Get ready to take a flamethrower to the official narrative and learn what the elites don't want you to know
You're listening to the Tom Woods show
Hey everybody Tom Woods here it's episode
2747 of the Tom Woods show with John Hoffman who is a research fellow at the Cato Institute has been fantastic on
Everything that's been going on
With regard to the United States in Iran as you can see I'm not in my natural habitat here
I am actually at that. I don't want to say where but I'm in Las Vegas
Which is where my wife was born and raised and I'm in front of the drapes and back of me which are hypnotic
But I I assure you we are trying to persuade you through the strength of our arguments and not through
Hypnotic shapes in the background but but in any case John
I'm I'm glad to have you back and I read you on so-called X and you know
You're you're doing very very important work
You know this thing this conflict whatever it is with Iran
Changes so quickly that unless everything I do is a live stream, you know, I'm afraid I'm gonna be out of date
You know even six hours later or whatever
So so I want to see what we can do from a a bigger picture standpoint here to talk about issues
Related to this that will still be I think important even weeks months years from now
So for example
you've had a lot to say about the the so-called special relationship between the United States and Israel now
This is a topic that I feel like I've been forced to talk about. I mean I I
Guess I talked about it before but it wasn't top of mind. I have a million other things
I want to talk about so it's not that I'm
Obsessed with the topic. It's more that the topic has forced itself on me
You know current events have forced this on me
I don't really want to spend all my time on this but it really really is important
and I guess the the thing I want to ask you and and I want you to take your time with with this is
The debate well, there wasn't a debate up until recently but now there is a little bit of a debate
over the over whether that relationship is a net positive or negative for the United States and
Now some of the debate is you're an anti-Semite even for raising the question. All right
Well with the 5% of people who are capable of having an actual conversation about this
It has boiled down to the interests of Israel and the United States are in fact
Coordinate so it's a good thing that we have this
Relationship the other side says the interests of the United States and Israel
Diverge in major major ways and then of course
I suppose there's a third middle of the road position which would be that as with any pair of countries
Sometimes their interests are consonant with one another, but other times they diverge
of those three
options
Which one describes your view the best?
Well, let's start there. Which one described one two or three? I
Would say probably what describes my view the best is that US interests do not equal Israeli interests
These are two
distinct
Matters that we're talking about here. Sure. Can there be areas of overlap sure just like with any other country on planet earth?
but from a
baseline assumption
That US foreign policy is supposed to work on behalf of the security prosperity and freedom of the American people I
Do not see US interests as concomitant with with Israeli interests particularly today
Okay, so what I'd like to know is
What do you think of as?
The United States interests in the Middle East for instance in particular
What what are the United States is into what the United States like to see in them in the Middle East and and
vis-a-vis itself and other countries in the Middle East and what would Israel like to see in what specific ways
to their visions for
The Middle East diverge and and how does that translate into specific policies and maybe as you formulate that answer
Why don't we start in fact with?
What is it that makes this the quote-unquote special relationship with Israel, which is a term everybody uses
What is it that makes that?
Relationship special. Where did this come from?
But what's the origins of that and then maybe from there?
explore some of these other issues
Or so I think you know the US Israel relationship is special
it is unique it is unlike any other the United States currently has abroad and
You see this for example in the rhetoric of American officials
You'll never hear
American officials go to the lengths that they go to justify the US relationship
With any other country as they do with Israel
I mean the the term special relationship came from JFK that he called this a special relationship akin to
Only what we have with the United Kingdom
President Joe Biden used to say if we if there wasn't in Israel, we would have to create one
Nancy Pelosi said at an apex summit that if the US Capitol came crashing to the ground the only thing that would remain would be our
steadfast support for Israel
So, you know, that's pretty
astounding rhetoric and that's coupled with more than
$330 billion just for inflation in aid since World War two primarily military aid
in the slew of other, you know
Arms deals intelligence cooperation and so on and so forth
But I always get asked, you know, why is this relationship special and I and I point to three reasons
They're not mutually exclusive. They overlap. They reinforce one another
But the three reasons are broadly the first being normative the more cultural moral
Arguments, you know post World War two this feeling of guilt, you know, this association with this country in the Middle East, you know
This idea that the United States has grafted an American image on to Israel
It's a Western outpost in a barbarous land so to speak
You know, and there's this idea of Israel being the quote-unquote only democracy in the Middle East
So we need to support it. That's the more normative
Angle of things
The second one is the domestic political, you know, what we always hear about, you know, the Israel lobby and so on and so forth
It's you know, the constellation of different actors who try to push us foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction
And you're often not rewarded for for going against
That consensus and then the third is strategic the idea that American interests equal Israeli interests, you know
Lindsey Graham calls Israel our eyes and ears in the Middle East
Benjamin Netanyahu calls Israel America's unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Middle East and
It's that third one the strategic one where I usually focus in on and I argue that this is fundamentally not the case that
American interests in the Middle East
do not equal Israeli interests in the Middle East and
viewed from a perspective from a very limited perspective of American interests our interests in the Middle East are our
Limited and easy to accomplish I would say we have three the free flow of oil out of the region
preventing a terrorist attacks against the American homeland and
Preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon any one actor to dominate the region all
Of those pretty easy to achieve and don't require special relationships with Israel or or any other country in the Middle East
No
The United States has a particular
Reason for being and by the way that you another reason you way you can tell that I'm out of sorts and out of my normal
I think I have my my mic flag upside down this this goes to show it's like when the
Maybe it's because we're in wartime, you know or it's a desperate situation
That's like the when the US flag is hung upside down. This is the same here. That's a it's a distress signal that this thing is this way
But but but anyway, the United States obviously has
particular reason to dislike Al Qaeda and yet it seems like
The Israel does not have that same reason or that that same animosity toward it and is rather
You know has its own issues with Hamas and Hezbollah and so on it
Seems to prioritize that to the point where nobody seems to bat an eye that we have a former Al Qaeda guy now in
Syria, you know running Syria and this is just like oh well, you know, everybody has a bad background
You know, everybody has some things in his background with the way this was explained to the American public. Well, yeah, I suppose we all you know
You know, maybe maybe you've smoked a cigarette behind the high school or something
But you know, you don't really have that kind of a kind of a background
To what extent is can you elaborate on this? I mean because it does seem that the United States would pride
If it were pursuing its interests would prioritize particular
Bad actors in the Middle East in a different order from how Israel does
Absolutely, I would agree and this is a point that
Is a fantastic point because so many people gloss over this is
the different types of
Islamist inspired actors in the Middle East
The ones that we are opposed to and that threaten the United States are fundamentally different than those that threaten
Israel those that threaten us Al Qaeda and ISIS are part of a global
Transnational Salafist jihadist movement that would wants to target the so-and-so far enemy
Being the United States in the West for propping up dictators in the region meddling in the Middle East and stuff like that
the Islamist oriented groups that
Israel fights like Hamas and Hezbollah are are rooted in a local context. These are rooted in
Resistance primarily to occupation and they use terrorism and so on and so forth
But they are not part of this broader global Salafi jihadist movement as is Al Qaeda as is ISIS
These are we're talking about two different entities here, both of which appeal to Islam and try to use that to motivate
You know motivate people to join them and to do horrible things, but that
Ultimately have two very different political
objectives
Then if what you're describing for what the United States is interests in the Middle East would be like what what it wants to see
Happen what it doesn't want to see happen
There's obviously a difference between that and what Israel's goals would be and some of that has become clear in the course of this
War with Iran that it it looks as if it's very hard to read Donald Trump period this time or any other time
but as it looks as if he's trying to
wind things down or
It insert some some level of restraint into the equation
Then all of a sudden the Israeli government launches some in you know major infrastructure attack on Iran as if to say not so fast
you are not getting out so it's like
Obviously, it is not in the interest of the United States to be involved in a long in a prolonged
quagmire
but is
There a sense in which it is in the interest of Israel for the United States to be involved in a quagmire because the quagmire would
Continue to degrade
Iranian capabilities over time. There's no question about that
But at what cost well at no cost to Israel, but at great cost of the United States
So I say I would say Israeli foreign policy at the current moment and we can argue
You know how long this is held but Israeli foreign policy is focused on what I would call a very expansionist and aggressive
foreign policy and
Because of the special relationship
The the US Israel relationship. They're able to pursue this agenda
While being insulated from the political economic and military costs that are needed to pursue such an agenda the United States
So seduces this agenda, you know, whether it be through money whether it be through military force like we're seeing now in American lives
But the United States has a
And I think the war with Iran is is the perfect example
Look at those three interests that I mentioned that the United States has in the Middle East oil
terrorism and
hegemony on
The oil matter look at the global oil market right now
Nothing that we're doing vis-a-vis Iran secures that interest. In fact, it's the opposite oil is this is the largest disruption in the global energy market
In history according to the IAEA and this is because the United States went to war with Iran
Look at the counter-terrorism question. I'm never one to saber-rattle about, you know
Terrorism threat to the United States. I think it's been overblown for a long time and used to justify a lot of horrible policies
but
Things such as this
Generate the animosity towards the United States that feeds nefarious actors that want to target and hurt the United States
I mean the term blowback itself that the very term that we use all the time now blowback was coined by the CIA in
1953 when it was discussing operation Ajax in Iran to overthrow Muhammad Masada and reinstall the Shah
Talking about the possible ramifications negative ramifications for the United States. So these policies come with real risks
And you know to me as an American
What Israel is doing in the Middle East is first and foremost designed to advance that
Expansionist and aggressive agenda and I would argue that this agenda is not concomitant with American interests
I would argue that
The the very logic of the special relationship hinders our Washington's ability to recognize this
Whether they fear the political costs of going against it or whether they genuinely believe that you know subsidizing this this agenda
You know somehow benefits the United States
But I think it's you know going back to the original point that you had at the beginning of the show
You know this topic being forced on us
It really has because it's so blatant and it's so out in the front
I had friends who come to me who know what I do for a living who have zero interest in the Middle East or anything like that
And they say you know, hey, did you see what Israel did today?
And I was like, I didn't even know you like kept up with this
Yeah, but you know it has been forced on the American public because it's just so out in the open now
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Can you try to
We know the expression straw man somebody
argues against a position that nobody actually takes and then triumphantly declares victory
The opposite of that is to steal man somebody's position try to come up with the best strongest arguments for your opponent
Before you then refute them. So how would you steal man the argument?
That israel is in fact a strategic asset to the united states now as I say I hear this argument made
Not that often, but I do hear it made most of the time. It's just you're an anti-semite
For criticizing israel. I mean that really is what it's reduced to
I I do hear people saying oh, you're not necessarily an anti-semite for criticizing israel. Yeah
Quote not necessarily. It's just that everyone who does it gets called that
So I guess someday down the road a thousand years from now
Somebody will successfully criticize the government of israel without being called an anti-semite
But among people who actually want to have a discussion the three percent out there
They do make an argument that in fact at the the relationship with israel advances
Certain strategic goals of the united states or in in some way benefits the united states. Can you steal man that argument?
Absolutely and
Again, I think you hit on a critical point is this argument's often not made
It's often just taken as a given that that israeli interests equal american interests and people are, you know
Are often confused when you ask them to explain well, hold on
How are these interests aligned and and how do israeli actions advance american interests?
And that's where you know, you often get uh at hominem attacks or or you know
Just looks of confusion because they take it as as a given
But to steal man this argument. There's a couple things
The first and foremost thing that I think you will
That the advocates of this relationship will put forward is america is fight or israel is fighting america's enemies
They're fighting them over there. So we don't have to fight them over here
uh, that is typically what is
Part and partial to the strategic asset narrative if you will
That's always what I refer to it as is the strategic asset narrative
And this had been the case since the cold war. They'll point to, you know, combating arab nationalism and keeping the soviet union out of the middle east
They'll point to, you know, terrorist groups
in the
Uh, we already discussed how that's not really the case though because the islamist inspired groups that they they face are fundamentally different than ours
Um, and then they'll point to combating rogue states like iraq and iraq
um
I would argue
That many of these enemies even dating back to the cold war with the arab nationalism
Many of these enemies were either a product of the special relationship or exacerbated because of it
One of the chief reasons why the arab national states turned to the soviet union was because the united states emphatic embrace of israel
They were just this wasn't, you know, some crazy, uh out of nowhere thing. They were counter balancing against a superpower
Casting its weight behind their adversary. So they turned to another superpower
and the same thing with, uh
Or not the same thing, but you know, we discussed how the islamist inspired groups like hamas and hezbollah
root their agenda and, uh, uh, their focus in in in a local context
Uh, this is fundamentally different from the salafist jihadist movement that you know
Was spurred during the the the war in afghan the soviet invasion of afghanistan and which grew into
al-qaeda and these groups that came to target the united states
They're just two very different
things
um, and the third one rogue states like iraq and iran
uh
These iran in particular, I think is is the epitome of this is iran's ability to undermine american interests in the middle east
Are inherently limited. They pose no threat to the american homeland
The uh, the threat that that iran does pose to american interests is often exacerbated by our own militarism like we're seeing now
And these states are not problematic for us. They're primarily viewed as problematic for israel
Uh, so again, you're seeing this
Aquating of israeli enemies with with us enemies and you're you're equating
Uh, the american interests with with israeli interests
And I would also add
Probably the thing that I receive the most also as a pushback
Is the idea that israel provides the united states with critically needed intelligence. Um, I get that all the time. Yeah, uh, and
Again, I caution folks here because
The intelligence that they provide us is on israel's enemies groups like hamas and hisballah and stuff like that that are only
Relevant to the united states because of the special relationship
You would never hear the words hamas and stuff like that if it wasn't for the special relationship
So it's on their enemies
It behooves them to give us that intelligence if they view these actors as as so threatening
It would behoove them to share this intelligence with the united states
Third I would say
israeli supplied uh intelligence to the united states is often uh
Dramatically, uh inflated designed to push the united states in a
Specific direction, you know, the the intelligence is often inherently political
And then also, you know, I'm not a fan of the the national security state if you will
But let's not pretend ourselves that the united states doesn't have a global intelligence apparatus capable of surveilling just
You know just about anywhere
And does not need israel to be its eyes and ears in the middle east or elsewhere
All right, so I I've been wanting to I want to talk about this
topic in
In the future as well with other with other guests because as I said, this is the debate that nobody for some reason wants to have
Even though
This is a this is a practical question
You know, either the relationship is beneficial or it isn't, you know, and we you know, it seems like
Reasonable question to to ask I've been going back
Reading some of the history
Of the united states and israel back to the late 40s from the the very moment of truman
Harry truman
implicitly extending recognition to the new state of israel
Apparently 11 minutes after it officially, you know declared its independence
And from that moment
You can see
Specialists domestic policy advisors
Officials throughout the u.s. Government. I'm reasonably certain george marshal among them
All speaking about tremendous pressure that the president is under to take a particular
side
Well the israeli side, of course, but to
adopt particular policies vis-a-vis israel and some of that pressure
Well, especially early on
We read
Clark cliford who was a domestic policy advisor to truman
Saying just frankly saying you have a whole lot of
Jewish voters and they're going to want you to do this
And you have people in the state department other
U.s. Officials saying that is not the reason that the the commander-in-chief should be making decisions
It shouldn't be a matter of we have to balance domestic political considerations
We should do what's best for u.s. Interest and you see these words the word the words pressure
And influence used over and over again throughout the u.s. Government at various levels
Describing what's happening with the president and middle east policymaking that word pressure comes up over and over again
And sometimes they're talking about
On the domestic side because they think there's a voting bloc that votes in this way now parentheses today
I would say that it's not the case
That american jews vote as a bloc in favor of policies like the war in iran
I think to the contrary they would be more likely to vote against it
A whole lot of them. So that's not even clear that that that holds
It could still be that there are big donors and that sort of thing but in terms of domestic politics
It's not so obvious that an ultra ultra lakud position is is a is a winner politically
But but but there's that but as time goes on the word pressure then starts to be used to refer to
The government of israel exerting pressure on the united states not
domestic pressure groups as much as the government of israel and a lot of people will say well, how dare you
Accused donald trump of being influenced by the government of israel
You are depriving him of then they use this left-wing word agency
You know can't he make his own decisions and ultimately of course the buck does stop with him and doggone
He should be making his own decisions, but I think it's
We're capable of saying
Metaphysically, yes, he absolutely can make his own decisions, but in the real world
He does seem to have been put. I don't know what the nature of the pressure is
But it does certainly seem as if he's been influenced by israel and by certain
Hawks in in in the u.s. And I think in his case
He's uniquely susceptible to pressure because I think he's in in a sense like a george w. Bush that
He's not super learned. He's not particularly book smart
And so it's a case of it can be a case of whoever speaks to him the most recently
Gets his ear. I mean you saw that vivek ramaswamy talk to trump
Like that like one day before he gave a speech about
Cbdc central bank digital currencies trump hadn't known a thing about that the day before
Vivek tells him no no no we got to be dead set against it and he comes out completely against it the next day
So I think he is a very suggestible guy
I I don't think there's anything wrong with noting the obvious about it
Well, I would completely agree
I think we know now, you know trump is often
This might be oversimplifying it but often influenced by the last person he spoke to, you know, he's just
In him, you know somebody who is amenable to being influenced if you put it that way
But I want to go back to your point
uh
About pressure and so on because it's really important and we often are told, you know
Oh, this pressure doesn't exist so on and so forth
I for a project that i'm working on I I read through harry truman's memoirs
Uh, uh very long and dry. Um, but if I could read one, uh, uh sentence to you here where he's talking about, uh
Um the the pressure that he faced at the time for recognizing israel and he said
The facts were not only that were there pressure movements around the united nations unlike anything that had been seen there before
But that the white house too was subjected to a constant barrage
The persistence of a few of the extreme zionist leaders
Actuated by political motives and engaging in political threats disturbed and annoyed me
This is from harry truman's, uh, uh very long, uh memoirs. Um, and what we see is
And this is that that second, uh of those three reasons that I gave you why the the special relationship exists
And what makes it special this is the second part the domestic political part. Um, and it has as we
Progressed since 1948
Those three reasons have oscillated in terms of importance
So at the beginning of the us-israel relationship the strategic part wasn't even a thing
it was
purely, uh
This or 99 percent this idea that
Uh
There was a normative connection with israel and the domestic political part
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The the pickle that we seem to be in
and and here I do say we
because
You know, I don't say we when I say we bombed Iran because I don't feel like I bombed Iran, but
but we now
Are all in a bit of a problem here because
You know as I and I'm pretty sure you've pointed this out
At this point
The regime in Iran now
Is if anything more defiant
For obvious reasons
And is more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon for even more obvious reasons
than before and so
given that the
they say that the the
objectives of this conflict with Iran have been crystal clear from the beginning
But they've been anything but crystal clear as you and I both know
and it certainly sounded as if
one of the
Desired outcomes was the replacement of the current regime with some
Something else
We don't even know what the something else was but it would have to have to be one
That would absolutely not pursue a nuclear weapon and be friendlier to the west and to israel
That certainly seemed like that was what they were looking for
but now that
I think the u.s. Government and israel
Have got themselves in a position in which
in order to
Accomplish the goals that they at least implicitly seem to have set out for themselves
They would have to and get I don't know that that short of nuclear weapons
You could accomplish that at this point and at least the us doesn't want to be the pariah of the world
So probably would not go that route
So if you have to stop short of replacing the regime
Well, you've now made the regime worse. Yes, it's true. You've degraded their conventional military capabilities
But well, that's a short-term outcome. They'll rebuild those
So is the result now that we're just going to have a a war with iran every five years. I mean what
What could the future possibly look like in this situation?
Yeah, I would say going off the point first about this
This disconnect between, you know, we've seen many tactical successes
I don't think there was any doubt that the united states and israel could drop a lot of bombs kill a lot of people destroy a lot of stuff
um
But it was always a question of to what strategic end and of all the various
Justifications that we saw or heard for this for this war who took precedence the nuclear program and the regime
And on both ends, I think we have
Pretty clearly not reached those ends the the the highly enriched uranium is still in iranian hands
They will likely retain this after the war. You can't bomb away research and development know-how anyways. They they have the technological
Know-how of how to proceed with their program. That was why everybody really was stressing at political solution because that's really the only way to
Quote-unquote stop the program was a diplomatic solution
But the regime now is hardened. It is led primarily by a more extreme cadre the
IRGC guys much taba hamane the new supreme leader
There was actually a great deal of controversy around whether he was supposed to be
Supreme leader if we if if ayatollah hamane would have died
Not in the context of a war
I think we could be pretty safe in saying that much taba hamane would not have been supreme leader
He didn't have the religious credentials the islamic republic was founded on rejecting dynastic rule
But given the ongoing war the IRGC was able to essentially force this guy through
um
So you're now dealing with a more hardened regime that the the leader of this regime now much taba hamane has had his father
His mother his wife
And his daughter killed. Um, I don't think he's going to be ready to sit down with the united states for meaningful negotiations
If that's even possible, um
So it begs this question that you mentioned earlier about american and israeli interests
I would say the foremost american interest right now is not getting bogged down in a long
Prolonged war of attrition with iran that they are positioned better than we are to win
It's on their home turf for them victory is just survival
Uh, and we've already you know, we've already seen what can happen
You know given the impacts on the global energy market
And if trump doubles down it sends ground troops and so on and so forth
Then I think you're going to see that get a whole lot works
Uh because iran has been holding back in certain capacities in terms of going all out on energy infrastructure and so on in the region
If trump escalates they will likely escalate in kind
So I think the foremost interest for the united states is not getting bogged down in another costly middle east war
But from the israeli perspective
The israelis want the united states to continue, uh, uh destroying iran's conventional capabilities and in israel wants to be able to adopt
It's so called mowing the mowing the lawn strategy that it adopts in gaza and has uh
Lebanon which is this idea that will launch periodic military raids to continue degrading our enemy and keep them in a state of chaos
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, and and this is something that a lot of us raise the alarm
About prior to the war even starting because we said hey
The iranis hear this rhetoric right like they hear people say like, you know, the israeli officials talk about mowing the lawn in iran
they hear this
And iran is going to want to demonstrate to the united states and to israel that you can't do that here
And the only way to do that is to inflict pain on
Uh, the united states and on israel and for iran
Uh, they're the key of their strategy right now is to raise the political and economic costs on donald trump of this war
Primarily through the energy market until he feels that the uh feels the heat needs to back down
Um, and in that sense the iranians have the advantage here
Uh, it seems that washington was quite unprepared for this even though just about anybody could tell you
You know that iran was going to target energy infrastructure first and foremost and go after the straight of four moves
But now we're in this, uh strange position where
trump wants to you know, see some sort of victory, but also, uh, not
You know in an ideal world get out before things get a whole lot worse
and
If I had the ear of the president what I would say is take the tactical victories that you've achieved
And get out try to make a deal with iran here
Recognize that the only options that you have primarily further escalation are not going to yield any further benefit
You we've reached the point of diminishing returns
And do not fall for the trap of a prolonged war with iran
It's hard to see what more
What more you could get at this point and as I say you walk away and a critic
could say
Well, yes, we know as you say we know you're physically capable of dropping bombs. Nobody needed that demonstration
You could do that and that could harm the conventional uh capabilities of of iran
but
You have not made it impossible for them to uh, or you have not
installed a regime
That you could be assured would never conceivably
uh
Have a nuclear weapon. It's it's it's still quite conceivable. You have an even more hostile regime now
So it's hard to walk away from that and say
We're better off than we were before
Obviously and and and not to mention
By all accounts other than whit cough and cushioner
It seems to me by all accounts
there was
A you know if you're concerned about nuclear weapons in the possession of iran
There was a pretty good deal developing on the table
such that the
Uh, oh the omani representative, you know, who is helping facilitate the the talks
Went and talked to jd vance try to explain to him
What was going on that it looked like it was a genuine breakthrough and and incidentally you can say
Oh, well, I've
You can say a lot of things about iran like. Oh, well, they can't be trusted to keep this or that
But really which which is the side that can't be trusted by the way
I was I'm here in las vegas. I was waiting to get my rental car the other day
So I'm stupidly reading the news on twitter. You know, which is where I you know
I I get a lot of newsletter ideas. I read what people I I follow right
And and somehow I was in this thread
Where in which somebody described iran as 90 million radicalized islamists
And I thought it is unbelievable
What americans have allowed themselves to be
Snookered into belief. I mean even the official position of the u.s. Government is not
That iran is 90 million radicalized islamists
I don't know where that came from. I don't even think mark levin thinks that because remember after all
Initially, they wanted to quote liberate these people which means they believe at least some fraction of them
Uh, it are not quote radicalized islamists if you look at or go to tehran
That is not what you encounter
But yet for some reason I've somebody put it really well that we have a a chunk of america
That is so, uh
Misled that they brainwash themselves. They propagandize themselves with arguments that our own
Uh, it isn't isn't even making but anyway, I'm throwing too much at you at once, but it for some reason that
That it enraged me so much that this person is so out of it
And yet that person has just as much of vote as you do john hoffman
Oh
Iran is ideologically diverse, you know, uh, there's a lot of genuine opposition to the regime and the people
A lot of people do not want clerical rule
Of course, the the regime does have a certain base within the country
but
The story of iran for anybody who studies iran will tell you what the the very first thing is diversity
I mean even the 1979 revolution itself was not a predetermined islamist victory
There was a lot of competing factions nationalists communists
Uh, just you know ordinary folks middle class. Um, you know
So this idea that we're up against a country of 93 million
Radicals who want to get a a nuke tomorrow to wipe out every american is just
Beyond the path. Let me ask you a personal question. Uh
I always want to know why people wind up doing what they do what gets them in the position they're in and
In your life and so here you are of
Research scholar in in foreign policy
Now is that an interest that you developed?
Uh in school was it an interest you developed because you were influenced by some great thinker
Was it an interest you developed because of an event that occurred that made you think
A lot of people have really bad misconceptions about foreign policy
And I want to contribute to overturning those I'm just curious about what was it in your particular case
It's hard to pin it on any one
Individual factor, but when I was when I was in high school, you know at my generation
I'm 30 years old. We grew up only
Yeah, yes, don't let the lack of hair
Fool you, uh, well, I mean, I don't know when I hear re you know, you're a research fellow
I don't know for some reason that that there's so much dignity to that that I assume you have to be 40 to be
Okay, no, so I I finished I finished my phc program early. Thankfully, um
But you know for me it was growing up primarily in post 9 11 america and being sold a bill of goods
That just when you start pulling at the threads of these narratives, they just collapse almost immediately and you know, I
went off to to
George mason and started studying this and had some great professors
And you know, it was one of the few things I was good at
And then George mason offered for me to stay and do a master's in a phd program and you know to me
Preserving the american republic
Requires more perhaps than anything else
Curtailing the warfare state abroad and this is something I genuinely believe in and it's something that you know
the kato institute believes in and
It was kind of you know, when I left my phd program and came to kato
It was it was a a great home for me to push for a foreign policy that works on behalf of the american people
not elites in washington
She so you must have been five or six
Uh when 9 11 happened
Yes, six
so
Now I was
When it's not the same thing obviously, but I remember being eight years old when john lennon was shot
And I came home from school and my mother told me all about it
And I vaguely knew john lennon was in the Beatles, but it didn't really mean anything to me
But I still distinctly remember my mother telling me about that and that was of much less significance than 9 11
As a six-year-old, I'm just curious like were they talking about it in school
Did they know how to talk to six-year-olds about something like that?
The only thing that I remember from that day was school ending us getting out early
um
and
My parents being very concerned because we had family members who lived in and around dc and up in new york, so
That's really all I
remember from that day
But I think growing up
hearing these narratives
About you know existential threats in the middle east or you know the narrative that we just spoke about you know
90 million islamist extremists in iran ready to you know come at our throats
it
For me these narratives were often put forward or the special relationship with israel put forward and just taken as a given
Uh, nobody you know growing up especially you know challenge these narratives wanted to get you know behind the real roots of the problems
And to me it was just far too simplistic
Uh, and I think we see now today the united states
Continuing a lot of the mistakes and failed policies that led to you know previous disasters
but
I think the american people if washington isn't changing
I think the american people from the bottom up are starting to recognize the disasters of us foreign policy
And I think are truly my generation and the generation below me are truly set up
Yeah, I understand that I I'm telling you and I sorry. I don't mean to sound like your dad
but
But I you know I was I was already teaching at the time of 9 11
And I'm I'm telling you the before and after
it really was a
It was a major change
I think in the psyche of americans because
We really had had this kind of glorious independence from the rest of the world in the sense that we had the
You know, we had the two oceans the whole thing
You know and and then suddenly this radical vulnerability appeared on the on the scene
And at that time of course a lot of americans could not for the life of them fathom what was going on
Uh virtually none of them knew anything about
The the recent history of the past several decades that would have involved a foe
That despised the u.s regime that much that it would carry out an atrocity like that
and
That was a moment where um
I remember thinking to myself well
I mean for for all we knew this was going to keep happening. There were going to be more attacks
You know, we how how were we to know?
But it really was was a question of well now the question is has to be posed to america has to be posed
It's either it's either uh live like this
And maintain your empire or be a be a republic again be a normal country
And you know, there's no guarantee that bad guys won't still come after you but um
The the the history of u.s involvement abroad over the past 75 years is one of
Massive goodwill toward the united states in the middle east massive goodwill being not only squandered
But completely inverted to the point where uh, the u.s is is viewed so negatively
in place after place
that
Yes, I understand if
If somebody did something bad to me or bombed, you know my town
I wouldn't just go out and shoot random people in response to that I get that
Like that is an alien way to to handle situations like this. I totally get that. I don't excuse that in any way
But what but what I was thinking at the time was
It's not a matter of excusing it. It's a matter of just knowing this is going to happen
If you play the empire game, this is going to happen
And so the question is is it worth it to the american public not to policy makers not to
War profiteers not to foreign countries. Is it in the interest of the united states?
To to play the empire game when we know what the collateral damage of it of it is apart from the the expense
the loss of life
The the pointlessness of it all the the opportunity cost all the things that could have been built
But it weren't built because the money was squandered at some point
We have to have this conversation
Do we want an empire or not and even after 9 11 in the years that went by
Nobody sat down with america and spoke frankly and honestly and said
If we want an empire
They're going to be costs
It was I guess I guess ron paul came the closest to in effect putting that to america
How much do you really want this empire doesn't doesn't benefit you in any way the british empire did not
Benefit the average person in britain in any way other than making him feel puffed up and proud of himself. Well, that's cool, but
But in terms of your pocketbook, this is not helping you
We don't get these conversations because we're never spoken to frankly by anybody in the regime and why would we be
We're spoken to in cartoons. We're spoken to in ways that flatter us
Oh, the only reason that our government might be disliked around the world is that we're all just super awesome
And they're envious of us. It's all just crazy nonsense
It turns out the rest of the world doesn't like hillary clinton any more than we do, you know
Oh, I mean you're you're not wrong and
The only thing that you know, a lot of times i'm asked in interviews, you know
About the war and stuff like that and it is all very, you know depressing and a lot of doom and gloom
But I think there is room for for optimism if we look at polls in the united states
I think the american people
Yeah, like I think this is
Coming to the forefront
whereby americans are fed up with this
They they recognize this disconnect between uh, uh empire and republic and
If it and I think this whole ethos of of america first, you know
If american interests are the safety
Prosperity and freedom of the american people
I believe empire undermines all three of them and I think the american people are starting to agree
It creates enemies faster than we can deter them
It squanders our resources and it grows the executive and and the overall, you know
National security state here at home to the detriment of our civil liberties
so
and I think
We're starting to see the formation of a very interesting coalition left and right and you know academic nerds like myself
Uh who are starting to push back and are are starting to get real traction
I guess the the remaining problem is that even though you're right about the the changes in attitudes and what the public opinion polling shows
It's it's like it doesn't matter which side you pull the lever for because you're still going to get those policies
And it's the the question is are these shifting?
Are these trends in public opinion ever going to manifest themselves in real life in real policy making?
And I mean maybe eventually
But but who knows how long that'll take
No, that's the problem is is you know, the political capital is not behind this
Uh new way of thinking yet, uh, I think we're moving in that direction. I get asked all the time
You know, when do you think this change will happen? And I I mean it's truly impossible to know
but the more that
You know that that the american people are able to put forward these alternative ideas challenge
These conventional narratives not be pressured into silence and you know to really
Uh question what should be america's role in the world? What are we after? What does it mean?
Uh to be an american and so on and so forth
I think more people are asking those questions today and
I'm hopeful in the sense that this leads to better policies even if
We're fighting an uphill battle and it takes a while. I think now this constituency cannot be ignored
John, how do people follow you?
Sure, so they can follow me uh on twitter my twitter handle is at hoffman h o f f m a n the number eight and then john j o m
All right, so i'll link to that tom was a comm slash 27 47
um
Well, I appreciate your time as I say I wanted to talk about things that
Would still be of importance even if by the time people hear this the whole thing has somehow miraculously wound down
These are still open questions that we're going to have to reckon with one way or another so john hoppin. Thanks so much
Thanks tom always an honor
Thank you ladies and gentlemen
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