Suddenly, the media is covering how expensive our food is going to get because of this conflict.
Let's take a look at it.
And before we even start, what we see was the cutoff of the Straits of Hormuz is more
of a siege.
You just have to go back to, you know, prior times of warfare, 1200 AD, 800 AD, 2,000
years prior, and you would rope off an area not to allow supplies in or out.
But to now, these forts for a better term are what we would call countries, regions.
Same principles apply.
Cut off the roots, in or out, and eventually somebody has to collapse.
Which brings me here to Lulu Group International, airlifting 80,000 kilograms, about 160,000
pounds of fruits and vegetables from India to the UAE, because they can't get food
in by ship.
They're breaking the blockade or trying to...
Kuwait also announcing a ban on exports of all types of food commodities.
Well, they can't get it out of their region anyway, so kind of fruitless, no pun intended
with the food and the fruit, to even say such a thing.
But you can see the trajectory of it.
March 6th, just a couple days back, Dubai only had 10 days of food at the present
time of this video.
They have eight days of food.
So I guess we're going to watch in real time to see if a modern nation will
be starved out or how the people will behave is more of a thing here.
This is a...
Prices can go up, things are going to get cut off, but the main takeaway is how are
people going to be cordial or not to each other, depending on what nationality
you're from?
Are you local?
Are you from international?
Are you a different region?
Because remember, the UAE has seven different emirates, kind of like, you know,
our America's 52 states, well, they have seven different emirates.
Well, they all come together, cohesively to work together, whether one,
you know, Abu Dhabi take the lion's share of everything, is Dubai going to get it?
So this is the main thing to look at.
How quickly systems will fail when the food stops and how the breakdown
of law will stop when the food stops.
This is going to be a case to look at, and then you can just forecast it
out on how other nations will behave.
And once you get better metrics of how much petrol they have, how much food
they can import or not, you can almost predict the chaos, nation by nation.
Over here on the conversation, straights or mous, food security is an immediate risk,
but wider shortages, global price increases for your food.
Like they're starting to hit on it now.
They have to because prices are already starting to go up, petrol's going up.
They need to start in our beginning to really put the danger of all this in context
of Arabian Gulf business insight.
If you're looking for Middle East business news, this is the one for you,
AGBI conflict threatens food supplies as well as oil.
And that turns into gasoline, diesel, farm machinery, planting the fields
or not, and also natural gas for the fertilizer.
But first they look at the dates.
You know, the Middle East is a huge producer of dates, so check out this different variety.
I myself am a fan of a little more of a caramelized color, the caramel color of it all.
I find the really bright red and the very dark black ones a little bit off-putting for my taste,
but if you're going to hit somewhere in the zone that's yummy across the planet,
go for the golden honey color, you can't go wrong with that.
So the distant messaging is beginning for anybody who's aware to hear.
We went through COVID that wrecked our food prices.
Everything skyrocketed and it has never come down.
So the thing about the price you were paying for your food in 2016,
which again was a skyrocketing leg up from the 2008 financial crisis.
If we were to compare 2000, let's say two or 1999 food prices with today's,
oh, you would just roll over and faint off your chair if you saw the actual rises in it.
But each of these contagions, energy-driven and then global-driven as well with an event
and then the food price, once they go up to that price, they never come back down.
Have you noticed that?
Oh, yeah, everything's going to go back to normal.
None of the prices did.
And this time when it goes leg up, it's going to go like a rocket leg up.
It's not going to just, you know, stair step up.
It's going to go vertical with an engine on it.
And that's the thing that's really kind of terrifying over with the 50,000-foot view of this.
Another two weeks and we're going to start to ignite that rocket in vertical pricing.
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How the war could impact Canada's fuel prices and energy sector.
Again, they're misleading, but then further in the article, they give it to you with those with eyes to see.
Diesel being used in the production and transportation of food is going to be drastically impacted.
Now, for Canada and the United States, we're very lucky.
A lot of oil production, but the rest of the world, not so much except the Middle East.
And they're having their own set of problems as you can see.
30% of all chemical fertilizers come out of the Middle East and they use natural gas in the production of it.
So why the Iran conflict could hit Canadian grocery bills?
Boom, right on it.
These are independent journalists telling you this.
So maybe our news this time will come from independent journalism that outmaneuvers the carefully narrated
so you don't panic mainstream food professor conflict in the Middle East unfolding at a particularly bad time
as Canada's industrial carbon tax is set to increase again in April.
Attention persist beyond four to five weeks.
We can expect additional upward pressure on food prices.
Like nobody wants to hear that and they're telling you exactly when it is,
but more forecast or what that is so far out of most anything I've seen.
It's going to be hitting within two weeks or so that the first passed down cost are coming to you within two weeks,
maybe three, you know, by five weeks, you're going to go to the supermarket and be like,
I can't believe the food went up again, Gertrude, one of those things.
So everything is all about food from now on because if it becomes the most expensive thing in your life and oil,
then really what are you going to have left over to pay your mortgage?
This is the precarious part of civilization in itself.
And, you know, like myself a fan of history going back over periods of history where there was collapses
and our modern era is the last 200 years comes to this point where nobody can pay for anything.
They get frustrated to get angry and they lash out government usually.
Why can't you take care of us?
Why don't we have this?
Why can't you guarantee that we used to have it now you have lost your mandate to rule over anybody.
You can't even guarantee the basics.
People get angry when all they do is work just to eat and just to pay for mortgage.
No money for fun.
You're going to have to cancel your Netflix, no travel, no beach time.
Can't take the kids on a holiday.
You're just going to work for food and you're going to work for your mortgage.
What kind of life is that?
Wow.
Building up the American Dream White Picket Fence.
Well, that can of paint is going to cost you 30 times more because there's lubricant oil base in there.
So it's already game on in a few of these places here.
Petrol prices are rising everywhere.
Gasoline for you in America.
Everywhere.
So it looks like South Africa importing 85% of its crude from the Middle East is already getting smacked.
Food price increases, petrol increases.
But interestingly, they used to refine their own diesel products and they used to have their own refineries.
But wait, that was outsourced.
Also off of Toby Ma.
Crop yields are going to fall by 50% if we can't get the fertilizers out.
So I'd like you to read that first paragraph carefully with me here.
It says the crisis could surpass the global food price shocks caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
30 million tons went offline if you didn't know that.
30 million tons of grains went offline because that's how much Ukraine produced.
And the energy and fertilizer costs soared.
Driving food prices to record levels.
CEO of European fertilizer, Giant Yara, emphasized crop yields.
Crop yields, crop yields.
50% down.
That's more than gigantic.
That is the dissolving of everything you know in this world.
We couldn't have a carrying capacity of 8 billion people on the planet.
Or 7 now, excuse me.
If we can't grow the food, you can't feed people.
Like there's limits to growth, as was stated by the Club of Rome.
I truly believe that there are limits to growth and we are absolutely smacking head on into a wall of one right now.
It was so dependent on very intercomplicated supply chains from one place to another,
peace time conditions.
Everybody had guarantees this, that and the other.
30% of everything that we rely on in terms of natural gas produced fertilizers is gone off line
until we get that straight back open.
You're not flying 60,000 tons of fertilizer on an airplane out of the area.
This is not happening.
So the reality is setting in.
I know a lot of luckily, as the way the ag business works,
since we're into the seizing of the fields like these guys in America at least
have already bought everything they need for this year's planning for fertilizer.
Now, the top up applications when it comes, like I said, July,
when they start to put these different herbicides down
and whatever else fungicides with some kind of funky fungus going on,
whatever it is that would be used in modern agriculture.
The beginnings of it is already paid for.
Just when we get into like that July
and then begin to throw some phosphorus on there,
the sort of thing as you get in the flowering stage of whatever plant.
Will we have it this year?
Because if we don't and we don't have particular types of fertilizers
at that mid-growth stage period,
then our crop yields decline tremendously.
They're not going to go to zero,
but a 50% decline in world global agriculture would,
I don't know, that would be the reverberation as large as the collapse of the Roman Empire.
And it would happen so fast.
That's the thing, like the speed at which this thing is moving
is faster than anything in human history,
because we've never been this interconnected.
We've never had this many interconnections of supply chains
and very delicate movements of goods from one point to another
all relying on services and electricity and peace deals
and interoperable payments,
which is now switching over to like a stablecoin issuance
and different distributed ledger technologies
to speed that up, which used to take days before it took months,
now it's days, now it's going to be minutes or seconds.
Like this is all just this big movement on a board in real time
and it is going to come on wound as fast.
Food is going to get expensive.
If this continues, I'm not saying it will, I'm just saying game it out.
I was looking at Polymarket today
and they had a 50-50 chance
at the end of April that this thing might subside.
Okay, let's do the math.
We got, what, three more weeks left in March.
We've got four weeks in April.
That's seven weeks.
That's so past the complete fall-off-a-cliff danger zone
that anybody's talked about.
We would be in a completely new world
if this thing drags on until the end of April.
I'm just saying this, not to scare you,
but just your threat assessment should be extremely high
right now.
You need to think about how to take care of your families
and what you are going to do.
If this thing continues, you know, food is going to get pricey
and this whole thing, digital rationing cards
and all this technology that's available now
for us to get it.
Like would you jump through the hoop to get a retinal scan,
fingerprints, biometric facial scan,
your digital ID to provide food for your family or yourself?
And do you think we're going to be kumbaya
share with everybody evenly?
I'm going to absolutely say not a chance in the world.
So who's going to get the 70% remaining
of available fertilizers split across the planet
because whoever has the fertilizer has abundant food?
The same yields that we were used to,
which means their society continues,
their country continues,
while others that experience 50% declines
and crop yields collapse.
How do you think that'll be split up, do you think?
And now are we going to use fertilizer
as some kind of leverage point, thumb screws?
Oh, by the way, crude went up to 119
and then it dropped back down to 100.
So here's your CPI inflation rates
when it hits certain benchmark pricing.
We've already screen pressed that 110 up to, you know,
around 120.
So inflation is going to run probably hot
at 3.5% minimum, at least on paper.
So you definitely expecting massive food price increases
on this.
And when everything crashed, and this is a historical,
it's pretty much these things always go up in price
when there's some sort of contagion with the world war,
whether it's a great depression
or whether it's financial contagion, 2008, whatever.
Gold, silver food, treasury bonds.
Gee, I wonder if food prices are going up.
I'm going to say yeah.
I'm just going to guess, wild guess.
And on a moment of Zen, act as if what you do
makes a difference because it does.
It truly does.
Please help people who are in different types
of stress situations at the moment.
And that's the way you should be too.
Don't buy into the chaos.
Just be prepared.
This whole video is not about scaring anybody.
It's about getting you in the mind frame
of those movements you do make.
That really does matter for other people around you,
whether you're in a panic mode
or if you're like the super smooth thing,
we need to execute.
Boom, boom, boom, boom.
We're going to get this garden out.
We're going to get this done.
We're going to get that done.
We've got a plan.
We're going to go into mode.
Every with this is our timeline here.
That's way better.
I want to be on that part.
I want to stay with that person.
Instead of somebody biting their chew and all,
they're saying, oh, I was going to have to go.
You have to understand the threat in front of you.
Food prices are going to go up.
I was reading some reports saying,
even if it stops tomorrow,
it's going to take two months
to unwind this ball of yarn
that's mixed in on itself
to get all the tankers and all the freighters
and all the cargo and all the food
and everything else back into a smooth motion.
Two months, even if it stops tomorrow,
every day continues that ball of yarn
just gets stretched tighter
and a bottle of wine could work in there too.
But we need the yarn to come on spun.
This is going to take some time.
So even in your assessment of how long it might last
when it ends,
when it ends is not the end of, hey,
it's going to go back to normal again.
I remember being told,
we were going to go back to normal again too.
When do we hear that?
Oh, yeah.
Didn't everything, nothing went back to normal.
So the same thing,
the same situation is going to occur like
this conflict is going to end one way or another.
When it does,
nothing is going to go back to normal.
Nothing.
As much as COVID,
nothing went back to normal,
nothing's going back to normal after this.
So you realize this is a life altering event
for every human on the planet as much as COVID was.
We are not,
we're going into whatever territory we move into,
it's where we move and where we stay.
So as I said, later skaters,
I'm on the beach.
Please leave your comments below
and in your mind,
you need to take yourself out of the chaos
into the beach with a plan.
And part of that is,
it's a story about food.
And it's cheaper now than it's ever going to be,
especially with this stuff moving forward here,
four week food supply.
They got three day,
seven day food supplies.
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air,
aluminum,
organic seeds for any grow zone on the planet.
You're going to need to get your gardens on seriously.
This time,
I mean,
COVID was bad enough,
but this is going to make that be looking pretty small.
So you might want to hang on
to a clothesline and a hurricane
and grab a bag of seeds while you're drifting in the wind.
I do appreciate you watching.
Please share with your friends and families.
It's a super important discussion to have with them.
Like what do you do when your food prices
just keep going up and up and up and up.
As long as this conflict keeps going on and on and on and on.
When this thing ends,
it's still going to be months until it sorts itself out.
So two different variables go on,
link to the conflict
and then the unwind after it finishes,
so you can get a good gauge of the impacts
that will affect you and your families,
all of us everywhere on the planet.
There's nowhere to run from this event.
So I'll see you next time.
Bye for now.