:02.130 --> 18:03.250 do they think people are stupid? 18:04.070 --> 18:05.890 Oh, well, yeah, we haven't got enough fertilizer 18:06.430 --> 18:07.610 for the harvest 18:07.610 --> 18:09.790 and for planting and all this, 18:09.870 --> 18:10.950 but it's going to be fine because 18:10.950 --> 18:12.370 we'll find it from elsewhere. 18:12.370 --> 18:14.710 Where? Where's elsewhere? 18:14.930 --> 18:15.790 Where are you going to get it from? 18:16.370 --> 18:18.170 When it's just, it's stuck. 18:19.390 --> 18:20.890 It's making me so annoyed 18:20.890 --> 18:21.730 all this stuff. 18:23.030 --> 18:24.590 Here's some of, 18:24.870 --> 18:25.650 let's open this. 18:26.650 --> 18:27.470 Look at this. 18:28.050 --> 18:30.490 So crude oil, 20% down. 18:31.050 --> 18:32.970 LNG, 20% down. 18:33.990 --> 18:35.170 Phosphate, 20% down. 18:35.450 --> 18:36.770 Helium, which, well, 18:36.850 --> 18:38.150 let's not even get into helium 18:38.150 --> 18:39.390 right now. 18:39.390 --> 18:41.050 If you've got any electronics, etc. 18:41.630 --> 18:43.590 You're thinking of doing an upgrade, do it now. 18:44.110 --> 18:45.470 Ammonia, 30%. 18:45.470 --> 18:46.990 Sulfur, 45%. 18:46.990 --> 18:48.890 Urea, 50%. 18:50.350 --> 18:51.570 This is what is 18:51.570 --> 18:52.590 blocked right now. 18:53.890 --> 18:55.190 Where was, okay, 18:55.230 --> 18:56.530 this was a tweet I saw, 18:56.870 --> 18:57.770 or a post. 18:59.090 --> 19:01.030 This is shut down after an attack. 19:01.470 --> 19:02.350 This plant here, 19:02.990 --> 19:03.990 this was the, 19:04.950 --> 19:07.680 okay, these were Russian facilities. 19:07.680 --> 19:09.860 Major phosphate producer. 19:11.680 --> 19:13.000 Look at all of this. 19:13.400 --> 19:15.940 Russia is restricting fertilizer exports as well. 19:16.080 --> 19:17.600 I believe this is on the 1st of 19:17.600 --> 19:19.460 April. China is cutting 19:19.460 --> 19:20.020 exports. 19:20.960 --> 19:23.040 Middle East, that's 30% of the supply 19:23.420 --> 19:24.660 blocked as well. 19:26.760 --> 19:27.840 My goodness. 19:30.200 --> 19:31.640 Okay, let's go into fertilizer 19:31.640 --> 19:32.680 a bit more then. 19:33.640 --> 19:35.340 So if there's less fertilizer, 19:35.340 --> 19:36.840 it means less yield. 19:37.100 --> 19:39.040 It means less food. If this goes on 19:39.040 --> 19:41.160 everywhere, and did you know Britain 19:41.160 --> 19:42.920 doesn't even produce its own fertilizer 19:42.920 --> 19:44.740 anymore? Do you know this? 19:45.020 --> 19:46.620 And here's where it gets, there's a bit of a scam. 19:47.220 --> 19:49.260 So it's incredibly energy intensive 19:49.260 --> 19:50.580 to make. We know this. 19:50.720 --> 19:53.140 We use a lot of LNG or natural 19:53.140 --> 19:55.060 gas. So what's that? 19:55.220 --> 19:57.160 60 to 70% of the cost of the 19:57.160 --> 19:58.940 fertilizer is the gas. 19:59.060 --> 20:01.100 It's the energy input. But then 20:01.100 --> 20:02.880 the UK, deliberately 20:02.880 --> 20:04.960 as part of net zero, adds on 20:04.960 --> 20:06.360 all of these green taxes. 20:07.220 --> 20:08.800 That's what they do. They bolt on all 20:08.800 --> 20:09.660 these green taxes. 20:10.980 --> 20:12.780 They call them carbon taxes 20:12.780 --> 20:14.860 to help the planet and all 20:14.860 --> 20:16.540 this other stuff. So all 20:17.140 --> 20:18.800 is it all the plants or most of the 20:18.800 --> 20:20.740 plants? I think it's most of the plants 20:20.740 --> 20:22.620 then are shut down. But even if there is 20:22.620 --> 20:24.820 some left, which I think there's a few but not 20:24.820 --> 20:26.580 many, where's the energy 20:26.580 --> 20:28.780 going to come from to make fertilizer? It's going to be 20:28.780 --> 20:30.620 focused on other things. 20:30.620 --> 20:32.560 So they're saying it will 20:32.560 --> 20:34.380 lowered our carbon footprint as 20:34.380 --> 20:36.240 a country. Yeah, but 20:36.240 --> 20:38.600 all you've done is just passed it on to another country 20:38.600 --> 20:40.580 and you've taken away your independence on 20:40.580 --> 20:41.540 food supply. 20:42.220 --> 20:43.760 Why would you do that? 20:45.020 --> 20:46.460 And now the government's about 20:46.460 --> 20:48.500 to introduce something called CBAM. 20:49.220 --> 20:50.440 This is the carbon border 20:50.440 --> 20:51.680 adjustment mechanism. 20:52.120 --> 20:54.260 And this is an additional tax 20:54.260 --> 20:56.260 of 24% on 20:56.260 --> 20:56.840 imports. 20:57.860 --> 20:59.060 24% 20:59.060 --> 21:00.040 on imports 21:00.640 --> 21:02.320 based on their carbon footprint 21:02.660 --> 21:04.920 and this is to protect domestic 21:04.920 --> 21:05.720 producers. 21:07.500 --> 21:08.860 But there's no domestic 21:08.860 --> 21:10.940 industry. If there is, there's 21:10.940 --> 21:11.980 a handful of them. 21:12.580 --> 21:14.820 This is just a tax. That's all it is. 21:16.580 --> 21:18.320 This is going to be so bad. 21:18.600 --> 21:20.920 I made this post 21:20.920 --> 21:22.760 several days ago then 21:22.760 --> 21:25.020 when was this? I put it on my X 21:25.020 --> 21:26.520 I think it was about 21:26.520 --> 21:27.660 three or four days ago. 21:28.220 --> 21:30.620 This was the underground gas storage levels 21:30.620 --> 21:32.800 and I don't think people kind of grasp 21:32.800 --> 21:34.200 why this is so bad. 21:34.880 --> 21:36.980 26th of March just came out four days 21:36.980 --> 21:38.380 ago. The Netherlands 21:38.380 --> 21:40.940 is below 6% and this was four 21:40.940 --> 21:42.780 days ago so they're probably closer to 21:42.780 --> 21:44.820 5% or could be 21:44.820 --> 21:47.020 even lower than that in the fours right now. 21:48.000 --> 21:49.040 Why is this bad? 21:49.580 --> 21:50.560 The Netherlands produce 21:50.560 --> 21:52.420 has these massive greenhouses 21:52.420 --> 21:54.520 and they produce a lot 21:54.520 --> 21:55.980 of food in these greenhouses. 21:56.320 --> 21:58.280 What's going to happen if they run out of gas? 22:00.900 --> 22:02.440 Where's the food going to come from? 22:04.800 --> 22:06.500 Is the second largest 22:06.500 --> 22:08.200 food exporter in the world? 22:08.780 --> 22:10.360 80% of export vegetables 22:10.360 --> 22:12.000 come from these greenhouses. 22:14.580 --> 22:16.660 I don't have an answer 22:16.660 --> 22:18.320 for you here ladies and gents by the way. 22:18.660 --> 22:19.720 I really don't. 22:20.600 --> 22:21.640 Half of the Dutch 22:23.720 --> 22:24.840 fishing fleet 22:24.840 --> 22:26.480 is now sitting idle 22:26.480 --> 22:28.180 because the diesel prices 22:28.180 --> 22:29.280 have skyrocketed. 22:29.780 --> 22:31.480 The weekly fuel bills that were 22:31.480 --> 22:33.600 and this is just an average, they've taken an average 22:33.600 --> 22:34.200 of the fleet 22:35.080 --> 22:36.740 $14,000 to $15,000 22:36.740 --> 22:39.500 and now $34,000 22:39.500 --> 22:40.800 so they priced it in USD 22:41.670 --> 22:43.060 so they're waiting 22:43.510 --> 22:45.500 for the diesel prices 22:45.500 --> 22:46.200 to come down. 22:46.900 --> 22:47.660 Good luck. 22:48.340 --> 22:49.460 They're not going to be coming down. 22:49.600 --> 22:52.320 These diesel prices are only going to be going up. 22:53.160 --> 22:53.940 Now let's get on to this. 22:54.080 --> 22:56.300 Let's shift slightly. Actually, before we shift 22:56.300 --> 22:58.060 let me just talk about 22:58.060 --> 22:59.500 the food aspect. 23:00.520 --> 23:02.240 I mentioned this a week or two ago. 23:02.680 --> 23:04.440 Does this mean that we're going to see 23:05.460 --> 23:06.400 food shortages, 23:07.000 --> 23:07.900 empty shelves, etc. 23:09.800 --> 23:10.500 Yes and no. 23:11.120 --> 23:12.180 If you remember 23:12.180 --> 23:14.380 back in, what was it? 23:14.380 --> 23:15.760 I don't know. 2020 23:15.760 --> 23:18.500 when again, I said the same thing 23:18.500 --> 23:19.360 as I'm saying today 23:19.360 --> 23:22.320 about COVID and all the other lockdown supply 23:22.320 --> 23:24.060 chains and again 23:24.060 --> 23:26.440 you remember this, if you've been a subscriber 23:26.440 --> 23:27.960 people laughed 23:27.960 --> 23:30.440 they laughed and they laughed 23:30.440 --> 23:32.200 at you as well and they said 23:32.200 --> 23:34.240 oh you're crazy, you're a tin foil 23:34.240 --> 23:35.720 hat conspiracy theorist. 23:36.180 --> 23:38.340 I did a video where I walked 23:38.340 --> 23:39.720 around the biggest 23:40.380 --> 23:42.040 supermarket in Europe. It was the 23:42.040 --> 23:42.780 Tesco 23:44.240 --> 23:45.740 the RICO arena 23:45.740 --> 23:48.420 I don't know what it's called now, I think they changed the name of the arena 23:48.420 --> 23:49.340 but it was 23:49.340 --> 23:51.820 the border of Coventry and the Neaton in the UK. 23:52.280 --> 23:53.620 Do you remember that video? 23:54.200 --> 23:56.060 There was nothing. I walked 23:56.060 --> 23:56.800 around this thing. 23:57.400 --> 24:00.180 It takes you 30 minutes just to walk around 24:00.180 --> 24:01.740 this supermarket. It's 24:01.740 --> 24:03.640 absolutely like a football field 24:03.640 --> 24:05.580 or my five football fields. 24:05.760 --> 24:06.720 It was empty. 24:07.380 --> 24:09.420 There was nothing on any of the shelves 24:09.420 --> 24:11.760 the biggest supermarket in Europe. 24:12.820 --> 24:14.320 Am I saying that's going to happen? 24:15.000 --> 24:15.840 Not necessarily. 24:16.360 --> 24:17.820 But I think you're going to see supply chain 24:17.820 --> 24:18.940 issues this time around. 24:19.500 --> 24:20.960 I think you're going to see less food 24:20.960 --> 24:23.060 or there'll be less 24:23.060 --> 24:25.240 choices of the food that you normally 24:25.240 --> 24:26.940 eat. If you normally eat 24:26.940 --> 24:29.000 five different varieties of 24:30.060 --> 24:30.620 potato 24:30.620 --> 24:32.600 or tomato or tomato 24:34.060 --> 24:35.480 you're probably going to see one 24:35.480 --> 24:37.420 or two. You're going to see these 24:37.420 --> 24:38.520 sort of things taking place. 24:39.260 --> 24:41.160 You will see shortages of some things. 24:41.440 --> 24:42.420 Does it mean that 24:43.980 --> 24:45.140 people are going to starve? 24:45.780 --> 24:47.600 Not really. I wouldn't say that 24:48.100 --> 24:49.160 because there's emergency 24:49.160 --> 24:51.140 food supplies and things like that 24:51.140 --> 24:53.060 but there's going to be massive hits. 24:53.600 --> 24:54.880 Prices are going to go up. 24:55.180 --> 24:57.040 I'm going to say to you the same thing I said 24:57.040 --> 24:58.200 five or six years ago. 24:58.940 --> 25:01.240 If you buy long life food 25:01.240 --> 25:02.920 anyway that you eat 25:02.920 --> 25:05.100 or you store 25:05.100 --> 25:07.420 or whatever, go out and get it now. 25:08.140 --> 25:08.960 I'm not encouraging 25:08.960 --> 25:10.720 panic buying. This is where people start 25:10.720 --> 25:12.240 reporting the videos and then 25:12.240 --> 25:14.760 YouTube takes my videos down for 25:14.760 --> 25:16.020 causing crisis. 25:17.200 --> 25:18.880 I'm not saying go out and panic buy 25:18.880 --> 25:20.700 but if you're going to use this stuff anyway 25:20.700 --> 25:22.420 canned food, tinned food, 25:22.760 --> 25:25.060 pasta, things like that, dry food 25:26.540 --> 25:26.980 then 25:26.980 --> 25:28.980 I would go out and make sure you've got some now. 25:29.260 --> 25:30.480 If you normally stock it 25:30.480 --> 25:32.660 go up and stock your pantries now. 25:32.660 --> 25:34.780 Again, I'm not saying there's going to be 25:34.780 --> 25:36.400 empty shells but 25:36.400 --> 25:37.800 why risk it? 25:38.120 --> 25:40.420 If there's not going to be enough diesel and there's going to be shortages 25:40.420 --> 25:42.280 how do you think the food 25:42.280 --> 25:44.700 is going to get from these warehouses 25:45.940 --> 25:46.420 to 25:47.040 --> 25:48.000 the stores 25:48.640 --> 25:50.500 if there isn't enough diesel? 25:50.740 --> 25:52.180 They come in trucks by the way. 25:52.600 --> 25:54.760 I know some of the greens think that they just 25:54.760 --> 25:55.400 magically 25:55.400 --> 25:58.260 you wave your magic wand 25:58.260 --> 25:59.880 and the food just arrives 25:59.880 --> 26:01.240 in the supermarket 26:01.240 --> 26:03.900 and then you go in with a magic device 26:03.900 --> 26:05.480 you just tap to pay for it 26:05.480 --> 26:07.500 no, that's not how it works 26:07.500 --> 26:08.980 there's a whole 26:10.240 --> 26:12.020 very complex economy 26:12.020 --> 26:13.240 behind that 26:13.640 --> 26:15.200 obviously that's all tongue in cheek but 26:15.200 --> 26:18.220 how some people live they just don't understand 26:18.220 --> 26:19.660 other weekend 26:19.660 --> 26:21.160 I was on a friend's farm 26:21.160 --> 26:23.580 he just had all of his sheep 26:23.580 --> 26:26.300 the sheep of all that just had their lambs 26:26.300 --> 26:28.100 crazy experience 26:28.100 --> 26:30.340 but I was there helping with all these 26:30.340 --> 26:31.720 lambs and stuff 26:31.720 --> 26:34.400 if you're not friends with a farmer 26:34.400 --> 26:36.660 you don't have food supply 26:36.660 --> 26:39.060 this is the stuff you need to be thinking about now 26:40.280 --> 26:40.840 seriously 26:41.600 --> 26:43.180 it's just basic stuff 26:43.180 --> 26:44.960 if you don't have a small fuel can 26:44.960 --> 26:46.320 as an emergency fuel can 26:46.320 --> 26:48.920 you might want to get one before there's none left 26:48.920 --> 26:51.400 you just got to think about the basic things now 26:51.400 --> 26:53.420 whenever the government tells you 26:53.420 --> 26:55.640 especially with the media behind it 26:55.640 --> 26:57.560 everyone go out and do this right now 26:58.100 --> 26:59.300 I do the opposite 26:59.300 --> 27:00.800 so when they say 27:01.330 --> 27:03.160 nobody go out and do these things 27:03.160 --> 27:04.860 that's what I go and do 27:04.860 --> 27:07.020 I just do the opposite of what they say 27:07.510 --> 27:09.620 typically and I've always done really 27:09.620 --> 27:11.360 well from that approach 27:12.160 --> 27:13.460 so yeah I do think 27:13.460 --> 27:15.440 be careful here ladies and gentlemen 27:15.440 --> 27:16.800 I'm telling you this because you're my friends 27:17.430 --> 27:18.940 that's why I'm saying it 27:18.940 --> 27:20.920 even though it puts me at risk 27:21.560 --> 27:23.820 remember the last time I landed at Heathrow airport 27:23.820 --> 27:25.200 two police officers 27:25.200 --> 27:27.340 goodness me I do not want this 27:27.340 --> 27:29.100 every single time I fly 27:29.100 --> 27:31.060 to London having to be 27:31.060 --> 27:32.960 having police or whatever 27:32.960 --> 27:34.460 it's just a pain in the ass 27:34.460 --> 27:37.280 back side no swear I'm pain in the back side 27:37.280 --> 27:39.220 so let's continue on with this 27:39.900 --> 27:41.800 if you've never seen my videos before 27:41.800 --> 27:43.240 some of you probably watching for the first time 27:43.240 --> 27:44.960 you think what on earth who is this guy 27:44.960 --> 27:46.960 what's he talking about all these things 27:46.960 --> 27:49.360 yeah you've got six years of just 27:49.360 --> 27:50.540 all this to catch up on 27:51.060 --> 27:53.280 what else has been announced let's get into 27:53.280 --> 27:53.840 all of this 27:55.600 --> 27:56.900 oh we don't want to use 27:56.900 --> 27:58.400 we don't want to see that some language there 27:58.400 --> 28:01.480 but this is what's been deployed a British nuclear submarine 28:01.480 --> 28:03.340 has been let's take off 28:03.340 --> 28:04.960 the shed screen actually because I don't know 28:04.960 --> 28:06.960 if there's any bad language on some of this 28:06.960 --> 28:08.840 but this is the British submarine 28:08.840 --> 28:10.960 HMS Anson it's arrived 28:10.960 --> 28:12.660 in the Arabian sea 28:13.340 --> 28:15.340 so I'll tell you why I think this is happening 28:16.060 --> 28:16.980 and I'll tell you 28:16.980 --> 28:19.320 yeah here we go so this was G7 28:19.320 --> 28:21.180 there's just been a G7 meeting 28:21.180 --> 28:23.400 hasn't been publicized very well 28:23.400 --> 28:25.020 but it has been this meeting 28:25.020 --> 28:27.280 and they have made a pledge 28:27.280 --> 28:29.520 okay important word here 28:29.520 --> 28:31.560 if you study linguistic semantics 28:31.560 --> 28:33.140 this is an important word 28:33.140 --> 28:35.200 it's a pledge it's like a declaration 28:35.200 --> 28:37.140 it's not just oh we think 28:37.140 --> 28:39.040 so what have they pledged 28:39.040 --> 28:40.620 they're going to use all 28:41.180 --> 28:42.460 necessary measures 28:42.910 --> 28:44.740 to ensure the stability 28:44.740 --> 28:46.320 of the energy market 28:47.170 --> 28:48.300 what do you think that means 28:49.220 --> 28:50.720 they are ready to use 28:50.720 --> 28:52.460 all necessary measures 28:52.840 --> 28:54.680 to safeguard the 28:54.680 --> 28:56.180 energy market stability 28:56.180 --> 28:58.140 and limit broader economic 28:58.140 --> 29:00.300 spillovers from recent volatility 29:00.300 --> 29:02.700 so even though they've said 29:02.700 --> 29:04.280 they're not going to get involved in this war 29:04.280 --> 29:06.700 let me tell you what I think is going to be happening 29:06.700 --> 29:08.720 I think if this continues 29:08.720 --> 29:10.600 on for much longer 29:11.140 --> 29:13.040 I think they're going to have to do something 29:13.040 --> 29:14.900 I really do I think 29:14.900 --> 29:16.180 they're going to have to 29:16.180 --> 29:18.120 they're going to do it 29:18.120 --> 29:20.060 I think there's no 29:20.060 --> 29:22.000 what other option is there 29:22.800 --> 29:24.040 are they just going to 29:24.040 --> 29:26.460 let the economies grind to a halt 29:26.460 --> 29:27.980 lock down everybody 29:28.580 --> 29:29.100 or 29:29.100 --> 29:32.220 are they going to do some sort of military intervention 29:33.000 --> 29:34.620 I'm not saying this is going to happen 29:34.620 --> 29:36.220 I'm saying if this continues 29:36.220 --> 29:38.100 for a prolonged period of time 29:38.100 --> 29:40.100 even if they open the straight today 29:40.100 --> 29:42.860 you realize it's going to be 6 to 12 months 29:42.860 --> 29:44.640 before prices stabilize 29:45.200 --> 29:46.880 do you realize this 29:46.880 --> 29:48.820 6 to 12 months 29:48.820 --> 29:50.340 if they open it today 29:50.340 --> 29:53.180 and there's no sign of them opening it today 29:53.180 --> 29:54.420 in fact if anything 29:54.420 --> 29:56.680 there's a sign of the US 29:56.680 --> 29:59.180 putting I think there's this one island 29:59.180 --> 30:00.280 that they want to go on to 30:00.280 --> 30:02.540 that's what's more likely to happen 30:03.400 --> 30:05.340 don't even want to think about that situation 30:05.340 --> 30:07.060 that is not going to be 30:07.060 --> 30:09.100 good I don't know what you think 30:09.100 --> 30:09.720 of that but 30:11.440 --> 30:13.100 I've been watching some of the videos 30:13.100 --> 30:14.880 of these troops who were going off to war 30:14.880 --> 30:17.080 and their parents stood to attention 30:17.080 --> 30:19.380 they're trying to keep a straight face 30:19.980 --> 30:20.540 crying 30:21.040 --> 30:22.500 crying the parents are there 30:22.500 --> 30:24.600 there was a video of this 30:25.300 --> 30:27.140 Marine that was really tough 30:27.140 --> 30:28.980 and then his dad was absolutely 30:28.980 --> 30:31.440 ripped, looked like he was an ex-Marine 30:31.440 --> 30:32.520 you should have seen them 30:32.520 --> 30:35.100 they just burst out crying 30:35.100 --> 30:36.180 why because 30:36.180 --> 30:39.040 I think everybody knows there's going to be 30:39.040 --> 30:40.340 a lot of 30:40.940 --> 30:42.320 casualties shall we say 30:42.320 --> 30:43.280 in this conflict 30:44.160 --> 30:46.560 I was a soldier I was a sergeant 30:46.560 --> 30:48.040 I went to Iraq 30:48.040 --> 30:49.120 I went to Afghanistan 30:50.500 --> 30:52.000 I would not 30:52.580 --> 30:54.680 want my kids going out 30:54.680 --> 30:56.660 to this war let me just tell you that 30:56.660 --> 30:58.800 I wouldn't it's not going to end well 30:58.800 --> 31:00.440 it's not going to end well at all 31:01.640 --> 31:04.340 there was also finance ministers 31:04.340 --> 31:06.600 and central bankers on this meeting 31:07.760 --> 31:08.320 and 31:08.320 --> 31:10.200 they've been giving their forecasts as well 31:10.200 --> 31:11.840 it doesn't say what their forecasts are 31:11.840 --> 31:14.020 but we can guess it's going to say 31:14.020 --> 31:16.320 if this isn't open it's going to be chaos 31:17.200 --> 31:18.000 absolute chaos 31:20.800 --> 31:22.280 so yeah 20% of the global 31:22.280 --> 31:24.000 oil is shut down so 31:24.000 --> 31:25.640 let me tell you some of the knock-on effects 31:25.640 --> 31:27.180 we've already covered fertilizer 31:28.540 --> 31:30.100 so this will be the 2026 31:30.100 --> 31:32.160 harvest people say well it's already 31:32.160 --> 31:34.200 in the ground it's already 31:34.200 --> 31:36.280 in the ground so what are you talking about 31:36.280 --> 31:37.980 Neil well what am I talking about 31:37.980 --> 31:39.680 how do you think you get it out the ground 31:40.280 --> 31:41.180 how do you think you 31:41.640 --> 31:43.120 how do you think you get the crop 31:43.120 --> 31:45.640 you think people walk around with sys 31:45.640 --> 31:47.260 and just like they are scissors 31:47.260 --> 31:49.120 you think they cut all these little bits of barley 31:49.120 --> 31:50.900 no it's heavy machinery 31:50.900 --> 31:53.260 what do you think the heavy machinery runs on 31:53.260 --> 31:55.040 it's not solar panels or batteries 31:55.040 --> 31:56.280 it's diesel 31:56.860 --> 31:59.440 and that's the problem right now it's diesel 32:00.340 --> 32:01.840 so fertilize we covered that 32:01.840 --> 32:04.400 plastic production 15 to 20% 32:04.400 --> 32:05.040 hit already 32:05.600 --> 32:06.840 and you've seen all these 32:06.840 --> 32:09.000 a lot of you have been sending in to me 32:09.000 --> 32:11.100 oh my suppliers said prices are going to double 32:11.100 --> 32:12.820 yeah I mean 32:13.660 --> 32:15.440 I get it I see where this is going 32:15.920 --> 32:16.800 jet fuel 32:16.800 --> 32:18.800 jet fuel is going to be the big one 32:18.800 --> 32:21.300 I think this is why they are called the IEA 32:21.300 --> 32:22.640 is calling on 32:22.640 --> 32:25.080 pretty much everywhere in the world to cut 32:25.700 --> 32:27.120 flights by 40% 32:27.120 --> 32:29.240 they've said a minimum of 40% 32:29.240 --> 32:30.680 because there isn't enough jet fuel 32:30.680 --> 32:33.680 and some of the refineries have been blown up as well 32:34.320 --> 32:35.380 rubber production 32:35.380 --> 32:36.600 down 20% 32:36.600 --> 32:37.600 so tyres 32:37.600 --> 32:40.680 I've got my tyre car booked in 32:40.680 --> 32:41.080 tomorrow 32:41.080 --> 32:44.820 I've spent some time today just thinking 32:44.820 --> 32:46.120 about all of these things 32:46.640 --> 32:48.860 and I've been thinking about what do I need 32:48.860 --> 32:49.480 to do 32:50.060 --> 32:51.060 right now 32:51.640 --> 32:53.680 that is going to protect me 32:53.680 --> 32:56.120 for the next three, me, my family, friends 32:56.680 --> 32:57.880 we've got workers here 32:57.880 --> 32:59.560 I have staff, things like that 32:59.560 --> 33:00.980 what do I need to do 33:00.980 --> 33:03.320 to protect everyone for the next 33:03.700 --> 33:04.300 three months 33:04.300 --> 33:08.360 and this is what I've been going over 33:08.840 --> 33:10.100 I hardly slept last night 33:10.100 --> 33:11.680 just thinking about all these things 33:11.680 --> 33:13.900 and I realised I need to do this 33:13.900 --> 33:15.760 and then as soon as I think of one thing 33:15.760 --> 33:17.200 oh well hold on 33:17.200 --> 33:19.360 another thing pops up like my tyre 33:19.700 --> 33:21.600 I've been meaning to get it changed 33:21.600 --> 33:22.600 for the last couple of weeks 33:22.600 --> 33:24.320 I need to get a new tyre 33:24.320 --> 33:25.740 thought I'd better do that now 33:25.740 --> 33:27.300 hold on, there's no diesel 33:27.980 --> 33:29.460 if I drive there 33:29.460 --> 33:31.740 I'm going to be using some of the diesel to drive there 33:31.740 --> 33:32.900 then I've got to drive back 33:33.360 --> 33:35.320 you've got to think through all these things now 33:36.180 --> 33:37.800 food, we've got food 33:37.800 --> 33:39.240 we've got animals, we've got all the other 33:39.240 --> 33:40.580 we've got livestock, we've got all this 33:40.580 --> 33:44.740 so you've got to think through 33:44.740 --> 33:45.360 all these things 33:46.120 --> 33:47.740 we're doing a big building project 33:48.640 --> 33:50.420 huge building project at the moment 33:50.940 --> 33:52.340 have we got all that stuff in 33:52.340 --> 33:54.040 no, there's a few things we were waiting on 33:54.040 --> 33:56.020 okay, call all the suppliers today 33:56.020 --> 33:56.780 get it all 33:58.160 --> 33:59.520 coming across basically 33:59.520 --> 34:01.140 so we've got all that to it 34:01.140 --> 34:02.760 you've got to think of all these things 34:04.520 --> 34:07.120 pharmaceuticals, it's already disrupted by 25% 34:07.720 --> 34:09.160 so that's going to be affected 34:09.160 --> 34:09.980 asphalt 34:10.800 --> 34:11.760 30% 34:12.340 --> 34:12.620 down 34:12.620 --> 34:14.800 synthetic textile production 34:14.800 --> 34:16.860 not that I wear synthetic textiles anyway 34:16.860 --> 34:18.620 but that's down 20% 34:19.680 --> 34:21.100 detergent and cleaning products 34:21.100 --> 34:21.980 down 20% 34:22.620 --> 34:24.300 paint and coating production 34:24.300 --> 34:27.840 is going to be down 25% to 30% 34:27.840 --> 34:28.920 so if you're in construction 34:28.920 --> 34:31.540 automotive or anything like that 34:31.540 --> 34:33.300 that's something to watch as well 34:33.300 --> 34:35.000 adhesive and sealant 34:35.000 --> 34:36.160 so down 30% 34:36.160 --> 34:38.140 electronics, aerospace 34:39.440 --> 34:41.360 this goes on and on and on 34:42.680 --> 34:44.140 I was reading this report 34:44.140 --> 34:46.740 I don't know this forecast of that well 34:46.740 --> 34:47.420 but 34:47.420 --> 34:49.620 his headline got my attention 34:49.620 --> 34:52.780 he said I guarantee global food prices 34:52.780 --> 34:54.700 will spike 40% to 60% 34:54.700 --> 34:56.660 within 90 days as fertilizer 34:56.660 --> 34:58.160 packaging, refrigeration 34:58.160 --> 35:00.080 and transport cost compound 35:06.150 --> 35:08.310 now the other point I want to bring up 35:08.310 --> 35:10.190 is another thing that people 35:10.190 --> 35:11.150 have been saying 35:14.190 --> 35:16.550 and they've said well your forecast is wrong Neil 35:16.550 --> 35:16.910 because 35:17.690 --> 35:19.790 we've got all of these 35:19.790 --> 35:21.950 emergency energy reserves right 35:22.670 --> 35:24.570 oh there's 400 million barrels 35:24.570 --> 35:25.910 oh and all this 35:25.910 --> 35:27.150 no that's what was released 35:27.150 --> 35:28.690 so first thing that was incorrect 35:29.830 --> 35:32.000 someone said to me now that's what's been released 35:32.550 --> 35:33.790 they've released a third 35:33.790 --> 35:35.170 of the emergency stockpiles 35:35.170 --> 35:37.390 400 million barrels well you look 35:37.390 --> 35:39.210 if we're down 10 million barrels 35:39.210 --> 35:41.930 20 million barrels a day that's not a lot 35:41.930 --> 35:43.890 it's not going to last for very long 35:44.690 --> 35:46.010 yeah the straight of her moves 35:46.010 --> 35:48.250 is normally what 20 million barrels a day 35:48.870 --> 35:49.930 and that's 35:50.510 --> 35:51.070 gone 35:51.070 --> 35:53.790 so it's not going to take long 35:54.890 --> 35:56.250 what's that 20 days 35:57.070 --> 35:58.030 20 days 35:58.030 --> 36:00.510 and that's not the worst of it 36:01.630 --> 36:03.730 we get to the worst of it in a second 36:04.710 --> 36:06.470 this was the refinery 36:06.470 --> 36:08.590 in case you're wondering 36:08.590 --> 36:10.710 which refinery I was talking about 36:10.710 --> 36:12.570 so this is Valero's 36:12.570 --> 36:14.030 Port Arthur refinery 36:14.970 --> 36:16.510 it's one of the largest 36:16.510 --> 36:17.990 US refineries 36:18.510 --> 36:20.330 450,000 barrels 36:20.330 --> 36:21.750 of refining capacity 36:22.510 --> 36:23.830 per day so that was 36:24.200 --> 36:25.350 what I was talking about 36:25.350 --> 36:27.050 this incident 36:31.070 --> 36:31.810 yeah 36:31.810 --> 36:33.870 Russia is banning gasoline exports 36:33.870 --> 36:35.350 started on the 1st of April 36:36.320 --> 36:37.650 but there's a lot of other things 36:37.650 --> 36:40.770 because Iran's infrastructure 36:40.770 --> 36:41.470 was struck 36:41.470 --> 36:43.010 I just don't understand 36:43.010 --> 36:43.490 why 36:44.890 --> 36:46.050 why these 36:47.270 --> 36:48.430 in war 36:48.940 --> 36:49.890 I just think 36:49.890 --> 36:52.610 it's wrong, I think it's morally wrong 36:52.610 --> 36:54.890 to strike certain things 36:54.890 --> 36:56.850 I do, I just think 36:57.730 --> 36:59.270 it's the wrong approach 36:59.270 --> 37:00.190 so all the 37:01.250 --> 37:03.350 yeah, I'm not going to get into all of it 37:03.350 --> 37:04.850 but there's certain things that are just 37:04.850 --> 37:06.730 now the knock on effect 37:06.730 --> 37:09.150 Iran has bombed right throughout the UAE 37:09.150 --> 37:10.390 all sorts of 37:11.290 --> 37:11.810 manufacturing 37:12.630 --> 37:13.830 aluminium as well 37:13.830 --> 37:15.270 or Americans call it aluminum 37:16.170 --> 37:18.630 that's been hit one of the biggest ones in the world 37:18.630 --> 37:20.550 4% of global supply 37:20.550 --> 37:22.410 that's just been damaged 37:22.410 --> 37:24.410 severely so this is all going to have a knock on effect 37:24.410 --> 37:26.290 this was out of the financial 37:26.290 --> 37:27.670 times here 37:27.670 --> 37:30.650 this is going to be probably the longest live stream I've ever done 37:30.650 --> 37:32.590 but this was out of the financial times 37:32.590 --> 37:34.670 European jet fuel supplies 37:34.670 --> 37:36.290 under threat as Iran 37:36.290 --> 37:37.870 war halts flows 37:37.870 --> 37:39.670 and we've got it here 37:40.470 --> 37:41.730 it's expected to fall 37:41.730 --> 37:43.610 about 420,000 37:43.610 --> 37:45.110 barrels a day this week 37:45.110 --> 37:48.030 that's down roughly 40% from last week 37:48.030 --> 37:49.150 so 37:49.870 --> 37:52.170 you saw how much it was already down last week 37:52.170 --> 37:54.050 is now down 40% 37:54.490 --> 37:55.810 now what did I say 37:55.810 --> 37:58.610 that the recommendation from the IEA 37:58.610 --> 38:00.090 was it was to cut 38:00.090 --> 38:02.430 flights by 40% 38:02.430 --> 38:04.070 and look at this 38:04.070 --> 38:06.030 they said this a week before 38:06.030 --> 38:07.110 this 38:09.990 --> 38:12.130 while airlines had until recently 38:12.130 --> 38:14.150 been supported by cargoes already 38:14.150 --> 38:15.250 en route from the Gulf 38:15.250 --> 38:17.910 which typically takes several weeks to arrive 38:17.910 --> 38:20.190 flows from the Middle East have now largely 38:20.190 --> 38:21.190 ceased 38:22.030 --> 38:22.410 keyword 38:23.170 --> 38:25.970 volumes have fallen 90% 38:25.970 --> 38:27.790 with just over one million 38:27.790 --> 38:29.970 barrels still in transit at the start of the week 38:29.970 --> 38:32.110 ok so the question now then is 38:32.110 --> 38:34.030 if they've fallen 90% 38:34.030 --> 38:35.450 and this is what's in transit 38:35.450 --> 38:37.690 and nothing has been coming out of the straight 38:38.510 --> 38:40.190 since the start of this war 38:42.610 --> 38:43.810 where are you going to get fuel 38:43.810 --> 38:45.730 where's the jet fuel going to come from 38:46.190 --> 38:47.990 I've actually got a business trip as well 38:47.990 --> 38:49.330 to the US in a couple of weeks 38:49.330 --> 38:51.330 I'm just dreading it 38:51.330 --> 38:54.050 I'd rather just be here at home 38:54.510 --> 38:55.510 where I can just 38:56.030 --> 38:57.910 everything is set up and ready 38:57.910 --> 39:00.270 but this trip is unavoidable 39:00.270 --> 39:02.310 I have to go on this business trip 39:02.310 --> 39:04.270 I've put it off for two years and I've got to 39:04.270 --> 39:05.470 I've got to do it now 39:07.610 --> 39:08.390 fuel price 39:08.390 --> 39:09.130 this is 39:09.130 --> 39:11.990 this is the last thing this is really important 39:11.990 --> 39:14.010 so this is called 39:14.970 --> 39:15.490 the 39:17.030 --> 39:18.850 let me get you the image 39:18.850 --> 39:20.370 I'm just trying to pull up the image 39:20.370 --> 39:22.070 but it's the Bab Al Mandab 39:22.070 --> 39:23.170 straight and this is 39:23.170 --> 39:25.090 the Houtis 39:25.090 --> 39:27.970 this basically carries 12% 39:27.970 --> 39:29.270 of global trade ok 39:29.270 --> 39:31.150 where's the image I'm trying to find you the 39:31.150 --> 39:32.450 here we go I've got it 39:33.610 --> 39:35.310 so this is it here 39:35.310 --> 39:37.470 ok so we've already got 39:38.690 --> 39:40.690 the straight of Hamoos closed off 39:40.690 --> 39:41.150 and now 39:41.150 --> 39:43.410 if we're going to have this other one closed off 39:43.410 --> 39:44.490 by the Houtis 39:45.070 --> 39:47.690 this is going to be absolute 39:48.910 --> 39:49.390 chaos 39:50.910 --> 39:52.990 it will get even worse 39:52.990 --> 39:54.090 than it is right now 39:54.790 --> 39:57.090 then that article I was just about to pull up there 39:59.690 --> 40:01.070 Australia is Australia 40:01.070 --> 40:03.350 asking people to work from home 40:03.350 --> 40:04.270 yes it is 40:04.270 --> 40:06.650 there's now one it's 40:06.650 --> 40:09.250 Victoria I think yeah Victoria is asking 40:09.250 --> 40:11.430 people to work from home now 40:11.430 --> 40:13.210 for two days per 40:13.210 --> 40:15.210 week and it's giving them the legal 40:15.210 --> 40:17.370 right to do it so employers 40:17.370 --> 40:19.310 can't say no and public 40:19.310 --> 40:21.330 transport fares have been waived in two of 40:21.330 --> 40:23.270 Australia's state to combat 40:23.270 --> 40:25.090 rising fuel prices 40:29.450 --> 40:31.250 I don't even know what else to say 40:31.250 --> 40:32.090 ladies and gents 40:32.090 --> 40:34.970 this is going to be 40:34.970 --> 40:35.870 probably one of the most 40:35.870 --> 40:38.650 the worst economic hits 40:39.050 --> 40:40.150 since the Great Depression 40:40.150 --> 40:42.810 I think it's probably going to be worse than the GFC 40:42.810 --> 40:44.610 the great financial crisis of 40:45.230 --> 40:47.110 2008 to 2012-13 40:47.110 --> 40:48.990 I do not see 40:48.990 --> 40:50.130 a way out of this now 40:51.530 --> 40:53.010 especially if it gets worse 40:53.010 --> 40:53.970 then 40:54.530 --> 40:56.790 you've really got to prepare for the worst now 40:56.790 --> 40:58.130 and you might say 40:58.130 --> 40:59.870 you might think 40:59.870 --> 41:01.790 people are 41:01.790 --> 41:04.750 sort of catching on to this now 41:04.750 --> 41:07.510 I still don't think the general public is aware 41:07.510 --> 41:09.050 if you're watching this 41:09.050 --> 41:10.990 if you've been watching me for the last four weeks 41:10.990 --> 41:12.650 since I've been warning about this 41:12.650 --> 41:13.870 four weeks ago now 41:14.450 --> 41:16.550 you are still way ahead 41:16.550 --> 41:17.650 of the general public 41:17.650 --> 41:19.790 they do not know 41:19.790 --> 41:21.290 what is about to hit 41:21.290 --> 41:23.890 and you can tell they're just acting 41:23.890 --> 41:26.210 they're just acting like everything's normal 41:27.790 --> 41:29.750 I just can't believe it 41:29.750 --> 41:32.270 I can't believe how everyone's acting like 41:32.870 --> 41:34.030 everything is normal 41:34.030 --> 41:36.070 and it's just going to be resolved 41:36.070 --> 41:37.010 very shortly 41:37.010 --> 41:38.730 food prices aren't going to go up 41:38.730 --> 41:41.190 you're just making this up to create content 41:41.830 --> 41:43.290 there's not going to be fuel shortages 41:43.290 --> 41:45.650 you're just making this up to make content 41:45.650 --> 41:47.670 there's not going to be energy 41:47.670 --> 41:48.470 lockdowns 41:48.470 --> 41:50.790 and Australia and New Zealand haven't got problems 41:50.790 --> 41:53.230 you're just making this up to create content 41:53.230 --> 41:55.490 this is genuinely what people are saying 41:55.490 --> 41:56.330 they 41:57.850 --> 41:59.690 I don't know what to say 41:59.690 --> 42:01.110 as long as you're protecting 42:01.110 --> 42:02.970 you're taking the right measures 42:03.510 --> 42:05.310 that's all that matters to me to be honest 42:05.310 --> 42:06.610 so thanks for watching 42:06.610 --> 42:09.550 this is officially the longest live stream now 42:09.550 --> 42:10.850 that I've ever done 42:11.970 --> 42:12.450 so 42:12.450 --> 42:14.510 yeah, new record today 42:14.510 --> 42:16.550 I think there will be a lot of new records 42:16.550 --> 42:19.070 coming up very shortly 42:19.970 --> 42:21.450 so that's about it for today 42:21.450 --> 42:23.030 ladies and gentlemen, thank you for watching 42:23.030 --> 42:24.850 appreciate you, take care, God bless 42:24.850 --> 42:27.050 God bless your family, see you on the next one